1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with the
US ADP employment report widely anticipated ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls
data. The European calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of the German
November trade data. Euro are data set for release at 1000GMT include the EMU
November unemployment and retail sales numbers. Unemployment is seen at 12.1%,
unchanged on October. Retail sales are sees higher by 0.1% on month, up 0.3% on
year. German November manufacturing orders will cross the wire at 1100GMT.
Economists see orders up 1.5% on month, up 6% on year. US Treasury Secretary
Jack Lew continues his European trip and meets with German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin. Later he will meet with Portugal Prime Minister
Pedro Passos Coelho and Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque in Lisbon.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro traded a $1.3596 to $1.3651 range in the US last night,
starting in Asia at $1.3616 this morning and then following that up in a narrow
$1.3610/20 range through the early hours. Euro-dollar dipped further to a
$1.3605 low soon after the start of the Japanese stock market session and then
rallied together with euro-yen's strong rebound. Euro-dollar traded a $1.3635
high, as it was carried up also by rumored strong bids from $1.3580 and $1.3560,
with some dealers saying these belonged to European accounts. Euro-dollar's
gains also ran out of steam after the highs were traded as some traders also
began chatting about sell orders from an Asian reserve manager at $1.3650. By
the early afternoon here, euro-dollar was holding at $1.3632, not very far from
the earlier peak and higher than where it had started the day this morning.
EUR/USD: Euro-dollar holds above the 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893 level at $1.3594
while bears continue to pressure the downside. A break below $1.3600 level
should see bears test the key July support line at $1.3570, a close beneath this
level could accelerate losses to the 200-DMA at $1.3329. However, daily studies
are near oversold and further failure to the downside adds risk higher and could
threaten a test of the $1.3893 reversal high.
08-Jan-2014 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Struggle To Break $1.3600 Barrier
RES 4: $1.3820 Rising channel base, Daily Bolli top
RES 3: $1.3754 Former Nov 7 support line
RES 2: $1.3703/07 21-DMA, Low Dec 13
RES 1: $1.3653 High Jan 6
LATEST PRICE: $1.3632
SUP 1: $1.3587/94 Daily Bolli base, 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
SUP 2: $1.3570 Support line from Jul 9
SUP 3: $1.3524/44 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893, 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3462 Low Sept 25
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar holds above the 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893 level at $1.3594
while bears continue to pressure the downside. A break below $1.3600 level
should see bears test the key July support line at $1.3570, a close beneath this
level could accelerate losses to the 200-DMA at $1.3329. However, daily studies
are near oversold and further failure to the downside adds risk higher and could
threaten a test of the $1.3893 reversal high.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3750 Medium offers
*$1.3720/25 Medium offers
*$1.3700/10 Medium offers/$1.3703 21-dma
*$1.3670/80 Medium offers
*$1.3657 Jan7 high
*$1.3643 76.4% $1.3657-1.3596 ($1.3634 61.8%)/40-dma
*$1.3635 Int.Day high Asia (NY recovery high $1.3640 Jan7)
*$1.3628 ***Current mkt rate 0643GMT Wednesday
*$1.3623 55-dma
*$1.3605 Int.Day low Asia/$1.3608 50-dma
*$1.3600/595 Strong demand ($1.3596 Jan7 low)/$1.3590 Stops
*$1.3575/70 Medium demand/$1.3572 Jan6 low/Stops on break
*$1.3568 T-line off Jul9 2013 lows
*$1.3555/50 Strong demand/Stops
*$1.3525/20 Medium demand/$1.3524 61.8% $1.3295-1.3894, Dec3 low
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Tuesday at $1.6403 after rate recovered
from a NY session low of $1.6374 to $1.6438 before it drifted off into the
close. This late corrective pullback continued into Asia with the clear back
under $1.6400 providing the added momentum to take it to session lows of $1.6377
before bouncing back toward $1.6400. where it met resistance ahead of Asian
lunch. Into the afternoon and cable gained a stronger round of demand which
lifted it above the figure and taking it on to a late session high of $1.6420.
Pullbacks into Europe have been buoyed above $1.6400, the rate currently trading
around $1.6412 at writing. Euro-sterling was confined to a stg0.83025-0.83165
range through Asia. Halifax house price data due at 0800GMT with BOE Credit
Conditions Survey at 0930GMT to provide domestic interest this morning. US ADP
at 1315GMT the afternoon interest, ahead of Friday's US NFP, with FOMC Minutes
(Dec17-18 meeting) at 1900GMT overshadowing. ECB rate announcement and press
conference Thursday moving into view ahead of Friday's key US jobs data. Cable
offers seen from $1.6438 and extend toward $1.6450. Support $1.6375/70 ahead of
$1.6350 and recent pullback low at $1.6337.
GBP/USD: Cable leaves another doji around the 21-DMA which still shows a lack of
direction - daily studies either trend sideways or are bearish so risk remains
for a test of the key July support line at $1.6329 and just below is the 38.2%
of $1.5855-1.6603 at $1.6317. A move through these levels threatens the Nov 12
low at $1.5855, however failure to break below the July support line could flip
sentiment higher despite overbought weekly/monthly studies.
08-Jan-2014 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Leaves 2nd Doji Above July Support Line At $1.6329
RES 4: $1.6603 Reversal high Jan 2
RES 3: $1.6553 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6484 High Dec 18
RES 1: $1.6434/39 Highs Jan 6, 7
LATEST PRICE: $1.6413
SUP 1: $1.6329 July Support line
SUP 2: $1.6317 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603
SUP 3: $1.6273 Former Monthly Triangle Top
SUP 4: $1.6244/56 Daily Bolli base, 55-DMA
COMMENTARY: Cable leaves another doji around the 21-DMA which still shows a lack
of direction - daily studies either trend sideways or are bearish so risk
remains for a test of the key July support line at $1.6329 and just below is the
38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603 at $1.6317. A move through these levels threatens the
Nov 12 low at $1.5855, however failure to break below the July support line
could flip sentiment higher despite overbought weekly/monthly studies.
YEN SUMMARY: A minor down day for the Japanese currency this morning, with both
dollar-yen and euro-yen gaining through the Asian session, supported by better
risk appetite on the back of better stock market performance. Dollar-yen opened
at Y104.62 after after dovish comments from the Fed's Rosengren pushed the pair
to a low of Y104.33 in the US. Euro-yen meanwhile started at Y142.42 after an
overnight low of Y142.22. Early trades then saw yen pair edge higher, with
dollar-yen going to Y104.74 initially while euro-yen rose to Y142.60 ahead of
the stock market opening. Both pairs then witnessed a spike higher after
Japanese stocks opened in positive territory. Dollar-yen jumped to Y104.89 but
ran into sell interest ahead of a Y105.00 barrier which hampered the move up
initially. It eased to Y104.77 and then made another run up to a session high of
Y104.94 before being turned back again. Euro-yen rallied to Y142.98 before the
gains then tapered off as dollar-yen failed to follow-through. Early afternoon
revival sees dollar-yen test the Y105.00 mark but so far has not broken through
while euro-yen has managed to push through Y143 for a high of Y143.15.
Dollar-yen last at Y104.97 while the cross was last at Y143.13.
USD/JPY: Dollar-yen makes further progress higher after failing to break below
the Y104.00 level - daily studies show the potential to reverse higher while
weekly studies remain overbought. Bulls look to retest the Jan highs around
Y105.44 and a break above targets the resistance line from August 1998 at
Y106.18. However, failure at the Jan highs could see weekly/monthly studies
reverse lower and threaten a move back toward the daily Ichimoku cloud.
08-Jan-2014 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Focus Turns To Jan 2 High At Y105.44
RES 4: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
RES 3: Y105.92 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
RES 1: Y104.98/105.00 Low Dec 30, Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y104.95
SUP 1: Y104.55 Low Jan 2
SUP 2: Y104.08/25 Low Jan 3, 21-DMA
SUP 3: Y103.91 Low Jan 6
SUP 4: Y103.54/59 Daily Kijun line, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen makes further progress higher after failing to break
below the Y104.00 level - daily studies show the potential to reverse higher
while weekly studies remain overbought. Bulls look to retest the Jan highs
around Y105.44 and a break above targets the resistance line from August 1998 at
Y106.18. However, failure at the Jan highs could see weekly/monthly studies
reverse lower and threaten a move back toward the daily Ichimoku cloud.
EUR/JPY: Euro-yen turns higher after failing to sustain a move below the daily
Kijun line and 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69 - now initial support at Y142.06/28.
Focus is turning to the upside as daily studies show signs of a reversal higher
- a move through the daily Tenkan line at Y143.60 likely targets a move to the
Dec 27 reversal high at Y145.69. However, weekly/monthly studies remain
overbought and failure to break resistance will add downside pressure.
08-Jan-2014 7:41
EURO-YEN TECHS: Rises Despite O/B Weekly & Monthly Studies
RES 4: Y145.04 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
RES 2: Y143.60 Daily Tenkan line
RES 1: Y143.32 High Jan 3
LATEST PRICE: Y142.90
SUP 1: Y142.06/28 Daily Kijun, 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
SUP 2: Y141.42/50 Low Dec 13, Low Jan 6
SUP 3: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 4: Y140.64 Daily Bollinger band base
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen turns higher after failing to sustain a move below the
daily Kijun line and 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69 - now initial support at
Y142.06/28. Focus is turning to the upside as daily studies show signs of a
reversal higher - a move through the daily Tenkan line at Y143.60 likely targets
a move to the Dec 27 reversal high at Y145.69. However, weekly/monthly studies
remain overbought and failure to break resistance will add downside pressure.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Wednesday higher, recouping
losses suffered in the first two trading days of 2014. The Nikkei 225 gained
307.08 points, or 1.94%, to stand at 16121.45. The broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 19.97 points at 1303.22. Nikkei market breadth saw 202 issues trade
higher, 17 lower and 6 unchanged. Preliminary volume for the session was 1.707
billion.
Troche inny sposob ale poziomy praktycznie mamy bardzo podobne z tego co widze kabel obstawiam podbitke pod 1.6466 i potem zjazd mocny a edek z tych poziomow jazda do dolu niebawem
psxor pisze:Troche inny sposob ale poziomy praktycznie mamy bardzo podobne z tego co widze kabel obstawiam podbitke pod 1.6466 i potem zjazd mocny a edek z tych poziomow jazda do dolu niebawem
tak z ciekawości - pokaż swój sposób
Fakt, że meduza przeżyła 650 milionów lat bez mózgu daje nadzieję wielu ludziom...
Troche inny sposob ale poziomy praktycznie mamy bardzo podobne z tego co widze kabel obstawiam podbitke pod 1.6466 i potem zjazd mocny a edek z tych poziomow jazda do dolu niebawem
ciasno na kablu cholernie ciasno się robi
-- Dodano: 08 sty 2014, 11:05 --
rzeźnik,
ponowny test mierzenia fibo, jak pęknie pojedziemy wyżej, obroni - większa korekta???
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Edek kolejny sygnał na sell u mnie, 1,3614 oczekujące załączone.
P.S. Bemowo widze że z ostrzeżeniem siedzisz - za cóż to się dostało od władzy?
Ostatnio zmieniony 08 sty 2014, 10:15 przez yeahman, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
Zamieszczane przeze mnie wykresy pokazują jedyne słuszne spojrzenie na rynek i stanowią jednoznaczną rekomendacje. Podejmowanie na ich podstawie decyzji inwestycyjnych jest świetnym pomysłem.
psxor pisze:Troche inny sposob ale poziomy praktycznie mamy bardzo podobne z tego co widze kabel obstawiam podbitke pod 1.6466 i potem zjazd mocny a edek z tych poziomow jazda do dolu niebawem
kabel obstawiam podbitke pod 1.6466 i potem zjazd mocny a edek z tych poziomow jazda do dolu niebawem
