1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: A heavy calendar Thursday gets underway at 0600GMT, with the
release of the German August ILO employment change, followed at 0700GMT
with the release of the Spanish Aug retail sales numbers. Further weak
data is expected from Spain, but it will probably be overshadowed by the
Spanish preliminary 2013 budget proposals. At 0755GMT, further German
Sep unemployment data is released, followed at 0800GMT with the release
of August M3 data from the ECB and the Italian August business survey.
Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the EMU Sep economic sentiment and
the EMU Sep business climate indicators are released. At 0940GMT, ECB
Governing Council member Patrick Honohan is speaking at the Business and
Finance Corporate Restructuring Summit, in Dublin. At 1300GMT, ECB
Governing Council member Jens Weidmann is slated to give a speech on
"Confidence -- precondition and success of a stable currency" at a
business conference in Berlin.
EUROPE: A European Parliament committee has voted to introduce reforms
on high frequency trading, the Guardian reports, with the move coming
the same day German lawmakers vote to enact legislation.
GREECE: Greek PM Samaras and fellow coalition leaders will meet Thursday
in a further attempt to finalise the latest round of E13.5 bn in
austerity measures, eKathimerini reports. However, the website says some
sources in government have "given up hope" of an agreement ahead of the
Oct 8 Eurogroup meeting, with others even concerned there will be no
agreement by the Oct 18 EU Leaders summit.
GREECE: Greek entrepreneurs and self-employed owe a total E194 bn to
the state, banks and social security funds, eKathimerini says, a total
equivalent to almost the entire Greek GDP.
BUNDS: Dec bund futures called -10 at open
UK: UK data is expected at 0830GMT, with the release of the UK's revised
Q2 GDP data. The second estimate saw GDP was revised up to show a fall
of 0.5% on both the quarter and the year, broadly in line with the
median forecast. The upward adjustment was well flagged by earlier
revisions to both the construction and industrial production data, both
of which were revised upwards from their initial estimates. The GDP data
could well be revised upwards again after recent construction and
industrial production data came in stronger than expected. Also expected
is the Q2 Current Account data. Also set for release at 0830 are the
September minutes from the BOE Financial Policy C'ttee minutes. The
release of the minutes of its latest meeting could provide interest this
time. Markets are anxious to hear any further assessment of how the
BOE/UK Treasury Funding for Lending scheme is panning out. Following the
decision of the FPC during the summer to go easy on liquidity
requirements on banks in light of the wider threat to the sector from
the euro zone, markets will be keeping at least ONE eye on the release.
UK PRESS: The IFS, a left-leaning UK think tank, says Chancellor George
Osborne should rip up his fiscal rulebook and replace his "problematic"
debt reduction target, the Telegraph says.
UK PRESS: Regulators in the UK are looking into interest-only
mortgages, to see if they are likely to be the next area of banking to
be hit with a mis-selling scandal, the Times reports
US: Index futures are trading higher in Asia Thursday, recouping
some of the overnight losses. The S&P Dec mini was last up 5.5 points at
1432.5, while the Nasdaq Dec mini was 11.25 points higher at 2785.5. Dow
futures are also higher, up 44 points at 13389.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2873 after recovering through the
session from a low of $1.2835 into a late high of $1.2875. A late
recovery attempt on Wall St provided tentative risk appetite into early
Asia, and with Asian equity markets opening positive prompted short
covering that lifted the rate to an early extended recovery high of
$1.2878. A drop back to $1.2867 bounced as Japanese trust banks bought
yen crosses (euro-yen and Aussie-yen mentioned) which took euro-dollar
to session highs of $1.2892. Reported sell interest placed from above
$1.2890, and said to extend to $1.2910, provided a hurdle to further
upside progress and eased rate back between $1.2870/80 before picking
up a fresh bid tone into early Europe, the rate currently trading around
$1.2885. Spain preliminary budget report for 2013 is due for release
around 1200GMT and will be watched, though attention to quickly turn to
Friday's Spain bank stress test results. Data interest provided by
Germany employment at 0755GMT ahead of ECB M3 at 0800GMT and EMU
confidence data at 0900GMT with US GDP at 1230GMT. Bids $1.2835/25.
EURO-DOLLAR: Edged to $1.2898 as traders highlight Shanghai A shares up
3%, seen on the back of rumours of CSRC holding a press conference
around 0800GMT with speculation of positive news. Rumours also abound
that a Cny8tln post-China National Day announcement to be made for that
increase in investment/infrastructure. Strong offers have been noted
into $1.2900, which is currently keeping the rate at bay. Further sell
interest seen to $1.2910.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6162 after recovering off session lows at
$1.6137 to $1.6167 ahead of the close. Rate dipped back to $1.6160 in
early Asia before picking up fresh demand as session opened with
tentative risk appetite, prompted by the positive opening in Asian
equities. Rate stepped its way to a high of $1.6194 before momentum
faltered and allowed for a drift back to $1.6177. Fresh demand emerged
into the dip ahead of the European open, taking rate to $1.6189 at
posting. Focus today will be on UK GDP release at 0830GMT, the final
reading of Q2 which was last revised to -0.5% from -0.7% (median
-0.4%/-0.3%). US GDP due at 1230GMT. However, events in the Eurozone
will have its own directional impetus, Spain 2013 budget the interest
here with further unrest in Spain and Greece to be watched for on TV
screens. Cable offers seen placed between $1.6195/05 (covering Weds
recovery high at $1.6203, 50% 1.6268-1.6137 and 38.2% $1.6310-1.6137)
with stops placed on a break of $1.6210. Support $1.6175/70.
Euro-sterling was contained by stg0.7954-65 through Asia.
CABLE: Edges back above $1.62 and seen retesting area of recent
recovery highs between $1.6200/10. Rate has traded to a high of $1.6205,
currently just holding above the figure. Stops noted on a break of
$1.6210, though seen needing to clear $1.6220 to get upside momentum
really on track.
YEN: Japanese trust bank demand for euro-yen and Aussie yen provided the
main and only interest in yen pairs through Asia. Dollar-yen was
contained by Y77.62/76 with Asian traders noting stops on both sides at
Y77.50 and Y77.85. Euro-yen pivoted Y100.00, with trade contained by
Y99.92-100.19. The cross trades around Y100.25 into early Europe,
dollar-yen around Y77.73.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's
session higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 43.17 points, or 0.48%, at
8949.9. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
2.80 points at 745.34. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.006 bn shares, with 135 issues higher, 71 lower and 17 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in positive territory Thursday after
taking a deeper correction lower during the previous session. Spot gold
ended Wednesday's session $7.90 lower at $1752.75 after prices slumped
at one stage to a two week low of $1737.50 as strength in the US dollar
gathered some more momentum, in turn putting some increasing pressure on
the precious metal. Spot gold has also corrected lower on fears that
some of the previous QE3 euphoria may not be the big bullish event that
some market participants may have originally perceived it to be, not
helped by comments made Tuesday by Philadelphia Fed Bank President
Charles Plosser. Plosser said the Fed's recent actions boost economic
and employment growth carry "significant risks." Spot gold prices
recovered after breaking support at $1745/oz as the US dollar continued
to attract have flows. Gold prices have edged their way back higher in
tandem with some risk short covering this morning, picking up from
session lows of $1751.20 to session highs of around $1760/oz, with the
market currently trading $1758 a troy ounce, up $5.25 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading in positive territory
Thursday after posting three consecutive days of losses. November WTI
futures ended Wednesday's session $1.39 lower at $89.98 a barrel, the
lowest settlement seen since Aug 2 as concerns surrounding global
economic growth hardened. November WTI futures slipped as low as $88.95
at one stage. In terms of supply, US government data showed that crude
inventories unexpectedly fell 2.45mln barrels last weekt o 365.2mln
against analyst's expectations for a rise of 1.9mln. US gasoline
inventories also unexpectedly declined by 481,000 barrels after being
projected to gain 500,000 barrels. WTI prices have returned to the upper
end of their intra-day trading range so far after initially slipping
back from a high of $90.42 to hold at session lows of $89.88, with the
market currently trading $90.32 a barrel, up 34 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Thursday after posting another set of gains during the previous
session. November natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session 11 cents
higher at $3.215 per mln Btu after October futures expired up 9.9 cents,
or 3.4%, at $3.023 per mln Btu after trading in a range between $2.927
and $3.046. Technical buying and forecasts for some cooler weather next
month continue to underpin prices, with extended forecasts now showing
some cooler weather slipping into the Midwest and possibly the East in
early or mid October. November natural gas futures have picked up from
session lows of $3.188 during Asian traded hours this morning and are
currently on session highs trading $3.219 per mln Btu. Traders are
looking ahead to the US Energy Information Administration storage report
due to be published later today.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been
completed for this week, with E20.9bln in total allocated by Germany,
France, Spain, and Italy, vs E20.3bln last week. To recap on Monday
Germany sold E1.173bln new 12-month bubill at average yield -0.0184%. In
the afternoon, France sold E3.798 3-month BTF at average yield -0.016%,
E1.698bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.006% and E1.269bln in 12-month
BTF at average yield 0.006%. On Tuesday Spain sold E1.399bln 3-month
Letra at average yield 1.203% and sold E2.584bln 6-month Letra at
average yield 2.213%. Finally on Wednesday, Italy sold E9.0bln new
6-month BOT at average yield 1.503%. In terms of Eurozone Sovereign
T-bill issuance planned for next week we have, Netherlands, France,
Belgium, and EFSF, and could total E14.0bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: In sovereign bond issuance Thursday Italy taps
its floater June 2017 CCTeu for between E500mln-E1.0bln, re-opens 5-year
benchmark 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln and re-opens
10-year benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for between E2.0bln and E3.0bln. To
recap on Monday Belgium sold E785mln 3.50% 2017 OLO 63 at average yield
1.241% and covered 2.11 times, E500mln 3.00% 2019 OLO 67 at average
yield 1.997% and covered 2.32 times, E784mln 4.25% 2021 OLO 61 t average
yield 2.389% and covered 2.08 times, and E945mln 4.25% 2022 OLO 65 at
average yield 2.609% and covered 1.85 times. On Tuesday Netherlands sold
E1.92bln 2.50% Jan 2033 DSL at average yield 2.497% and Italy sold
E3.937bln Sep 2014 CTZ at average yield 2.532% and covered 1.65 times.
Italy also sold E1.004bln 2.10% Sep 2016 BTPei at average yield 2.46%
and covered 1.75 times, and E496mln 2.10% Sep 2021 BTPei at average
yield 3.68% and covered 2.26 times. On Wednesday Germany allotted
E3.191bln 1.50% Sep 2022 Bund at average yield 1.52% and covered 1.2
times.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Sep 27 Spain preliminary Budget Announcement
- Sep 27 Italy BTP/CCT month-end auctions
- Sep 27 Greece PM, Coalition leaders meet for austerity package talks
- Sep 28 Spain Bank Recapitalisation announcement
- Sep 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Sep 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.5bln
- Sep 30 Ireland bond redemption for E18.4mln
- Sep 30 Spain deadline for Moody's downgrade review (end Sep latest)
- Oct 2 Austria Bond Auction
- Oct 4 Spain bond auction
- Oct 5 Italy dollar bond redemption for $2.5bln
- Oct 8 Slovenia Presidential elections
- Oct 8 Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 9 EcoFin Meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 10 German BOBL auction
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro taps its
floater June 2017 CCTeu for between E500mln-E1.0bln, re-opens 5-year
benchmark 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln and re-opens
10-year benchmark 5.50% Nov 2022 BTP for between E2.0bln and E3.0bln
Thursday. The auction comes at a very difficult time as market
confidence in Eurozone periphery bonds has fallen in the last couple of
days on concerns over the Eurozone economic growth and lack-lustre
demand at 2-year zero coupon and 6-month BOT issues, pushing yields to
2-week highs. The June 2017 CCTeu floater was last sold on Aug 30 for
E793mln at average yield 5.33% and covered 2.42 times. The 4.75% June
2017 BTP trades mid-yield 4.10% and was last sold on Aug 30 for E2.5bln
at average yield 4.73% and covered 1.46 times. As for the 5.50% Nov 2022
BTP, this will be the first tap after being launched on Aug 30 for
E4.0bln at an average yield of 5.82% and covered 1.42 times, with
mid-yield seen around 5.25%. Tap of 10-year BTP will make it eligible
for delivery into Dec12 contract Auction results are due around 0910GMT.
Ostatnio zmieniony 27 wrz 2012, 08:27 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
pewnie bedzie fail... no ale ladny setup (no gdyby nie ta DLUUGA SWIECA BIALA ktora moze wszystko zjebac ale sl 7 pipsow wiec warto zaryzykowac bardzo korzystny wspolczynnik RR)
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
ale sl 7 pipsow wiec warto zaryzykowac bardzo korzystny wspolczynnik RR)
