http://www.thestreet.com/story/11743844 ... itics.html
ossible Election Outcomes and Probabilities
A relatively comfortable electoral college win by Obama in which the Democrats keep control of the Senate -- 40% probability (baseline expectation): The fiscal drag is about 1%-1.5%, and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-2%. Republicans briefly oppose Democratic policy but quickly acquiesce to Democrat policy initiatives. Stocks are range-bound and have limited downside (S&P 500 1390-1400) and limited upside (S&P 500 1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A narrow Obama presidential win and the Democrats retain control of the Senate -- 15% probability: The fiscal drag is 1.5%-2% (Republicans' opposition to Democratic policy continues for a few months, but, ultimately, they acquiesce. Stocks are range-bound and have limited downside (1390-1400) and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A narrow Obama presidential win and the Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 10% probability: The fiscal drag is 1.5%-2.5% (as partisanship escalates), and 2013 real GDP is barely positive. Stocks have 1350-1400 downside and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A narrow Romney presidential win and Democrats keep control of the Senate -- 20% probability: The fiscal drag is 2%-3% (as partisanship intensifies), and 2013 real GDP is flat to negative. After an initial but brief market rally, stocks have 1350-1400 downside and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A narrow Romney presidential win and Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 10% probability: The fiscal drag is 1%-2% -- Democrats' opposition to Republican policy continues for a while but begins to abate as time moves forward -- and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-1.5%. Stocks have limited downside (1390-1400) and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A relatively comfortable electoral college win by Romney and Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 5% probability: The fiscal drag is about 1.0%-1.5% -- Democrats' opposition to Republican policy continues for a brief period after which they give in to the Republican agenda -- and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-2%. Stocks will likely rally in the near term. Over the balance of the year, equities would have limited downside (1390-1400) and upside to about 1470-1500.
pod same SP500 i inne surowce co pompuja jak w amoku hahah
