DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
- ForexTig3r
- Maniak
- Posty: 2462
- Rejestracja: 15 maja 2012, 13:47
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
Pierwszy przystanek 123.30
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
subsilver2 趋势线
subsilver2 趋势线
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
odrzucił i co dalej?, pieniędzy jak nie było tak nie ma w bankach.Arturm21 pisze:cypr odrzucil jednak podatek od oszczednosci. Lecimy up. Od 6 bylo kilkadziesiat pipow do zgarniecia na ejku

- atlanticos
- Maniak
- Posty: 6716
- Rejestracja: 26 lis 2012, 10:55
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
dla tych co przegapili jak wczoraj pokazywałem...tu jesteśmy...jak dziś polecimy wyżej to piękny pas startowy do lotu nam się na D1 zrobi
P.S. pieniędzy w bankach może i nie ma ale nie ma też precedensu bo wtedy kradli by kiedy i gdzie by chcieli a to dla rynków istotna informacja że jednak nie mogą krasc
P.S. pieniędzy w bankach może i nie ma ale nie ma też precedensu bo wtedy kradli by kiedy i gdzie by chcieli a to dla rynków istotna informacja że jednak nie mogą krasc
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"Audaces fortuna iuvat" - Wergiliusz
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
No ale jak szybko gdzieś nie znajdą tych "drobnych" 6 mld Euro (może Rosja im da?) to pozostaje im tylko bankructwo i wyjście ze strefy Euro, co napewno w górę edka nie pociągnie.atlanticos pisze: P.S. pieniędzy w bankach może i nie ma ale nie ma też precedensu bo wtedy kradli by kiedy i gdzie by chcieli a to dla rynków istotna informacja że jednak nie mogą krasc
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
Minister finansów Cypru liczy na pomoc Rosji
ruscy już wysyłają flotę z pieniędzmi
ruscy już wysyłają flotę z pieniędzmi

- atlanticos
- Maniak
- Posty: 6716
- Rejestracja: 26 lis 2012, 10:55
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
przecież wczoraj już po głosowaniu na cyprze bank centralny podał że będzie im pomagał mimo to - stad dzis spokojniej na rynkachfxjake pisze:No ale jak szybko gdzieś nie znajdą tych "drobnych" 6 mld Euro (może Rosja im da?) to pozostaje im tylko bankructwo i wyjście ze strefy Euro, co napewno w górę edka nie pociągnie.atlanticos pisze: P.S. pieniędzy w bankach może i nie ma ale nie ma też precedensu bo wtedy kradli by kiedy i gdzie by chcieli a to dla rynków istotna informacja że jednak nie mogą krasc
"Audaces fortuna iuvat" - Wergiliusz
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
No skoro w bankach może nie ma kasy to może ją już ukradli więc po co dyskutować nad rozlanym mlekiem .To proste jakby chcieli uspokoić naród to wypłaciliby przynajmniej 10% z lokaty i dyskutowali dalej .Ale tej kasy w ogóle nie ma i to może być faktematlanticos pisze: P.S. pieniędzy w bankach może i nie ma ale nie ma też precedensu bo wtedy kradli by kiedy i gdzie by chcieli a to dla rynków istotna informacja że jednak nie mogą krasc

-- Dodano: śr 20-03-2013, 8:41 --
flotę po pieniądzedavor5 pisze: ruscy już wysyłają flotę z pieniędzmi

Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
-
- Gaduła
- Posty: 330
- Rejestracja: 11 lut 2013, 00:54
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
Jeśli mógłbym o coś prosić w ten piękny ostatni zimowy poranek to 125 na ejku. 
Z góry dziękuję Panie Morganie.

Z góry dziękuję Panie Morganie.
- atlanticos
- Maniak
- Posty: 6716
- Rejestracja: 26 lis 2012, 10:55
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
124 dostaniesz na pewno...a potem sie pomysli czy zasluzyles na więcejVanitas Vanitatum pisze:Jeśli mógłbym o coś prosić w ten piękny ostatni zimowy poranek to 125 na ejku.
Z góry dziękuję Panie Morganie.

nastroje na rynkach pięknie zlotóweczka od poźnego wieczoru obrazuje
"Audaces fortuna iuvat" - Wergiliusz
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
Poprowadzę Twój rachunek. Szczegóły na priv
- niemiaszek
- Przyjaciel Forum
- Posty: 5097
- Rejestracja: 08 lis 2010, 15:02
Re: DayTrading: Środa 20.03.2013
Hello
Cyprus will continue to dominate the headlines Wednesday, as the island looks
for a solution to the debt crisis in the wake of the Parliament's's no vote.
However, other stand out features will be the UK Budget statement and the FOMC
policy announcement.
EU:The calendar starts at 0700GMT, with the release of German February PPI numbers.
At 0800GMT, EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy and EU International Markets
Commissioner Michel Barnier are set to speak at a banking conference in
Brussels.
At 0845GMT, Sweden Riksbank Governor Stefan Inves is scheduled to give a speech
on "Managing structural risks in the Swedish banking sector," in Stockholm.
Eurozone data continues at 0900GMT, with the release of the January current
account data.
Also at 1100GMT, back in Europe, the EU Commission is to outline proposals on
economic policy coordination and options for a Eurozone budget, in Brussels.
Also at 1230GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen
will give a speech in Frankfurt, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
Economics Minister Philipp Roesler will give speeches to the German Chamber of
Industry and Commerce, in Berlin.
Further Eurozone data is expected from 1500GMT, when the March consumer
sentiment numbers will cross the wires.
EUROZONE: Eurogroup Pres. Dijsselbloem said that the Eurogroup ready to help
Cyprus in reform effort; also noted decision of the Cypriot Parliament on levy.
EUROZONE: The Cyprus Parliament in NY Tues hours rejected the bailout plan due
to the proposed tax on bank depositors to come up with part of the cost of the
bailout. The vote was 36 "no" and 19 abstentions in the single-house Parliament.
The European Central Bank said it would provide liquidity to the country under
current rules. Cyprus legislative leaders next meet privately Wednesday morning,
with Parliament meeting Thursday too. Cypriot banks - which are on an extended
bank holiday - reopen Thursday. "The market has been following Cyprus headlines
like crazy," said Sean Murphy: senior trader at Societe Generale in NY. "They
voted down the bailout measure. So, I don't think people know how to read that
too clearly. But they have to find an alternative. So, Treasuries will probably
be bid until there is further information on
what they will do to address their situation. The Treasuries market is in okay
shape."
EUROZONE: Martin Whetton, rates strategist at Nomura Securities in Sydney, noted
Cypriot lawmakers "voted to reject the levy on bank deposits in their country as
EU officials scrambled to find a way to change the levy on the small depositors
by suggesting larger depositors take more of the burden. In the end, the levy
which has been met with derision from many has simply not passed, and we await a
resolution. For markets, this means the Europe uncertainty clause is back. We
saw another bull flattening for the Euro Government market, with yields 3-5
basis points lower. Peripherals moved wider, with the Southern European markets
naturally under the most pressure. The ECB issued a statement late in the day to
say they would continue to provide liquidity to Cyprus, while a German lawmaker
said that there would be no rescue package if the conditions are not fulfilled."
GREECE: Greece is set to confirm the appointment Weds of the new head of the
privatisation fund, but eKathimerini says the privatisation programme itself
continues to suffer delays.
GERMAN PRESS: The Social Democratic party (SPD) has accused Angela Merkel of
being responsible for the disastrous situation in Cyprus, writes Der Spiegel.
Sigmar Gabriel, Head of the SPD, said: "Even if Angela Merkel does not want to
admit it, the situation in Cyprus has her signature". Merkel, he says, let a
situation happen, where a country with less inhabitants than the small German
state Saarland has managed to pull the rest of the Eurozone into chaos.
BUNDS: Traders say opening call is tricky for June Bunds given Japan is closed
due to Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Traders calling June Bund to open flat with
some saying up 10 ticks in the 142.72/75 area.
UK:The UK data calendar starts at 0930GMT, with the release of January's employment
and earnings data. Also at 0930GMT, the Bank of England minutes from the March
meeting are due, along with the February CML Mortgage Lending numbers.
The UK 2013-14 Budget Statement is expected at 1230GMT. Once again, the Budget
is seen set to extend austerity measures, with a further squeeze on public
spending.
UK PRESS: The UK Budget is due Weds, and the FT says the austerity drive is set
to continue, with the Chancellor looking for an additional stg 2.5 bn in
spending cuts.
UK PRESS: The Chancellor is set to announce personal tax allowances in the UK
are set to rise to stg 10,000 from April 2014, the Independent says.
UK PRESS: The Times looks at the recent jobs growth in the UK, and says the
employment growth was largely seen in England, with the Wales, Scotland and
Northern Ireland suffering from a "Celtic jobs drought."
UK PRESS: The FT says US pension fund giant Calpers has said its recent retreat
from commodities could be temporary and they could soon look to reinvest in the
sector as a hedge against inflation, the FT reports.
UK PRESS: The FT says an increasing number of US bond market investors are
looking at hedging instruments to increase protection on their holdings in case
of a rise in yields as the US economy picks up.
US:The US calendar starts at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index
for the March 15 week.
Back in the US, from 1430GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the March 15 week
will be released.
The outcome of the FOMC meeting and the policy forecasts will be released at
1800GMT and will be followed by the regular post-meeting press conference from
Fed Chair Bernanke at 1830GMT.
CFTC Chair Gary Gensler is slated to give a speech on commodity market
regulation to the IMF conference on global commodity prices at 1945GMT.
US PRESS: The Washington Post looks at the US construction sector, saying the
upturn in housing starts hasn't transformed into a sharp upturn in construction
jobs. The paper notes research by Goldmans suggesting the discrepancy could be a
result of "jobs hoarding" through the downturn, when firms did not lay off the
staff the market would appeared to have warranted.
DOLLAR: BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for March sees dollar bullishness
at record levels as appetite returns on recovering U.S. economy and equities
markets. Says net 72 percent of respondents expect dollar appreciation over the
next year, up 30 points on last month. U.S. also best region for corporate
profits outlook, respondents say. U.S. optimism counters China bearishness, with
only 14% of regional investors expecting the Chinese economy to be stronger in a
year's time, representing one of the sharpest falls in this reading in the
survey's history, Merrill says.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2873 after rate had been shoved to lows of
$1.2844 following the Cypriot Parliament rejection of the Troika bank deposit
levy, the move taking out barrier interest at $1.2850, with rate then recovering
to $1.2923 on ECB comments that they would continue to provide funding for
Cyprus before rate drifted back below $1.29 into the close. Rate continued to
ease into early Asia, touching a low at $1.2857 before recovering to $1.2880 and
settling between $1.2870/80 into Europe. Cyprus developments will continue to
provide headline risk and has potential to overshadow this afternoon's FOMC
(1800GMT) with Bernanke to follow up with a press conference at 1830GMT. Data
interest provided by Germany PPI at 0700GMT ahead of EZ current account at
0900GMT. Talk already suggesting Cyprus banks will remain closed until next
Tuesday (another Cyprus bank holiday Monday) while discussions continue over a
plan B and plan C. Euro-dollar demand now seen into Tuesday's low at $1.2844, a
break to open a deeper move toward $1.2835/25 ahead of $1.2800. Resistance
$1.2880/85, $1.2900 ahead of $1.2920/30.
EURO-DOLLAR: Breaks above $1.29, as traders report real money accounts seen
booking profit following Tuesday's fall. Rate edges on to $1.2905 ($1.2907 76.4%
$1.2923-1.2857) with stronger offers noted between $1.2920/30.
EURO-DOLLAR: Dip back under $1.2900, from $1.2905 sees another round of fresh
demand emerging (note traders earlier reported meeting the semi official ion the
bid between $1.2890/95) with rate now moving through $1.2907 (76.4%
$1.2923-1.2857) to $1.2910. Next resistance seen between $1.2920/30 ($1.2923 NY
recovery off $1.2844). Tech traders highlight that the rate closed below the
200-dma last night, with this line coming through today at $1.2877. These
traders now view the $1.2885/75 area as critical, suggesting a break and clear
below to open a deeper move toward $1.2800.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5100 after NY trade was contained within a range of
$1.5078-1.5144 leaving euro-sterling to track euro-dollar slippage, the rate
extending its recent corrective pullback to stg0.8506 before it closed around
stg0.8520. Cable eased to early lows of $1.5086 in Asia before fresh demand
emerged to take rate to session highs of $1.5107. Rate then reversed tack,
moving down to $1.5080 through the Asian afternoon before recovering above
$1.5090 ahead of the European open. The cross touched a low of stg0.8519 before
it recovered to stg0.85375 through the balance of the session. Sterling has been
able to weather the euro problems fairly well, but today's UK Budget will likely
prompt some paring back of any sterling longs as market awaits the announcement,
especially anything concerning the BOE's remit. The Budget will be announced at
1200GMT. Ahead of this BOE Minutes and employment data are due for release at
0930GMT. Most expect no change in the 6-3 split on QE extension. Cable demand
remains in place at $1.5080/70 ahead of $1.5050/40. Resistance $1.5100/10 ahead
of $1.5135 through to $1.5150. In the cross, demand remains in place between
stg0.8510/00, resistance stg0.8540/50 ahead of stg0.8575/85.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY around Y95.10 after recovering off a NY session low
of Y94.72. The move down was seen as rate was dragged lower by heavy euro-yen
sales linked to market reaction to the Cyprus government rejection of the Troika
bank deposit levy, the cross seeing lows of Y121.84 before it closed back at
Y122.40. Dollar-yen edged on to Y95.20 in Asia before it was knocked back to
Y94.83 but traders noted that an Asian real money player has been an interested
buyer into dips in this area for the past few sessions, possibly related to the
reported large European Y95.20 digital that is due to roll off at today's NY
cut. Traders also note that a large plain vanilla with this strike also rolls
off at the same time. With this in mind most expect rate to be anchored top this
level ahead of maturity. Rate recovered through the balance of the Asian
session, opening Europe back at Y95.18. Euro-yen eased to Y122.04 in early Asian
trade before it recovered to Y122.65 into Europe. Japanese holiday today with
market awaiting any announcement today or tomorrow from the new governorship for
direction.
DOLLAR-YEN: Traders flash the same Asian real money player who was buying on
dips around Y94.80, seen on the offer at current levels. Rate last Y95.29 with
initial resistance at Y95.36 (5-day ma), ahead of offers into Y95.40/50. Tight
range trade expected today with the reported large European Y95.20 digital
rolling off for the NY cut.
DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y96.60/71 2.00% Upper MA envelope, 12 Mar high
Y96.45/50 Strong offers
Y96.25/30 Medium offers (Y96.28 - 15 Mar high)
Y96.00 Strong offers, stops
Y95.80/85 Minor offers
Y95.70/75 Medium offers (Y95.75 - March 19 high)
Y95.07 ***Current mkt rate 0626 Tuesday
Y94.73 March 19 low
Y94.67 23.6% of Y88.06-96.71
Y94.50 Strong demand
Y94.30/20 Stops, 21-day ma
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2870, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000
* Dollar-yen; Y94.00, Y95.00, Y95.20(large), Y95.25, Y95.75, Y96.00.
Exotic Y95.20 European digital(large)
* Euro-yen; Y121.00, Y125.00, Y125.20
* Cable; $1.5050, $1.5100, $1.5200
* Aussie; $1.0245, $1.0350, $1.0400
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: German comes to the eurozone sovereign bond market Wednesday
with reopening of its 10-year 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue for up to E4.0bln.
Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is now estimated to
come in around E24.17bln vs E22.28bln sold last week. As a recap, Slovakia
kicked off issuance on Monday with tap of the floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and
also 3.875% Feb 2033 SLOVGB224 issues for E99.8mln and E50.5mln, respectively.
The Netherlands launched its new 10-year bond 1.75% July 2023 DSL via the Dutch
Direct Auction (DDA) for E6.52bln. Looking ahead, France sells a new 0.25% Nov
2015 OAT and also taps its 1.00% Mar 2018 OAT issues on Thursday for between
E7.0bln-E8bln. In addition, the AFT plans to tap the 0.25% July 2018 OATei,
1.30% July 2019 OATi and also 1.85% July 2027 OATei for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln.
Also Thursday, Spain taps its 2-year benchmark 2.75% 2015 Bono, 10-year
benchmark 5.40% 2023 Obligacion and also off-the-run 4.50% 2018 Bono for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and coupon payments from Italy E0.1bln and Greece E0.1bln -- leaves net
cash flow negative to the tune of E24.0bln vs -E0.3bln last week.
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its 10-year
benchmark 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. The issue
trades at 1.354% mid-yield and has richened in recent sessions amid heightened
uncertainty in both Italy and Cyprus, with yield now approaching lows seen at
the start of the year. In addition, the record low coupon and fact that the
issue isn't the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) into June future. That said, the
E18.0bln redemption of 1.50% Schatz issue on Mar 15 is seen underpinning
demand. Historic results show demand has been mixed. The last auction on Feb 20
was barely covered, with E4.04bln alloted at an average yield 1.66%,
bid-to-cover 1.2 times and the Buba retaining 19.2% of the sale. At the
inaugural auction on Jan 16, E4.007bln was alloted at an average yield of 1.56%
and covered 1.7 times, with the Buba retaining 19.9% of the sale. The average
cover ratio for the past 5 auctions is 1.42 times. This is the second tap of
this issue and is due to be re-opened again sometime in April for E4.0bln,
before a new May 2023 is sold in May for E5.0bln. Auction results are due after
bidding close at 1030GMT.
PORTUGAL T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Portugal's debt agency, Instituto de Gestao da
Credito Publico (IGCP) will re-open 3-month T-bill, maturing Jun 21, 2013 and
issue new 18-month T-bill, maturing Sep 19, 2014 for an indicative amount of
E1.25-E1.5bln Wednesday. Mid-yield on the 3-month BT is seen around 0.814%,
which is above the average yield of 0.737% seen at the Feb 20 auction, where
E345mln was sold with cover of 2.4 times. At the last 18-month BT auction on Jan
16, the IGCP allotted E1.0bln at average yield 2.963% and covered 2.7 times.
Demand is seen underpinned by Portuguese T-bill redemption of E2.57bln on Mar
23. Auction results are due to be announced around 1045GMT.
Cyprus will continue to dominate the headlines Wednesday, as the island looks
for a solution to the debt crisis in the wake of the Parliament's's no vote.
However, other stand out features will be the UK Budget statement and the FOMC
policy announcement.
EU:The calendar starts at 0700GMT, with the release of German February PPI numbers.
At 0800GMT, EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy and EU International Markets
Commissioner Michel Barnier are set to speak at a banking conference in
Brussels.
At 0845GMT, Sweden Riksbank Governor Stefan Inves is scheduled to give a speech
on "Managing structural risks in the Swedish banking sector," in Stockholm.
Eurozone data continues at 0900GMT, with the release of the January current
account data.
Also at 1100GMT, back in Europe, the EU Commission is to outline proposals on
economic policy coordination and options for a Eurozone budget, in Brussels.
Also at 1230GMT, European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen
will give a speech in Frankfurt, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel and
Economics Minister Philipp Roesler will give speeches to the German Chamber of
Industry and Commerce, in Berlin.
Further Eurozone data is expected from 1500GMT, when the March consumer
sentiment numbers will cross the wires.
EUROZONE: Eurogroup Pres. Dijsselbloem said that the Eurogroup ready to help
Cyprus in reform effort; also noted decision of the Cypriot Parliament on levy.
EUROZONE: The Cyprus Parliament in NY Tues hours rejected the bailout plan due
to the proposed tax on bank depositors to come up with part of the cost of the
bailout. The vote was 36 "no" and 19 abstentions in the single-house Parliament.
The European Central Bank said it would provide liquidity to the country under
current rules. Cyprus legislative leaders next meet privately Wednesday morning,
with Parliament meeting Thursday too. Cypriot banks - which are on an extended
bank holiday - reopen Thursday. "The market has been following Cyprus headlines
like crazy," said Sean Murphy: senior trader at Societe Generale in NY. "They
voted down the bailout measure. So, I don't think people know how to read that
too clearly. But they have to find an alternative. So, Treasuries will probably
be bid until there is further information on
what they will do to address their situation. The Treasuries market is in okay
shape."
EUROZONE: Martin Whetton, rates strategist at Nomura Securities in Sydney, noted
Cypriot lawmakers "voted to reject the levy on bank deposits in their country as
EU officials scrambled to find a way to change the levy on the small depositors
by suggesting larger depositors take more of the burden. In the end, the levy
which has been met with derision from many has simply not passed, and we await a
resolution. For markets, this means the Europe uncertainty clause is back. We
saw another bull flattening for the Euro Government market, with yields 3-5
basis points lower. Peripherals moved wider, with the Southern European markets
naturally under the most pressure. The ECB issued a statement late in the day to
say they would continue to provide liquidity to Cyprus, while a German lawmaker
said that there would be no rescue package if the conditions are not fulfilled."
GREECE: Greece is set to confirm the appointment Weds of the new head of the
privatisation fund, but eKathimerini says the privatisation programme itself
continues to suffer delays.
GERMAN PRESS: The Social Democratic party (SPD) has accused Angela Merkel of
being responsible for the disastrous situation in Cyprus, writes Der Spiegel.
Sigmar Gabriel, Head of the SPD, said: "Even if Angela Merkel does not want to
admit it, the situation in Cyprus has her signature". Merkel, he says, let a
situation happen, where a country with less inhabitants than the small German
state Saarland has managed to pull the rest of the Eurozone into chaos.
BUNDS: Traders say opening call is tricky for June Bunds given Japan is closed
due to Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Traders calling June Bund to open flat with
some saying up 10 ticks in the 142.72/75 area.
UK:The UK data calendar starts at 0930GMT, with the release of January's employment
and earnings data. Also at 0930GMT, the Bank of England minutes from the March
meeting are due, along with the February CML Mortgage Lending numbers.
The UK 2013-14 Budget Statement is expected at 1230GMT. Once again, the Budget
is seen set to extend austerity measures, with a further squeeze on public
spending.
UK PRESS: The UK Budget is due Weds, and the FT says the austerity drive is set
to continue, with the Chancellor looking for an additional stg 2.5 bn in
spending cuts.
UK PRESS: The Chancellor is set to announce personal tax allowances in the UK
are set to rise to stg 10,000 from April 2014, the Independent says.
UK PRESS: The Times looks at the recent jobs growth in the UK, and says the
employment growth was largely seen in England, with the Wales, Scotland and
Northern Ireland suffering from a "Celtic jobs drought."
UK PRESS: The FT says US pension fund giant Calpers has said its recent retreat
from commodities could be temporary and they could soon look to reinvest in the
sector as a hedge against inflation, the FT reports.
UK PRESS: The FT says an increasing number of US bond market investors are
looking at hedging instruments to increase protection on their holdings in case
of a rise in yields as the US economy picks up.
US:The US calendar starts at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index
for the March 15 week.
Back in the US, from 1430GMT, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the March 15 week
will be released.
The outcome of the FOMC meeting and the policy forecasts will be released at
1800GMT and will be followed by the regular post-meeting press conference from
Fed Chair Bernanke at 1830GMT.

CFTC Chair Gary Gensler is slated to give a speech on commodity market
regulation to the IMF conference on global commodity prices at 1945GMT.
US PRESS: The Washington Post looks at the US construction sector, saying the
upturn in housing starts hasn't transformed into a sharp upturn in construction
jobs. The paper notes research by Goldmans suggesting the discrepancy could be a
result of "jobs hoarding" through the downturn, when firms did not lay off the
staff the market would appeared to have warranted.
DOLLAR: BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for March sees dollar bullishness
at record levels as appetite returns on recovering U.S. economy and equities
markets. Says net 72 percent of respondents expect dollar appreciation over the
next year, up 30 points on last month. U.S. also best region for corporate
profits outlook, respondents say. U.S. optimism counters China bearishness, with
only 14% of regional investors expecting the Chinese economy to be stronger in a
year's time, representing one of the sharpest falls in this reading in the
survey's history, Merrill says.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2873 after rate had been shoved to lows of
$1.2844 following the Cypriot Parliament rejection of the Troika bank deposit
levy, the move taking out barrier interest at $1.2850, with rate then recovering
to $1.2923 on ECB comments that they would continue to provide funding for
Cyprus before rate drifted back below $1.29 into the close. Rate continued to
ease into early Asia, touching a low at $1.2857 before recovering to $1.2880 and
settling between $1.2870/80 into Europe. Cyprus developments will continue to
provide headline risk and has potential to overshadow this afternoon's FOMC
(1800GMT) with Bernanke to follow up with a press conference at 1830GMT. Data
interest provided by Germany PPI at 0700GMT ahead of EZ current account at
0900GMT. Talk already suggesting Cyprus banks will remain closed until next
Tuesday (another Cyprus bank holiday Monday) while discussions continue over a
plan B and plan C. Euro-dollar demand now seen into Tuesday's low at $1.2844, a
break to open a deeper move toward $1.2835/25 ahead of $1.2800. Resistance
$1.2880/85, $1.2900 ahead of $1.2920/30.
EURO-DOLLAR: Breaks above $1.29, as traders report real money accounts seen
booking profit following Tuesday's fall. Rate edges on to $1.2905 ($1.2907 76.4%
$1.2923-1.2857) with stronger offers noted between $1.2920/30.
EURO-DOLLAR: Dip back under $1.2900, from $1.2905 sees another round of fresh
demand emerging (note traders earlier reported meeting the semi official ion the
bid between $1.2890/95) with rate now moving through $1.2907 (76.4%
$1.2923-1.2857) to $1.2910. Next resistance seen between $1.2920/30 ($1.2923 NY
recovery off $1.2844). Tech traders highlight that the rate closed below the
200-dma last night, with this line coming through today at $1.2877. These
traders now view the $1.2885/75 area as critical, suggesting a break and clear
below to open a deeper move toward $1.2800.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5100 after NY trade was contained within a range of
$1.5078-1.5144 leaving euro-sterling to track euro-dollar slippage, the rate
extending its recent corrective pullback to stg0.8506 before it closed around
stg0.8520. Cable eased to early lows of $1.5086 in Asia before fresh demand
emerged to take rate to session highs of $1.5107. Rate then reversed tack,
moving down to $1.5080 through the Asian afternoon before recovering above
$1.5090 ahead of the European open. The cross touched a low of stg0.8519 before
it recovered to stg0.85375 through the balance of the session. Sterling has been
able to weather the euro problems fairly well, but today's UK Budget will likely
prompt some paring back of any sterling longs as market awaits the announcement,
especially anything concerning the BOE's remit. The Budget will be announced at
1200GMT. Ahead of this BOE Minutes and employment data are due for release at
0930GMT. Most expect no change in the 6-3 split on QE extension. Cable demand
remains in place at $1.5080/70 ahead of $1.5050/40. Resistance $1.5100/10 ahead
of $1.5135 through to $1.5150. In the cross, demand remains in place between
stg0.8510/00, resistance stg0.8540/50 ahead of stg0.8575/85.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY around Y95.10 after recovering off a NY session low
of Y94.72. The move down was seen as rate was dragged lower by heavy euro-yen
sales linked to market reaction to the Cyprus government rejection of the Troika
bank deposit levy, the cross seeing lows of Y121.84 before it closed back at
Y122.40. Dollar-yen edged on to Y95.20 in Asia before it was knocked back to
Y94.83 but traders noted that an Asian real money player has been an interested
buyer into dips in this area for the past few sessions, possibly related to the
reported large European Y95.20 digital that is due to roll off at today's NY
cut. Traders also note that a large plain vanilla with this strike also rolls
off at the same time. With this in mind most expect rate to be anchored top this
level ahead of maturity. Rate recovered through the balance of the Asian
session, opening Europe back at Y95.18. Euro-yen eased to Y122.04 in early Asian
trade before it recovered to Y122.65 into Europe. Japanese holiday today with
market awaiting any announcement today or tomorrow from the new governorship for
direction.
DOLLAR-YEN: Traders flash the same Asian real money player who was buying on
dips around Y94.80, seen on the offer at current levels. Rate last Y95.29 with
initial resistance at Y95.36 (5-day ma), ahead of offers into Y95.40/50. Tight
range trade expected today with the reported large European Y95.20 digital
rolling off for the NY cut.
DOLLAR-YEN: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y96.60/71 2.00% Upper MA envelope, 12 Mar high
Y96.45/50 Strong offers
Y96.25/30 Medium offers (Y96.28 - 15 Mar high)
Y96.00 Strong offers, stops
Y95.80/85 Minor offers
Y95.70/75 Medium offers (Y95.75 - March 19 high)
Y95.07 ***Current mkt rate 0626 Tuesday
Y94.73 March 19 low
Y94.67 23.6% of Y88.06-96.71
Y94.50 Strong demand
Y94.30/20 Stops, 21-day ma
OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2870, $1.2920, $1.2950, $1.3000
* Dollar-yen; Y94.00, Y95.00, Y95.20(large), Y95.25, Y95.75, Y96.00.
Exotic Y95.20 European digital(large)
* Euro-yen; Y121.00, Y125.00, Y125.20
* Cable; $1.5050, $1.5100, $1.5200
* Aussie; $1.0245, $1.0350, $1.0400
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: German comes to the eurozone sovereign bond market Wednesday
with reopening of its 10-year 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue for up to E4.0bln.
Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is now estimated to
come in around E24.17bln vs E22.28bln sold last week. As a recap, Slovakia
kicked off issuance on Monday with tap of the floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and
also 3.875% Feb 2033 SLOVGB224 issues for E99.8mln and E50.5mln, respectively.
The Netherlands launched its new 10-year bond 1.75% July 2023 DSL via the Dutch
Direct Auction (DDA) for E6.52bln. Looking ahead, France sells a new 0.25% Nov
2015 OAT and also taps its 1.00% Mar 2018 OAT issues on Thursday for between
E7.0bln-E8bln. In addition, the AFT plans to tap the 0.25% July 2018 OATei,
1.30% July 2019 OATi and also 1.85% July 2027 OATei for between E1.0bln-E1.5bln.
Also Thursday, Spain taps its 2-year benchmark 2.75% 2015 Bono, 10-year
benchmark 5.40% 2023 Obligacion and also off-the-run 4.50% 2018 Bono for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no redemption
payments and coupon payments from Italy E0.1bln and Greece E0.1bln -- leaves net
cash flow negative to the tune of E24.0bln vs -E0.3bln last week.
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur re-opens its 10-year
benchmark 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund issue Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. The issue
trades at 1.354% mid-yield and has richened in recent sessions amid heightened
uncertainty in both Italy and Cyprus, with yield now approaching lows seen at
the start of the year. In addition, the record low coupon and fact that the
issue isn't the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) into June future. That said, the
E18.0bln redemption of 1.50% Schatz issue on Mar 15 is seen underpinning
demand. Historic results show demand has been mixed. The last auction on Feb 20
was barely covered, with E4.04bln alloted at an average yield 1.66%,
bid-to-cover 1.2 times and the Buba retaining 19.2% of the sale. At the
inaugural auction on Jan 16, E4.007bln was alloted at an average yield of 1.56%
and covered 1.7 times, with the Buba retaining 19.9% of the sale. The average
cover ratio for the past 5 auctions is 1.42 times. This is the second tap of
this issue and is due to be re-opened again sometime in April for E4.0bln,
before a new May 2023 is sold in May for E5.0bln. Auction results are due after
bidding close at 1030GMT.
PORTUGAL T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Portugal's debt agency, Instituto de Gestao da
Credito Publico (IGCP) will re-open 3-month T-bill, maturing Jun 21, 2013 and
issue new 18-month T-bill, maturing Sep 19, 2014 for an indicative amount of
E1.25-E1.5bln Wednesday. Mid-yield on the 3-month BT is seen around 0.814%,
which is above the average yield of 0.737% seen at the Feb 20 auction, where
E345mln was sold with cover of 2.4 times. At the last 18-month BT auction on Jan
16, the IGCP allotted E1.0bln at average yield 2.963% and covered 2.7 times.
Demand is seen underpinned by Portuguese T-bill redemption of E2.57bln on Mar
23. Auction results are due to be announced around 1045GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"