DayTrading: Czwartek 15.11.2012

[crok.]

Zrozum tu Żółtka

ciekawe czy beda chceili nasi wrocic na 102 jeny ?

[molmomas]

eduardo poleci zaraz bo się "przyjaciele " zza Odry nie spisali

[Nowy123]

08:00 EUR Niemiecki PKB (raz w roku) 0.4% 0.8%
08:00 EUR Niemiecki PKB (raz na kwartał) 0.2% 0.2%

-- Dodano: czw 15-11-2012, 9:12 --

1h RGR na Edziu ?

[Seti]

no nie jest chyba tak źle

[expedient warzywniaka]

hellou
noc udana. teraaz znow zacznie sie kombinowanie czy juz bedzie grzecznie

[Nowy123]

Japonia nowe wybory i temat interwencji na jenie

[molmomas]

no nie jest chyba tak źle

Tak, ale jeżeli główny motor napędowy w strefie euro szwankuje, to wywnioskować można jedynie to że może powoli być "fucked up" no

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: A full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic kicks off at
0630GMT, when French third quarter GDP data is set for release. Further
early evidence over the state of the European economy will be offered at
0700GMT, when Germany's Q3 GDP data will cross the wires. Further French
data is expected at 0730GMT, when the French October Banque de France
retail survey is due for release. Back to eurozone growth data, and
Spanish Q3 GDP numbers are set for release at 0800GMT. Eurozone speakers
start from 0800GMT, when German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler gives
his budget speech in parliament,in Berlin. Next up on the GDP releases
is Italy, with Q3 numbers expected at 0900GMT. At 0945GMT, ECB Governing
Council member Joseph Makuch gives a presentation at a conference on
'European solutions to the economic crisis', in Bratislava. With the
individual nation growth numbers now out, overall EMU Q3 GDP data will
cross the wires at 1000GMT, the same time as EMU October final HICP.

GREECE: Almost half of Greek companies ahve cut salaries and jobs in the
past 12 months, eKathimeini reports.

IRELAND: Fitch Ratings late Wednesday revised the outlook
on the Republic of Ireland's (Ireland) ratings to Stable from Negative
and affirmed its rating at 'BBB+'. "The affirmation and revision of the
Outlooks to Stable from Negative reflects Ireland's continued progress
with its fiscal consolidation, external adjustment and economic
recovery, as well as the sovereign's improved financing options". Fitch
said the main factors that could lead to positive rating action are: 1.
A smooth and full return to market financing, robust economic growth and
fiscal performance in line with Fitch's forecasts, in particular a
declining debt ratio over the medium term 2. A substantial cut in the
public debt through an EU agreement to share the burden on legacy costs
of bank recapitalisation, although this is not Fitch's expectation.

FRENCH PRESS: The German chancellor Angel Merkel is the greatest
guarantor for representing her fellow Germans' interests vis-a-vis the
"Club Med" (Greece/Spain/Portugal/Italy), writes Le Figaro. For Southern
Europeans, on the other hand, she is held responsible for enforcing
asphyxiating austerity measures, teh paper says. Merkel is convinced
that parts of the German economic model can help redress the economies
of some of Germany's neighbours, which she is fighting hard to enforce.
However, she knows that in order to restore a European equilibrium, a
French-German compromise was always necessary, says the paper. She needs
a strong French partner to be able to build this consensus - this is why
she is so concerned and worried about the situation in France, Le Figaro
analyses.



UK: UK data is released at 0930GMT, with both October Retail Sales and
the SMMT Auto Production numbers due. In terms of other retail sales
data, the British Retail Consortium's October data, based on sales
values, were weak but the CBI's volume based readings were strong and
the official data have had a firm underlying trend, with 3m/3m sales up
1% in September. Unsurprisingly, given the mixed private sector survey,
analysts' forecasts are widely dispersed. Set aside the monthly
volatility, however, and most of the evidence suggests consumer high
street spending is picking up.

UK: In its annual credit report, Moody's Investors Service says that the UK's
Aaa government debt rating, and current negative outlook, continue to be
underpinned by significant structural strengths, but cautions that the
government's efforts to achieve fiscal consolidation and reduce debt over the
next few years are being hampered by weaker economic prospects as well as by the
risks posed by the ongoing euro area sovereign debt crisis. Moody's will revisit
the Aaa rating and outlook in the first few months of 2013 to assess the impact
of these challenges and of the government's upcoming Autumn Statement, it said.

UK PRESS: The Independent warns of a looming "armageddon" in the
corporate bond market, with billions of pounds at risk as analysts warn
of a building bubble in the sector.



US: (1) The long US calendar also gets under way at 1330GMT, with a
string of releases. Initial Jobless Claims for the November 10 week are
released, and are expected to rise 20,000 in the November 10 week.
Claims have been gradually trending down but recent distortions have
made it difficult to get a clear read. Hurricane Sandy which hit the
East Coast last week will likely continue that trend. The October
Consumer Price Index is also out, and are forecast to rise a modest 0.1%
in October as declines in gas prices were likely offset increases in
food prices. Core CPI is forecast to also rise 0.1% which would be
consistent with the previous two months. Also due at 1330GMT is the
November NY Fed Empire State Survey. The NY Index is expected fall
slightly to a reading of -6.2. The index did improve some in October and
the manufacturing sector appears to be healing, but Hurricane Sandy
caused significant power outages and may have damaged some factories.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.2735, the rate having slipped
off post FOMC spike highs of $1.2780 after headlines in the statement
said a number of committee members favoured more quantitative easing
after the end of Operation Twist. Euro-dollar opened heavy in Asia and
slipped on large aussie-dollar sales, the rate however failed to trigger
stops through $1.2710. Dip demand led the recovery and extended pullback
efforts to $1.2745 after Fed Williams' comments. Trade continued flat
tied to a narrow 10 pip range ahead of the European open. On the topside
offers seen into $1.2780 (14 Nov NY spike high), through here opens
strong offers at $1.2800, ahead of key techs at $1.2812 (200-day ma).
The 5-day ma provides support at $1.2721, behind here and stops set
through $1.2710/00. Traders look ahead to data in the US with main
highlights from CPI and Initial Jobless Claims, released at 1330GMT.


CABLE: Cable bounced to $1.5875 on release of the FOMC minutes that
revealed a number of committee members favoured more quantitative easing
after the end of Operation Twist. The move was short lived and the rate
ground lower throughout the US afternoon to close at $1.5845.
Euro-sterling closed at stg0.8040, the rate having recovered off
pullback lows of stg0.8035 after earlier posting a high of stg0.8049.
Cable opened heavy in Asia and traded through the 200-day ma to lows of
$1.5837, before the rate lifted in tandem with euro-dollar's extended
recovery to $1.5855. The pair settled in a tight 10 pip range ahead of
the European open. Support seen on the downside at $1.5820, stronger
behind at $1.5805/00 ($1.5806 - 55-week ma). Tech resistance seen at
$1.5864/66/78 (Jun Rising Trendline, 5-day ma, 100-day ma).
Euro-sterling remained in consolidation mode with trade tied to a narrow
stg0.8030-44 Asian range. Data light in the UK today with highlights
from Retail Sales, released at 0930GMT.


Dollar-yen continues to trade just below the former 38.2%
retracement of the Oct-Nov rally, initial resistance at Y79.64 alongside
the Aug high and 200-DMA at Y79.66/70. Bulls will aim for a break above
initial res, however daily studies remain bearish while weekly studies
are bullish, albeit slowing. Further res seen around Y79.76-88, the Nov
7 low and Tenkan line. Initial supp seen at Y79.32, the 50.0% level.

Euro-yen dips into the Ichimoku cloud and tests the top as
resistance and has already moved above. Initial resistance seen at
101.57, the 55-DMA, above here is the Tenkan line, former 23.6% level
and 200-DMA around Y102.10/12/15. However, daily studies remain bearish,
albeit are losing momentum. We note that weekly studies are firmly
bearish, initial support seen at Y100.59, the 38.2% of Jul-Oct rally.

Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's session modestly
higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 3.68 points, or 0.04%, at 8664.73.
Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 0.66
points at 723.22. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 657.2
mn shares, with 106 issues higher, 78 lower and 21 unchanged.


OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading marginally higher Wednesday
after posting some moderate losses the previous day. December WTI
futures ended Tuesday's session 19 cents lower at $85.38 a barrel after
the International Energy Agency further cut its demand outlook for the
fourth quarter and 2013 amid a rebound in oil exports from sanctions hit
Iran. The adviser to industrialised nations on energy policy said OPEC
member Iran's exports jumped by a third to 1.3mln barrels per day in
October from the earlier two months. This morning, WTI futures have been
tied to a narrow trading range with little seen to influence direction.
December WTI futures have picked up from an intra-day low of $85.14 and
printed a session high of $85.57 a barrel a few moments ago, with the
market currently seen trading $85.56 a barrel, up 18 cents on the
session.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000 NY cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2650, $1.2700, $1.2715, $1.2750, $1.2800, $1.2820,
$1.2825
* Cable; $1.5800, $1.5950
* Aussie; $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0395, $1.0415, $1.0425, $1.0500
* Dollar-yen; Y79.50, Y79.60, Y79.70, Y79.90, Y80.00
* Euro-sterling; stg0.7930, stg0.7990, stg0.8000
* Kiwi-dollar; Nz$0.8140



EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Ireland will be the final Eurozone sovereign to
come to the T-bill market on Thursday, with plans to issue E500mln new
3-month T-bill maturing Feb 18, 2013. To recap, on Monday Germany sold
E3.52bln 6-month Bubill at average yield -0.0116%. In the afternoon,
France sold E3.996 3-month BTF at average yield -0.014%, E1.335bln
6-month BTF at average yield -0.002% and E1.296bln 12-month BTF at
average yield 0.019%. On Tuesday Italy sold E6.5bln 12-month BOT at
average yield 1.762%. Greece sold E2.7625bln 4-week T-bill at average
yield 3.95% and E1.3bln new 13-week T-bill at average yield 4.22%.
Belgium sold E1.008bln 3-month T-bill at average yield -0.004% and
E1.615bln new 12-month T-bill at average yield 0.076%.

FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) taps its
2-year benchmark 0.75% Sep 2014 BTAN, 5-year benchmark 1.00% Jul 2017
BTAN and off-the-run 3.50% Apr 2015 OAT issues Thursday for between
E6.5bln-E7.5bln. Most strategists expect to see decent demand given the
smaller than normal issuance target and given recent concession in
French paper since mid-October. In addition, this is AFT's last BTAN
auction for this year and likely to be the last tap of the 0.75% 2014
BTAN issue, which is also seen underpinning demand. For comparison
purposes, the 0.75% 2014 BTAN trades at 0.116% mid-yield and was last
sold on Oct 18 for E1.0bln at an average yield of 0.19% and then covered
4.73 times. The 1.00% 2017 BTAN trades at 0.776% and was also last sold
on Oct 18 for E4.72bln at an average yield of 0.92% and then covered
1.85 times. The off-the-run 3.50% Apr 2015 OAT was last sold on May 16
and therefore not comparable. Auction results are due around 1000GMT
The AFT will also re-open 2016 BTANi-/2022 OATei-/2027 OATei linker
issues later this morning for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Nov 15 Eurozone Q3 advanced GDP
- Nov 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E5.5bln
- Nov 16 Greece T-bill redemption E5bln-needs E937.5mn to avoid default
- Nov 20 Eurogroup meeting (extension) to agree final details Greek aid
- Nov 22/23 EU leaders Summit discuss the EU budget
- Nov 22 Spain Obligaciones auction
- Nov 22 ECB meeting
- Nov 23 Portugal YTD budget report
- Nov 23 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.39bln
- Nov 25 Elections in Catalonia
- Nov 27 Spain T-bill auction
- Nov 27 Italy CTZ/linker bond auctions
- Nov 28 Italy BOT auction
- Nov 29 Italy month-end BTP bond auctions
- Nov 30 Italy Q3 unemployment rate

[Coluche]

Teraz Hiszpania i Włochy.To wiadomo.

[expedient warzywniaka]

Taki edek, że na 10+ pips ciężko liczyć

Gdzie podziały się czasy 250 pips dziennie