Teraz wam naprawdę przynudzę - moje wypociny na temat kabelka które wysłałem pewnemu... angolowi na ten temat (przepraszam za kulawą angielszczyznę):
In general there are two modes of trading the Cable and one special day:
- boredom, meaning nothing really is going on in markets - you can always find some action in Cable shooting pips in contrarian trading. This is the favorite bank traders game in a morning. I mean London City traders and their morning - the Cable is all in their hands, who knows it better inside out? Whenever you see Cable moving out by some 30-40 pips be ready to fade in. Especially the famous Asian range breakouts resulting in fakeouts Keep in mind Pound is not as liquid as Euro or Greenback so it's easier to manipulate price action.
- action time - something really affecting either the Sterling, either the Greenback. Usually reports or other scheduled events days. Now, if this is a scheduled event like say PMI report, it starts pricing in early, quite often as early as Nikkei Open. If the event is expected to change anything, even it this is just something stupid but still prevailing sentiment, forget about contrarian or range trading. Sometimes it's accompanied with rumors about the event outcome. The more the rumors affect the price, the more "buy rumor, sell fact" market type.
And once the event comes you have two options: if it's as expected or just some more than expected - sell the fact. If it's surprising - go for it but make sure you don't fall in love in it - Cable is quick profit playground. Get your profit fast and run for safety. Surprises opposite to expectations are better to trade in this scenario.
- every month last trading day - UK buys Euros for Pounds through Buba on the last day of every month for the EU contribution. Starting about 9 London time and finishing long enough before Europe banks close to make it accounted that day. Something about 3-4 PM London (London is always one hour ahead of Frankfurt so they have en extra hour to make it through).
People hate Cable. I understand. They look for trends. Cable doesn't like trends. It's the less trending pair of all I know.
People expect to make profit from breakouts. They get the breakout and hope to make say 50 pips as it did previous day. Instead they get 100% retracement (which is quite common in Cable by the way). Why? Yesterday it worked, today not?
Most probably because yesterday it was something driving the Cable fundamentally while today it was just tech play only
Cable tech trading is contrarian based - sell intraday rallies, buy dips. Fundamental trading is let it go... That's why many suggest trading Cable trends on H4/D1 timeframes. Well, you can find the trends there but don't be surprised to find them short lived if you follow tech stuff only…
Ah, forgot about big elephants - UK clearers and their order books. These orders have nothing to do with FX while they're big enough to make everything upside down. I remember last day of October (or maybe September?) - UK selling Pounds for Euros for the EU contribution as usual. This was something like 2.8 bln Euros - enough to make the Sterling down across the board. The very same day some UK clearer was buying Pounds for Euros for some cattle deals. It was a bit more than 3 bln of Euros! The clearer outperformed the UK government! Cable stayed flat through European morning but when Buba stopped selling it spiked up immediately.
Some two months earlier other UK clearer made a real mess executing some UK farmers federation deals for three consecutive days - everything was upside down then. The clearer tried to make it as quiet as possible but it was simply mission impossible with this size.
That's why I call them big elephants - they come in, don't care about the mess they do and just leave everything flattened…
Anyway it's still wicked game. Remember the recent BoE QE2 announcement? 200 pips down in minutes only to reverse and make much more hundreds to the upside?
Jak uda mi się znaleźć jakieś pół godziny czasu przetłumaczę to z powrotem na nasze
Albo wręcz napisać od nowa - tutaj nie ma pewnych istotnych informacji które ten angol już znał. A to są podstawy na których zbudowana jest cała reszta.
Jakże często ludzie mają już gotową opinię zanim zdążą pojąć istotę rzeczy.
A gdy już ta istota w pełni do nich dotrze, jakże często muszą zmagać się z konsekwencjami swojej opinii ;-)