Stforex pisze:Tak sobie myślę, że to by było bez sensu gdyby grube ryby ustawiały zlecenia na oporach/wsparciach. To by skutkowało w dwojaki sposób:
1. Wszyscy gracze wiedzieliby, co robią grube ryby, a to chodzi o to, że ma być odwrotnie - grube ryby mają wiedzieć, co robią gracze.
2. Ceny za realizację dużych zleceń byłyby dużo gorsze, bo wszyscy by grali ten sam kierunek co grube ryby i cena leciałaby na pysk, zamiast trzymać poziom dla większości zlecenia "grubasków".
Myślę, że Grubaski lubią statystykę, a skoro przeciętny stoploss wynosi 20-30 pipsów, to wynikałoby z tego, że Grubaski ustawiają się 30 pipsików za S/R.
Ale to tylko takie moje luźne przemyślenia przy kawie z biedronki.
Sforex to się nazywa "sitting duck" czyli ogólnie łatwa zdobycz pisał o tym FTI, ale nie napisał jak to rozgrywają dalej tylko, że łapią SL.Stforex pisze:Stforex napisał:
Tak sobie myślę, że to by było bez sensu gdyby grube ryby ustawiały zlecenia na oporach/wsparciach. To by skutkowało w dwojaki sposób:
1. Wszyscy gracze wiedzieliby, co robią grube ryby, a to chodzi o to, że ma być odwrotnie - grube ryby mają wiedzieć, co robią gracze.
2. Ceny za realizację dużych zleceń byłyby dużo gorsze, bo wszyscy by grali ten sam kierunek co grube ryby i cena leciałaby na pysk, zamiast trzymać poziom dla większości zlecenia "grubasków".
Myślę, że Grubaski lubią statystykę, a skoro przeciętny stoploss wynosi 20-30 pipsów, to wynikałoby z tego, że Grubaski ustawiają się 30 pipsików za S/R.
Ale to tylko takie moje luźne przemyślenia przy kawie z biedronki. Cool
Nie patrz na to w ten sposób ;pStforex pisze: - USDX był jeszcze bardzo wysoko.
Witaj Brother!brother pisze:Sforex to się nazywa "sitting duck" czyli ogólnie łatwa zdobycz pisał o tym FTI, ale nie napisał jak to rozgrywają dalej tylko, że łapią SL.Stforex pisze:Stforex napisał:
Tak sobie myślę, że to by było bez sensu gdyby grube ryby ustawiały zlecenia na oporach/wsparciach. To by skutkowało w dwojaki sposób:
1. Wszyscy gracze wiedzieliby, co robią grube ryby, a to chodzi o to, że ma być odwrotnie - grube ryby mają wiedzieć, co robią gracze.
2. Ceny za realizację dużych zleceń byłyby dużo gorsze, bo wszyscy by grali ten sam kierunek co grube ryby i cena leciałaby na pysk, zamiast trzymać poziom dla większości zlecenia "grubasków".
Myślę, że Grubaski lubią statystykę, a skoro przeciętny stoploss wynosi 20-30 pipsów, to wynikałoby z tego, że Grubaski ustawiają się 30 pipsików za S/R.
Ale to tylko takie moje luźne przemyślenia przy kawie z biedronki. Cool
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Źródło: https://sites.google.com/site/rtp505/ho ... /bntradingBeyond Naked Trading
Written by Orbital
Hello there ladies and gentlemen its once again article time. This time we are going to be discussing our Trading styles a little bit more intensively but especially concerning Supply/Demand in Trading.
Unfortunately it seems to be the case that most people still aren’t completely grasping the concept of what we are doing and stare at our charts in disbelief. So lets hope this article will clear up some of the confusion still up there in the air.
The very first thing you need to understand about trading is that there are no rules, yes this does sound like a vague oversimplification like some girl at a party who you’ve been trying to get with but have been blown off for weeks. You need to completely free yourself from the idea that trading involves rules that are set in stone. Because depending on the instrument and its nature and the timeframe and your overall goals you will constantly find your rules being broken and thus leaving you in a general state of confusion like somebody roofied you and you woke up naked in some strangers apartment.
I guess in essence we would all wish for the markets to be a clear and simple place where we can execute trades according to specified parameters but it doesn’t work that way. Just like life (depending on your view and philosophy of the world) the markets are structured chaos.
The sooner you accept these things the sooner you will understand that there are NO BLACK AND WHITE METHODS that can be applied. For example just because one trade works out on an m5 timeframe, does not mean that the same trade will work out on an H1 timeframe. Also just because one setup worked out at a particular time does not mean that it will work out again later on. Parameters change, structure changes, orderflow and PA changes, things aren’t always exactly the same. For example what seems to be a W (double bottom or skewered double bottom with different low proportion ratios) doesn’t always lead to a breakout north, sometimes that W can be a butterfly, sometimes it can be a double bottom bearflag (a slightly structurally more complex setup). Basically its important to understand that markets change, rhythm changes and equilibrium is constantly shifting.
Your “Rules” need to be Flexible and they will need to be adaptive to your trading style, its important to make sure that the one constant in your trading system is your money management, since that is the thing which will allow you to understand if a trade or setup is worth your while. But lets discuss that later.
There have been a metric shitton of questions in the past and unfortunately still inbound in the foreseeable future about why certain trades were taken when they clearly were not in an “Obvious S/D zone”. This will be the essential part of this article. Now I am going to say something here and I recommend you take it by heart:
Supply and Demand is NOT ENOUGH.
Got it? No? Once again: Supply and demand IS NOT ENOUGH. It simply isn’t if you wish to prevail in the markets, especially super bitchy ones like DAX and Crude where sudden bursts of movements can fuck your stops in an instant. Some of us had to learn the hard way so consider this a free gift to you people, unfortunately most of you will not pay attention to this since you are to stubborn. Every idiot with a box of crayons and missing a chromosome or two can identify and draw a box. Seriously you do not need to be a genius to accomplish that. Now… sometimes and perhaps often enough with the right money management and the proper risk reward settings, just trading off boxes can be profitable. But you will bang your head against the wall ever so often if you ignore candlestick and chart patterns. In fact if you ever wish to progress in trading you will need to learn PA and you will need to do it in a serious manner, trust me when I say it took me a while to accept this. But once I finally did my trading did improve by a mile.
Anyways, often (most of the time actually) its possible to make trades just based of Price Action (candlestick and patterns) and the reason you are able to do that is because it works. In essence you are getting an overview of how Buyers and Sellers stand towards each other, each bar is a story being told. Now if you want an in-depth look you will need to read the Tape (time &Sales) and have a good look at Level 2 but most of the time that is not necessary. Then again if you only look at one you are only getting a part of the picture. Its always better to combine the tools with each other to get that extra percent of safety or statistical advantage. I guess the message here is to not limit yourself. A box is a box and shows price imbalance, that is true, but reading how price reacts within that zone or especially how it moved into a zone might give you an answer beforehand if the zone will hold or not. Reducing your risk and maximizing profits is what you need to be aiming for. PA and S/D are two tools that do work separately but much better in combination.
But why limit yourself to these two? You have seen many traders in here employ an arsenal of tools to give them an added advantage or as we call them structural confluences. A confluence is basically when we have many different technical analysis “rules” suddenly overlap with each other to give us that extra push in confidence we need to execute a trade. So while you’re at it looking for boxes and PA to develop add things such as Market Sentiment (bull or bear market which is easily identified on the higher timeframes). If the Sellers are in charge your odds of shorting successfully at a Supply zone are increased TENFOLD. Vice versa if bulls are in charge your odds at buying at demand are increased by a multitude. The market sentiment used as a confluence will always yield better results.
If you see a slightly overextended bull movement on an M5 and you see a pin into supply, you can short and you will probably make a decent profit. But if the sentiment is bullish and the timeframes are all pointing upwards, remember that all you are doing is fading a move or countertrend scalping and thus need to be aware of the limitations of this trade, and that even though you took a technically correct trade, it will not run into the next demand zone. The obvious exception to this obviously is if you are in a ranging market where you can just cherry-pick the tops and bottoms, but those are rare, especially on higher timeframes and they usually end soon.
Use trendlines, microtrendlines, Fibonacci etc etc, there are a bunch of tools out there which will be able to give you additional guidance for taking trades. The best tool handsdown remains PA, the problem here though once again is that its very flexible and erratic at times and it takes A BUNCH OF TIME to learn it properly, I have been dealing with it for what seems like ages now and I still make mistakes here and there especially on the exits. But if you are planning on trading seriously there is quite frankly no way around it. Simply watching for pinbars and engulfings isn’t enough, you need to step up your game, Pinbars and engulfings occur almost all the time, but most of them are useless if you are not able to put them structurally into context. A pinbar pointing down overlapping with previous bars without a clean structure is just as useless as an ex girl/boyfriend will be for your emotional state. They are irrelevant.
Which brings me to the issue of the good old saying: The trend is your friend. However ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS remember that the best Trend-Friend is the one on the Timeframe you are trading on. Always understand that the only two trends you need to be caring about is the timeframe you are trading on LIVE and executing trades on, and the Larger timeframe which involves market sentiments. There is no point in knowing or seeing how the m5 m15 m30 h1 and h4 look like if you are only trading one of them. Odds are if you’re not accustomed to being able to differentiate and having a feel for the timeframes you will be confused. Its like looking on an H4 chart and clearly seeing the trend is up and based on that decision entering long on an M5 timeframe. Odds are its still going to move down at least a couple of dozen pips hitting your stop. Understand that if you are trading on M5 you need to base decisions on M5 and only going long when M5 clearly is giving you signals to go long.
I guess it should be worthwhile to mention that you guys should forget about mentors and things like that. Trading is something that is not thought up, it is LEARNED and EARNED. There is literally no end in trading resources and material out there for you guys to take a look at. If you do not put effort into it then you might aswell stop now. Trading isn’t something you can do properly with just spending a few weeks looking at some “grail” system and trying to copycat it. Trading is as personal and unique as the people sitting behind the machines are. In fact in many ways being a trader is like being an artist or somebody trying to interpret what another artist has drawn/done.
Confusing analogy right? Let me elaborate a bit, in a sense everyone is an artist, we have our own particular world views which we are expressing with different tools such as brushes, different canvases, different color choices, the type of colors (oil or water etc), brushstroke techniques etc. How could you ever (seriously) ask another artist to explain something as personal and unique as his work to you? Its hard right? If not nearly impossible.
Just remember that when you paint and you want to be successful original you can copy things/tools/techniques from other artists but if you want to be truly great you need to COMBINE them thus creating something wholly unique which is your style. Now imagine the Markets to be an artist in itself, and you are trying to interpret the portrait they’re drawing using your techniques and trying to replicate (to an extent predict) their movements and especially their intentions.
Supply and Demand is just a resource/tool, but if you focus only on it in essence what you will become is a bad artist who is just a one trick pony. Now if you’re happy with that that’s fine but understand that other artists are going one step further and combining elements to create something truly remarkable, and THIS is what you should be striving for and right about now begin to understand.
Quite frankly I also have combat/cooking/baking/dancing/music analogies to describe markets but I thought this one was the most fitting at this point.
Remember always that you will need to understand the material and embrace it, there is no one that can mentor you, you either develop your own style by looking at what other people are doing and picking out the most successful/best components FOR YOU AS AN INDIVIDUAL and combining it further. Or you will fail, its just a matter of time.
I hope this lengthy article was somewhat helpful to you guys. Have fun.
