DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Dyskusje na temat aktualnej sesji: komentarze, analizy, opinie.

Prognoza EURUSD na dzisiaj

Czas głosowania minął 04 gru 2013, 00:00

Wzrost
19
59%
Bez zmian
2
6%
Spadek
11
34%
 
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DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: ForumBot »

Zapraszam do wymiany uwag i opinii na temat dzisiejszej sesji.

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Regulamin działu DayTrading:

1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)

Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum

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Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.


EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF, USD/CHF
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steven69
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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: steven69 »

eska na ropie US Crude, pasuje ??
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crok.
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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: crok. »

rajd mikolaja na jenie trwa :) dawno nie pamietam tak aktywnych azjatow
jak uzyskać parytet na edku -swieca z 03.12 - tu podjada pod 1,053 i wtedy rura w jeden dzien 500 piepek :)

kamilao1987
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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: kamilao1987 »

dlaczego jen tak się osłabia? I czy tak będzie w nieskończoność? Powiedzcie proszę

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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: molmomas »

ujek do 109
Money flow.
"pips to the people"

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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

Hello


EU: There is another full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday, with
both data and central bank speak to the fore. The European calendar gets
underway at 0800GMT, with the release of the Spanish Nov unemployment data.
Analysts are looking for an increase of 50,000 against last month's 87,000 rise.
At 0900GMT, German Nov car registrations data will cross the wires. UK data is
due at 0930GMT and includes the Nov CIPS/Markit Construction PMI data and the
BOE minutes from the November FPC meeting. The Construction PMI may well ease a
little after hitting a 79-month high in Oct. The sector appears to be enjoying
solid growth after an extended period languishing in contractionary territory.
The construction sector could continue to perform well if the economic recovery
remains on track and housing market activity continues to increase. The PMI
surveys have tended to surprise to the upside in recent months, however, and RBS
forecast a rise to 59.5. The EMU Oct PPI data will be released at 1000GMT, with
analysts looking for a fall of 0.2% on month and a fall of 1% on year.
Bundesbank's Carl-Ludwig Thiele will deliver a speech in Berlin at 1800GMT,
while ECB's Ewald Nowotny is scheduled to speak in Brussels at the same time.

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 03 Spain Nov unemployment data
- Dec 03 ECB Nowotny speaks in Brussels
- Dec 03 EU Rehn speaks at Lisbon Council in Brussels
- Dec 03 ESM bill auction
- Dec 04 EMU Q3 GDP data (2nd estimate)
- Dec 04 EMU Nov final services PMI
- Dec 04 EU, IMF begin 10th review of Portuguese aid program
- Dec 05 ECB Governing Council meeting, Staff forecast, Draghi press conference
- Dec 05 Spain bond auctions
- Dec 06 ECB Nowotny at Austria central bank press conference
- Dec 06 ECB Asmussen at Handelsblatt Research Institute in Berlin
- Dec 06 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Dec 09 Eurogroup meeting
- Dec 09 Eurozone Dec Sentix investor confidence data
- Dec 10 ECOFIN meeting



EURO SUMMARY: Another relatively dull morning for the euro this morning, largely
sidelined with most of the market focused on the yen and aussie. Euro-dollar
starts at $1.3542 after a $1.3528 to $1.3561 US session range. It traded a
$1.3546 high in early trades but then gives back all of the gains, as it slid
through opening levels and last night's US low to land at $1.3524. The move
lower then ran into demand interest from just under $1.3525 and at $1.3500,
which then supported the pair up to $1.3538. Through the rest of the morning in
Asia, euro-dollar shuffled in a $1.3530 to $1.3537 range as market interest in
the pair faded. Euro-dollar was last at $1.3548. Ahead, resistance is seen at
the overnight high of $1.3561, minor offers seen there and near $1.3580, ahead
of larger sell orders at $1.3600 and $1.3625, according to dealers. A close
above $1.3561 would then hint at retests of the recent highs although correcting
overbought daily tech studies are expected to limit topside follow-through.

03-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Eye Key 7 Support Line At $1.3483
RES 4: $1.3661 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
RES 3: $1.3627 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 & Daily Bolli top
RES 2: $1.3610 Channel base from Jul 10 low
RES 1: $1.3561/71 55-DMA, 5-DMA
LATEST PRICE: $1.3538
SUP 1: $1.3501 21-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.3483 Nov 7 support line
SUP 3: $1.3469 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 & Daily Ichimoku base
SUP 4: $1.3432 100-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar fades from support around the daily Bolli band top and
61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 at $1.3627 - the pair descended through the channel base
and now bears eye the Nov 7 support line at $1.3483. we note daily studies are
reversing south adding risk lower - a break below could flip sentiment to the
downside and target the 200-DMA at $1.3232, however bulls will aim to close back
within the rising channel from Jul 10 low - the base is key res at $1.3610.

EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3660/65 Medium offers/$1.3661 Cloud top
$1.3650 Strong offers/
$1.3620/30 Strong offers/$1.3622 Nov29 high;$1.3627 61.8% $1.3833-1.3295
$1.3595/600 Medium offers
$1.3570/80 Medium offers/50%-61.8% $1.3616-1.3524
$1.3561 Recovery high in NY, off $1.3526
$1.3550 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3545
$1.3547 ***Current mkt rate 0645GMT Tuesday
$1.3524 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3525/15 Strong demand
$1.3490/80 Medium demand/$1.3490 Nov25 low/$1.3485 61.8% $1.3400-1.3622/Stops
$1.3469-63 Cloud base-Friday Nov22 low
$1.3460/50 Medium demand/$1.3452 76.4% $1.3400-1.3622
$1.3420 Medium demand
$1.3400 Strong demand/$1.3400 Nov21 lows


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.6356 after rate had pulled
back from an earlier session high of $1.6443 (seen in Asia), getting a slight
lift back on release of stronger than expected UK mfg PMI data, before touching
a low of $1.6343 during the European before rate settled around $1.6350 into the
Asian session. Asia lifted rate to $1.6365 in early trade before it dropped back
to mark lows at $1.6347 where it picked up fresh demand that allowed it to move
through that earlier high and on to $1.6372 ahead of the European open.
Euro-sterling, which had seen extended lows of stg0.8252 Monday, had recovered
to stg0.8287 ahead of the session close before ending the day at stg0.8280. Asia
trade saw rate ease down to stg0.8269, recovering to stg0.8276 ahead of Europe.
UK construction PMI and FPC Minutes are due for release at 0930GMt in an
otherwise data light day. Cable resistance seen at $1.6380 ($1.6381 38.2%
$1.6443-1.6343) ahead of $1.6395/05. A break here to open a move toward $1.6420
ahead of $1.6440/50. Support seen at $1.6350/40 ahead of $1.6320/15. Cross
support remains into stg0.8250, resistance stg0.8280, stg0.8300.

03-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Long Upper Shadow Cautions While Studies Slip
RES 4: $1.6496 High June 2011
RES 3: $1.6443 High Dec 2
RES 2: $1.6411 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: $1.6381/84 Reversal high Jan 2013, High Nov 29
LATEST PRICE: $1.6367
SUP 1: $1.6344/47 5-DMA, Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.6304 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
SUP 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
SUP 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
COMMENTARY: Cable pushed higher to $1.6443 before bears took control to end the
session lower - the long upper-shadow adds some risk lower and could form a
reversal pattern if bears take control. Daily/weekly studies look overbought and
may turn lower - a new short-term support line is at $1.6283 and a break below
could turn sentiment south. Initial support is $1.6344/47 - the 5-DMA and hourly
low. However, monthly studies rise and a retest of $1.6443 encourages bulls.

CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6500 Strong offers on approach/Barrier
$1.6496 Jun 2011 highs
$1.6480 Medium offers
$1.6450 Strong offers/Stops
$1.6443 Monday Dec2 - fresh 2013 high
$1.6390/405 $1.6393-1.6405 50%-61.8% $1.6443-1.6343
$1.6386 Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.6368
$1.6383 ***Current market rate 0716GMT Tuesday
$1.6347 Int.Day low Asia
$1.6345-43 76.4% $1.6315-1.6443/Monday Dec2 low
$1.6315 Nov 30 low
$1.6310/00 Medium demand
$1.6280/75 Medium demand
$1.6260/55 Strong demand/$1.6258 Pullback low off $1.6331(NY)


YEN SUMMARY: Another day of continued weakness for the Japanese currency, with
dollar-yen rising to highest levels since May again and poised to test fresh
highs for 2013. Dollar-yen opened at Y102.94, and initially held steady at
Y102.92/98. It pulled back briefly to Y102.83 low as offers at Y103.00, rumored
to be option-related, kept the pair away from the US session's Y103.13 high. But
dollar-yen pushed through those offers later in the morning, and then pushed
through the overnight high as dealers spoke of medium-to-large option contracts
expiring later this month, at Y103.25 and Y103.30, with more then seen at
Y103.50 and Y104.00. Dollar-yen's gains paused for a while just shy of Y103.20
but made another determined push in the early afternoon, clearing out some of
those rumored option strikes and trading a Y103.39 high. Dollar-yen was last at
Y103.34, with the market working its way toward the 2013 low of Y103.73, traded
May 22. Near-term, large offers ahead of Y103.50 and the May 23 Y103.57 high are
likely to slow the pair's ascent. On the downside, immediate support seen at
Y102.60 ahead of Y102.05, with real money demand cited at Y101.95, stops below
Y101.90. A close below that hints at a deeper correction to Y100.50-00 region.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Tuesday higher. The Nikkei 225
lost 94.59 points, or 0.60%, to stand at 15749.66. The broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 5.80 points at 1264.74. Nikkei market breadth saw 139 issues trade
higher, 69 lower and 17 unchanged. Total volume was 1.426 billion.

NEWS: JAPAN'S NIKKEI 225 INDEX ENDS UP 0.60% AT 15,749.66

03-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Target May 22 Reversal High At Y103.74
RES 4: Y104.55 4% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
RES 2: Y103.52/55 Daily Bolli top, 3% 21-day MA env top
RES 1: Y103.31/38 High May 17, Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y103.25
SUP 1: Y102.83/89 Hourly low, High May 21
SUP 2: Y102.54 2% 21-day MA envelope top
SUP 3: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
SUP 4: Y101.83 Nov 8 channel base
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen pushed higher after showing a little weakness early
yesterday session - bulls now look to close above the May 17 high at Y103.31,
just below the hourly high of Y103.38. A close above here likely threatens a
test of the May 22 reversal high at Y103.74, however failure ahead of here could
see overbought studies reverse to the downside - key support seen at Y101.83,
the Nov 8 channel base and ahead of here is the 23.6% at Y102.02.

03-Dec-2013 7:50
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Y140.00 Level But Studies O/B
RES 4: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
RES 3: Y140.80 Daily Bolli band top
RES 2: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
RES 1: Y139.94/140.00 Hourly high, Psychological level
LATEST PRICE: Y139.91
SUP 1: Y139.43 Feb 2005 high
SUP 2: Y138.97 Low Nov 29
SUP 3: Y138.46 3% 21-DMA envelope top
SUP 4: Y137.88 23.6% of Y131.22-139.94
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen continues to squeeze higher and test resistance above the
rising channel - bulls left an hourly high at Y139.94, just below the
psychological Y140.00 level and a break above here could see a push up to the
Oct 2005 high at Y140.20 - above here is daily Bolli top at Y140.80. However,
studies are still overbought and failure to break the Y140.00 level could see a
heavy tone takeover - initial support is at Y139.43 - the Feb 2005 high.


AUSSIE: The Australian dollar started this morning holding on either side of
$0.9100, and managed to edge up to $0.9120 in early trade before it briefly
climbed a couple of notches up further to a $0.9131 high after the release of
Australia's Oct retail sales data. Upward momentum however quickly evaporated
after that and aussie-dollar began to grind lower. Losses picked up pace after
the release of China's non-manufacturing PMI for November, with aussie-dollar
slipping below $0.9100 to $0.9086. It held near there as the market then sat
back and waited for the RBA's decision, its last for 2013. The RBA didn't make
any surprises, keeping the cash rate unchanged while repeating that the aussie
was uncomfortably high. Aussie-dollar took a few minutes to respond and
eventually caved in to a $0.9057 low. It was last at $0.9064, after a few failed
attempts to rebound, although market flows information suggest buy orders are in
place from $0.9050. For now, $0.9050 is expected to hold the downside with stops
likely on any move through $0.9045 while up top, $0.9180 offers are likely to
keep a lid on the aussie.

AUSSIE: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$0.9300 Strong offers, stops
$0.9275/78 Medium offers/100-day ma
$0.9240/50 Strong offers, stops ($0.9249 - 22 Nov high)
$0.9204/05 26 Nov high/Minor offers
$0.9200 Strong offers, stops
$0.9180 Medium offers, stops
$0.9169 76.4% of $0.9204-0.9056
$0.9148 US high
$0.9131 Intraday high Asia
$0.9075 ***Current market price 0621GMT Tuesday
$0.9089/82 US low/Intraday low Asia ($0.9099 Europe)
$0.9056/50 29 Nov low/Demand on approach, barrier, stops
$0.9045/38 Large stops/4 Sep low
$0.9015 Medium demand - bottom of daily down trend channel from $0.9724 high
$0.9000 Medium demand , barrier , stops below

AUSTRALIA VIEW: Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans says the case for stimulus
is likely to become more urgent as the Australian labour market continues to
weaken and the unemployment rate rises more rapidly than we have seen in recent
months. "For now our forecast is that these developments may occur as soon as
the March quarter with February nominated as the starting date. However, given
the range of uncertainties around the current situation this timing could easily
be delayed. We will continue to monitor currency, housing and labour markets in
particular over the next few months but our central forecast is that eventually
the need for further stimulus will be satisfied by the more conventional channel
of lower interest rates," he wrote in a note. Evans' forecast is for two more
RBA cash rate cuts in February and May.



OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
Includes DTCC
* Dollar-yen; Y101.00(L), Y101.75, Y102.00, Y102.50, Y104.00(L)
* Euro-yen; Y136.90
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3500, $1.3515, $1.3520, $1.3525, $1.3535, $1.3600,
$1.3625
* Cable; $1.6200
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8280
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9200(L)
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

zeuss
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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: zeuss »

kamilao1987 pisze:dlaczego jen tak się osłabia? I czy tak będzie w nieskończoność? Powiedzcie proszę
nic sie nie przejmuj pokonaniem gornego ograniczenia kanalu spadkowego 1998-2001, taki trend nie jest ważny (nooooot). Jeśli zostanie pokonany opor na 102,100 to sobie dobierzesz kolejną eske na 108,700 :P
Obrazek

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cytrynek
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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: cytrynek »

GOLD H1
Harami i luka hossy. Wziąłem małą eLkę. SL ustawiony zgodnie z Nisonem na domknięciu luki.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Zamieszczane przeze mnie analizy i opinie są wyłącznie moim subiektywnym spojrzeniem na rynek i nie stanowią żadnych rekomendacji. Podejmowanie na ich podstawie decyzji inwestycyjnych odbywa się na własną odpowiedzialność inwestora.

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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Ciapul »

kamilao1987 pisze:dlaczego jen tak się osłabia? I czy tak będzie w nieskończoność? Powiedzcie proszę
http://makro.pb.pl/3455390,56103,japoni ... medium=rss
Fakt, że meduza przeżyła 650 milionów lat bez mózgu daje nadzieję wielu ludziom...

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Re: DayTrading: Wtorek 03.12.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Nowy123 »

kamilao1987 pisze:dlaczego jen tak się osłabia? I czy tak będzie w nieskończoność? Powiedzcie proszę
teraz jest szansa szczyt na U J 2 szczyt moga troche postraszyc tak jaka na NIKKE szczyty ostatnie

E J szansa byla na 138 ale musli by przejsc 139 - 138 90 dojechali i odbili wiec plan do zmiany czyli psychologiczne 140

a mamy t CARRY trade


U J stoi lub lekko spada to podciagaja E J i GBP JP y poprzez bazowa walute czylu EUR USD i GBP USD

po mimimo negatynej dywerygencji na h4 na E J czy G J kluczem bedzie odpadniecie NIKKIE i U J od szczytow

Zablokowany