DayTrading 11.10.2012

[greg811]

dla grających na EURUSD...

[bikedoctor]

o to sie zakombinowali - nowy dołeczek - a szkoda szkoda - trafili mi w TS - ( szkoda tylko 29 pip na + ) , a ze tak powiem co wy sie tak uparliscie na te harmoniczne - formacj - ja osobiscie kiedys sie tym bawiłem - ale sprawdzalnosc tego jat taka sam jak i innych zabawek.



u mnie wyglada to tak zamkniecie swieczki jakiejkolwiek ponizej poziomi 2850 - kiedrunek dalej dół .



A absmy mogli isci w góre to d1 musimy zamknac dzis powyzej wspominanaego poziomu przez kolegów z forum 2950 .


Obecnei szykuja sie do wybicia jedna ze stron . wiecz czekamy na wybicie nad 28 73 - ruch w góre , od 2862 ruch w dół - zakresu nie podaje , jak narazie kontynuacji rucu w dół nie zanegowali .

[crok.]

sie skosni wylamali dzien juz mozna zamknac bo plan wyrobiony a goldmany dalej pod interv skosnych pakuja i tak zostana zarobieni

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: There is a full European calendar Thursday, largely Eurozone
inflation data, kicking off at 0530GMT with the release of the French
September HICP data. At 0600GMT, German September final HICP is
released, followed by Spanish September final HICP at 0700GMT. Scheduled
for 0700GMT, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council
President Herman Van Rompuy are to speak at a conference "The State of
Europe: Escaping the doldrums", to be held in Brussels. At 0800GMT, the
ECB is set to publish its October Monthly Bulletin, which is expected to
largely be a repeat of the Oct 4 ECB presser statement. Also at 0800GMT,
Spanish September bank borrowing from ECB is released.

EUROPE: (2) At 0900GMT, Germany's leading economic research institutes
will release a joint economic forecasts commissioned by the German
Economics Ministry, in Berlin. Also at 0900GMT, Greek July unemployment
data is released, likely to underline the scale of the depression in the
country. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Hungarian Prime Minister
Viktor Orban are due to give a joint press conference after meeting, in
Berlin at 1100GMT. At 1400GMT, back in Europe, German Chancellor Angela
Merkel meets European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, in
Berlin.

SPAIN: The S&P two-notch downgrade of Spain will increase pressure on
Madrid to seek a bailout from the EU, the Guardian says.

SPAIN: Re the downgrade to BBB-, S&P says: "Rising unemployment and
spending constraints are likely to intensify social discontent and
contribute to friction between Spain's central and regional governments"
and notes that " Doubts over some eurozone governments' commitment to
mutualizing the costs of Spain's bank recapitalization are, in our view,
a destabilizing factor for the country's credit outlook." S&P has
lowered their long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on
Spain to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'.

GREECE: Although there has been no official comment in Athens, sources
tell eKathimerini that the government hopes to reach a deal with teh
trokia in the next few days and then be agreed quickly amongst coalition
leaders.

FRENCH PRESS: In an interview with Les Echos, France's former Prime
Minister Francois Fillon says of the 2013 budget that France has set for
itself: " It is a monument of amateurism, irresponsibility and
unfortunate circumstances." He says further, that it is a budget not of
combat but of defeat that has knocked out the economy with higher taxes.
He criticised in particular the increase on taxes in salaries as this
was a "great present to David Cameron who will roll out the red carpet"
for France's entrepreneurs and investors. He also called for the 3%
deficit target to be maintained absolutely. This was in essence a
question of credibility for France, he added.



UK PRESS: The FT says UK banks have taken advantage of the
"funding-for-lending" scheme to buy back billions in debt issued to
investors,. The paper says the move "is probably not what the
authorities intended."

UK PRESS: The EU has threatened the UK with legal action if it takes any
action against core EU principles such as free movement of labour, the
FT reports.

UK PRESS: The very wet UK spring and summer has depressed the wheat
yield by 14.1pc on average from 7.8 to 6.7 tonnes per hectare, according
to a survey by the National Farmers' Union (NFU), and will likely lead
to hefty increases in food prices, the Telegraph reports.



US: The US calendar starts at 1230GMT, with the release of the Initial
Jobless Claims for the October 6 week. The level of initial jobless
claims is expected to fall by 2,000 to 365,000 in the October 6 week
after a 4,000 increase in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment factors
expect a sharp increase in the first week of a new quarter. Claims had
been tracking lower toward the end of 2011, but have been more jagged in
2012, as the 4-week moving average indicates. Also at 1230GMT, the U.S.
August International Trade Balance numbers are released. The trade gap
is expected to widen to $44.0 billion in August after holding roughly
steady in July. Boeing reported no foreign orders and 35 foreign
deliveries in August, both down from July. Import prices rose 0.7% in
August, but fell 0.2% excluding a 4.1% surge in fuel prices following
several declines. Export prices were up 0.9% in the month, driven higher
by a jump in 5.1% in agricultural prices. However, weakness in Europe
likely restrained spending for US products.

US: (2) At 1400GMT, Federal Reserve Gov. Jeremy Stein is slated to
answer questions at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Back in the
US, energy traders will be on standby for the EIA Natural Gas Storage
numbers, expected at 1430GMT. At 1500GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks data
will be released. Later, at 1630GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
Pres. Charles Plosser speaks to the Southern Chester County Chamber of
Commerce Fall Luncheon on the economic outlook and after will answer
questions from the audience and the media.

US index futures are trading little changed in Asian trade, having
bounced back from earlier lows. The S&P Dec mini was last 0.25 points
higher at 1420.5, with the Nasdaq Dec mini trading at 2725.25, up 2.5
points. The Dow was unchanged at 13268.


DOLLAR: The US dollar is, and will always be, the world's biggest
reserve currency for many years, with the Chinese yuan still far away
from becoming a major reserve and settlement currency of the world, Gao
Haihong, a researcher with the CASS, the top Chinese government-owned
think tank, says in Tokyo.

EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2865, the corrective pullback from
session highs of $1.2913 given added weight by the late downgrade of
Spain by S&P which saw it trade to a low of $1.2862. Rate saw fresh
supply into Asia, as markets continued to react to the S&P move, knowing
that Moody's decision on Spain is awaited. Rate met initial support at
the $1.2840 level before recovering to $1.2860 only to get knocked lower
again as markets reacted to the release of Australian jobs data,
prompting further euro-Aussie long unwinds. Rate triggered minor stops
on the move below $1.2840, extending lows to $1.2826 before basing,
traders aware of support in place linked to the 200-dma at $1.2823
(support seen down to $1.2800, covering Oct1 low at $1.2804). Rate
drifted higher, driven in part as short term Asian spec shorts were
squeezed, the demand taking the rate to $1.2874 before settling around
$1.2865 into Europe. Eurozone inflation data the morning's focus, along
with an Italian bond auction. Traders will watch for any comment from
the Troika/IMF on Greece. US jobless claims the afternoon interest.

MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.2978 Tech 61.8% $1.3072-1.2826
$1.2960/65 Medium offers
$1.2950 Minor offers
$1.2920 Medium offers on approach/38.2% $1.3072-1.2826
$1.2913 Wednesday Oct10 high
$1.2892 Tech 76.4% $1.2913-1.2826
$1.2880 Medium offers/Tech 61.8% $1.2913-1.2826
$1.2877 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2868 ***Current mkt rate 0550GMT Thursday
$1.2826 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2823 Tech 200-dma
$1.2820-00 Strong demand/$1.2804 Oct1 lowStops
$1.2790/80 Stops
$1.2770-50 Medium demand/Stops
$1.2720/15 Medium demand


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6000, the rate pulled back from session highs
at $1.6035 as it tracked euro-dollar slippage, with move provided with
some buoyancy as euro-sterling eased off recovery highs at stg0.8061 to
stg0.8039. The late S&P downgrading of Spain added prompted further euro
sales, the supply taking the cross to extended lows of stg0.8023, the
move allowing cable to survive an early dip to $1.5993 before it bounced
to $1.6013. The deeper move in euro-dollar, following release of
Australian jobs data which prompted strong demand for Aussie across the
board, saw cable extend lows to $1.5985 before it recovered at a
stronger pace, the rate moving up to $1.6025. Corrective pullback met
support at the initial high of $1.6013 before settling around $1.6015
into Europe. The cross recovered off its lows to stg0.80375 before
settling around stg0.8033. Nothing major on the UK data calendar for
today with moves to come from outside influences. IMF/Troika in Japan
with any comments on Greece could affect risk outlook. US jobless claims
will provide the early US interest into afternoon trade.

MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.6217 Friday Oct5 high (post NFP)
$1.6140/60 Strong offers/Stops/$1.6160 76.4% $1.6217-1.5975
$1.6100/05 Medium offers
$1.6060 Medium offers/Stops
$1.6040/50 Strong offers/Stops
$1.6035 Wednesday Oct10 high
$1.6025 Int.Day high Asia
$1.6007 **Current market rate 0602GMT Thursday
$1.5985 Int.Day Asia
$1.5975 Tuesday Oct9 low/61.8% $1.5826-1.6217
$1.5974 Tech swing proj. based of rally from $1.6067 to $1.6217
$1.5965 Tech 38.2% $1.5393-1.6310
$1.5950/40 Strong demand
$1.5925/10 Medium demand
$1.5900 Stops


KIWI: The kiwi is slightly lower at $0.8160 vs $0.8164 U.S. close,
with the currency once again finding good support closer to the $0.8150
level which it attempted to test on news of downgrade in Spain's rating
by S&P. Data release this morning showed the manufacturing sector rose
slightly in September but continued to remain in contraction (48.2). BNZ
economist Craig Ebert (co-compiler of the BNZ-BusinessNZ index),
however, pointed out the data wasn't as weak as it looked with
expectations for output over the next 3 months staying positive. Another
data showed food prices fell 0.9% m/m in September. Market is now
looking ahead to labor force survey in Australia where a better than
expected outcome would likely continue the recent kiwi/aussie downshift
near-term, says BNZ currency analyst Kymberley Martin but adds she
remains constructive on the cross medium-term with year-end target of
$0.8200 (currently $0.7990). For the kiwi, Martin continues to see
near-term support at $0.8150 and resistance at $0.8220.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Thursday after
posting some moderate losses during the previous session. Spot gold
ended Wednesday's session $1.95 lower at $1762.35/oz after prices tested
support that had been present over the last couple of mornings around
the $1758 area. Gold prices continue to take a moderate correction lower
amid some continued support for the US dollar, which has been mixed in
Asian trade so far this morning, but continues to gain against the euro.
The dollar index pushed back above the 80 mark for the first time in a
month yesterday, despite expectations that the recent wave of QE from
the US Federal Reserve would drive the US dollar lower. Spot gold has
edged its way back higher during Asian traded hours this morning,
advancing from a session low of $1758.70/oz to an intra-day high of
$1765.57. Metals desks report limited activity so far this morning, with
some options gamma support working below the market around $1752 the
only flows of any significance shown so far. Spot gold currently trades
at $1764.20 a troy ounce, up $1.85 on the session.


METALS: Spot silver now little changed at $33.87 per ounce in Asian
trading hours, down 11 cents on the session. Silver prices hit a high of
$35.37 per ounce last week. In other precious metals, spot platinum is
falling $10.25 to $1663.70 per ounce, coming off of recent rises as
unrest in South Africa's mining sector appears to ease, while spot
palladium is lower $1.13 at $648.23 an ounce.


OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading marginally higher Thursday
after prices resumed their fall back during a volatile session the
previous day. November WTI futures ended Wednesday's session $1.14
lower, or 1.2%, at $91.25 a barrel with prices coming under pressure
after reports from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and
OPEC lowered global oil demand growth forecasts amid ongoing worries
surrounding economic growth. WTI prices have been tied to a fairly
narrow trading range so far this morning, after yesterday's declines,
edging their way higher from a session low of $91.09 to an intra-day
high of $91.71. Focus now turns to the release of the government report
from the EIA, due at 1100EDT (1500GMT). November WTI futures are
currently trading $91.36 a barrel, up 11 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading modestly
higher Thursday after prices posted another set of gains for the third
consecutive session the previous day. November natural gas futures ended
Wednesday's session 0.8% higher at $3.475 per million British thermal
units (Btu) after trading between $3.431 and $3.514. Spring and summer
months posted marginal losses. Price action in natural gas has become a
little fatigued with the market attempting to consolidate after
advancing around 22% in a little over two weeks as market participants
anticipate a pickup in demand this week from the season's first cold
snap. Traders attention's now turn to the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) storage report due out later today at 1430GMT, with
analysts expecting stocks to have gained 80 billion cubic feet last
week. November natural gas prices have been tied to a narrow trading
range so far this morning, picking up from an intra-day low of $3.474 to
a high of $3.486, with the market currently trading in marginal positive
territory at $3.478 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2975,
$1.3000
* Dollar-yen; Y77.75, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.60, Y78.65
* Euro-yen; Y100.00, Y100.50
* Cable; $1.5945-50, $1.6080, $1.6110, $1.6115
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9375, Chf0.9450
* Aussie; $1.0175, $1.0300
* Kiwi; $0.8175


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been
completed for this week, with E21.79bln in total allocated by Germany,
France, Greece, Slovenia and Italy, vs E14.5bln last week. To recap, on
Monday Germany sold E2.42bln 6-month Bubill at average yield -0.0218%,
then in the afternoon France sold a combined total E6.989bln in
3-/6-/12-month T-bills. The Tresor sold E3.796bln 3-month BTF at average
yield -0.018%, E1.595bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.010%, and
E1.598bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.018%. On Tuesday Greece sold
E1.3bln 26-week T-bill at average yield 4.46%. Slovenia then allotted
E26.85mln 3-month T-bill at average yield 1.19% and allotted E62.32mln
6-month T-bill at average yield 2.90%. Finally on Wednesday Italy sold
E3.0bln new 3-month BOT at average yield 0.765%, and sold E8.0bln
12-month BOT at average yield 1.941%. In terms of Eurozone Sovereign
T-bill issuance planned for next week we have Netherlands, France,
Spain, Greece, Belgium, EFSF and Portugal and could total E20.0bln.


ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy is scheduled to tap its 3-year
benchmark 4.50% July 2015 BTP Thursday for between E2.75bln-E3.75bln and
also off-the-run issues -- 4.75% Sep 2016 BTP, 4.50% Aug 2018 BTP &
5.00% Mar 2025 BTP -- for between E1.5bln-E2.25bln size. The auction
comes as EMU periphery spreads widen in the wake of S&P's decision to
downgrade Spain 2 notches to BBB- (neg) -- joining Moody's ratings at 1
notch above junk. However, any concession is seen welcome and comes
after decent demand at BOT auctions Wednesday and decision by Italian
government to agree to 2013 budget draft, which aims for a balanced
budget. In addition, the auction is seen benefitting from strong
redemption payment from Italy for E18.37bln due on Oct 15. For
comparison purposes, the last auction of the 4.50% 2015 BTP was on Sep
13 for E4.0bln was at average yield of 2.75% and then covered 1.49
times. The 4.75% 2016 BTP was last sold on Dec 2011, the 4.50% 2018 BTP
was last sold on Sep 2011 and the 5.00% 2025 BTP was last sold on May
14, 2012 & therefore not comparable. Auction results due around 0910GMT.

[marekdt]

o to sie zakombinowali - nowy dołeczek - a szkoda szkoda - trafili mi w TS - ( szkoda tylko 29 pip na + ) , a ze tak powiem co wy sie tak uparliscie na te harmoniczne - formacj - ja osobiscie kiedys sie tym bawiłem - ale sprawdzalnosc tego jat taka sam jak i innych zabawek.



u mnie wyglada to tak zamkniecie swieczki jakiejkolwiek ponizej poziomi 2850 - kiedrunek dalej dół .



A absmy mogli isci w góre to d1 musimy zamknac dzis powyzej wspominanaego poziomu przez kolegów z forum 2950 .


Obecnei szykuja sie do wybicia jedna ze stron . wiecz czekamy na wybicie nad 28 73 - ruch w góre , od 2862 ruch w dół - zakresu nie podaje , jak narazie kontynuacji rucu w dół nie zanegowali .

Oni są bardzo pedantyczni...

Nikt nie zwrócił uwagi na wczorajsze opcje podawane na koniec dnia... - Jedna z nich to zapewne Call / - Kurs będzie powyżej 1.293

http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/daytra ... ml#p519072

Option expieries of note for Thursday 11th October 2012

- EUR/USD 1.2875, 1.2930
- USD/JPY 78.30, 78.50
- EUR/JPY 100.50
- NZD/USD 0.8175

Te dwie będą podtrzymywać kurs.
Wczorajsze były PUT / Cena poniżej
Dziś CALL - cena powyżej - a po tym zleci na łeb na szyję.... Tak więc na wygaśnięciu opcji - będzie eldorado.
Wydaje się, że short - powyżej 1.293 będzie ciekawy. (jeśli tam dojdziemy)

-- Dodano: czw 11-10-2012, 7:56 --

Taki jest mój plan. na chwilę obecną...

[bikedoctor]

Jak na razie kurs Edka trzymany jest przez kurs kabla tam jest konsola 1.5975 - 1.6035 - i póki pozostajemy tamw konsoli edek nigdzi enie pójdzie - wybicie którego kolwiek poziomu na kabelku - pokaze nam własciwy kierunek dla dalszego marszu edka

[marekdt]

Jak na razie kurs Edka trzymany jest przez kurs kabla tam jest konsola 1.5975 - 1.6035 - i póki pozostajemy tamw konsoli edek nigdzi enie pójdzie - wybicie którego kolwiek poziomu na kabelku - pokaze nam własciwy kierunek dla dalszego marszu edka

Wiem, że czasami kabel ratuje Euro ale wolumen EUR i USD a GBP i USD - znaczna różnica.


Hmm wybronione kurs na 1.290+

(muszą to zagrać to przed 14 GMT options cut - więc nie będą się pieścić - na jakikolwiek news - z EBC podbić kurs i utrzymać go do wygaśnięcia opcji... ) Później Aukcja Włoskich obligacji... i wchodzą Pejsy z olbrzymią masą danych.

08:00 BRL Brazilian Retail Sales (YoY) 9.1% 7.1%

08:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 370K 367K
08:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3275K 3281K
08:30 USD Trade Balance -44.0B -42.0B
08:30 CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.2% 0.1%
08:30 CAD Trade Balance -2.0B -2.3B
IMHO to ciekawe (80-83% retail w Longach na USDCAD)
08:30 USD Import Price Index (MoM) 0.7% 0.7%

[klimokrates]

Jak na razie kurs Edka trzymany jest przez kurs kabla tam jest konsola 1.5975 - 1.6035 - i póki pozostajemy tamw konsoli edek nigdzi enie pójdzie - wybicie którego kolwiek poziomu na kabelku - pokaze nam własciwy kierunek dla dalszego marszu edka

mam pytanie Ty wiesz co ma wpływ na Eur Usd ?

[greg811]

Jak na razie kurs Edka trzymany jest przez kurs kabla tam jest konsola 1.5975 - 1.6035 - i póki pozostajemy tamw konsoli edek nigdzi enie pójdzie - wybicie którego kolwiek poziomu na kabelku - pokaze nam własciwy kierunek dla dalszego marszu edka

ktoś kiedyś pisał... chyba niemaszek "kabel nie raz pokazał że ma swój świat..."
nie uważam za poprawne korelowanie tych dwóch walut, wystarczy rzucić okiem na crossa -EURGBP...

[niemiaszek]

FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut...updated,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2850, $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2930, $1.2950, $1.2975,
$1.3000
* Dollar-yen; Y77.75, Y78.30, Y78.50, Y78.60, Y78.65
* Euro-yen; Y100.00, Y100.50
* Cable; $1.5945-50, $1.6000, $1.6080, $1.6110, $1.6115
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8040
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9375, Chf0.9450
* Euro-Sek; Sek8.59
* Aussie; $1.0175, $1.0220, $1.0260, $1.0300
* Kiwi; $0.8175