1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
może pare groszy w średnim terminie tak, ale ogólnie rzecz biorąc to kapitał zagraniczny ma wpływ na kurs polskiej waluty, a to jest powiązane ze sprawą kupowania aktywów europy środkowo-wschodniej. Jeśli w europie obecne jest uspokojenie rynków to waluty umacniają się.
Teraz wstać o 6 to jest dla mnie wyczyn.
Fajnie jak zarobiłeś na tym.
ale cel widać teraz przy najbliższym wsparciu okolice 1.0200
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EU: At 0700GMT, Spanish September unemployment data is released.
Also expected Tuesday, are German September car registrations, coming in
the wake of weaker readings Monday in France and Italy.
At 0900GMT, EMU August industrial PPI data is released.
Also scheduled for Tuesday, ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen
and EU Internal Markets Commissioner Michel Barnier present findings of
the High-level expert group on possible reforms to the structure of the
EU banking sector - the broad equivalent of a euro zone Vickers report
which earlier this year recommended a ringfencing of investment and
retail banking activities. Sources indicate that the report will reach
similar conclusions to Vickers.
GREECE: The UK's Guardian says Greek debt talks have hit a fresh buffer,
as the "Troika" have rejected the latest proposed E2 bn in spending
cuts.
CYPRUS: The ruling Cypriot party has rejected bailout demands from the
Troika, the website eKathimerini reports.
UK: The calendar starts Tuesday with the release of the UK September
Nationwide House Prices at 0600GMT. Nationwide data has been on the
higher side in recent months, but comes in the wake of Hometrack
outlining asking prices continuing to fall. More UK data is expected at
0830GMT, with the release of the UK September Markit/CIPS Construction
PMI. The construction PMI showed the sector contracting in August, with
clear evidence of weak demand as new business volumes saw their fastest
fall since in 2009. The headline index fell to 49.0 from 50.9 in July,
with new orders falling for the third consecutive month and new business
volumes posting their sharpest fall since April 2009. Also at 0830GMT,
UK October Weekly Fuel Prices numbers are released.
UK PRESS: Online retailing giant Amazon is set to hire 10,000 temporary
staff in the UK ahead of the Christmas period, the Telegraph reports, as
the group expects "unprecedented" online demand.
UK PRESS: Disappointing poll readings for Opposition Labour leader Ed
Milliband ahead of the keynote conference speech Tuesday. A ComRes Poll
shows only 2 in 10 think he has what it takes to be a good PM, half the
number of incumbent David Cameron. Additionally, the poll shows that the
electorate still trail the Tories on the economic competence argument.
UK PRESS: Administrators have failed to save much of the JJB sports
empire, with 160 shops to close with the loss of 3500 jobs, the
Telegraph reports.
US index futures are trading barely changed in Asian trade
Tuesday, consolidating opvernight gains. The S&P Dec contract was last
unchanged at 1437.0, with the Nasdaq Dec mini 0.25 points lower at
2788.0. Dow futures are unchanged at 13437.
US PRESS: US attorney Gneral has filed a lawsuit against JP Morgan, the
WSJ says, "alleging widespread fraud by the company's Bear Stearns unit
in the sale of mortgage-backed securities."
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2886 after rate had seen extended
recovery highs of $1.2939, off earlier Asian lows of $1.2804, with rate
edging off initial pullback lows of $1.2877 into the close. Rate bobbed
above session lows of $1.2884 through early Asia before rate picked up a
slightly better bid tone via euro crosses, one trader mentioned
interest to position for euro-sterling stops above stg0.8005, the rate
edging to highs of $1.2905 before settling above $1.2900 ahead of the
RBA rate decision. The 25bp cut surprised some, the market seen split
on the decision, with the react sell off in Aussie-dollar dropped
euro-dollar back to retest the $1.2884 session lows before settling
back around $1.2900 ahead of the European open. Bids remain in place
from $1.2884 with interest extending toward $1.2870. Offers remain
between $1.2940/60 with interim interest seen between $1.2905/15.
Eurozone PPI due at 0900GMT provides this morning's data outlook, with
Spain employment report for Sep at 0700GMT may also promote some
interest.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6133 after correcting back from extended
recovery highs of $1.6175 to late session lows of $1.6122. Rate opened
Asia pivoting the $1.6130 level, dipped to $1.6125 before recovering to
an initial high of $1.6140. Announcement by the RBA to cut rates 25bp
dropped rate back to $1.6130 where strong demand emerged to pressure the
rate higher, trading to $1.6159 into the European open. Euro-sterling
opened Asia around stg0.7988 before slowly clawing its way higher as
traders noted taking up positions as it targeted stops above stg0.8005
(Monday highs). However, recovery faltered above stg0.7997 before
dropping back to retest the opening lows during the volatile reaction to
the RBA decision. Rate trades around stg0.7988 into Europe. Domestic
focus will be on Nationwide house data at 0600GMT ahead of construction
PMI at 0830GMT, with expectations seen for an improvement from last
month's 49.0 to a reading toward 50.0. Cable resistance seen at $1.6162
(76.4% $1.6175-22) a break to expose Monday's high. Support seen back at
$1.6125/20.
CABLE: Little immediate reactio to release of softer than forecast
Nationwide house price data with rate continuing to aply pressure to
technical resistance around $1.6162 (76.4% $1.6175-22). However, failure
to build on the early rally extension, along with the data, prompts
heavier selling which now takes rate back to $1.6157.
YEN: Demand for Aussie-yen by Japanese accounts provided the early lift
in Asia to settle the rate above Y78.00, the rate edging on to Y78.16
before getting a late knock back to Y78.05 after the RBA cut Australian
interest rates. Demand for euro-yen provided added buoyancy into the
pullback, as this rate extended recovery to Y100.87, after the initial
rise to Y100.85 was knocked back to Y100.62 following the RBA move.
Market seen in a risk-on mode. Dollar-yen trades around Y78.10, the
cross at Y100.83.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 10.46 points, or 0.2%, at
8786.05. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
1.03 points at 731.32. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
798.5 bn shares, with 114 issues higher, 89 lower and 22 unchanged.
JAPAN STOCKS: Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average Closes down 0.12%
at 8,786.05
AUSSIE: Initial react to the RBA rate cut saw Aussie-dollar drop back by
60 pips to $1.0305, with secondary sales allowing ratwe to fill reported
demand into $1.0300, extending lows to $1.0298. Rate currently trades
around $1.0308.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in marginal positive territory
Tuesday after closing the previous session with slim gains. Spot gold
ended Monday's session $3.20 higher at $1775.30/oz, after prices reached
an 11-month high of $1791.20 after a better than expected ISM report saw
US dollar prices come under pressure providing a boost for the precious
metal. Gold prices also advanced to the upside after a key supporter of
the US Federal Reserve's new bond buying program made the case for its
continuation through next year. Charles Evans, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago, said via an interview on CNBC that the Fed's
latest effort to jump start the economy was "going to be effective" and
that the Fed would "in his opinion continue those purchases through
2013. Market participants will now focus for the remainder of this week
on the FOMC minutes, ECB interest rate announcement and US jobs data.
Spot gold prices have edged their way back higher from an intra-day low
of $1772.03 to session highs of $1781/oz and now trade at $1777.50 a
troy ounce, up $2.20 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading in marginal negative
territory Tuesday after posting slim gains the previous day. November
WTI futures ended Monday's session 29 cents higher at $92.48 a barrel
after a stronger than expected ISM number helped lift prices away from
their session lows. In terms of supply, US commercial crude oil stocks
for the reporting week ended September 28 are expected to show a 1.5
million-barrel increase on the prior week, Platts says citing a poll of
analysts. The API will release its weekly report on Tuesday while the US
EIA report is due Wednesday. As of the reporting period that ended Sep.
21, US crude stocks were 10.79% above the EIA's five-year average at
365.180 million barrels and appear to be well supplied compared to
historical standards. The five-year average suggests an increase of
around 560,000 barrels is typical for this time of year, Platts says.
The API report is due later tonight at 2030GMT. WTI prices have been
tied to a narrow range so far this morning, edging back lower from a
high of $92.62 to hold at session lows of $92.18, currently $92.42.
OIL: US commercial crude oil stocks for the reporting week ended
September 28 are expected to show a 1.5 million-barrel increase on the
prior week, Platts says citing a poll of analysts. The API will release
its weekly report on Tuesday while the US EIA report is due Wednesday.
As of the reporting period that ended Sep. 21, US crude stocks were
10.79% above the EIA's five-year average at 365.180 million barrels and
appear to be well supplied compared to historical standards. The
five-year average suggests an increase of around 560,000 barrels is
typical for this time of year, Platts says.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading higher
Tuesday extending their sharp gains from the previous day. November
natural gas futures ended Monday's session up 16 cents, or 4.8%, at
$3.48 per million British thermal units (Btu) after advancing late on to
a new 2012 high of $3.485. The front month has now posted gains of 22.7%
in the last five sessions, the biggest five day gain seen in around
three years. Prices continue to surge higher amid forecasts calling for
lower temperatures in the coming weeks, signalling a likely pickup in
demand for gas fired heating. Natural gas prices have continued to trade
higher during Asian traded hours this morning and have advanced from an
intra-day low of $3.467 to trade to another fresh year high of $3.512
per mln Btu a few moments ago. November natural gas now trades at $3.504
per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Austria kicks off supply on Tuesday with taps of
a 7-year benchmark bond 1.95% Jun 2019 and a 30-year benchmark 3.15% Jun
2044 for a combined total of E1.32bln. Both France and Spain then come
to the market on Thursday, with Spain tapping 3-year benchmark 3.75% Oct
2015 Bono, 2-year 3.30% Oct 2016 Bono and 5-year 5.50% Jul 2017
Obligacion, with indicative size of E3.0bln to E4.0bln. France will tap,
4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, issue new 10-year benchmark 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT and
tap 40-year benchmark 4.50% Apr 2041 OAT for between E7.0 and E8.0bln.
In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions and coupon
payments only amount to E0.22bln from Italy - to turn net cash flow
negative to the tune of E11.78bln vs flat last week.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Both Belgium and EFSF come to the T-bill
issuance market Tuesday and will conclude the auctions for this week.
Belgium a 3-month T-bill maturing Jan 17, 2013 and tap a 6-month T-bill
maturing Mar 14, 2013, for a indicative amount of E2.8-E3.2bln. The EFSF
will round us off with selling up to E2.0bln new 3-month Bill maturing
Jan 10, 2013. To recap on Monday Nertherlands sold E1.31bln 3-month DTC
at average yield -0.047% and sold E1.19bln 9-month DTC at average yield
-0.013%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.993 3-month BTF at average
yield -0.017%, E1.693bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.009% and
E1.295bln in 12-month BTF at average yield 0.025%.
AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: Austria kicks off Eurozone sovereign
supply on Tuesday with taps of a 7-year benchmark bond 1.95% Jun 2019
and a 30-year benchmark 3.15% Jun 2044 for a combined total of E1.32bln.
The 7-year benchmark bond trades at 1.362% mid-yield and was last sold
on Sep 4 for E600mln at average yield 1.344% and covered 2.24 times.
This will be the first tap of the 30-year benchmark 3.15% Jun 2044, that
was first launched as a dual-tranche issue on June 26 via syndication
for E2.0bln at mid-swaps +100bps which then equated to +97.3bps vs 2044
Bund, and yield of 3.208%. The issue last traded at 2.898% mid-yield. Auction results are due around 0915GMT.
BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a
3-month T-bill maturing Jan 17, 2013, and re-opens a 6-month T-bill
maturing Mar 14, 2013 for an indicative amount of E2.8-E3.2bln on
Tuesday. This will be the first of 2 taps for the Jan 17 T-bill, with
the next one scheduled on Oct 16, which could dampen demand. As for the
Mar 14 T-bill this is not scheduled to be tapped again until beginning
of December and therefore could see high demand. At the last 3-month
auction, on Sep 18, E1.402bln was sold at an average yield of -0.023%
with cover of 2.97 times, and in the last 6-month auction, back on Sep
4, E1.305bln was sold at an average yield of 0.004% with cover of 2.19
times. There are no T-bill redemptions this week, so cash flow could be
negative to the tune of E3.2bln. Results are due to be announced around
0940GMT.
EFSF BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The European Financial stability
Facility (EFSF) is planning to issue up to E2.0bln in new 3-month Bill
maturing Jan 10, 2013 on Tuesday. The old EFSF 3-month Bill yield is
currently seen trading around 0.015%, higher than BTF with similar
maturity. At that last issuance EFSF sold E1.997bln at an average yield
-0.0454% and covered 3.0 times. Demand is seen supported by the fact
that there will be a Bill redemption of E1.913bln on Oct 4. Results are
due to be announced shortly after 1000GMT by Germany's Bundesbank.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
HunterPL pisze:Witam co myslicie o edku oczywiscie w skali dzisiejszego dnia szczegolnie w czasie dzialania londynu
Niepewnosc.
W zasadzie zaliczylismy juz poziom ktory byl oczekiwany (przynajmniej przeze mnie) czyli 1.2803,
Teraz moze byc:
kontynuacja w kanale spadkowym czyli DOWN
podwojne denko na poziomie 1.2803 czyli dzisiaj DOWN pozniej ostry UP,
Jakies info moze isc z europy i bedzie dzisiaj jazda UP
dodam jeszcze mozliwosc konsoli na obecnym poziomie to bedziemy mieli komplet
Moim zdaniem wykres poki co nieciekawie wyglada na spadki, no ale moze wlasnie o to chodzi ze zbyt oczywiste sa te spadki dzisiaj wiec przed jazda DOWN trzeba zrobic zmylke zeby np. taki mah1y zglupial totalnie i zamiast grac oczywisty setup + zarabiac kasiore to bedzie stal z boku o obserwowal jak jada w oczywstym kierunku.
Popatrze co bedzie dalej.
ploty sie potwierdzily obnizyli stopy %:) kto zaryzkowal 
Teraz wstać o 6 to jest dla mnie wyczyn.
