1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: With Tokyo markets closed Monday and US bond and credit markets
closed later in the day, Monday sees a quiet start to the week, allowing
traders the chance to consolidate last week's central bank and US jobs
new. However, there is still plenty of risk events through the European
session to keep traders attention. The Eurogroup are set to meet in
Brussels. With no word of a Spanish bailout request over the weekend,
attention now centres on whether the Spanish finance minister will
approach his eurozone counterparts. Apart from Spain, Eurogroup talks
are likely to move to Greece, with the market awaiting a decision on the
next tranche of bailout funds. However, with German Chancellor Merkel
visiting Athens Tuesday, there is unlikely to be an early decision.
Early European data sees the release of the German August trade balance.
Further German data is released at 1000GMT, with the release of German
August industrial output data. At 1500GMT, ECB Governing Council member
Jens Weidmann gives a lecture, in Duesseldorf.
ITALY: Italian Industry Minister Corrado Passera says Italy will not
need to have economic reform and fiscal discipline imposed upon it by
the EU after parliamentary elections next year, the FT reports.
GREECE: German Chancellor Merkel is to tell Greek PM Samaras that he
must "knuckle down" if the IMF is not to pull out of the country, the
Times reports, as reports at the weekend suggest Greek debts are
"spiraling."
GREECE: The Democratic Left, the junior coalition partner in Greece, has
voted to back the government's austerity package, eKathimerini reports.
UK: UK data gets underway at 0830GMT, when the October Trends in Lending
numbers are released. That is followed at 1100GMT, when the October OECD
Leading Indicator will hit screens.
UK PRESS: UK PM has said his government will veto any major increase in
the EU budget this year, the Telegraph reports. The paper says the PM
will also look to push for curbs on the movement of European citizens.
UK PRESS: UK Chancellor is set to confirm an additional stg 10 bn in
welfare cuts when he speaks at the Tory Party conference later Monday,
the FT reports.
UK PRESS: The FT says former Treasury head Gus O'Donnell has said he is
"not interested" in applying for the BOE Governorship, leaving the race
open to only two viable candidates - Paul Tucker and Lord Adair Turner.
Weekend press reports in the Sunday Times say the Treasury had
approached RBA Governor Glenn Stevens to apply for the role,
although the Treasury would not comment on "speculation."
US index futures are trading lower in Asian trade Monday, with the
S&P Dec contract down 2.5 points at 1453.0 and the Nasdaq Sep contract
down 5.5 points at 2798.75. Volumes are light, with Tokyo closed for the
Sports Day national holiday, It is the Columbus Day holiday in the US,
with bond markets closed. However, the NYSE and the Nasdaq are open for
trade.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3045 after rate had retreated
from an initial react spike high of $1.3072, following release of US
employment data, to a pullback low of $1.3015. Rate opened Asia around
$1.3035 and continued to drift lower as markets reacted to analysis of
Friday's jobs data, suggesting situation not as rosy as initial reaction
would suggest, as well as ECB Asmussen comments suggesting some tensions
in securing next Greek aid tranche, with focus turning to today's
Eurogroup FinMin meeting where Greece, Spain and Cyprus are expected to
be discussed. Market will be wary of any reported comments from this
session. Tokyo, New York and Toronto holidays today made for a subdued
session through Asia and expected to keep that influence through Europe.
However, German trade and current account data due up at 0600GMT ahead
of Eurozone SENTIX at 0830GMT and German industrial production at
1000GMT to provide interest this morning. Euro-dollar broke below the NY
corrective pullback at $1.3015 to extend lows to $1.2984, holding heavy
into Europe. Bids $1.2980/70 then $1.2940/35. Offers $1.3050, $1.3070-85
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3100 Medium offers on approach $1.3080 Medium offers/$1.3086 76.4% $1.3173-1.2804
$1.3072 Friday Oct5 high (initial NFP react)
$1.3035 Int.Day high Asia (61.8% $1.3072-1.2973)
$1.3020/25 Medium offers
$1.2995/000 Minor offers
$1.2986 ***Current mkt rate 0701GMT Monday
$1.2973 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.2983 $1.2970 Medium demand on approach/38.2% $1.2804-1.3072
$1.2950/40 Medium demand/Stops
$1.2920/00 Medium demand/$1.2906 61.8%
$1.2867 Tech 76.4% $1.2804-1.3072
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6136 after pulling back from a post US
employment report high of $1.6217 to $1.6123. Rate nudged to mark an
early high into Asia at $1.6142 before turning lower, taking its lead
from euro-dollar slippage, with rate squeezing down to $1.6102 before
settling around $1.6110 into Europe. Asian traders have suggested that
moves have been exaggerated by the thin markets with Tokyo on holiday,
and the US and Canada also out. Moves down through the overnight session
were seen on a paring of risk positions as analysts suggested the
US employment report headlines maybe flattered the real situation, as
well as ECB Asmussen suggesting possible tensions in regard to securing
Greece's next tranche of aid. No major domestic data due for release
today, though any comments from the Conservative conference will be
watched for (Chancellor Osborne due to speak). Support remains into
$1.6100 ($1.6102 76.4% $1.6067/1.6217), a break to expose the recent
lows at $1.6067. Resistance seen from above $1.6140 through to $1.6160.
Euro-sterling resistance stg0.8080, stg0.8100-15. Bids stg0.8060.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y78.67, after seeing US
employment react highs of Y78.88 before easing back and finding support
at Y78.60. Rate initially edged higher in a Tokyo holiday thinned
session, meeting resistance at Y78.76 before turning lower. The move
down was given added weight as euro-yen stops were triggered on the
moves through Y102.20 and Y102.00, this rate touching an overnight low
at Y101.97. Dollar-yen squeezed to Y78.51, with early Europe probing
below Y78.50 for stops, touching Y78.49 before edging back to Y78.58.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in negative territory Monday
extending their losses from the previous day. Spot gold ended Friday's
session $9.80 lower at $1780.60 a troy ounce, with prices correcting
lower amid a surprise drop in US unemployment, which fell to a near-four
year low of 7.8% in September. The better than expected non-farm
payrolls number has put some short term pressure on gold, with some
doubts creeping in as to whether or not the recent stimulus measures put
in place by the US Federal Reserve to boost the labour market would last
as long as initially thought. Spot gold prices have continued to decline
in Asian trade this morning, taking their cue from some increased demand
for the US dollar. Market depth remains more skewed towards the thin
side with both Tokyo and New York both closed for holidays, although
China have returned to the market today after a week's long public
holiday. Spot gold has extended lower from highs of $1780.90/oz to an
intra-day low of $1768.50, with prices remaining weak currently trading
$1768.60/oz, down $12 on the session.
METALS: Spot silver is now edging down $0.29 to $34.23 an ounce, after
trading in a $34.19 to $34.56 range. The white metal is extending losses
from the previous session, following gold lower after the release of
better-than-expected US jobs data. Meanwhile, spot platinum is sliding
$12.88 to $1693.40 per ounce. Last week, major South African platinum
producer Anglo American Platinum fired 12,000 workers participating in
an illegal strike, though the escalating unrest has so far failed to
push up platinum prices. Spot palladium is now down $5.48 at $655 an
ounce.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading lower Monday extending their
losses from the previous session. November WTI ended Friday's session
$1.83 lower at $89.88 a barrel as demand concerns continued to take its
toll on oil prices, with an unexpected drop in US unemployment doing
nothing to halt the decline. The US dollar has gained some more ground
during Asian traded hours this morning, which has in turn applied some
more pressure on WTI prices. However, with both Tokyo and New York
closed for holidays, volumes are muted. November WTI prices have
extended lower from an opening level high of $89.88 a barrel to trade to
fresh session lows of $89.18 a barrel a few moments ago, down 70 cents
on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Monday after closing around unchanged levels during the previous
day. November natural gas ended Friday's session 1 cent lower at $3.396
per million British thermal units (Btu) after trading between $3.337 and
$3.435. Prices remain firm after posting a 2012 high of $3.546 last
Tuesday, with the front month contract around 20% higher over the last
eight trading sessions. November natural gas futures have edged their
way higher in thin Asian trade this morning, advancing from an intra-day
low of $3.380 to session highs of $3.413. Trading is expected to remain
quiet with both Tokyo and New York both closed for holidays. November
natural gas is currently trading $3.407 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week is scheduled
from Germany, Netherlands and Italy -- estimated to be E13.0bln vs
E13.61bln last week. Netherlands kicks off supply on Tuesday with tap of
a 5-year benchmark bond 1.25% Jun 2018 DSL for a target size of between
E1.5bln to E2.5bln. On Wednesday, German re-opens 5-year Benchmark 0.50%
Oct 2017 Bobl for E4.0bln and will tap 10-year benchmark 0.1% Apr 2023
DBRi for E1.5bln. Then on Thursday Italy plan to sell medium-to-long
term BTPS with conirmation of bonds and size of auction to be announced
on Monday evening. In terms of reinvestment flows, there is only one
redemption from Germany for E16.0bln and coupon payments amount to
E1.4bln from Germany (E1.35bln) and Italy (E30mln) - to turn net cash
flow positive to the tune of E4.4bln vs +E11.3 last week.
GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is
planning to issue E4.0bln of a new 6-month Bubill maturing Apr 10, 2013
on Monday. German Bubill yields remain in negative territory even after
the rally in Spanish and Italian T-bills last week. In the grey market,
the new 6-month Bubill is seen trading around -0.01% off recent lows of
around -0.04%. At the last 6-month auction back on Sep 10, the treasury
allotted E3.4bln at an average yield of -0.0147%, cover of 1.5 times,
and with E600mln or 15% retained for secondary market operations. At
last months sale the 6-month Eonia rate was around 0.058%, therefore
giving a spread of -7.25bps, currently 6-month Eonia is seen around
0.07% level. There will be a Bubill redemption of E4.0bln next week,
leaving net cash flow flat. Results due to be announced shortly after
0930GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT)
taps E3.4-E3.8bln of a 3-month BTF maturing Jan 3,2013, taps
E1.1-E1.6bln of a 6-month BTF maturing Mar 21, 2013, and taps
E1.1-E1.6bln of a 12-month BTF maturing Sep 19, 2013 on Monday. BTF
yields still remain at low levels despite the continued risk-on
sentiment in the market, and this could have a negative influence on
demand at the auction. If the AFT allocate at the top end of the target
range, then, with a BTF redemption of E7.918bln on Oct 11, this will
leave potential net cash flow negative to the tune of E918mln. For
comparison on Oct 1, the AFT sold E3.993bln 3-month BTF at an average
yield of -0.017% with cover of 3.45 times, E1.693bln 6-month BTF at an
average yield of -0.009% with cover of 4.31 times, and E1.295bln
12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.025% with cover of 3.6 times. Results due to be announced around 1255GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Dojście do mocnego wsparcia które powinno zadziałać ze względu na spokojny dzień (i tydzień ogólnie też), moim zdaniem przejście przez ten opór w czwartek dało sygnał do dalszego umacniania się wspólnej waluty w stosunku do dolara i nie powinniśmy już wrócić niżej.
