DayTrading: Środa 17.10.2012

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: A very limited day for European data Weds, with the UK taking
centre stage. On the continent, at 0900GMT, the EMU Aug construction
output numbers will hit screens. Wednesday sees the EFP leaders, heads
of EU centre-right parties, meeting in Bucharest. Greek PM Samaras and
Spanish PM Rajoy will attend, with Germany's Angela Merkel also expected
to attend. At 1000GMT, German Econ Minister Roesler is to give a press
conference on the latest govt econ forecasts.

SPAIN: Moody's Investors Services confirms Spain's Baa3 rating and
assigns a negative outlook. Moody's assessment that the risk of the
Spanish sovereign losing market access has been materially reduced by
the willingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake outright
purchases of Spanish government bonds to contain their price volatility,
Moody's says.It also cited it believes "Spain will likely
apply for a precautionary credit line from the European Stability
Mechanism (ESM)" which "should in turn help sustain demand for Spanish
government bonds by allowing the ECB to activate its Outright Monetary
Transactions (OMT) program of secondary market purchases. Entry into an
ESM precautionary program would not in itself lead to a downgrade as
long as the rating agency believes that the government is likely to
retain access to private capital markets."

FRANCE: French President Hollande's government has quashed plans to tax
works of art owned by the wealthy, the FT reports.

GREECE: Greek sate privatizations will bring in as much as E20 bn by
2020, the head of the TAPIED privatization fund said Tuesday,
eKathimerini reports.

GREECE: Greek official expect debt report before US elections.
Expect loan tranche in mid Nov



UK: At 0825GMT, the UK BOE/FPC member Andrew Bailey is set to deliver a
Speech at the BBA Annual Conference. No doubt LIBOR will be to the fore.
At 0830GMT, the UK's October BOE MPC Minutes will be released. Recent
data have lent some support to the view that Q3 growth could be punchy
after the 0.5% contraction in Q2. Furthermore, the current round of
asset purchases is ongoing. The BOE is still purchasing stg3 billion of
gilts a week in three weekly auctions. At this rate the BOE is on track
to hit the Stg375 billion target at the October 31 auction. Against that
backdrop, the MPC would no doubt have been unanimous in leaving policy
unchanged at its October meeting. All eyes remain focused on what could
well be a quite divisive meeting in November. MPC Member Martin Weale
last week made clear his reservations about doing more QE and it is
already well known that BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale and Ben
Broadbent are opposed.

UK: (2) Also at 0830GMT, the UK October Labour Market Report will be
released. Last month's report showed claimant count unemployment fell
sharply in August, helped by temporary hiring for the Olympics. Other
recent employment data have been somewhat of a mixed bag with the
KPMG/REC report on jobs showing new jobs being created but the PMI data
and BOE agents report suggest hiring is slowing. On the continent, at
0900GMT, the EMU Aug construction output numbers will hit screens.
Wednesday sees the EFP leaders, heads of EU centre-right parties,
meeting in Bucharest. Greek PM Samaras and Spanish PM Rajoy will attend,
with Germany's Angela Merkel also expected to attend. At 0915GMT UK BOE
Deputy Governor Paul Tucker Speaks at the BBA Annual Conference. Tucker,
who is seen as the favourite to take over the governorship at the BOE
when Mervyn King steps down in June, will likely talk about financial
stability but could also vent his views on monetary policy and the case
for more quantitative easing come November.

UK PRESS: UK unemployed looking to start their own business will be able
to seek up to stg 2000 in grants from the government, Prime Minister
David Cameron will say Weds, the Telegraph reports.

UK PRESS: Analysis by the UK Treasury shows the UK's deficit was stg 38
billion larger before the GFC than previously thought, the Telegraph
says. The paper says the deficit stood at stg 73 bn, as opposed to the
priginally thought stg 35 bn.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.3050, off earlier highs of
$1.3061 and as the risk rally continued. Euro-dollar spiked higher after
the New York close, boosted by news that ratings agency Moody's was
maintaining Spanish rating, although assigning a negative outlook. The
pair spiked to $1.3099, before extending to fresh 1 month highs of
$1.3124 on reported Macro account demand. Profit take sales eased,
LHS euro-yen interest into the Tokyo fix added further weight and the
rate dipped back under $1.3100 settling around $1.3090 ahead of Europe.
On the topside tech ressitance seen at $1.3124 (Hourly high), a break
opens strong offers into $1.3145/50, with stops set ($1.3147 - May 1
resistance, ahead of $1.3172 (17 Sep high). Support seen into $1.3050,
ahead of $1.3020. Focus now turns to the EU summit later this week for
direction.


CABLE: Closed in NY Tuesday at $1.6115, the rate recovered from a
pullback low of $1.6092 after earlier posting highs of $1.6132. Cable
spiked after the New York close to $1.6135 on news that Moody's was
maintaining the Spanish rating, although assigning a negative outlook.
Profit take sales eased off highs and the rate consolidated above
$1.6100 in thin trade as tight range trade took hold of markets. The
rate settled around $1.6124 ahead of Europe with resistance seen from
the 21 dma/Asian high at $1.6132/35, through here opens techs at $1.6143
(50% of $1.6309-1.5977), ahead of strong offers at $1.6150 with stops
set. Euro-sterling closed on a bid tone in NY at stg0.8100, just off
earlier intraday highs. The cross lifted in early Asia to stg0.8126 on
the earlier mentioned Spanish news and extended gains to stg0.8137.
Traders note a break of the 200dma on the move seen pivotal (last
break Oct 11), the pair later eased to stg0.8120 on profit take sales.


DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen failed to break Y79.00 in Europe yesterday, the
rate met strong resistance at Y78.96 and ground lower to Y78.88 around
the NY close. The pair opened flat in Asia before slipping in tandem
with euro-yen on reported Japanese bank sales ahead of the Tokyo fix,
further cross sales pressed and dollar printed lows of Y78.61. Late dip
demand nudged off lows ahead of Europe. Strong demand seen into Y78.50,
ahead of tech support at Y78.46/44 (Tenkan line, 55 dma). Euro-yen
closed in NY Tuesday at Y103.00, the rate recovered from a pullback low
of Y102.62 after earlier printing highs of Y103.08. The cross spiked to
Y103.52 in early Asia and was boosted by news that Moody's was
maintaining Spanish ratings, although assigning a negative outlook.
Profit take sales eased, before LHS interest emerged ahead of the Tokyo
fix, Japanese retail accounts added weight and the pair slipped to
Y103.10. Tight range trade continued and the pair consolidated above
Y103.00 ahead of Europe. Support seen on the downside at Y102.60,
stronger behind at Y102.50.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Wednsday's
session higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 105.24 points, or 1.21%, at
8806.55. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
6.88 points at 739.28. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.190 bn shares, with 170 issues higher, 39 lower and 16 unchanged.


KIWI: The rate extends gains this morning, now at $0.8165 vs
$0.8142 early Sydney after rebounding from a low of $0.8109 (Sep 11 low)
in overnight trades which followed lower than expected Q3 CPI. The boost
this morning came from Moody's affirmation of Spain's Baa3 rating which
pushed up the euro and the aussie, and earlier from a 1.8% rise in dairy
prices at Fonterra's global dairy auction.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in positive territory Wednesday after
recovering some ground in the previous session. Spot gold ended
Tuesday's session $10.05 higher at $1747.60/oz underpinned by some
weakness observed in the US dollar. Precious metal prices have also
edged their back from a correction lower in anticipation that Spain may
be one step closer to seeking a bailout after Moody's affirmed Spain's
Baa3 rating late last night, although assigning a negative outlook,
ahead of the eurozone summit set for later this week. The Moody's
announcement has seen a broad lift in risk appetite this morning with
the euro posting gains against the US dollar although off the session
best levels seen early on. The extended weakness observed in the US
dollar has helped spot gold recover to a session high of $1753.25 from
an intra-day low of $1746.90, with the precious metal currently seen
trading $1752 a troy ounce, up $4.40 on the session.


OIL: November Nymex WTI futures are trading modestly higher Wednesday
extending their gains from the previous session. November WTI ended
Tuesday's session 24 cents higher at $92.09 a barrel after trading in a
range from $91.30 to $92.32. Oil prices have continued to advance
Wednesday in tandem with a broad lift in risk appetite after Moody's
affirmation of Spain's Baa3 rating, the announcement coming ahead of the
eurozone summit set for later this week. In terms of supply, data
released late Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a
3.7mln barrel rise in crude oil supplies for the week ending Oct 12. The
API data comes ahead of the more closely watched US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) Report due to be published later today at 1430GMT.
November WTI has picked up this morning from a session low of $91.96 to
advance to an intra-day high of $92.76, with the market currently
remaining in modest positive territory trading $92.39 a barrel, up 30
cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Wednesday after posting their second consecutive session of
declines Tuesday. November natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session
4.9 cents lower, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.437 per million British
thermal units (Btu) as more profit taking emerged adding some moderate
pressure to prices. Forecaster WSI Energycast said that it expects above
normal temperatures to descend on most of the U.S. Midwest, East Coast
and South over the period of the next 11 to 15 days. The milder weather
forecasts have been reflected with an orderly correction in natural gas
prices which have advanced strongly to the upside in recent sessions.
This morning, prices have been tied to a narrow trading range, edging
their way back higher from a session low of $3.425 to an intra-day high
of $3.446, with the market currently trading $3.443 fractionally higher
from last night's settlement of $3.437 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3000, $1.3030, $1.3100, $1.3115
* Cable; $1.6010
* Aussie; $1.0205, $1.0215 (Large), $1.0220 (Large), $1.0240, $1.0250,
$1.0300
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8150
* Dollar-yen; Y78.50, Y78.90, Y79.00 (Large)
* Dollar-swiss; chf0.9345, chf0.9350, chf0.9375


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Portugal comes to the T-bill market Wednesday
with plans to re-open 3-month T-bill maturing Jan 18, 2013, issue new
6-month T-bill maturing Apr 19, 2013 and tap 12-month T-bill maturing
Oct 19, 2013 for indicative amount of E1.75-E2.0bln. To recap on Monday
Netherlands soldE1.07bln 3-month DTC at avg yield -0.037% and E1.02bln
6-month DTC at avg yield -0.021%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.996
3-month BTF at avg yield -0.023%, E1.197bln 6-month BTF at avg yield
-0.007% and E1.798bln 12-month BTF at avg yield 0.016%. On Tuesday Spain
sold E3.4bln 12-month Letra at avg yield 2.823% and E1.463bln 18-month
Letra at avg yield 3.022%. Greece sold E1.625bln new 13-week T-bill at
avg yield 4.24%. Belgium sold E1.503bln 3-month T-bill at avg yield
-0.01% and E1.605bln new 12-month T-bill at avg yield 0.072%. Finally
EFSF sold E1.998bln new 6-month bills at avg yield -0.0238%. Still to
come on Thursday, Ireland will issue E500mln new 3-month T-bill maturing
Jan 21, 2013.


GERMAN SCHATZ AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens
it's 2-year 0.00% Sep 2014 Schatz issue Wednesday for up to E5.0bln. The
issue trades at 0.085% mid-yield and trading near its cheapest level
since Sep 14 as safe-haven flows are unwound on speculation that Spain
is poised to request a bailout via a precautionary conditioned credit
line (PCCL) and after Moody's confirmed Spain's Baa3 rating. However,
this cheapening bodes with demand underpinned by its cheapest-to-deliver
(CTD) status into the Dec futures contract. At the last Schatz auction
on Sep 19, E4.084bln was alloted at an average yield of 0.06%,
bid-to-cover ratio of 2.1 times and Buba retaining 18.3% of the sale.
Prior to this, it was sold on Aug 22, where E4.083bln was alloted at an
average yield of 0.00% and bid-to-cover ratio of 1.5 times, with Buba
retaining 18.4%. The average cover ratio of the last 5-auctions is 1.84
times. This is the last re-opening of this issue, with the DFA due to
sell a new Dec 2014 Schatz on Nov 14 for up to E5.0bln. Auction results
due shortly after bidding closes at 0930GMT.

PORTUGAL T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Portuguese Treasury and Debt
Management Agency (IGCP) is planning to re-open 3-month T-bill maturing
Jan 18, 2013, issue new 6-month T-bill maturing Apr 19, 2013 and tap
12-month T-bill maturing Oct 19, 2013 for indicative amount of
E1.75-E2.0bln. The yield on the 3-month T-bill has remained steady in
Oct at around 1.25% and with only E750mln outstanding demand is expected
to be high. The last 3-month auction was back in February so not
comparable. As for the 6-month T-bill, the grey market is indicating
mid-yield of 1.75% and demand is expected to high as well. At the last
6-month auction on Sep 19, IGCP allotted E709mln at average yield 1.7%
and covered 3.1 times. As for the 12-month T-bill, market is indicating
mid-yield of 1.96%, and with an outstanding amount of E1.166bln demand
could be a little lacklustre. At the last 12-month auction on Jul 18,
IGCP allotted E1.25bln at average yield 3.505% and covered 2.4 times.
Auction results are due to be announced around 0945GMT.

[marekdt]

Po krótkiej korekcie (jeśli będzie do 1.31)- dalsze wzrosty. (błąd)

#
UPS przepraszam - (miało być 1.3100) (było 1.31020)

[richard.cali]

Posypie się na ponad 100pips jak domek z kart...ko-ko euro ko-rekkta

[Nowy123]

Euro jak ameliniowy


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdSC5NDaE48

maluja go kazda plota

-- Dodano: śr 17-10-2012, 9:09 --

Jedna z greckich partii koalicyjnych odrzuca reformy rynku pracy

[spongebob]

Posypie się na ponad 100pips jak domek z kart...ko-ko euro ko-rekkta

Też tak myślę. Wg mnie bez jakiegoś newsu nie przebije dziś poziomów 1.3160-1.3180. W tych okolicach trzeba liczyć się z dużą korektą.Już teraz widać że nie chce iść wyżej.

[ForexTig3r]

Na CADCHF LONG

[marekdt]

Uwaga - może być bardzo silne uderzenie kupujących... przy 1.310 (harmoniczna+ linia trendu)

[spongebob]

Jak myślicie, warto jest teraz wchodzić w krótkie na srebrze?

[kamasoni]

dax wg prognozy - teraz większy zjazd powinien być - grecja na tapecie

[Scorpiman]

Uwaga - może być bardzo silne uderzenie kupujących... przy 1.310 (harmoniczna+ linia trendu)

a duży zagra przeciw tym L-kom bo jest ich coraz więcej i jest hura optymizm na edku

najwyższy czas na czyszczenie SL-ów