DayTrading: Wtorek 12.03.2013

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Tuesday's calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of German February
wholesale prices and February final HICP data. Harmonised inflation is seen up
0.8% m/m, up 1.8% year on year.
French January current account data will be released at 0745GMT. At 0900GMT,
Italian February final HICP data will cross the wires.

EUROZONE: UBS economists have lowered their inflation forecasts for the 4
biggest economies in the euro area and as a result for the eurozone as a whole.
They now forecast CPI to slow to 1.9% in 2013 (previously 2.1%) from 2.5% in
2012 and to 1.6% (previously 1.8%) in 2014. They cite three factors for slowing
trend in inflation - very gradual recovery in the euro area, less need for
additional tax hikes and expectations for drop in euro-denominated oil prices in
2014. Their forecast for ECB policy rate is, however, the same - on hold at
0.75% for the foreseeable future.

DENMARK: Fitch affirmed Denmark's sovereign rating at 'AAA'; outlook stable.

GERMAN PRESS: The German government predicts lower debt for this year than
originally anticipated, reports Deutschlandfunk.In 2014, the German Finance
Ministry expects E6.4 bn which is about 50% less than what had originally been
drawn up in this year's financial plan. Less debt is expected because the
government is planning to cut down on extras for health funds. Lower interest
rates will also contribute to lees debt.



UK: U.K. data is released at 0930GMT and includes January Industrial Production and
January Trade Data. Industrial production is seen up 0.1% on month, but lower by
1.1% on year. Total trade is seen down stg 3.2 bn on the month.
At 1130GMT, UK Chancellor Osborne leads Treasury questions, in Parliament, and
will likely faced heated challenges from Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls.
At 1500GMT, the March NIESR Monthly GDP forecast will hit the
screens.

UK PRESS: The Times says public sector entities in the UK are set to go on a
"hiring spree" that could see public sector job growth outpace the private
sector for the first time in 3 years.

UK PRESS: The strength in the UK jobs market, with business and finance leading
the way higher, is largely due to the number of people employed by banks to deal
with the PPI scandal, a survey by Manpower shows, the Independent reports.

UK PRESS: The FT says German lender Commerzbank is lining up bids from private
equity groups for its UK property business, with the value seen in the stg 5 bn
region, the FT says.

UK PRESS: The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows the Conservatives narrowing the gap
on Labour, although the Opposition still maintain a healthy lead. The poll shows
Labour down 2 at 39%, Conservatives up 2% at 31 and the LibDems up 2 at 15%.




US: Data starts at 1145GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman
Store Sales data for the March 8 week. At 1255GMT, the Redbook Average for the
March 8 week will be released.
The last scheduled release is seen at 1800GMT, when the US Feb Treasury
Statement will be released.

US PRESS: Writing in the WSJ Tuesday, Congressman Paul Ryan says House
Republican's will today lay out a plan to balance the US Budget in 10 years,
without increasing taxes.





FOREX: BNPP FX strategists see the euro and commodity block in a "no-man's land"
and trading strong on the crosses, but softer against the US dollar. BNPP
economists do not see Friday's solid payroll numbers as a game changer for the
Fed "as it doesn't constitute 'significant improvement' in labor markets," they
say. "But the risk is the market continues to push USD higher until the March 20
FOMC meeting, when the Fed releases revised quarterly forecasts," the
strategists say. Only weaker data sets might put a damper of the dollar's recent
resilience, they say. BNPP sees Wednesday's US retail sales report (MNI median
at +0.5%, range -0.5% to +1.0%) as key. "The street generally looks for a decent
headline, but our economists pencil in a negative reading (-0.3% m/m) ex-autos
and gasoline, reflecting the impact of the payrolls tax holiday expiry," the
strategists say. A weaker-than-expected reading "could temper USD strength
against the commodity currencies," BNPP says.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3046 after rate had clawed its way up to a
session high of $1.3054, the rate extending its recovery off Friday's post NFP
lows of $1.2955. Early Asia extended the corrective pullback, pressing the rate
to early lows of $1.3026, the main weight seen as traders eased euro-yen away
from the Y126.00 area. Euro-dollar recovered to $1.3039 before turning lower
again before settling around $1.3030 into Europe. Moves through Asia were mainly
driven by euro-yen action, this rate reacting to comments from deputy governor
designate Iwata which tempered earlier yen sales after reports that Kuroda would
call an early BOJ meeting, adding that a policy change wouldn't be seen Mar20,
most probably at the next meeting. Euro-dollar demand seen into $1.3020/10, more
at $1.3000 with a break here to open a deeper move back to NY lows at $1.2988.
Further demand seen into $1.2978 (76.4% $1.2955-1.3054), a break here to expose
Friday's lows at $1.2955, placing barrier interest at $1.2950 also in focus.
Offers remain between $1.3045/55, more toward $1.3080. German inflation data at
0700GMT in an otherwise data light session. Subdued trade conditions remain,
most seen needing a clear break of the $1.2950/1.3050 range to boost activity.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3125/35 Friday Mar8 high/$1.3128 100-dma/$1.3140 stops
$1.3090/100 Strong offers
$1.3060/65 Medium offers/$1.3070 Stops
$1.3054 Monday Mar11 high
$1.3047 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3020 ***Current mkt rate 0718GMT Tuesday
$1.3011 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3016
$1.3010/00 Medium demand/$1.3004 50% $1.2955-1.3054; 76.4% $1.2988-1.3054
$1.2988-80 NY low-Monday Mar11 low
$1.2955/50 Strong demand/$1.2950 Option barrier/Stops/$1.2955 2013 low Mar8
post NFP
$1.2935/25 Medium demand/$1.2925 option barrier/$1.2920 Stops
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach/Option barrier
$1.2880 Strong demand
$1.2865-50 Medium demand/$1.2850 Option barrier/$1.2864 200-dma


CABLE: Closed in NY Monday at $1.4914, after easing from a recovery high of
$1.4933 after rate had seen lows of $1.4866 earlier in the day. The late NY
pullback extended to $1.4910 into early Asia before rate edged to $1.4919
(session highs) before the corrective pullback continued. Rate made a show under
$1.4900 at $1.4898, recovered to $1.4912 before pressing to an overnight low of
$1.4885. Failure to push back above $1.4900 saw rate drift lower ahead of the
European open, approaching the mentioned overnight low at writing. All attention
on today's release of UK production data at 0930GMT with most preparing for
another set of disappointing data (medians IP +0.1% m/m, mfg flat m/m). Market
seen well positioned for this outcome so an expected, or better than expected
outcome, could catch the market wrong footed. Support seen into $1.4885/80
($1.4882 76.4% $1.4866-1.4933), a break here to expose that $1.4866 level, with
stronger demand seen into $1.4855/50. Resistance remains at $1.4930/35 ahead of
$1.4950/60. Euro-sterling was contained by stg0.8740/50 through Asia.

CABLE: Rate pressed to extended lows of $1.4878 as a UK clearer sold into the
European open from $1.4885, but market said to have soaked up supply fairly
well. Rate trades back around $1.4895.

CABLE: MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.5050/60 Medium offers/$1.5047 Friday Mar8 high
$1.5025 Large option expiry
$1.5000/10 Strong offers/$1.5015-20 Stops/$1.4995 option expiry
$1.4980/85 Medium offers
$1.4945/65 Medium offers
$1.4933 Recovery high Monday off $1.4866
$1.4920 Medium offers/$1.4906 50% $1.4945-1.4866/$1.4903 recovery off
$1.4866
$1.4900 Option expiry
$1.4896 **Current market rate 0731GMT Monday
$1.4878 Int. Day low Europe, Asia $1.4885
$1.4866 Monday Mar11 low
$1.4855/50 Medium demand/$1.4852 1.618% swing proj. $1.4985-1.5200 recovery
$1.4830/20 Medium demand
$1.4800 Strong demand on approach


YEN: Dollar-yen extended its recovery into early Asia, the rate pushing on from
a NY close at Y96.29 to Y96.71 as traders reacted to a press report suggesting
BOJ Governor nominee Kuroda could call an early, unscheduled, BOJ meeting Mar20.
This bringing forward of possible action ahead of FY end caused yen to be sold
off across the board. Rate dropped back to Y96.43, some saw it as a possible
react to the release of better than expected Feb consumer confidence data (44.3
vs Jan 43.3). Rate recovered to Y96.65 before turning lower again, Dep BOJ
Governor nominee Iwata tempering some of the market speculation when he
suggested that no monetary policy change to be seen at Mar20 meeting, that would
come at the April meet. Dollar-yen pressed to lows of Y96.36 ahead of the
European open, with rate holding heavy at writing. However, most reports read
still favour dollar-yen higher, Ichimoku analysts now setting sights on Y98.60,
with recent calls that we could see Y100.00 gaining more supporters. Euro-yen
saw similar moves, the rate pushing to an early high of Y126.04 before rate was
pressed away from the Y126.00 area to a low of Y125.37 and holding heavy ahead
of the European open.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Tuesday. The Nikkei 225
was lower by 34.24 points, or 0.28%, at 12314.81. Into the close, the
broader-based TOPIX was lower by 2.61 points at 1037.37. Market breadth
indicators saw 74 issue higher, 141 lower and 10 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 2.7645 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2950, $1.2975, $1.3000(large), $1.3050
* Dollar-yen; Y95.00(large), Y95.50, Y95.60, Y96.00, Y96.40, Y96.50, Y96.75
* Euro-yen; Y124.70
* Cable; $1.4900, $1.4995, $1.5025(large)
* Sterling-yen; Y142.00
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2200, Chf1.2350
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0330
* Aussie-yen; Y96.00
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0280


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Spain, Italy and Belgium are all due to come to the
Eurozone sovereign T-bill market Tuesday. Spain will be first up with plans to
re-open 6-month Sep 20 Letra and issue new 12-month Mar 14, 2014 Letra for an
indicative amount of E4.5bln to E5.5bln. Italy plans to issue new 12-month Mar
14, 2014 BOT for E7.75bln. Finally Belgium plan to tap 3-month Jun 30 T-bill and
issue new 12-month Mar 13, 2014 T-bill for between E2.8-E3.3bln. To recap on
auctions so far this week, on Monday, Germany sold E3.24bln 6-month Sep 11
Bubill at average yield 0.0103%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.999 3-month
Jun 6 BTF at average yield 0.015%, E1.798bln 6-month Aug 8 BTF at average yield
0.029% and E1.995bln 12-month Mar 6 BTF at average yield 0.088%.


DUTCH AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) taps its 3-year
benchmark 0.00% Apr 2016 DSL issue Tuesday for between E2.5bln-E3.5bln
indicative size. This is the first tap of this issue since its launch on Jan 8
for E3.2bln at an average yield of 0.318% and average price of 98.97. The issue
currently trades at 0.404% and above recent rich levels of 0.3425%. The auction
comes after the Netherlands hiked its funding requirement for this year by
E0.8bln to approximately E91.1bln. That said, the DSTA's intended call on the
capital market remains unchanged at approximately E50bln and the call on the
money market has now been increased to E41.1bln from 40.3bln. The DSTA has so
far raised E8bln in the capital market YTD and has a heavy month coming up in
March with launch of a new 10-year DSL via DDA on Mar 19 and also re-opening of
the 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL for E2.0bn-E3.0bn on Mar 26. Auction results are due
around 0920GMT.

SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico will re-open 6-month Sep
20, 2013 Letra and issue new 12-month Mar 14, 2014 Letra for an indicative
amount of E4.5-E5.5bln Tuesday. Yields have held relatively steady following
both the stalemate Italian elections and the rating downgrade of Italy over the
weekend, as demand for short term yield outweighs the negative news. The 6-month
Letra mid-yield is currently seen at 0.83bps while at the last 6-month auction
back on Feb 12, the Tesoro sold E2.547bln at average yield of 0.859% with cover
2.88 times. As for the new Mar 12, 2014 Letra, there is currently no grey market
but the Feb 21 Letra mid-yield in seen at 1.315%, and is expected to trade at
discount of around 8-10bps. For comparison, at the last 12-month Letra auction
on Feb 12, the Tesoro sold E3.024bln at average yield 1.548% and covered 1.98
times. There will be a E12.259bln Letra redemption this week, which is seen as
underpinning demand. Results are due to be announced around 0940GMT.

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro plan to issue
E7.75bln of a new 12-month Mar 14, 2014 BOT on Tuesday. This auction is going to
be closely watched by the market for indications of how Wednesday's BTP auction
might go, in wake of recent Fitch downgrade of Italy by 1 notch. Currently, in
the grey market the new Mar 14, 2014 BOT mid-yield is seen around 1.335%, around
8bps discount versus the old 12-month BOT, representing fair value. Aiding
demand for the new BOT is that fact that there will be a E8.685bln BOT
redemption on Mar 14, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E933mln, and
the fact that this will be the smallest 12-month BOT auction since Dec 12, 2012.
At the last 12-month BOT auction back on Feb 12, the Tesoro sold E8.5bln at
average yield of 1.094% and covered 1.38 times. Results due to be announced
around 1005GMT.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a 3-month T-bill
maturing Jun 20, 2013, and issue new 12-month T-bill maturing Mar 13, 2014 for
an indicative amount of E2.8-E3.3bln on Tuesday. This will be the second of two
taps of the Jun 20 T-bill, and with E4.726bln outstanding, demand is expected to
be on the low side. Mid-yield is currently seen trading around 0.0565%, while at
the last 3-month T-bill auction on Mar 5 the Belgium Treasury allotted E1.501bln
at average yield 0.045% and covered 3.32 times. As for the new 12-month Mar 13
T-bill, this is not scheduled to be tapped again until beginning of September,
and therefore could see high demand. The grey market is indicating a mid-yield
at 0.1375%, while at the last 12-month T-bill auction on Feb 12 E1.49bln was
allotted at average yield of 0.164% and covered 1.76 times. There will be a
T-bill redemption of E5.06bln this week leaving a potential net cash flow
positive to the tune of E1.76bln and seen underpinning demand. Results are due
to be announced around 1040GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Mar 12 Italy sells 12-month T-bill for E7.75bln
- Mar 12 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills for up to E5.5bln
- Mar 13 ECB 3-year LTRO repayment settlement
- Mar 13 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Mar 13 Italy sells 2015-/2028 BTP, 2017-/2018 CCTeu for up to E7.25bln
- Mar 14/15 European Council Summit
- Mar 14 ECB publishes monthly bulletin for March
- Mar 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.685bln
- Mar 15 Bank of Portugal to publish official bulletin
- Mar 15 Spain Q4 labour cost survey
- Mar 15 Spain T-bill redemption for E12.259bln
- Mar 15 First meeting of Italy Chamber & Senate (within 2-3 weeks of vote)
- Mar 18 Election of Presidents of each legislative chamber
- Mar 19 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Mar 20 Deadline for Italy chambers to elect a speaker

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- TBD Obama admin likely to release budget in late March
- Mar 12 Fed announces TDF results
- Mar 12 Outright TIPS Purchases Apr 15 2017-Feb 15 2043 $1.00-$1.5B
- Mar 12 Fed to buy TIPS, 2017-43, $1-1.5B
- Mar 12 SBC considers Cordray nom for CFPB Director/White for SEC member
- Mar 12 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Mar 12 UST auctions $32b 3yr at 1300ET
- Mar 13 Treasury Cpn Purch Feb 15 2036-Feb 15 2043 $1.25-$1.75B
- Mar 13 UST auctions $21b 9y,11m reopen at 1300ET
- Mar 13 Feb Tsy Statement, est $205Bn at 1400ET
- Mar 14 Treasury Cpn Purch May 15 2020-Feb 15 2023 $2.75-$3.50B
- Mar 14 Oversight and Investigations Subcomm on FSOC and TBTF at 1000ET
- Mar 14 UST announces 3/6m bills, 10-yr TIPS reopen at 1100ET
- Mar 14 Pres Obama to attend Senate GOP lunch
- Mar 14 UST auctions $13b 29y,11m reopen at 1300ET

[handlare]

nie przesądzam, ale odbiliśmy się od 50% fibo, z kolei dolne ograniczenie kanału też może windować eurusd, konfluencja lt i fibo na 1.3060-70 - ten poziom uważam za otwarty

zgadzam sie, sytuacja wyglada na mega klarowną, koncepcja trzyma sie kupy.

[neosb]

usdjpy m15 - okazja na L

edit: nie weszło

[zastapmnie]

kabel znowu oszukuje przed danymi? zrobi ładnego młotka, którego potem pokryje jak byczek leniwą krowę?

[adk77]

Kilka wniosków, które mi się nasuwają.

Przebicie dołem eurusd zapoczątkowało by mocniejsze spadki na rynku akcji szczególnie w europie. Biorąc pod uwagę, że s&p 500 nie testował jeszcze historycznego szczytu, albo edek będzie się bujał w przedziale do 1,30 -1-32 do momentu klarownej sytuacji na sp 500 i wtedy podejmie decyzję, albo z góry założy spadki i przebije się dołem, a wtedy 1,27 pierwszy poważniejszy test.

Poza tym widzę dzisiaj osłabienie polskiej waluty względem innych walut, szczególnie jena i funta w wyniku zaniku korelacji z eurodolarem

[zastapmnie]

no i proszę, kabel to potrafi człowieka zrobić w ch...

[handlare]

kabel odbil od spadkowej lt, bardzo krotko terminowej, skutecznie sie wybronila testowana dotychczas 2 razy. przed 10:30 warto wejsc w krotkie pozycje

-- Dodano: 12 mar 2013, 10:10 --

chyba ze poplynie pod 4990 jezeli info do tego podkusi, na d1 doji, kierunek do wyboru

-- Dodano: 12 mar 2013, 10:32 --

czyli zgodnie z przewidywaniami.

[Bemowo]

no i proszę, kabel to potrafi człowieka zrobić w ch...

ale na kablu nie było sygnału buy

[BOCZEK]

rgr na edku na m1???

[adk77]

a na m5 orgr z zasięgiem 1,3050?