DayTrading: Wtorek 12.02.2012

[Adam]

gdzie dzis widzicie edka?
ja 1,3307

http://www.efxnews.com/story/17242/bnp- ... -near-term

[ForexTig3r]

Chyba 5 fala h4 3280

[MowmiSasiad]

wszedłem w S-kę bo nabrało tempa tak jakby to ostatni moment był ;-)

[davor5]

wszedłem w S-kę bo nabrało tempa tak jakby to ostatni moment był ;-)

eske w co w czeską koronę ;-)

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: There is a full calendar Tuesday, getting underway at 0645GMT, when ECB
Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen is slated to give a speech on
structural reform an FIN-FSA conference, in Helsinki. At 0700GMT, the Indonesia
Bank Indonesia rate decision is expected. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is
set to appear in a discussion on EMU in Helsinki. The first data release of the
session is expected at 0745GMT, with the release of the French December Current
account data. EU Finance ministers are set to gather in Brussels for the regular
monthly Ecofin meeting. At 0830GMT, the Swedish Riksbank monetary policy meeting
outcome is expected. Consensus is for no change, keeping rates at 1%, although
some look for a 25 bps cut.
At 1000GMT, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio and Governing Council member
Erkki Liikanen are to appear together to discuss regulatory reform, in Helsinki.
Germany German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter is slated to give a
speech on economic adjustment, in Dublin, at 1115GMT.
ECB President Mario Draghi is slated to give a press briefing, in Madrid, at
1430GMT, following a closed door briefing to the Spanish Parliamment
At 1730GMT, German Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret is to
give a speech in Geneva.

IRELAND: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised Ireland's outlook to
stable from negative late Monday and affirmed its rating at BBB+. The outlook
revision comes after the Irish Governments Promissory Note transaction for
longer-term government bonds, where S&P said it "significantly reduces the Irish
government's debt-servicing costs and refinancing risk, and supports medium-term
fiscal consolidation". By improving the government's debt-maturity profile, the
transaction also increases the prospects of Ireland leaving the EU/IMF bailout
program as planned at the end of 2013, added S&P.



UK: UK data due at 0930GMT includes the release of the January PPI data and the
December CPI numbers.

UK PRESS: The FT says a survey of economists suggests that the arrival of Mark
Carney as BOE Governor is unlikely to impact greatly on either monetary policy
or the UK economy.

UK PRESS: Ahead of the March Budget, UK Business Secretary Vince Cable has
raided the political temperature, the FT says, by warning the Chancellor not to
inflict cuts on areas targeted for growth.

UK PRESS: As the lead-up to the Scottish Independence referendum gathers
intensity, economic advisors to the Scottish government have proposed that an
independent Scotland could join a currency union with the remainder of the UK
and hold a stake in the Bank of England, the FT reports.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph notes a survey by e.Surv, showing that low deposit
mortgages - most common with first time buyers - is at a three year high.




US: The US calendar gets underway at 1245GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman
Store Sales for the Feb 9 week. At 1355GMT, the Redbook Average for teh Feb 9
week will cross the wires.
US Kansas City Fed President Esther George is set to give a speech on the
economy, in Omaha, from 1630GMT
US Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will give a speech in Madrid, at
1830GMT.
The last data release for the day comes at 1900GMT, when the January US Treasury
Statement numbers will be released.



KOREA: Wires picking up comments from N Korean state press agency KNCA,
confirming a nuclear test occurred earlier Tuesday.

KOREA: The UN Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting later
Tuesday to discuss the N Korean "seismic activity", diplomats in NYC say.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3402 after rate had recovered from a NY
afternoon dip to $1.3482. Rate had seen lows earlier in the day of $1.3357,
lifting into early NY to $1.3428. Euro buoyancy during the NY session was mainly
provided by demand for euro-yen, the yen getting generally pressed lower on
reaction to US Tsy Lael Brainard comments supporting Japan's efforts to end
deflation. Rate dipped to $1.3394 in opening Asian trade before picking up fresh
demand, linked to euro-yen demand from a returning Tokyo market, lifted the rate
back to $1.3412. However, momentum quickly faded, leaving the rate to drift off
through the balance of the overnight session to $1.3378. Rate seen holding heavy
into early Europe. A light data calendar for the Eurozone Tuesday though focus
will be on ECB Draghi's visit to the Spanish parliament (due to speak at
1430GMT). Euro-dollar bids seen between $1.3380-70 ($1.3370 76.4%
$1.3357-1.3428), a break to open a deeper move toward $1.3357, with bids seen
from here into $1.3350. Below and rate can ease on toward Monday's lows of
$1.3325. Resistance $1.3400/10 ahead of stronger interest between $1.3425/30.

EURO-DOLLAR: Begins to clear below $1.3380, with Asian traders having noted
stops interest in place from below $1.3380 and extending down to $1.3350.
However, interim demand seen in place to Monday's European low at $1.3357, with
more bids seen into $1.3350. A break below here and Monday's early Asian low of
$1.3325 moves back into view. Bids seen here between $1.3325/15.


EURO-SWISS: BNP put out a long euro-Swiss rec last night, targeting Chf1.2800,
while placing stops below Chf1.1970 after noting recent Swiss official comments
supporting the Chf1.2000 floor.


CABLE: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.5655, just off lows of $1.5652, with
sterling having been under pressure through Monday's session as traders adjusted
positions ahead of today's inflation data (0930GMT) and tomorrow's Inflation
Report (with attention more on UK growth forecasts). The move lower in sterling
allowed euro-sterling to recover a good part of last Friday's losses, the rate
having seen extended lows of stg0.8442 in Asia Monday before pushing up to
stg0.8573 in NY. Trade overnight saw rate consolidate this correction between
stg0.85455-0.85665, holding around stg0.8550 into Europe. Cable posted an early
high of $1.5670 before easing lower again, the move targeting stops sub $1.5650
as rate pressed down to $1.5642. Rate had settled back between $1.5650/60 ahead
of Europe. Cable demand seen in place from $1.5642 through to recent lows at
$1.5630 (traders note a long term trendline coming through this area), with
stops below $1.5620. Resistance $1.5670/80.

CABLE: Under fresh pressure in early Europe, the rate easing back around
$1.5650, though holding off a retest of overnight lows at $1.5642. Bids have
been reported through to recent lows at $1.5630, with further interest seen into
$1.5620 with stops placed below. Rate currently trades around $1.5650. Move
lower seen tracking euro-dollar's early pullback, as the cross pressures
overnight lows at stg0.8545. Bids here seen between stg0.8545/40.


YEN: Yen came under pressure in late NY Monday as market reacted to comments
from US Tsy's Lael Brainard supporting Japan's efforts to bring an end to
deflation. This, added to weekend comments from Japan EconMin Amari as he
suggested efforts to take the Nikkei to 13,000 by end of March/Fiscal Year,
helped to continue the pressure on the yen into a returning Tokyo market
Tuesday. Dollar-yen had extended its recovery off early Monday lows of Y92.36 to
Y94.46 into the close with early Asia pressing the rate back to Y94.13 before
fresh buying emerged into Tokyo that took it up to an overnight high of Y94.39.
Rate held firm for most of the session before getting sold off ahead of the
European open to Y93.87 before edging back to Y94.00. Euro-yen saw its recovery
off Monday lows of Y123.50 extend to Y126.56 into the NY close, with early Asian
trade consolidating the move between Y126.10/50. Rate also broke lower ahead of
the European open, trading down to Y125.59 before recovering to Y125.70. Tech
traders still have upside targets at Y95.70 and Y128.70 but note that supporting
Kijun and Tenkan lines recent steep appreciation is beginning to slow and
prompts caution.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply higher Monday, boosted
by the weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 215.96 points, or 1.94%, at
11369.12. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 12.18 points at
969.53. Market breadth indicators saw 181 issue higher, 35 lower and 9
unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 2.9 bn shares.


GOLD: Spot gold edges further down, now at 1-month low of $1645.13 and almost
touching the low end of $1644.15 to $1669.31 range. According to ANZ commodity
analysts, CME Group's move to reduce collateral requirements for gold and silver
futures by 10% and 13% by close of business tonight is weighing on sentiment as
collateral declines tend to occur during less-volatile trading, and "could be a
signal that money managers have stepped out of precious metal markets." CFTC
data showed a 6.2% drop in non-commercial gold open interest since early January
but it gained 5.5% again the latest week, ANZ notes.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550
* Dollar-yen; Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.60, Y93.70, Y94.00
* Cable; $1.5800
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8550, stg0.8555
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2400
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0260, $1.0400
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2330
* Aussie-yen; Y95.00


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Heavy slew of sovereign bond issuance is scheduled Tuesday,
with the Netherlands due to re-open its 5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL
issue for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln indicative size. Germany re-opens its 0.75%
Apr 2018 Boblei linker issue on Tuesday for E1.0bln. In addition, the EFSF
tops-up 2.25% Mar 2022 bond for up to E1.0bln. Looking ahead, Germany sells a
new 2-year benchmark Mar 2015 Schatz issue on Wednesday for up E5.0bln -- coupon
is due to be announced this morning. Key focus is on Italy's regular mid-month
BTP auctions scheduled Wednesday, which includes tap of the June 2017 CCTeu for
between E1.0bln-E1.5bln, tap of 3-year benchmark 2.75% Dec 2015 BTP for between
E2.5bln-E3.5bln, tap of the 15-year benchmark 4.50% Mar 2026 BTP for between
E1.0bln-E1.75bln and also benchmark 30-year 5.00% Sep 2040 BTP for between
E1.0bln-E1.75bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions due
this week with moderate coupon payments from Portugal E0.22bln -- leaves net
cash flow negative to the tune of E16.8bln vs -E17.7bln last week. Pease see MNI
Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix for details.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Spain, Italy, Greece and Belgium all come to the
Eurozone sovereign T-bill market Tuesday. Spain will be first up with a tap of
6-month Aug 23 and tap of 12-month Feb 21, 2014 Letra for an indicative amount
of E4.5-E5.5bln. Italy plan to sell E8.5bln 12-month Feb 14, 2014 BOT. Greece
plan to sell E1.0bln 13-week May 17 T-bill. While Belgium plan to re-open
3-month May 16 T-bill and issue new 12-month Feb 13, 2014 T-bill for indicative
target range of E2.8-E3.3bln. To recap, on Monday, Germany sold E3.385bln
6-month aug 14 Bubill at average yield 0.0203%. In the afternoon, France sold
E3.995 3-month BTF at average yield 0.012%, E1.701bln 6-month BTF at average
yield 0.048% and E1.894bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.145%. Still to come
on Thursday Ireland plan to issue new 3-month T-bill, with confirmation,
maturity and size to be announced on Tuesday.

DUTCH AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) re-opens its
5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL issue Tuesday for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln
indicative size. This is the first litmus test after Fitch Ratings revised the
outlook on the Netherlands' ratings (AAA) to negative from stable in the wake of
decision by the Dutch government to nationalise SNS Bank N.V.capital after
injecting E2.2bln, or 0.4% of GDP, on top of E6.8bln(1.2% of GDP) in loans and
guarantees. However, Dutch bonds have cheapened significantly in recent weeks,
with benchmark 5-year DSL yield trading at 0.866% mid-yield vs 0.53% since the
end of 2012. This issue is expected to be re-opened again on Mar 26 for between
E2.0bln-E3.0bln indicative size. Ahead of this, the DSTA is due to re-open the
3-year benchmark Apr 2016 DSL on Mar 12 and launch a new 10-year DSL via DDA on
Mar 19. This issue was last sold on Oct 9, 2012 and auction adds to the
E8.561bln currently outstanding. Auction results are due around 0920GMT.

SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico will re-open 6-month Aug
23, 2013 Letra and re-open 12-month Feb 21, 2014 Letra for an indicative amount
of E4.5-E5.5bln Tuesday. The Spanish Letra yield curve has steepened during
February as increase in political concerns weighs on the market. Currently
6-month mid-yield is seen around 0.925%, while for the 12-month Letra mid-yield
is seen around 1.56%. For comparison, at the last 6-month auction back on Jan
22, the Tesoro sold E1.578bln at average yield of 0.888% with cover 3.85 times.
At the last 12-month Letra auction back on Jan 15 and sold E3.246bln at average
yield of 1.472% with cover 2.46 times. There will be E9.786bln Letra redemption
this week, so net cash flow could be positive to the tune of E6.786bln, which is
seen as underpinning demand. Results due to be announced around 0940GMT.

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro plan to issue
E8.5bln of a new 12-month Feb 14, 2014 BOT on Tuesday. Long end BOT yields have
risen since the lows seen on Jan 18 of this year, as uncertainty in Italian
election weighs on the market. Currently, in the grey market the new Feb 14,
2014 BOT mid-yield is seen around 1.125%, representing a 7.5bps discount versus
the old 12-month Jan 14, 2014 BOT, which looks on the low side. Aiding demand
for the new BOT is that fact that there will be a E9.153bln BOT redemption on
Feb 14, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E653mln. At the last
12-month BOT auction back on Jan 10, the Tesoro sold E8.5bln at average yield of
0.864% and covered 1.79 times. Results due to be announced around 1005GMT.

GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) is
planning to issue E1.0bln new 13-week Mar 17, 2013 T-bill Tuesday. For now, the
heat seams to be off Greece as Eurozone finance ministers turn their attention
to its neighbour Cyprus which is looking for a bank bailout. While at the
Eurogroup meeting the finance ministers agreed the next aid tranche for Greece
will be made next week. The PDMA will once again allocate an extra 30% of amount
auctioned, in non-comp bids and a further 30% in second day bids, to bring total
amount to be issued to E1.6bln. At the last 13-week T-bill on Jan 15, the PDMA
sold E1.625bln at average yield of 4.07% and covered 1.75 times. There will be a
E1.6bln T-bill redemptions on Feb 18, which is seen underpinning demand at the
auction. Results due to be announced around 1015GMT.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur conduct its second linker
auction for this year with top-up of the 0.75% Apr 2018 Boblei issue Tuesday for
up to E1.0bln. The DFA has altered its linker auction schedule in 2013 and now
conducts sales on Tuesday instead of Wednesday's. Also, the DFA intends issuing
linkers on a monthly basis in 2013, with the exception of August and December
and plans to sell between E8.0bln-E12.0bln linkers in 2013. The 2018 Bundei
trades at a real yield of -0.799% and compares to recent cheapest levels of
-0.652% on Jan 28. German 5-year breakevens are at 125bps and compares to
similar level at the beginning of the year. This issue was last sold on Nov 21,
2012 for E1.0bln at a real yield of -0.86% and then covered 1.5 times. Following
the auction, the total size outstanding rises to E8.0bln. Auction results are
due shortly after bidding deadline at 1030GMT.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a 3-month T-bill
maturing May 16, 2013, and issue 12-month T-bill maturing Feb 13, 2014 for an
indicative amount of E2.8-E3.3bln on Tuesday. This will be the second of two
taps of the May 16 T-bill within a week, therefore demand could be on the low
side. Mid-yield is currently seen trading around 0.058%, while at the last
3-month T-bill auction on Feb 5 the Belgium Treasury allotted E1.505bln at
average yield 0.038% and covered 2.42 times. As for the new 12-month Feb 13
T-bill, this will not be tapped again until September, while mid-yield in the
grey market is seen at 0.175%, is likely to attract strong investor demand. At
the last 12-month T-bill auction on Jan 15 E1.521bln was allotted at average
yield of 0.11% and covered 2.06 times. There will be E5.06bln in T-bill
redemption this week leaving a potential net cash flow positive to the tune of
E1.76bln. Results are due to be announced around 1040GMT.

[richard.cali]

wszedłem w S-kę bo nabrało tempa tak jakby to ostatni moment był ;-)

Też na e-lke może być ostatni moment zanim nabierze tempa

[MowmiSasiad]

Wsparcie 1.3370 broni. ogląda się jak dobre kino akcji

[Scorpiman]

Hello


EUROPE: There is a full calendar Tuesday, getting underway at 0645GMT, when ECB
Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen is slated to give a speech on
structural reform an FIN-FSA conference, in Helsinki. At 0700GMT, the Indonesia
Bank Indonesia rate decision is expected. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is
set to appear in a discussion on EMU in Helsinki. The first data release of the
session is expected at 0745GMT, with the release of the French December Current
account data. EU Finance ministers are set to gather in Brussels for the regular
monthly Ecofin meeting. At 0830GMT, the Swedish Riksbank monetary policy meeting
outcome is expected. Consensus is for no change, keeping rates at 1%, although
some look for a 25 bps cut.
At 1000GMT, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio and Governing Council member
Erkki Liikanen are to appear together to discuss regulatory reform, in Helsinki.
Germany German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter is slated to give a
speech on economic adjustment, in Dublin, at 1115GMT.
ECB President Mario Draghi is slated to give a press briefing, in Madrid, at
1430GMT, following a closed door briefing to the Spanish Parliamment
At 1730GMT, German Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret is to
give a speech in Geneva.

IRELAND: Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised Ireland's outlook to
stable from negative late Monday and affirmed its rating at BBB+. The outlook
revision comes after the Irish Governments Promissory Note transaction for
longer-term government bonds, where S&P said it "significantly reduces the Irish
government's debt-servicing costs and refinancing risk, and supports medium-term
fiscal consolidation". By improving the government's debt-maturity profile, the
transaction also increases the prospects of Ireland leaving the EU/IMF bailout
program as planned at the end of 2013, added S&P.



UK: UK data due at 0930GMT includes the release of the January PPI data and the
December CPI numbers.

UK PRESS: The FT says a survey of economists suggests that the arrival of Mark
Carney as BOE Governor is unlikely to impact greatly on either monetary policy
or the UK economy.

UK PRESS: Ahead of the March Budget, UK Business Secretary Vince Cable has
raided the political temperature, the FT says, by warning the Chancellor not to
inflict cuts on areas targeted for growth.

UK PRESS: As the lead-up to the Scottish Independence referendum gathers
intensity, economic advisors to the Scottish government have proposed that an
independent Scotland could join a currency union with the remainder of the UK
and hold a stake in the Bank of England, the FT reports.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph notes a survey by e.Surv, showing that low deposit
mortgages - most common with first time buyers - is at a three year high.




US: The US calendar gets underway at 1245GMT, with the release of the ICSC-Goldman
Store Sales for the Feb 9 week. At 1355GMT, the Redbook Average for teh Feb 9
week will cross the wires.
US Kansas City Fed President Esther George is set to give a speech on the
economy, in Omaha, from 1630GMT
US Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will give a speech in Madrid, at
1830GMT.
The last data release for the day comes at 1900GMT, when the January US Treasury
Statement numbers will be released.



KOREA: Wires picking up comments from N Korean state press agency KNCA,
confirming a nuclear test occurred earlier Tuesday.

KOREA: The UN Security Council is expected to hold an emergency meeting later
Tuesday to discuss the N Korean "seismic activity", diplomats in NYC say.




EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3402 after rate had recovered from a NY
afternoon dip to $1.3482. Rate had seen lows earlier in the day of $1.3357,
lifting into early NY to $1.3428. Euro buoyancy during the NY session was mainly
provided by demand for euro-yen, the yen getting generally pressed lower on
reaction to US Tsy Lael Brainard comments supporting Japan's efforts to end
deflation. Rate dipped to $1.3394 in opening Asian trade before picking up fresh
demand, linked to euro-yen demand from a returning Tokyo market, lifted the rate
back to $1.3412. However, momentum quickly faded, leaving the rate to drift off
through the balance of the overnight session to $1.3378. Rate seen holding heavy
into early Europe. A light data calendar for the Eurozone Tuesday though focus
will be on ECB Draghi's visit to the Spanish parliament (due to speak at
1430GMT). Euro-dollar bids seen between $1.3380-70 ($1.3370 76.4%
$1.3357-1.3428), a break to open a deeper move toward $1.3357, with bids seen
from here into $1.3350. Below and rate can ease on toward Monday's lows of
$1.3325. Resistance $1.3400/10 ahead of stronger interest between $1.3425/30.

EURO-DOLLAR: Begins to clear below $1.3380, with Asian traders having noted
stops interest in place from below $1.3380 and extending down to $1.3350.
However, interim demand seen in place to Monday's European low at $1.3357, with
more bids seen into $1.3350. A break below here and Monday's early Asian low of
$1.3325 moves back into view. Bids seen here between $1.3325/15.


EURO-SWISS: BNP put out a long euro-Swiss rec last night, targeting Chf1.2800,
while placing stops below Chf1.1970 after noting recent Swiss official comments
supporting the Chf1.2000 floor.


CABLE: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.5655, just off lows of $1.5652, with
sterling having been under pressure through Monday's session as traders adjusted
positions ahead of today's inflation data (0930GMT) and tomorrow's Inflation
Report (with attention more on UK growth forecasts). The move lower in sterling
allowed euro-sterling to recover a good part of last Friday's losses, the rate
having seen extended lows of stg0.8442 in Asia Monday before pushing up to
stg0.8573 in NY. Trade overnight saw rate consolidate this correction between
stg0.85455-0.85665, holding around stg0.8550 into Europe. Cable posted an early
high of $1.5670 before easing lower again, the move targeting stops sub $1.5650
as rate pressed down to $1.5642. Rate had settled back between $1.5650/60 ahead
of Europe. Cable demand seen in place from $1.5642 through to recent lows at
$1.5630 (traders note a long term trendline coming through this area), with
stops below $1.5620. Resistance $1.5670/80.

CABLE: Under fresh pressure in early Europe, the rate easing back around
$1.5650, though holding off a retest of overnight lows at $1.5642. Bids have
been reported through to recent lows at $1.5630, with further interest seen into
$1.5620 with stops placed below. Rate currently trades around $1.5650. Move
lower seen tracking euro-dollar's early pullback, as the cross pressures
overnight lows at stg0.8545. Bids here seen between stg0.8545/40.


YEN: Yen came under pressure in late NY Monday as market reacted to comments
from US Tsy's Lael Brainard supporting Japan's efforts to bring an end to
deflation. This, added to weekend comments from Japan EconMin Amari as he
suggested efforts to take the Nikkei to 13,000 by end of March/Fiscal Year,
helped to continue the pressure on the yen into a returning Tokyo market
Tuesday. Dollar-yen had extended its recovery off early Monday lows of Y92.36 to
Y94.46 into the close with early Asia pressing the rate back to Y94.13 before
fresh buying emerged into Tokyo that took it up to an overnight high of Y94.39.
Rate held firm for most of the session before getting sold off ahead of the
European open to Y93.87 before edging back to Y94.00. Euro-yen saw its recovery
off Monday lows of Y123.50 extend to Y126.56 into the NY close, with early Asian
trade consolidating the move between Y126.10/50. Rate also broke lower ahead of
the European open, trading down to Y125.59 before recovering to Y125.70. Tech
traders still have upside targets at Y95.70 and Y128.70 but note that supporting
Kijun and Tenkan lines recent steep appreciation is beginning to slow and
prompts caution.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply higher Monday, boosted
by the weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 215.96 points, or 1.94%, at
11369.12. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 12.18 points at
969.53. Market breadth indicators saw 181 issue higher, 35 lower and 9
unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 2.9 bn shares.


GOLD: Spot gold edges further down, now at 1-month low of $1645.13 and almost
touching the low end of $1644.15 to $1669.31 range. According to ANZ commodity
analysts, CME Group's move to reduce collateral requirements for gold and silver
futures by 10% and 13% by close of business tonight is weighing on sentiment as
collateral declines tend to occur during less-volatile trading, and "could be a
signal that money managers have stepped out of precious metal markets." CFTC
data showed a 6.2% drop in non-commercial gold open interest since early January
but it gained 5.5% again the latest week, ANZ notes.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550
* Dollar-yen; Y92.50, Y93.00, Y93.60, Y93.70, Y94.00
* Cable; $1.5800
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8550, stg0.8555
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2400
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0260, $1.0400
* Aussie-Kiwi; NZ$1.2330
* Aussie-yen; Y95.00


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Heavy slew of sovereign bond issuance is scheduled Tuesday,
with the Netherlands due to re-open its 5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL
issue for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln indicative size. Germany re-opens its 0.75%
Apr 2018 Boblei linker issue on Tuesday for E1.0bln. In addition, the EFSF
tops-up 2.25% Mar 2022 bond for up to E1.0bln. Looking ahead, Germany sells a
new 2-year benchmark Mar 2015 Schatz issue on Wednesday for up E5.0bln -- coupon
is due to be announced this morning. Key focus is on Italy's regular mid-month
BTP auctions scheduled Wednesday, which includes tap of the June 2017 CCTeu for
between E1.0bln-E1.5bln, tap of 3-year benchmark 2.75% Dec 2015 BTP for between
E2.5bln-E3.5bln, tap of the 15-year benchmark 4.50% Mar 2026 BTP for between
E1.0bln-E1.75bln and also benchmark 30-year 5.00% Sep 2040 BTP for between
E1.0bln-E1.75bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions due
this week with moderate coupon payments from Portugal E0.22bln -- leaves net
cash flow negative to the tune of E16.8bln vs -E17.7bln last week. Pease see MNI
Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix for details.

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Spain, Italy, Greece and Belgium all come to the
Eurozone sovereign T-bill market Tuesday. Spain will be first up with a tap of
6-month Aug 23 and tap of 12-month Feb 21, 2014 Letra for an indicative amount
of E4.5-E5.5bln. Italy plan to sell E8.5bln 12-month Feb 14, 2014 BOT. Greece
plan to sell E1.0bln 13-week May 17 T-bill. While Belgium plan to re-open
3-month May 16 T-bill and issue new 12-month Feb 13, 2014 T-bill for indicative
target range of E2.8-E3.3bln. To recap, on Monday, Germany sold E3.385bln
6-month aug 14 Bubill at average yield 0.0203%. In the afternoon, France sold
E3.995 3-month BTF at average yield 0.012%, E1.701bln 6-month BTF at average
yield 0.048% and E1.894bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.145%. Still to come
on Thursday Ireland plan to issue new 3-month T-bill, with confirmation,
maturity and size to be announced on Tuesday.

DUTCH AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) re-opens its
5-year benchmark 1.25% Jan 2018 DSL issue Tuesday for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln
indicative size. This is the first litmus test after Fitch Ratings revised the
outlook on the Netherlands' ratings (AAA) to negative from stable in the wake of
decision by the Dutch government to nationalise SNS Bank N.V.capital after
injecting E2.2bln, or 0.4% of GDP, on top of E6.8bln(1.2% of GDP) in loans and
guarantees. However, Dutch bonds have cheapened significantly in recent weeks,
with benchmark 5-year DSL yield trading at 0.866% mid-yield vs 0.53% since the
end of 2012. This issue is expected to be re-opened again on Mar 26 for between
E2.0bln-E3.0bln indicative size. Ahead of this, the DSTA is due to re-open the
3-year benchmark Apr 2016 DSL on Mar 12 and launch a new 10-year DSL via DDA on
Mar 19. This issue was last sold on Oct 9, 2012 and auction adds to the
E8.561bln currently outstanding. Auction results are due around 0920GMT.

SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico will re-open 6-month Aug
23, 2013 Letra and re-open 12-month Feb 21, 2014 Letra for an indicative amount
of E4.5-E5.5bln Tuesday. The Spanish Letra yield curve has steepened during
February as increase in political concerns weighs on the market. Currently
6-month mid-yield is seen around 0.925%, while for the 12-month Letra mid-yield
is seen around 1.56%. For comparison, at the last 6-month auction back on Jan
22, the Tesoro sold E1.578bln at average yield of 0.888% with cover 3.85 times.
At the last 12-month Letra auction back on Jan 15 and sold E3.246bln at average
yield of 1.472% with cover 2.46 times. There will be E9.786bln Letra redemption
this week, so net cash flow could be positive to the tune of E6.786bln, which is
seen as underpinning demand. Results due to be announced around 0940GMT.

ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Italian Dipartimento Del Tesoro plan to issue
E8.5bln of a new 12-month Feb 14, 2014 BOT on Tuesday. Long end BOT yields have
risen since the lows seen on Jan 18 of this year, as uncertainty in Italian
election weighs on the market. Currently, in the grey market the new Feb 14,
2014 BOT mid-yield is seen around 1.125%, representing a 7.5bps discount versus
the old 12-month Jan 14, 2014 BOT, which looks on the low side. Aiding demand
for the new BOT is that fact that there will be a E9.153bln BOT redemption on
Feb 14, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E653mln. At the last
12-month BOT auction back on Jan 10, the Tesoro sold E8.5bln at average yield of
0.864% and covered 1.79 times. Results due to be announced around 1005GMT.

GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Greece's Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) is
planning to issue E1.0bln new 13-week Mar 17, 2013 T-bill Tuesday. For now, the
heat seams to be off Greece as Eurozone finance ministers turn their attention
to its neighbour Cyprus which is looking for a bank bailout. While at the
Eurogroup meeting the finance ministers agreed the next aid tranche for Greece
will be made next week. The PDMA will once again allocate an extra 30% of amount
auctioned, in non-comp bids and a further 30% in second day bids, to bring total
amount to be issued to E1.6bln. At the last 13-week T-bill on Jan 15, the PDMA
sold E1.625bln at average yield of 4.07% and covered 1.75 times. There will be a
E1.6bln T-bill redemptions on Feb 18, which is seen underpinning demand at the
auction. Results due to be announced around 1015GMT.

GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur conduct its second linker
auction for this year with top-up of the 0.75% Apr 2018 Boblei issue Tuesday for
up to E1.0bln. The DFA has altered its linker auction schedule in 2013 and now
conducts sales on Tuesday instead of Wednesday's. Also, the DFA intends issuing
linkers on a monthly basis in 2013, with the exception of August and December
and plans to sell between E8.0bln-E12.0bln linkers in 2013. The 2018 Bundei
trades at a real yield of -0.799% and compares to recent cheapest levels of
-0.652% on Jan 28. German 5-year breakevens are at 125bps and compares to
similar level at the beginning of the year. This issue was last sold on Nov 21,
2012 for E1.0bln at a real yield of -0.86% and then covered 1.5 times. Following
the auction, the total size outstanding rises to E8.0bln. Auction results are
due shortly after bidding deadline at 1030GMT.

BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium's Debt Agency re-opens a 3-month T-bill
maturing May 16, 2013, and issue 12-month T-bill maturing Feb 13, 2014 for an
indicative amount of E2.8-E3.3bln on Tuesday. This will be the second of two
taps of the May 16 T-bill within a week, therefore demand could be on the low
side. Mid-yield is currently seen trading around 0.058%, while at the last
3-month T-bill auction on Feb 5 the Belgium Treasury allotted E1.505bln at
average yield 0.038% and covered 2.42 times. As for the new 12-month Feb 13
T-bill, this will not be tapped again until September, while mid-yield in the
grey market is seen at 0.175%, is likely to attract strong investor demand. At
the last 12-month T-bill auction on Jan 15 E1.521bln was allotted at average
yield of 0.11% and covered 2.06 times. There will be E5.06bln in T-bill
redemption this week leaving a potential net cash flow positive to the tune of
E1.76bln. Results are due to be announced around 1040GMT.

jak patrzę na to,

$1.3390, $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550

to dla mnie tylko LONG

[ZielonaMgielka]

Niebywale skomplikowana analiza EU na interwale D1 :

http://screencast.com/t/q36h0HFZ

Kurs odbija sie jak pileczka od istotnych poziomow. A gdzie pileczka leci teraz ? ...prawdopodobnie na 1.33 jednak warto obserwowac zachowanie ceny w obrebie wczorajszych/piatkowych dolkow bo to wlasnie ich przebicie moze byc swietna okazja do wejscia w pozycje z ciasnym stopem.

[niemiaszek]

to dla mnie tylko LONG

sporo jest aukcji dzisiaj, więc napewno jakieś atrakcje i niespodzianki w ruchu na edku i nie tylko są w planach

wczoraj wieczorem jedno zdanie Weidmana(nie ma zagrożeń dla gospodarek eu przez drogie euro) wystarczyło na ruch 50 pipek przy malej płynności, więc jako norma to wszystko możliwe w tym biznesie