1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
AUSTRALIA: From the minutes of the RBA's Oct policy meeting: - cash rate to provide additional support to demand
AUSTRALIA: From the minutes of the RBA's Oct policy meeting:
- INFO SUGGESTED CHANCE OF WEAKER THAN EXPECTED GROWTH AHEAD}
- RESOURCE INVEST AS GDP SHARE MAY STAY HIGH FOR SEVERAL YRS}
- DEPOSITS REMAIN KEY DRIVER OF BKS FNDING COST IN NEAR TERM}
- TERMS OF TRADE FELL MORE IN Q3, DN 10% FROM PEAK YR BEFORE}
- NOTED MINING COS RELUCTANT TO COMMIT TO NEW INVESTMENT}
- DISCUSSED IMPLICATION OF LOWER INVEST ON LABOR,TAX RECEIPT}
- LABOR MKT SOFTER BUT NOT INCONSISTENT WITH PVS FORECASTS}
- TOO SOON TO JUDGE EFFECT OF COMMODITY MKT ON DOMESTIC ECON}
-- Dodano: wt 16-10-2012, 3:49 --
AUSTRALIA: The minutes of the RBA's Oct board meeting had "flourishes of dovishness in the commentary, particularly in reference to the terms of trade and the pronounced weakness in construction but there was also a general sprinkling of hints that the RBA is not poised to slash the cash rate," says JP Morgan's senior economist Stephen Walters. Prominent among these was the reference to rising house prices and the still large amount of mining investment to come, even though there is a new-found reluctanct to commit to new spending, Walters says. Still JP Morgan expects a further 50bps of cuts from here with the next move likely as soon as November.
marekdt pisze:Musiałem sprawdzić co się dzieje...
Bo nie chciało mi się wierzyć, że Azja zacznie shorcić Euro po to by USA z Londynem mogło się taniej nachapać.
pachnie nalogiem i nerwica na starosc
jak uzyskać parytet na edku -swieca z 03.12 - tu podjada pod 1,053 i wtedy rura w jeden dzien 500 piepek
EUROPE: Tuesday's calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of
the ACEA September new car registrations. Inflation data is expected on
the Continent at 0900GMT, with the release of the EMU September final
HICP (%yoy) Perhaps the main European release comes at 0900GMT when
Germany's October ZEW survey will be available. Signs are that economic
weakness is spreading to the core of the euro zone. The ZEW survey for
October will provide some feel for how business confidence is holding up
in the zone's biggest economy.
GREECE: Any chance of a deal between the Greek government and the Troika
on budget measures now seem nlikely ahead of this week's EU leaders
Summit, eLKathimerini reports.
POLAND: Moody's says Poland's banking system outlook remains negative.
UK: In what is a first for the ONS, both UK September consumer and producer
inflation data will be published at 0830GMT. The CPI figures are
expected to show that inflation fell closer to the Bank of England's
2.0% target in September. But with oil prices rising and energy bills
also set to increase this winter, it is doubtful that inflation will
continue to fall much further. Indeed, last month's PPI data showed
output price inflation on the rise for the first time in six months.
With input prices rising strongly in July, this will also feed through
to output price inflation in the coming months, with potential
consequences for inflation at the consumer level.
UK PRESS: UK PM and Scottish PM signed an agreement Monday giving
Scotland a vore on independence in 2014. Scootish PM Alex Salmond said
Scotland copuld likely co-exist in a sterling union, hopefully with a
Scottish representative on the BOE MPC, the FT says.
UK PRESS: RBS is considering suing Santander for pulling out of the bid
to but 316 UK branches, the Telegraph reports, as the UK clearer stands
to lose up to stg 1 bln.
INDUSTRY NEWS: UK clearer RBS, 85%-tax payer owned, has put the head of
Europe and Asoia Pc rate trading on suspension as it investigates his
possible role in the LIBOR fixing scandal, the FT says. According to the
paper, he is the most senior employee to date to be put on leave.
US: Across the pond, at 1145GMT, the US ICSC-Goldman Store Sales for
the week ending October 13 are released. At 1230GMT, the day's inflation
theme continues with the release of the September Consumer Price Index.
Consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.5% in September. Energy prices
are expected to rise further in the month. Core CPI is forecast to rise
0.2%, as pricing power remains weak. At 1255GMT, the Redbook Average
for the October 13 week is due to hit the wires. At 1300GMT, the August
Treasury Int'l Capital System (TICS) numbers will be released.
The September Industrial Production and Cap Utilization data will be
released at 1315GMT. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in
September. Factory payrolls fell by 16,000 in the month with auto
production jobs down 3,000, but the factory workweek rose to 40.6 hours
from 40.5 hours in August. The ISM production index rose to 49.5 in
September from 47.2 in August. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise
to 78.3%.
US: (2) The last scheduled data for the day is released at 1400GMT, when
the US October Housing Market Index numbers are expected. Overnight, at
0100GMT, President Obama and GOP Presidential nominee go head-to-head in
the second of three Presidential debates. This week's show down is at
Hofstra Univ, Long Island NY. Obama will be hoping for a more convincing
showing than last time out, while Romney will aim to continue the recent
seeming change in momentum.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.2965, the rate recovered from a
pullback low of $1.2929 after earlier posting a high of $1.2978.
Euro-dollar ground lower in early Asian trade to $1.2942 before meeting
demand in the dip, the pair extended gains and rallied to $1.2976 on
hopes Spain could soon request a bailout. Profit take sales pared gains
and aided by intraday selling from hot money accounts settled around
$1.2960. Traders reporting sovereign bids and asset managers continue to
play ranges in headline driven markets. Reported offers at $1.2980,
stronger through here at $1.3000 with stops set, more stops noted on a
break of $1.3020. Initial support at $1.2950/40, ahead of $1.2930. Key
data released today is the German ZEW Survey at 0900GMT, followed in the
US by CPI at 1230GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Early demand in Europe seen as the rate squeezes to
$1.2996. Strong offers reported into $1.3000 with stops set, more stops
noted through $1.3010/20, ahead of technicals at $1.3022 (Resistance
from Sep 17). Rate eases at typing and last deals $1.2990.
CABLE: Closed in NY Monday at $1.6070, the rate having recovered off
early European lows of $1.6021 and consolidated gains amid light flow.
Early demand in Asia lifted cable to $1.6083, before a bout of profit
take sales and aided by broad dollar strength pressed to $1.6060. The
rate later bounced to $1.6070 and settled in a tight range ahead of
Europe. Offers reported at $1.6090, stronger behind at $1.6095/00
($1.6097 - 12 Oct high), through here opens tech resistance at $1.6104
(38.2% of $1.6309-1.5977). Support seen into $1.6050, ahead of $1.6020.
Euro-sterling closed at stg0.8060, off earlier highs of stg0.8078. The
cross had a slow grind throughout Asia to print highs of stg0.8070 with
resistance seen at stg0.8080, ahead of stg0.8090. Traders focus on the
UK calendar today with data releases at 0830GMT from CPI, Retail Price
Index and PPI.
DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen printed highs of Y78.76 on better than expected
Retail Sales data, others say demand attributed to the Softbank - Sprint
Nextel deal. The pair was unable to consolidate gains and closed in NY
at Y78.68. Dollar-yen opened in Asia at Y78.70 and ground higher through
the Tokyo fix amid light flow, the rate extended gains through key tech
resistance from the 100 dma/Ichimoku cloud top to print Y78.91. The
underlying tone remains buoyant with strong offers seen into Y79.00 and
stops set, traders also note a reported large strike rolling off here on
Wednesday. Through here opens a move towards Y79.22/39 (19 Sep high, 200
dma), ahead of more large offers/stops at Y79.50. Euro-yen closed in NY
at Y101.90, off the earlier spike high of Y102.29 following release of
positive US Retail Sales. Euro-yen opened on a bid tone in early Asian
trade to print Y102.25, before the rate stalled and settled in a tight
range. Fresh demand late Asia/early Europe extended to Y102.39 with
strong offers reported into Y102.50, a break opens key tech resistance
at Y102.53 (4 year downtrend).
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session higher, boosted by the lower yen and overnight gains on Wall St.
The Nikkei 225 was higher by 123.38 points, or 1.44%, at 8701.31. Just
ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 9.04 points at
732.03. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 978.4 mn
shares, with 177 issues higher, 35 lower and 13 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading around unchanged levels Tuesday after
posting a one-month low during the previous session. Spot gold ended
Monday's session $16.93 lower at $1737.55/oz as prices extended their
declines after the release of upbeat U.S. retail sales data which
undermined the requirement for stimulus measures and dented bullion's
appeal. Spot gold prices fell away sharply to post a one-month low of
$1728.75/oz as the correction lower deepened by another 1%, the biggest
one-day decline seen in three months. Some activity in the physical
market picked up after prices breached around $1730, but volumes were
limited. Spot gold has been tied to a narrow trading range so far this
morning, edging to a session low of $1734.95 from an intra-day high of
$1738.50/oz posted early on during Asian traded hours. Metals brokers
report limited activity so far, with some offers noted around the $1744
area, with some light bids seen at $1732 and again at $1725. Spot gold
currently trades $1738.90 a troy ounce, up $1.35 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading marginally lower Tuesday
after closing around unchanged the previous day. November WTI ended
Monday's session a penny lower at $91.85 a barrel after recovering from
a session low of $89.79, after some market participants noted an article
in the German magazine Der Spiegal, which said Iran could create a large
oil spill to block the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI
prices managed to spike back higher after initially falling back sharply
during a volatile session. Looking ahead towards supply data, inventory
data due this week is expected to show a 1.5 million-barrel increase in
US commercial crude oil stocks for the week ended October 12, Platts
says citing its survey of analysts. The API will release its weekly
report on Tuesday while EIA statistics are due on Wednesday. At 366.370
million barrels as of Oct 5, US crude stocks were 10.45% greater than
the EIA five-year average, Platts says. WTI prices have been tied to a
narrow range so far this morning, edging higher from an intra-day low of
$91.58 to a session high of $91.97, now trading $91.82, down 5 cents.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Tuesday after posting their first loss in six sessions the
previous day. November natural gas prices ended Tuesday's session 12.5
cents lower, or 3.5%, at $3.486 per million British thermal units (Btu)
after some milder weather forecasts prompted traders to take off some
profits after natural gas prices had enjoyed several runs higher over
the previous sessions. The latest National Weather Service six to ten
day outlook points to above normal temperatures in the Northeast and
across the majority of the South and West and some below normal readings
only in the Southeast and a small area in the Northwest. November
natural gas prices have edged their way higher so far this morning after
yesterday's decline, advancing from a session low of $3.482 to an
intra-day high of $3.515 per mln Btu, and are now currently seen trading
$3.511 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is a very busy schedule of Eurozone
sovereign T-bill issuance planned for Tuesday with Spain, Belgium,
Greece, and EFSF all due to come to the market. First up will be Spain
with plans to issue new 12-month Letra maturing Oct 18, 2013, and issue
new 18-month Letra maturing Apr 16, 2014 for an indicative amount of
E3.5-E4.5bln. Greece then issues E1.25bln new 13-week T-bill maturing
Jan 18, while Belgium taps 3-month T-bill maturing Jan 17, and issues
new 12-month T-bill maturing Oct 17, 2013 for an indicative amount of
E2.8-E3.2bln. EFSF then issue up to E2.0bln new 6-month Bill maturing
Apr 25, 2013. To recap on Monday Netherlands sold E1.07bln 3-month DTC
at avg yield -0.037% and E1.02bln 6-month DTC at avg yield -0.021%. In
the afternoon, France sold E3.996 3-month BTF at avg yield -0.023%,
E1.197bln 6-month BTF at avg yield -0.007% and E1.798bln 12-month BTF at
avg yield 0.016%. Still to come on Wed, Portugal tap 3-month T-bill
maturing Jan 18, 2013, issue new 6-month T-bill maturing Apr 19, 2013
and tap 12-month T-bill maturing Oct 19, 2013 for between E1.75-E2.0bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is
estimated at E18.07bln compared to E13.76bln last week, with France,
Germany, Slovakia and Spain all due to come to the market. Slovakia
kicked off issuance on Monday with tap of the 4.35% 2025 SLOVGB216 for
E60.9mln. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 2-year benchmark 0.00% 2014
Schatz issue for up to E5.0bln. On Thursday, France taps 0.75% 2014
BTAN, 2.00% 2015 BTAN, 2.50% 2016 BTAN and 1.00% 2017 BTAN issues for
between E7.0bln-E8.0bln. In addition, France also plans to sell a new
0.10% 2021 OATi on the same day for between E1.5bln-E2.5bln. Also on
Thursday, Spain taps 4.00% 2016 Bono, 4.25% 2016 Bono and 5.85% 2022
Obligaciones issues for up to E4.5bln. Also eyed, is the "BTP Italia"
bond -- orders taken from Monday to Thursday. Once again, supply is
outweighed by reinvestement flows, where redemption for E18.37bln is due
from Italy and coupon payments from Ireland E1.2bln, Portugal E1.1bln,
Austria E0.9bn and Germany E0.2bln -- to leave net cash flow positive to
the tune of E5.1bln vs E3.6bln last week.
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico tap 12-month
Letra maturing Oct 18, 2013 and issue new 18-month letra maturing Apr
16, 2014 for an indicative amount of E3.5-E4.5bln Tuesday. Yield on the
12-month Letra has squeezed higher by around 15bps since hitting recent
lows last week, and is currently seen at 2.81%. Demand is expected to be
high as this will be the last time the Oct 18 Letra will be re-opened
this year. As for the new 18-month Letra, grey market is indicating
mid-yield of 3.11%, which at only 30bps discount to the 12-month Letra
looks a little rich. With the Apr 16, 2014 Letra scheduled to be tapped
again next week, demand is expected to be below average. Although with a
large Letra redemption of E9.154bln on Oct 19 - leaving net cash flow
positive to the tune of E4.654bln, is seen underpinning demand. For
comparison, at the last 12-/18-month auction back on Sep 18, the Tesoro
sold E3.557bln 12-month T-bills at average yield of 2.835% with cover
2.03 times, and E1.019bln 18-month T-bills at average yield of 3.072%
with cover 3.56 times. Results due to be announced around 0840GMT.
GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management
Agency (PDMA) is planning to issue E1.25bln new 13-Week T-bill maturing
Jan 18, 2013 on Tuesday. Greek bond yields were lower Monday as
reassuring comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble that Greece
will not default, and increased likely hood the country will receive its
next bailout tranche in November has supported the markets. Not sure how
much this will affect the T-bill auction, but there could be a good
possibility that yields be marginally lower compared to previous
auctions. At the last 13-week T-bill auction back on Sep 18, the PDMA
sold E1.3bln at an average yield of 4.31%, with cover of 1.98 times. In
addition, Greece has a E2.0bln T-bill maturing on Oct 19, which could
provide a little support. Results due to be announced around 0915GMT.
BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a
3-month T-bill maturing Jan 17, 2013, and issues a new 12-month T-bill
maturing Oct 17, 2013 for an indicative amount of E2.8-E3.2bln on
Tuesday. This will be the last tap of the Jan 17 T-bill, and with only
E4.679bln outstanding, demand could be high. Mid-yield is around 0.01%
while at the last 3-month T-bill auction on Oct 2 the Belgium Treasury
allotted E1.758bln at average yield -0.003% and covered 2.32 times. As
for the new 12-month Oct 17 T-bill, this is not scheduled to be tapped
again in 2012 and therefore could see high demand. Mid-yield in the grey
market is indicating a level of 0.105%, while the last 12-month T-bill
auction was on Sep 18 were E1.565bln was allotted at average yield of
0.095% and covered 1.98 times. There will be a T-bill redemption of
E6.199bln on Oct 18, so cash flow could be positive to the tune of
E3.0bln and is also seen as supporting demand. Results are due to be
announced around 0940GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct -- Possible Moody's Spain ratings action (due anytime October)
- Oct 16 German Merkel to meet Swedish PM Reinfeldt in Berlin
- Oct 16 Bank of Italy releases Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- Oct 16 Greece to sell 13-week T-bill for E1.25bln
- Oct 16 Spain T-bill auction (12-/18-month) for up to E4.5bln
- Oct 16 EFSF sells new 6-month T-bill for E2.0bln
- Oct 17 ECB Draghi & Noyer speak at European Cultural Days 2012 event
- Oct 17 German Econ Minister Roesler on govt's new economic growth f/c
- Oct 17 Portugal sells 3-/6-/12-mth T-bill for E1.75bn-E2.0bn combined
- Oct 18 ECB meeting
- Oct 18/19 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
- Oct 18 Spain bond auction for up to E4.5bln
- Oct 18 EU Rehn to participate in ECMI annual conference, in Brussels
- Oct 19 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.02bln
- Oct 19 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
marekdt pisze:Musiałem sprawdzić co się dzieje...
Bo nie chciało mi się wierzyć, że Azja zacznie shorcić Euro po to by USA z Londynem mogło się taniej nachapać.
pachnie nalogiem i nerwica na starosc
Dobrze, że tylko pachnie.
Już niedługo...
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
.