1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Jakby tak żółtki konsolidowały w nocy 2980 - 2960, ale idą do góry...
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
John Williams, szef Fed z San Francisco twierdzi, że Fed rozszerzy program QE3 w przyszłym roku i zakończy go przed 2014.
Jego zdaniem Fed jest przygotowany do zakupu obligacji opartych o kredyty hipoteczne "tak długo jak to będzie konieczne" aby uzyskać "znaczącą" poprawę na rynku pracy. Oznacza to również, że Fed może rozszerzyć QE3 i dodatkowo włączyć do programu jeszcze "inne aktywa". Nie wyjaśnił jednak, co kryje się pod pojęciem "inne aktywa".
Przewiduje on, że stopa bezrobocia spadnie do poziomu 7,25 % przed końcem 2014 roku, a to jest poziom, który wg Fedu oznaczał będzie "znaczącą" poprawę.
"Jesli warunki poprawią się szybciej niż oczekiwaliśmy, zakończymy program wcześniej, ograniczając ilość bodźców monetarnych", powiedział Williams. "Jednak jeśli gospodarka nie będzie sobie radzić utrzymamy program tak długo jak to będzie potrzebne by uzyskać znaczącą poprawę na rynku pracy biorąc pod uwagę stabilność cenową", dodał.
Williams podkreślił, że ostatnie działania Fedu w zakresie polityki monetarnej mają "pomóc w osiągnięciu celu jakim jest maksymalne zatrudnienie i stabilność cenowa".
wtedy tez Szalom Drukarz BErnanke konczy swa kadencje i juz sie nie bdzie staral ponownie
Cholera wie co się będzie dziać , chociaż obstawiam wzrost.
Myślę że do 1.3015-20 dojdziemy, przetestować opór. Aczkolwiek cena już teraz wg. moich strategii doszła do bardzo ciekawego miejsca.
Niby się wspiera na małej LT, ale przyciskają ją dwie inne, opór i MA.
Jeżeli uda jej się przebić i odstukać to ~1.3015-20 to pewnie będzie mała cofka i można próbować reloada.
Jak bym był dziś na "S" to pewnie teraz w tym miejscu bym wchodził już teraz połową wartości standardowej transakcji, ze stop lossem powyżej 1.3020.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
EUROPE: There is a fairly robust calendar Wednesday, with a blend of
data and official speakers. The session begins with Bundesbank Vice
President Sabine Lautenschlaeger holding a discussion hosted by
Frankfurter Volksbank, scheduled to be held in Frankfurt at 0615GMT. At
0658GMT, we see the release of French October flash manufacturing and
services PMI, followed by the same data for Germany at 0728GMT. EMU
October flash manufacturing and services PMI is also due at 0758GMT.
Markets will be looking to these for a preliminary idea of where
Q3 euro zone GDP will settle. If anything, growth numbers for the zone
have been a little bit stronger than expected of late - certainly in
Germany. That has quelled rate cut speculation. The latter has in any
case been stamped on by ECB President Mario Draghi. Draghi has made
clear that the central bank's top priority is to mend fragmented money
markets across the zone so as to ease the transmission of the single
monetary policy.
EUROPE: (2) At 0800GMT, the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce
(DIHK) releases its autumn business survey in Berlin. Release of the
October IFO business sentiment survey at 0800GMT will be closely watched
for any further signs that the German economy is pulling itself back
from the brink of a serious economic contraction, which had been feared
following the release of Q2 GDP. Italy October consumer confidence
survey (sa) is also due to be released at 0800GMT. At 0900GMT we see the
EMU 2Q government debt report. At 1200GMT, ECB president Mario Draghi
talks to members of the German parliamentary budget, fiscal and European
monetary affairs commission, in Berlin. German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble holds a press conference at 1330GMT after the meeting of
government's fiscal stability council in Berlin. ECB president Mario
Draghi and German parliament president Norbert Lammert are due to
conduct a joint press conference in Berlin at 1400GMT.
GREECE: The German government is proposing Greece gives up more fiscal
sovereignty, eKathimerini says, citing documents leaked from coalition
lawmakers.
GREECE: The Greek coalition is facing its toughest test since the June
election, eKathimerini says, as the leaders of the three parties fail to
agree on structural reforms, thus delaying further talks with the
Troika.
UK: UK data is scheduled for release at 1000GMT and sees the release of
the Confederation of British Industry's monthly Industrial Trends survey
of the manufacturing sector. Recent CBI surveys of this sector have been
relatively upbeat, pointing to growth despite the PMI manufacturing
surveys suggesting the sector is still contracting. This month's report
could include a more negative reading as exports take a hit from the
ongoing weak economic performance in the euro zone and the slowdown in
major emerging market economies.
UK PRESS: A senior Labour peer has said the government should fund a 2p
cut in the basic rate of tax by freezing the foreign aid budget, the
Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: The Times says the latest Lloyds TSB survey of the housing
market shows total properties sold in England and Wales increased by
2.2% in the first 6 months of 2012 compared to the same period last
year.
UK PRESS: The UK's largest council, Birmingham City Council, has warned
a further 1100 job cuts could be needed to balance budgets, the FT
reports.
UK PRESS: China Investment Corp, the country's sovereign wealth fund, is
in talks to buy Deutsche Bank's HQ in London for stg250 million, the
Financial Times reports. Invesco will buy the 312,000 square foot
building on behalf of the fund. It is being sold by German real
estate fund Kanam, the newspaper said.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.2980, the rate recovered from a
pullback low of $1.2952 where Asian soveriegn demand had been visible
after earlier posting a high of $1.3041. Asian equities opened sharply
lower in early trade and euro-dollar slipped to $1.2972. Dip demand
recovered to $1.2992 as the dollar softened against most major
currencies, before the pair met resistance ahead of $1.3000, later
easing to $1.2985 in light dealings. On the topside market talk of
decent sell orders above $1.3000 from directionary funds. Stops noted on
the downside through $1.2945, ahead of bids/stops into $1.2920. Traders
look to Oct PMI data releases from France, Germany and the eurozone this
morning. German IFO survey follows next at 0900GMT, ahead of a meeting
with ECB Chief Draghi and German lawmakers at 1200GMT.
CABLE: Risk aversion continued in the US afternoon and as stocks opened
in negative territory the pair went on a stop hunt to post fresh 6 week
lows of $1.5913, the rate later bounced to close at $1.5950.
Euro-sterling recovered off earlier lows of stg0.8124 and with sterling
on the defensive the cross ground higher to close around stg0.8138.
Cable opened flat in Asia and steadied following comments from the
Governor of the Bank of England that warned the UK economy will not
recover until banks own up up to their bad debts, adding that he is
ready to inject more stimuli if needed. Cable slipped to lows of
$1.5936, before the rate recovered to $1.5945 and settled in a tight
range. Support seen at $1.5912 (38.2% of $1.5269-1.6309, 23 Aug high),
ahead of strong demand into $1.5905/00 ($1.5901 - 50% of Aug-Sep rally).
Sharp falls in Asian equities on the open added weight to euro-sterling
and the cross ground to lows of stg0.8134. Dip demand bounced and the
euro-dollar extended recovery helped lift to stg0.8148, later easing on
profit take sales.
DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Tuesday at Y79.85, the rate slipped
off highs of Y79.94 after earlier posting a low of Y79.71. The cross
tracked euro-dollar in the US afternoon to print lows of Y103.28 as risk
aversion weighed heavily on markets. Euro-yen later bounced to close
around Y103.70. Dollar-yen ground lower in early Asian trade as the
dollar softened against most major currencies, dip demand ahead of the
Tokyo fix pared losses and the rate climbed back to Y79.92. The rate
later eased to Y79.85 as Strong Japanese corporate/exporter offers
continued to cap ahead of Y80.00. A break on the topside opens
resistance at Y80.10 (5 Jul high), ahead of strong offers at Y80.20. The
cross slipped to Y103.53 in early Asia, before lifting in tandem with
euro-dollar's extended recovery to Y103.82, later settling around
Y103.60. On the downside support seen into Y103.50, CTA stops noted on a
break of Y103.40, ahead of Y103.30 (18 Oct low).
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednesday's
session lower, unable to consolidate an afternoon rally. The Nikkei 225
was lower by 59.95 points, or 0.67%, at 8954.30. Just ahead of the
close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 5.42 points at 7443.95.
Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 1.129 bn shares, with
40 issues higher, 169 lower and 16 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading around unchanged levels Wednesday
after prices dropped to their lowest level in over a month during the
previous session. Spot gold ended Tuesday's session $20.85 lower at
$1707.65/oz as prices became subject to selling pressure in tandem with
a fairly sharp risk aversion session across European markets, with
sentiment also not helped by a sharp drop in oil prices and other
commodities. Gold prices initially recovered during Asian traded hours
this morning after China's HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers
Index (PMI) rose to a three-month high of 49.1 in October, also
registering the most robust order books since April, suggesting that
conditions may be stabilizing. Spot gold initially advanced to session
highs of $1714.40/oz after the release of the Chinese flash PMI data,
but prices have since fallen back to trade a session low of $1706.40/oz
a few moments ago, with the market currently trading $1707.60 a troy
ounce, unchanged on the session.
OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading higher Wednesday, attempting
to end a run of four consecutive days of declines. NYMEX December light
sweet crude oil futures settled down $1.98 at $86.67 per barrel, after
trading in a $85.69 to $89.29 range. Oil prices had suffered another set
of losses after a risk aversion theme was present for much of the
European session yesterday. This morning has seen some risk appetite
show some moderate improvement after the release of the October HSBC
China flash PMI reading earlier in the day, which ticked up to a
three-month high of 49.1 from September's final 47.9, suggesting
conditions are stabilizing. WTI prices have picked up from session lows
of $86.53 a barrel to trade up to an intra-day high of $87.46. NYMEX
December WTI futures are currently trading $87.24 a barrel, up 57 cents
on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX November natural gas futures are trading marginally
lower Wednesday after rebounding yesterday from Monday's sharp declines.
November natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session up 8.3 cents, or
2.4%, at $3.535 per million British thermal units (Btu) after trading
between $3.437 and $3.559. Some technical buying helped underpin prices
during the previous session in addition to some colder Northeast and
Midwest weather forecasts for later this week and next that could stir
some more heating demand. Natural gas prices have been tied to a narrow
range so far this morning, paring back from a high of $3.529 to an
intra-day low of $3.512, now seen trading $3.516 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct ? France President Hollande to visit Greek PM Samaras
- Oct 24 ECB Draghi briefs German lawmakers on Euro-debt crisis
- Oct 24 German Schaeuble speaks after govt fiscal stability council
- Oct 24 IMF fifth review of Portugal under the Extended Arrangement
- Oct 24 Italy Oct consumer confidence survey
- Oct 26 Italy CTZ/linker auction
- Oct 26 Italy Sep business survey
- Oct 26 Spain Q3 unemployment rate
- Oct 28 Spain regional elections in Catalonia
- Oct 29 Spain floater bond redemption for E5.299bln
- Oct 29 Spain Rajoy meets Italy's Monti
- Oct 29 Italy T-bill auction
- Oct 29/30 G20 sherpas meeting
- Oct 30 Spain Q3 provisional GDP data
- Oct 30 Spain Sep TYD budget report
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
-Wygrywa tylko ten kto ma jasno określony cel i nieodparte pragnienie aby go osiągnąć.
-Mądry człowiek nie opłakuje przegranej, lecz szuka sposobu jak wyleczyć odniesione straty.
-"zwycięstwo to nie wszystko, a zaledwie część wszystkiego"
tylko czekać co z tego młynka wyniknie...
o 9:30
German Manufacturing PMI
German Services PMI
Jak słabsze lub mieszane to i 1.2950 może nie wytrzymać.
30 minut później German Business Expectations.
Dziś Mario mówi - więc to trzeba też mieć na uwadze.
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
, chociaż obstawiam wzrost.
