DayTrading: Wtorek 5.02.2013

[Tommy_Boss]

A co powiecie na XAG/USD piękny trójkąt się tworzy na H4 ?

[pkubiu]

czy ktoś ma info o kangi byłą jakaś gołębia wypowiedz po RBA
zapakowałam L na 1,390 i zastanawiam się kolejnym locie

[Tommy_Boss]

Ładne foto

Popatrz na Edka i Jena

[crok.]

goldmany zrobily tp to czytam teraz ze wracaja obawy o wlochy i hiszpanie buhahahaha

[pr7emo]

odjechał pociąg z korektą

S na edka

[ForexTig3r]

05/02/2013 Wtorek 10:42
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/308223922

[pr7emo]

eurozłoty ma wydawać by się mogło atrakcyjną cenę, wczoraj było duże wahanie kursu, zamierzam to wykorzystać

[pkubiu]

no ale na umocnienie S na 4,21 a kto na kangi bo tred jednak powinien byc wzrosty bo straszna konsola bo osłabieniu

na edku przed danymi dam L 1,3450

[pr7emo]

no ale na umocnienie S na 4,21 a kto na kangi bo tred jednak powinien byc wzrosty bo straszna konsola bo osłabieniu

na edku przed danymi dam L 1,3450

nbp mówił że oni w tym roku nie chcą dużych zmienności (złoty był najbardziej zmienny na świecie), ponadto 4,1 wydawał się właściwym kursem
4,21 to raczej górny opór, a dolny poziom zależy od kondycji firm które mają interes w euro

-- Dodano: wt 05-02-2013, 8:26 --

pasowało by wziąć eLkę na ejka jak się klimat z korektą ochłodzi

[niemiaszek]

Hello

EU: Tuesday allows a further glimpse at the state of the eurozone economy, with the
release of both national and EMU services PMI data for January.
Spanish PMI data is released at 0813GMT, followed by Italy at 0843GMT, France at
0848GMT and Germany at 0853GMT. Overall EMU data is set for release at 0858GMT.
There is further eurozone data set for release at 1000GMT, when both Italian
January flash HICP numbers and EMU December retail trade numbers will cross the
wires.
At 1230GMT, Switzerland's SNB Board member Fritz Zerbrugg speaks at a securities
conference, in Zurich.



UK: UK services PMI data for January will be released at 0928GMT.

UK PRESS: The FT says the ECB will need to hire around 2,000 new staff for
banking supervision, according to an internal report commissioned for ECB head
Mario Draghi.

UK PRESS: The UK Treasury has begun negotiations for the 2015/16 spending round,
the FT says, with some departments facing cuts of up to 30%.



US: Across the pond, at 1330GMT, Federal Reserve Gov. Elizabeth Duke is slated to
give a speech on community banking to the Southeastern Bank Management and
Directors Conference, in Duluth, Georgia.
At 1355GMT, the Redbook Average for the Feb 2 week will be released.
Further US data is released at 1500GMT, January ISM non-manufacturing numbers
will be released, along with the February IBD/TIPP Optimism Index.
Last on the calendar, at 1800GMT, the US Congressional Budget Office publishes
its fiscal year 2014 budget report.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.3515, the rate having continued its
corrective pullback off Friday's post US payrolls highs of $1.3711 through
Monday's session as markets pared back longs on political concerns in Spain and
Italy. Rate touched a low of $1.3505 before recovering into the close. Rate
touched a high of $1.3521 into Asian trading before turning lower again, the
break below $1.3500 allowing rate to grind its way down to extended lows of
$1.3481, holding heavy into Europe. Rate currently trades around $1.3585. Euro
unwinds in straight euro-dollar and via the crosses continue to provide the main
weight, with market keeping focus on the political developments, and the effect
on EMU periphery bond spreads, with attention also turning toward Thursday's ECB
rate announcement and press conference. Bids are seen into $1.3480 with stops
below, a break to expose next bids at $1.3575/70 with larger stops below. Minor
demand then seen into $1.3550 ahead of $1.3530. More stops noted below.
Resistance $1.3515/20 ahead of $1.3545/50. EMU services PMI data due this
morning, Spain up at 0813GMT through to EMU at 0858GMT. EMU retail sales due at
1000GMT. US non mfg ISM the interest into the afternoon (1500GMT).

EURO-DOLLAR: Reported stops sub $1.3480 (Asia low $1.3481) targeted and
triggered into early Europe, the added weight taking the rate to extended lows
of $1.3474 before profit take demand emerged to soak up the added supply.
However, recovery efforts, as was seen Monday, remain shallow and seen keeping
focus on the down side. Next support seen into $1.3465/60 and $1.3445/40.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5762 after rate had extended its recovery off Monday's
extended lows of $1.5683, seen into opening week trade in Asia. The rate had
seen the main downside drive Friday as euro-sterling had been driven to highs of
stg0.8711, with the corrective pullback in the cross through Monday driven by a
general paring of long euro positions on Eurozone political concerns, the cross
trading down to stg0.8569 which in turn allowed cable to push up to $1.5772
ahead of Monday's close. The recovery in sterling was aided by reported middle
eastern sovereign wealth fund buys during Monday's European morning, with
squeezed spec shorts then adding to the upside momentum. Euro-sterling continued
to take direction from euro-dollar in Asia, extending lows to stg0.8555, the
move again providing buoyancy for cable as it countered the negative effect from
euro-dollar's continued slide. Cable was held between $1.5745/67 in Asia. UK
services PMI due at 0928GMT to provide the main domestic interest, though moves
to continue to take direction from euro activity. Cable support seen at $1.5745
ahead of $1.5725/20 and into $1.5700/1.5680. Resistance $1.5770/80, $1.5800/10.
Euro-sterling demand into stg0.8550, resistance stg0.8580 ahead of stg0.8600.


YEN: Dollar-yen's corrective pullback from early Monday highs at Y93.18 extended
to a NY low of Y92.21 before closing the session just off that level at Y92.27.
Stops below Y92.20 became the early target in Asia, the triggered sales taking
the rate to an extended low of Y91.98 before strong Japanese demand emerged into
the dip. Rate recovered to Y92.56 before getting knocked back to Y92.21 post
Tokyo fix, but again the dip quickly attracted demand and allowed rate to edge
back, settling between Y92.35/45 ahead of the European open. Technical traders
continue to call for higher levels, highlighting levels into Y94.00 as a near
term target, though Japanese exporter sell interest seen as the first upside
hurdle, offers from this area now seen lowered into Y93.00. Euro-yen continued
to trade with an underlying soft tone, the rate extending its corrective
pullback from Friday highs at Y126.97 to Y125.70 into Monday's NY close, with
early Asia taking on to Y124.18. This extended dip quickly attracted buyers, the
recovery able to touch Y125.01. Failure to build above Y125.00 saw rate drift
lower again before settling between Y124.50-65 in Europe.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Tuesday, weighed by the
stronger yen. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 213.43 points, or 1.9%, at 11046.92.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 14.63 points at 941.12.
Market breadth indicators saw 34 issue higher, 186 lower and 5 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 3.395 bn shares.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading moderately higher Tuesday, extending
its gains seen during the previous day. Spot gold ended Monday's session
up $6.25 at $1673.70/oz with no fresh catalyst seen to break prices away
from their current tight trading range. Markets in general became
subject of a sharp risk correction lower Monday amid fresh political
turmoil within the Spanish government, which saw some moderate haven
flows back into gold, albeit in a limited basis. Spot gold prices have
remained marginally buoyant during Asian traded hours this morning,
despite an early slip into negative territory. Spot gold has edged its
way back higher from initial lows of $1670.65/oz to an intra-day high of
$1676.97/oz and now trade at $1676.10/oz, up $2.40 on the session.
Metals brokers report offers working above the market around $1692/oz,
with medium bids still showing below at $1660/oz and $1663/oz.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading moderately lower Tuesday,
extending their sharp decline seen during the previous day. NYMEX March
light sweet crude oil futures settled down $1.60 at $96.17 per barrel,
after trading in a $95.96 to $97.76 range. WTI prices became subject of
some selling pressure after the recent risk rally across Europe staged a
correction lower as investor sentiment became rattled by the latest
allegations of corruption within the Spanish government. This morning
WTI prices have been held in a narrow range after Monday's sharp
declines, edging back from an intra-day low of $95.91 to highs of $96.14
a barrel and March WTI futures now trade at $96.00 a barrel, down 17
cents on the session. In terms of supply, the American Petroleum
Institute (API) will release its weekly report late Tuesday, while the
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly data
Wednesday at 1530GMT.

OIL: US commercial crude stocks likely rose 3 million barrels for the reporting
week ended Feb. 1, in line with seasonal norms and an expected decline in US
refinery runs, Platts says citing its survey of analysts. The American Petroleum
Institute (API) will release its weekly report Tuesday while the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly data Wednesday. The EIA
five-year average shows US crude stocks typically build between 3-4 million
barrels during this reporting period, and analysts surveyed expect US refinery
utilization rates to dip by 0.75 percentage point on an increase in refinery
maintenance, Platts says.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX March natural gas prices are trading higher Tuesday,
extending their gains from the previous day. March natural gas futures
ended Monday's session up 1.4 cents at $3.315 per million British
thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a $3.259 to $3.354 range.
Prices came in for some technical support after some early selling,
underpinned by some cold Northeast and Midwest weather forecasts for the
next few days. March natural gas futures have continued to edge their
way higher this morning, advancing from an initial intra-day low of
$3.324 to highs of $3.340 and now trade at $3.329 per mln Btu, up from
last night's close of $3.315 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3550, $1.3600, $1.3650
* Dollar-yen; Y91.50, Y92.00, Y92.50, Y93.00
* Cable; $1.5700
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2300
* Aussie; $1.0340, $1.0410, $1.0450, $1.0455, $1.0500
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2450
* Aussie-yen; Y96.50


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Greece, Belgium and European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
all come to the Eurozone sovereign T-bill market Tuesday. Greece will be the
first to the market with plans to issue new 26-week Aug 9 T-bill for E625mln.
Belgium will be up next with a tap of 3-month May 16 T-bill and 6-month Jul 18
t-bill for indicative target range of E2.8-E3.3bln. Finally the ESM will issue
new 3-month May 9 Bill for up to E2.0bln. To recap, on Monday Netherlands sold
E2.76bln 3-month DTc at average yield of 0.00% and sold E1.03bln 6-month DTC at
average yield of 0.021%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.995 3-month BTF at
average yield 0.011%, E1.89bln 6-month BTF at average yield 0.047% and E1.497bln
12-month BTF at average yield 0.162%.

AUSTRIA AUCTION PREVIEW: Austria's Federal Financing Agency (AFFA) taps its
7-year benchmark 1.95% June 2019 RAGB and also 10-year benchmark 3.40% Nov 2022
RAGB issues Tuesday for E1.1bln combined size. Overall, Austria plans to sell
between E20.0bln to E24bln in RAGB bond issuance in 2013, having sold around
E22.0bln worth of RAGB bonds last year, and the AFFA has already indicated that
it plans to issue one or two syndicated bonds in 2013. With Austria facing its
first redemption not until Oct 20, market strategists see any potential new
10-year syndication deal not likely towards the end of Q1 at the earliest. For
comparison purposes, the 1.95% June 2019 RAGB trades at 1.304% mid-yield and
most strategists see this as rich. This issue was last sold on Dec 11 for
E550mln at an average yield 1.021% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56 times. The
3.40% 2022 RAGB issue trades at 1.939% and was last sold on Jan 8 for E550mln at
an average yield of 1.84% and then covered 3.47 times. Auction results are due
around 1015GMT.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a 3-month T-bill
maturing May 16, 2013, and re-open 6-month T-bill maturing Jul 18, 2013 for an
indicative amount of E2.8-E3.3bln on Tuesday. This will be the first of two taps
of the May 16 T-bill, and with only E2.821bln outstanding, demand could be high.
Mid-yield is currently seen trading around 0.035%, while at the last 3-month
T-bill auction on Jan 15 the Belgium Treasury allotted E1.65bln at average yield
0.012% and covered 2.34 times. As for the 6-month Jul 18 T-bill, this will be
tapped again in April, while mid-yield is seen at 0.065%, and is likely to
attract investors looking for yield pick up. At the last 6-month T-bill auction
on Jan 8, E1.54bln was allotted at average yield of 0.011% and covered 2.23
times. There will be no T-bill redemption this week leaving a potential net cash
negative to the tune of E3.3bln. Results are due to be announced around 1040GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Feb 05 ESM bill auction
- Feb 05 European Jan services PMI
- Feb 05 France President Hollande & EU Barroso speaks in EU Parliament
- Feb 05 Portuguese FinMin Gaspar speaks in Lisbon
- Feb 06 ECB bank lending survey
- Feb 06 EU Parliament debates plans on 2014-2020 Budget
- Feb 07 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference
- Feb 07/08 European Leaders summit in Brussel
- Feb 07 Spain sells Bono bonds
- Feb 08 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.975bln
- Feb 08 ECB announces 3-year LTRO payback total amount
- Feb 11 Eurogroup meeting
- Feb 12 ECOFIN meeting
- Feb 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- TBD Confirmation hearing, committee vote, Senate confirmation of Lew as US
Treasury Secretary
- Feb 05 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-11/15/2042 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 05 Fed Gov. Duke at Southeastern Bk Mgt & Dirs Conf in Duluth, GA 0830ET
- Feb 05 US Congressional Budget Office releases fiscal year 2014-23 budget &
econ report at 1300ET
- Feb 05-06 US Senate Democrats hold policy retreat in Annapolis
- Feb 05 UST auctions 4wk, $25bn 52wk at 1130ET
- Feb 05 US Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee meets
- Feb 05 Freddie Mac Reference Note announcement
- Feb 06 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 11/15/2018-01/31/2020 $3-$3.75bn
- Feb 06 US Treasury announces 3-10-30Y refunding auctions at 0900ET
- Feb 06 Treasury STRIPS at 1500ET
- Feb 07 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-11/15/2042 $1.25-$1.75bn