Wsparciem i trendem

polbanda

Wybiło na SL, ale druga próba z wejściem w górkę się udała. SL 20 pipów już przestawiony na BE. Czekam, co dalej.

michael7

polbanda pisze:Wybiło na SL, ale druga próba z wejściem w górkę się udała. SL 20 pipów już przestawiony na BE. Czekam, co dalej.

Wchodziłeś z limitem?

polbanda

Jakim limitem ? Z palca ...
na aussim czekamy na korekte . na kolejnej , 3 korekcie (nastepnej po tej) czyli w nastepnym tygodniu, dokladka pozycji, kolejne 2 loty.

polbanda

edek zdjety na BE , trzecia proba...
juz BE
edit: kolejny be ścięty....

beznadziejny dzien

polbanda

cholera moze gdizes przy tej linii sie za3mają

polbanda

Tak to sobie teraz widzę jednak.
ps. prosze sie nie sugerowac zleceniem - to screen z demo akurat ;p

polbanda

http://pl.wikiquote.org/wiki/Thomas_Alva_Edison
prawie każdy cytat tego Pana idealnie pasuje do foreksu

ciekawy artykul o STOPACH...

If a trader is glued to the monitor (often those are scalp traders), he may not put regular stops, but they always use (should use) disaster stops. Why? A regular stop for a scalper is not the most preferred option, since it’ll be hit frequently. Instead, traders employ own eyes as first level stops: once a scalper sees that it is time to leave a trade he pulls the trigger and exit (no need to wait for a stop to be hit).
But stop orders must still be there! Scalpers place (should place) disaster stops at some distance from the price action in order to avoid at least a portion of the market noise. Further placed stops allow scalping trades to mature while mini-profits are being chased.

Disaster stops - these are a must for any trading position! Disaster stops are put far away from the market price and represent the maximum allowed loss a trader is willing to take IF there is a disaster happening in the financial world. No one can foresee catastrophes, like, nature global disasters, terrorist attacks, political strikes etc - these factors are able to make a country vulnerable in seconds. Guess what happens with your trading platform and your account? The platform will freeze, while the account is going to melt down.

You must always have a disaster stop. If this helps you to embrace the importance of the mission, just imagine that the second after you place a stop a global Internet network will collapse ))) and won’t be “repaired” until next week. The phone line of your broker will be so busy, you will be waiting for days in line to hear a voice on the other side. Your only chance to save an account would be to buy a ticket and pay your broker a visit
I hope that by now you’ve got the message.

Now, back to earth and let’s talk about traders who trade with large time frames.

Protective stops are a must for position traders who use large time frames. Large time frames (3-4 hour charts and up) are difficult, actually impossible to monitor on a “glued-to-a-screen” basis. That’s why stops are needed to protect the capital from sudden shifts in the market that could bring losses larger than expected. While being away from the chart, a trader must be confident that his capital is immune from unwanted losses. On the large time frames choosing the best stop order is a relatively easy task as bigger market picture can be better analysed. A well placed stop loss on a high time frame is seldom hit wrong, e.g. when a trader is stopped out there is usually a real reason for that confirmed by a reverse in the trend.

An extra care should be applied to trading positions which are left overnight. Stops should always be in place. That’s the rule for your well being, well sleeping and well eating afterward.

If today I wasn’t able to convince you to trade with stops, please consider at least making one habit - if you go away from the screen, place a stop order! This way you will never learn what it is like to lose a large portion of your account in no time, or even worse - get a margin call and be left with little to no money to continue trading.

** Forex Dark Lord **

If we all agree, that a stop loss would prevent an account wipeout or a margin call, then the question is: Are we trading with little equity? are we over leveraging?
or is it that we cannot bear to see a negative position for too long?

No właśnie, wprawne oko wystarczy by zamknąć stratną pozycję w porę... STOP na wypadek kataklizmów jest jedyny potrzebny (100-200 pips). Ale tutaj mowa o skalperach, którzy jakoś odnajdują się w szumie i przewidują ruch. Szumu nie da się dokładnie przewidzieć więc też problem ze stopami.
źródło: http://forexdarkside.com/trade-with-or- ... s-in-forex

polbanda

STOP LOSS - CZY TO MA SENS?
Zdecydowana większość porażek na rynkach lewarowanych spowodowana jest niewłaściwym umiejscowieniem poziomów stop loss. Większość z nas bowiem właściwie ustala kierunek, w którym podążają ceny w wyznaczonym przez siebie TFie. Stop lossy umiejscawiamy jednak w granicach szumu dlatego są one "trafiane" przed osiągnięciem naszego targetu. Poniżej nieco informacji na ten temat.

Setting Stop-Losses

If you read many of the articles on the Internet about setting appropriate stop-losses, no doubt you'll have come across advice like the following �

Calculate your stop-losses so that you never risk more than 2% to 5% of your account.
Always set your stops just below the support when you're long and just above the resistance when you're short.
Set your stops outside the market's 'range' etc, etc...

These bits of advice might be very useful, but there is one key piece of information that usually seems to be missing, particularly when it comes to mechanical trading systems. That information is that using a stop-loss of any size (other than a very, very large one) almost always degrades the performance of any mechanical trading system. It's true that a good trade rarely moves to far against you, but I find that almost all the advice I read severely underestimates just how 'far against you' the price can go before it should be considered 'to far'.

No doubt most of the writers that advise using stops of 30-50 pips or whatever believe their advice is good advice and offer it in good faith. However, a lot of this advice seems to come from seminars offered by various bucket shop brokers and some unscrupulous spread betting companies who take the other side of their client's trades. It's in these company's interests for their clients to be over leveraged and lose. It is almost impossible to pick a market's exact top or bottom; this means that after you enter a trade if the price goes 50 or 100 pips against you it doesn't necessarily mean that you were wrong, and in fact is perfectly normal and is to be expected. Using to tight a stop-loss therefore usually means that when you're right you're wrong as you get stopped out before the trend moves the market in your trade's favour. With to tight a stop-loss you're wrong when you're wrong and wrong when you're right! If a large stop-loss means you're risking more than x% of your account on single trade then you need to use less leverage, not tighten the stop.

To illustrate the effect of tight stop-losses on a mechanical trading system I am going to use stop-losses of various sizes on an 80 breakout system with a 20 day time-based exit. Whenever the EUR/USD closes higher than it has ever closed in the previous 80 days we enter a long position, which will be automatically exited after 20 days or when the stop-loss is hit, which ever happens first. And whenever the EUR/USD closes lower than it has ever closed in the previous 80 days we enter a short position, which again will be automatically exited after 20 days or when the stop-loss is hit. The stop-losses will not 'trail' and will stay fixed at x number of points above or below the market when the trade was first entered. I will test this system with stops of 200, 400, 600, 800, 1000, 1200, 1400 and 1600 pips.

The results of this experiment are as follows �

With a 200 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 177
Number of losses: 173
Percentage of winning trades: 50.6%
Number of pips won: 55,614.1
Number of pips lost: 30,379.9
Win to loss ratio: 1.83 to 1
--------------------------------
With a 400 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 212
Number of losses: 138
Percentage of winning trades: 60.6%
Number of pips won: 62,480.3
Number of pips lost: 34,174.2
Win to loss ratio: 1.83 to 1
---------------------------------
With a 600 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 214
Number of losses: 136
Percentage of winning trades: 61.1%
Number of pips won: 62,911.3
Number of pips lost: 32,347.9
Win to loss ratio: 1.94 to 1
---------------------------------
With a 800 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 218
Number of losses 132
Percentage of winning trades: 62.3%
Number of pips won: 64,504.3
Number of pips lost: 29,576.2
Win to loss ratio: 2.18 to 1
--------------------------------
With a 1000 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 219
Number of losses: 131
Percentage of winning trades: 62.6%
Number of pips won: 64,836.3
Number of pips lost: 28,718.7
Win to loss ratio: 2.26 to 1
----------------------------------
With a 1200 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 219
Number of losses: 131
Percentage of winning trades: 62.6%
Number of pips won: 64,836.3
Number of pips lost: 28,918.7
Win to loss ratio: 2.24 to 1
-----------------------------------
With a 1400 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 219
Number of losses: 131
Percentage of winning trades: 62.6%
Number of pips won: 64,836.3
Number of pips lost: 29,118.7
Win to loss ratio: 2.23 to 1
---------------------------------
With a 1600 pip stop-loss
Number of wins: 219
Number of losses: 131
Percentage of winning trades: 62.6%
Number of pips won: 64,836.3
Number of pips lost: 29,318.7
Win to loss ratio: 2.21 to 1

Setting Stop-Losses - My Conclusion

The return of trading this system with no stop-loss before the costs of trading is 2.20 to 1. With a stop loss of 600 pips or less this system's returns were seriously degraded, whilst the best performing large stop-loss of 1,000 pips performed only slightly better than 2.20 to 1. My conclusion is therefore that any stop-loss, other than a very, very large one, almost always degrades the performance of any mechanical trading system.

However, as the results show, systems that do use stops of even a few hundred pips can still be very profitable. I would therefore caution the reader against using tight stops and strongly advise using low leverage as a part of a technical trading system. However, tight-stop losses may have a part to play when trading using charts and support and resistance and also depend upon the state of the market � I will have to perform some tests on that as well...

źródło: http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/stop-losses.html

Ja mam wskaźnik, który dla ryzyka 100% straty ma ustawione 1000 pips SL'a. Czyli stracę kapitał dopiero po obsuwie 1000 pipsów + kredyt od brokera ewentualnie. Wartość, którą wyświetla wskaźnik trochę pomniejszam i w ten sposób mogę skalpować zgodnie z wyższym trendem uciekając przed szumem.

Often, trades that start out badly eventually become profitable, if the trade is just given some time.

Is it possible to trade successfully with no stop loss? The short answer is yes, but for this strategy to work, traders must only trade in the direction of the trend, avoid using leveraging/margin facilities and be bullish only on currencies that are fundamentally strong. The buy and hold strategy is not popular among currency traders, and it will never be as long as Forex brokers offer high leveraging on Forex trading accounts and traders take the bait. While the use of margin can accelerate the growth of a trading account, it is also a double-edged sword that can cause a margin call if things get out-of-hand.

źródło: http://www.brighthub.com/money/investin ... 62723.aspx

Coś jeszcze o kosztach tradingu

Trading costs money either paid through the spread or the brokers commission, you cannot really trade for free. The shorter the time frame you trade on the less time the trade is likely to be held for and the smaller the number of pips you're going to win. For example, say your Forex broker had a spread of 2 pips and you traded using five-minute charts winning an average of 20 pips on a winning trade and losing an average of 20 pips on a losing trade. With such small numbers your commission would be 10% of your winnings and your loses would be 10% bigger. An average win in this example would therefore be 18 pips with an average loss being 22 pips. With these commissions and these trades you would have to be right at least 55% of the time just to break even! The shorter the time frame the more you have to trade, and the more you trade the more expensive your trading becomes.

źródło: http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/TradingTimeFrames.html

Więcej w temacie:
http://www.myforexdot.org.uk/stop-losse ... rgets.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ttirdx-Xho [szczegolnie poczatek, gdzie facet mowi dlaczego czasem jest taka kolysanka]
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/trading ... ding-1.php

i coś o stop huntingu
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/fo ... unting.asp

PODSUMOWANIE:
(a) - stosuj stop lossy "kryzysowe" na wypadek krachu lub kataklizmu,
(b) - nie stosuj stop lossów, ale zmniejsz lewar do minimalnych wartości,
(c) - stosuj stop lossy tzw. książkowe, czyli wynikające z wykresu, a nie procenta kapitału
(d) - można też w ogóle nie stosować stop lossów, ale trzeba mieć kilka źródeł dostępu do internetu oraz być "przyklejonym do monitora", choć dla niektórych może to być mniej stresujące niż ciasne stopy i frustracja po ich wycięciu... ważne jest tutaj zarządzanie kapitałem; jeżeli gramy 0.10 lota przy kilkunastu tysiącach na koncie, to kwestia obciążenia psychicznego jest minimalna.

Nie stosuj stop lossów "psychologicznych", tzn. takich które korelują z Twoim myśleniem życzeniowym. Ustawiasz ciasnego stopa bo wierzysz, że cena nie może do niego dojść, jesteś chciwy i myślisz, że utrafiłeś dołek/szczyt cenowy i cena już nigdy tam nie powróci. W większości przypadków Cię wytnie.

StopLossa ustawiaj w miejscu, które zaneguje Twój pogląd nt. rynku, a nie w miejscu w którym Twoje zasady MM Ci każą. Rynek nie zna Twoich zasad MM i na pewno ich nie będzie respektował. MUSISZ SIĘ PODPORZĄDKOWAĆ. MM dobierz do rynku. Nie oczekuj, że rynek dostosuje się do Twoich x% straty. 2% można stracić na Stop lossie wynoszącym 20 pipsów, a można stracić 1% na stopie 200 pipsowym. Koncentruj się na dobraniu odpowiedniego lota, aby był zgodny z Twoimi zasadmi, a nie liczby pipsów co do których masz wiarę, że rynek ich nie zrobi wbrew Tobie - bo zrobi.

przykłady:
(a) - http://www.forex.nawigator.biz/dyskusje ... p?id=40250
(c) - http://www.forex.nawigator.biz/dyskusje ... p?id=40249

polbanda

Kiwi można ładnie przyatakować...
Długoterminowo UP, ale już 4 odbicie od krótkoterminowej DOWN LT

polbanda

nie zalapelm sie na nocna jazde w dol na kiwim.
teraz long ... stop "in da head" pod dolkiem ;p