Hello
EUROPE:/UK - The European calendar is very limited Tuesday and kicks off
at 0645GMT, with the release of the French August foreign trade data.
UK data starts at 0830GMT, with the release of the August trade data,
along with the Index of production, manufacturing output and industrial
production. Back in the UK, also at 1400GMT, the September NIESR Monthly
GDP update is to be released.
EUROPE: Moody's Investors Service has assigned a long-term issuer
rating of Aaa and a short-term issuer rating of Prime-1 to the European
Stability Mechanism (ESM). The outlook is negative. The Aaa/Prime-1
ratings are based on the ESM's anticipated low leverage, the
creditworthiness of the ESM's members which are also the euro area
member states, the sound liquidity and capital management policy with an
Early Warning System (EWS) which ensures that funds will be available on
time, the ESM's preferred creditor status.
GREECE: Following the completion of the relevant national
procedures, the Eurogroup approves the next EFSF disbursement of E800
mln to Greece, and looking forward to adoption by the Ecofin of the
legal texts that will pave the way for EFSM disbursement of E2 bln and
to the approval of E1.5 bln disbursement by the IMF at the end of the
month. The government's active preparation of a return to the financial
markets in 2013 has recently been met with success, the Eurogroup notes.
GREECE: The FT says the Eurogoup itself and then the Troika at large,
remain split on how get get the Greek bailout back on track, saying
there is a split over whether the writing off of loans should be on the
table.
GREECE: Greek police are mounting the largest security operation Athens
has seen in 13 years ahead of the visit by German Chancellor Merkel, the
website eKathimerini reports. The last such operation was for a visit by
then US President Bill Clinton.
CYPRUS: Moodys Investors Service downgraded Cyprus's bond
rating to B3 from Ba3 and assigned a negative outlook.
BUNDS: Dec Bunds open down 10 ticks Tuesday at 141.29.
UK PRESS: The average salary for new graduates is seen at stg 22,800
this summer, the Telegraph reports, citing an APSCO survey, down 13.2%
on last year.
UK PRESS: The IMF again backed the UK government's current fiscal
stance, but said it should be prepared to resort to a "Plan B" if the
economy continued to remain weak. In its Fiscal Monitor, released Weds
ahead of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Tokyo, the IMF also
downgraded the UK's growth outlook for 2012 to -0.4%, down from +0.2%.
US: Back from the long holiday weekend, there is a full US calendar,
albeit largely second tier data. At 1145 GMT, the ICSC-Goldman Store
Sales data for the October 6 week are released. In between the US
releases, Canadian September Housing starts will hit trader screens.
At 1255GMT, U.S. Redbook Average for the October 6 week is released. At
1330GMT, MNI Capital Goods Index for the October 5 week are released.
Further US data is released at 1400GMT, with the September Employment
Trends Index and the October IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Index. Back in the
UK, also at 1400GMT, the September NIESR Monthly GDP update is to be
released. Further US data is seen at 1430GMT, when the MNI Retail Trade
Index for the October 6 week comes out.
EURO-DOLLAR: Opened in Asia at $1.2969 after the rate had seen
corrective pullback lows in European trade Monday at $1.2938, following
its correction off post US NFP data react highs of $1.3072 Friday. Early
trade into Asia was seen steady between $1.2965/70 before returning
Japanese accounts showed decent demand for euro-yen. Rate tracked
euro-yen's rise, touching an initial high of $1.2987 before meeting fund
supply. Rate eased off to $1.2976 before picking up fresh demand that
saw it bounce up to $1.2988 ($1.2989 38.2% $1.3072-1.2938). Slow drift
off this high seen ahead of the European open, the rate currently
trading around $1.2982. Germany Merkel arriving in Athens today could
prompt some reactive comment, with ECB Draghi due to speak at 0630GMT at
the European parliament. A light data calendar, releases that there are
not normally market moving. A break above $1.2990 to open a move toward
$1.3000/05 ahead of $1.3020/25. Support seen at $1.2965/60 ahead of
$1.2938 (61.8% $1.2804-1.3072 and Monday low). Alcoa earnings data
begins the US earnings season. IMF forecast revisions seen as expected.
EURO-SWISS: Traders noting the recovery in this rate overnight, as well
as euro-Dkk, as traders reacvted to reports that custodial banks State
Street and BONY Mellon would begin to charge investors to hold Swiss
Francs and Danish crowns. Euro-Swiss moved up from Chf1.2106 to
Chf1.2143, while euro-Dkk moved up from Dkk7.4570 to Dkk7.4620. One
Danish traders notes that this rate has eased back to Dkk7.4580 in local
trade on expectations of euro sales intervention.
CABLE: Opened in Asia at $1.6023, retested Monday lows at $1.6021 before
picking up demand that took it to initial highs of $1.6041. Move up was
seen driven by early demand for yen crosses by returning Japanese
accounts, sterling-yen able to extend its recovery off Monday lows at
Y125.15 to an early Asian high at Y125.70. Cable eased back to $1.6027
before picking up another round of demand that took rate up to $1.6046,
sterling-yen to session highs of Y125.84. Euro-sterling saw a late high
Monday of stg0.8095, initially easing off to stg0.8088 in early Asia
before rushing back up to mark extended recovery highs at stg0.80995.
Failure to break above stg0.8100 saw rate ease off to stg0.8089 before
settling between stg0.8090/95 ahead of Europe. Sterling retains an
underlying soft tone with attention today turning to UK
industrial/manufacturing production data at 0830GMT to further gauge
the UK economy, with this set of numbers regarded as 'clean' following
recent distortions due to bank holidays. Cable offers seen to $1.6050,
ahead of $1.6070/80. Support remains into $1.6020 ahead of $1.6000.
YEN: A returning Japanese market, following their long weekend, saw
local traders take advantage of the strong yen, and prompted in part as
well by reported comments late Monday from vice FinMin Nakao that Japan
was ready to act against the strong yen. Dollar-yen, which had seen lows
Monday of Y78.09, had recovered to Y78.30 into Asia. A dip back to
Y78.23 was greeted by decent demand that took rate to eventual session
highs of Y78.43, holding firm into early Europe. Euro-yen also reflected
to paring back of yen longs as it moved up to Y101.85, as it extended
its recovery off Monday lows at Y101.13 (opened Asia Y101.58).
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 93.71 points, or 1.06%, at
8769.59. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
8.85 points at 728.28. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.045 bn shares, with 39 issues higher, 173 lower and 13 unchanged.
AUSSIE-YEN: Citi-FX Wire reported in a morning mail that they have added
a new position to their leveraged trade idea portfolio and have gone
long aussie-yen. Entry level of Y80.20, with an initial target near the
August highs of Y84.00, stop loss at Y78.30.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading moderately higher Tuesday after
posting two days of declines. Spot gold ended Monday's session $5.65
lower at $1774.95/oz after some strength observed in the US dollar
applied some pressure to the precious metal. Gold prices managed to hold
at lows of $1766.14/oz, posted during Monday's session, and have since
modestly recovered amid some weakening demand for the US dollar, which
has continued into the Asian session this morning, although markets
ranges remain limited so far. Spot gold continues to trade in
consolidation mode, with market participants still yet to see if the
precious metal can punch its way through $1800. Gold prices have
tentatively edged their way higher in Asian trade this morning, picking
up from an intra-day low of $1774.20/oz to a session high of $1779.78 in
tandem with a limited improvement in risk assets so far. Spot gold is
currently trading $1778 a troy ounce, up $3.05 on the session.
METALS: Spot silver is now holding steady at $34.18 an ounce, up $0.19
on the session. The white metal hit an intraday low of $33.76/oz in the
previous session. Spot platinum is also little changed, up $0.15 at
$1694.60 an ounce, though prices remain underpinned by unrest in South
Africa's platinum sector. Spot palladium is up $1.97 at $660 an ounce.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading in positive territory Tuesday
as the market awaits the return of the US markets. November WTI futures
ended Monday's session 55 cents lower at $89.33 a barrel, with the
spread between WTI and Brent crude widening to $22.49 a barrel, the
widest differential seen since Oct 19, 2011 as declining output in the
North Sea continues to underpin Brent prices. Rising tensions between
Syria and Turkey has seen WTI prices regain some ground this morning
with some concerns building that if the conflict escalates it may
disrupt Brent supplies. Looking ahead, in terms of supply, weekly data
from the API is due on Wednesday while the US EIA release is due on
Thursday, both a day later than usual due to Monday's US holiday. At
364.698 mln barrels as of September 28 according to EIA data, US crude
stocks were 10.46% above the five-year average. The five-year average of
EIA data suggests that a build of 1.5 mln barrels is typical for this
time of year, Platts says. WTI has edged higher from session lows of
$89.58 to post an intra-day high of $90.33, now trading $90.17 a barrel.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Tuesday consolidating their gains from the previous day. November
natural gas prices ended Monday's session up 0.7% at $3.403 per million
British thermal units (Btu) after trading between $3.327 and $3.431.
Deferred months fared better, mostly settling between 1.5 and 4 cents
higher. After a chill over the next four to five days, private
forecaster EarthSat expects weather in the Northeast and Midwest to warm
to normal or above normal late in the week and into next week. Natural
gas prices have been tied to a narrow range so far this morning as the
market awaits the return of US market participants after yesterday's
holiday. November natural gas has edged its way higher to an intra-day
high of $3.425 per mln Btu after holding at a session low of $3.407 and
currently trades at $3.416 per mln Btu.
FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2920, $1.2960, $1.2975, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050,
$1.3100
* Dollar-yen; Y78.00
* Euro-yen; Y102.00, Y103.00
* Cable; $1.6140
* Euro-Sek; Sek8.64
* Aussie; $1.0130, $1.0235, $1.0250
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2550
* Euro-Cad; C$1.2625
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone is now
estimated to be E13.5bln this week after Italy announced its mid-month
BTP auction details. Netherlands kicks off supply on Tuesday with
re-opening of its 5-year benchmark 1.25% 2018 DSL for a target size of
between E1.5bln to E2.5bln. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 5-year
benchmark 0.50% 2017 Bobl for E4.0bln and will tap 10-year linker 0.1%
Apr 2023 Bundei for E1.5bln. Key focus is on Italy's medium-long term
BTP auctions on Thursday, which includes tap of 4.50% 2015 BTP for
between E2.75bln to E3.75bln and off-the-run 4.75% 2016 BTP, 4.50% 2018
BTP, 5.00% 2025 BTP bonds for between E1.5bln to E2.25bln. Elsewhere,
Belgium is due to conduct a Optional Reverse Inquiry (ORI) auction on
Friday. The debt agency has so far cancelled its last 7 ORI auctions and
only held such sales in Jan and Feb. In terms of reinvestment flows,
redemptions from Germany for E16.0bln and coupon payments from Germany
for E1.35ln and Italy E30mln - to leave net cash flow positive to the
tune of E3.88bln vs E11.3bln last week.
-- Dodano: wt 09-10-2012, 8:08 --
wersja poglądowa AT
09-paź-2012 7:02
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focus on One-Year Trendline
RES 4: $1.3173 - High 17 Sep
RES 3: $ 1.3121 - Bollinger Band
RES 2: $1.3098 - One year trendline
RES 1: $1.3072 - High Oct 5
LATEST PRICE: $1.2986
SUP 1: $1.2963/83 - 21, 5-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2909 - Minor support line
SUP 3: $1.2816/24 - Bollinger band, 200 day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2739 - Support line from July
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar sees a bull-cross for the stochastic and
momentum studies, turning bull's attention to a one-year trendline at
$1.3098. Support now initial comes from the 21 & 5-DMAs of $1.2963/83
with support line behind at $1.2909 and the 200-DMA at $1.2824.
09-paź-2012 7:10
MNI CABLE TECHS: Testing Lower Bollinger Band
RES 4: $1.6310 - 2012 high Sep 21
RES 3: $1.6273/97 - High Sep 28, Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.6218 - High 5 Oct
RES 1: $1.6162 - 21 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.6045
SUP 1: $1.5998 - 38.2% of Aug/Sep rally
SUP 2: $1.5960/68 - 38.2% of Jul/Sep, 61.8% retracement of 28 Aug rally
SUP 3: $1.5906/13 - 55-DMA, 38.2% retracement of $1.5270-$1.6310 move & High Aug 23
SUP 4: $1.5901 - 50% of Aug/Sep rally
COMMENTARY: Cable pulled back from a Fibonacci level at $1.6218 to
give back the 21-day moving average, which turns resistance at $1.6162
behind the 5-DMA of $1.6093. Bears are now focusing on Fibonacci levels
starting from $1.5998, although the move is testing the base of the
daily Bollinger band, which argues against fast losses.
09-paź-2012 7:40
MNI EURO-YEN TECHS: Trades Around 200-Day Moving Average
RES 4: Y103.86 - High Sep 17
RES 3: Y103.30 - Bollinger band
RES 2: Y102.87 - Resistance line from April
RES 1: Y102.80 - High Oct 5
LATEST PRICE: Y101.81
SUP 1: Y101.78 - 200-day moving average
SUP 2: Y101.23/32 -Tenkan, 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y100.93 - Kijun line
SUP 4: Y100.50 - July support line
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen also sees daily studies recover, including a
bull-cross in the daily stochastic and momentum studies. The move sees
the cross trade around the 200-day moving average, which turns initial
support at Y101.78 ahead of the Y101.32 21-DMA, as bull's attention
turns to a minor resistance line from April highs, coming in at Y102.87.
09-paź-2012 8:06
MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Tests Ichimoku Cloud
RES 4: Y79.66 - High Aug 20
RES 3: Y79.34 - 200-day moving average
RES 2: Y79.22/27 - High Sep 19, Top of Ichimoku cloud
RES 1: Y78.83/88 - 100-DMA, Base of Ichimoku cloud, High 5 Oct
LATEST PRICE: Y78.54
SUP 1: Y78.41/46 - Kijun line, 5-DMA
SUP 2: Y78.15/16 - Tenkan line, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y77.13/44 - Low Sep 13, Sep 28
SUP 4: Y 76.50 - Low Feb 6
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen built off a band of support from Y78.15/46
and reached Y78.88, testing the 100-day moving average and Bollinger
band top as well as the base of the Ichimoku cloud. The studies remain
firm, but bulls need to extend gains towards the cloud top of Y79.27.
to chciałbym kupić po "taniości".
