Trzeba się zastanowić jaka może być korekta do wystąpienie Wielkiego Mario
Jeżeli wypowie sie optymistycznie o gospodarce nic na temat drożejącego euro to polecimy na 1.42 jak nic
a ja mam lota na S od 1.3260 wiec poważnie potrzebuje porady gdzie zamknąć stratę już czy poczekać że koreta wystąpi wcześniej przed wystąpieniem ale do jakiego poziomu!!!
Panowie i panie mam zapytanie co z kablem się stanie czy l ka to wyzwanie czy okaze sie rozczarowanie trzeba udać się na sniadanie czy mogę zjeść zdecydowanie ze nic z depo się nie stanie czy zmienić zdanie wejść w s niespodziewanie ??????
[quote="pkubiu"]ostatnio grałam na nim na S jak był powyżej 1,58- to wyśmiewali mnie że gram pod prąd. tak ze niedoświadczona blondynka nic ci nie powie
Podpisze petycje "byś dawała" mi korepetycje na luki gotyckie mam już swoją wizje wezmiemy się ostro za naukę nie będzie czasu na nudę
EUROPE: This week sees a light schedule of releases in the US, but Europe looks
forward
to meeting and decisions by both the ECB and the Bank of England. Monday sees
the week get off to a fairly slow start. The first release of the day sees
Spain's January unemployment report cross the wires, with the latest look at
Spain's jobless numbers. At 1000GMT, the EMU Dec PPI data will be released. Back
on the continent, at 1700GMT, Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel is slated to
speak on the Eurozone debt crisis, in Hamburg. At 1845GMT, the Economic and
Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament are due to hold a key vote
on OTC derivative trading legislation.
SPAIN: The FT says Spain PM Rajoy comes under further pressure as he becomes
further embroiled in the latest scandals, with certain opposition lawmakers now
calling for his resignation.
FRANCE PRESS: The euro has regained too much strength recently, France's finance
minister and the head of the country's employer association said Sunday. For
Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, the comment was little more than aside in an
assessment of the improved state of the Eurozone: "The euro is doing better, the
euro is stable, the euro is strong - perhaps even too strong in certain
respects," he said in a television interview. The comments echo those of his
deputy minister for industry, Arnaud Montebourg, who had declared a few days
earlier that the single currency had reached a level that was too high for the
French and European economies and that the government was watching the situation
closely.
UK: UK data sees the release of the January CIPS/Markit Construction PMI numbers
at 0930GMT. Some business confidence surveys are starting to show some pick-ups
in sentiment and this will be closely watched for any sign of an uptick in the
building sector.
UK clearer RBS, 84% owned by the State, is set to cut staff bonuses in order to
pay fines relating to the LIBOR scandal to US regulators, the FT says, adding
the move came after intervention from the Chancellor George Osborne.
UK PRESS: The FT says George Osborne will use a speech on Monday to warn UK
banks that they risk break up into commercial/investment banking arms if they
fail to comply fully with new financial safety rules.
UK PRESS: The total number of new jobs created in January trebled from Decembers
multi year high to 2500 jobs, recruitment consultants Astbury Marsden say, the
Independent reports. However, the head hunters note that the creation of new
jobs remains very constricted and running far below the 12,000 or so new jobs
added every month before the GFC.
UK PRESS: As the UK's financial services sector stabilises, the latest Ernst and
Young ITEM Club reports says that bank lending is expected to rise in 2013 for
the first time since 2010, the FT reports.
UK PRESS: UK business confidence is picking up at the fastest pace in 18 months,
the Independent says, with many surveys running at multi-month highs. The paper
says both Icaew/Grant Thornton and Lloyd's Bank surveys are higher, with the the
former predicting that the surge in its Business Confidence Monitor index from +
4.2 at the end of last year to 12.8 suggests the economy will grow 0.4% in Q1,
thus avoiding a triple dip recession. The monthly Lloyds Bank Business Barometer
finds the net balance of firms that are positive about their trading outlook
rose 6 points to 46% in January. According to the paper, Lloyd's are also is
also forecasting a "modest expansion" in the economy in Q1.
US PRESS: President Barack Obama said there's "no doubt" additional revenue is
needed to bring down the US deficit, but believes lawmakers can do it without
the need to hike taxes. "I don't think the issue right now is raising rates,"
the president said in an interview with CBS News. "There's no doubt we need
additional revenue, coupled with smart, spending reductions in order to bring
down our deficit. And we can do it in a gradual way so that it doesn't have a
huge impact." Rather than raising taxes, the president proposed gutting
government waste, reforming health care and closing loopholes that he suggested
allow wealthy Americans to manipulate their tax rates.
DOLLAR: Speculative accounts increased their net euro long position along with
their net yen short position as of January 29, according to U.S. CFTC data
released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section,
excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro long position of +27,472
contracts as of Tuesday, vs last week's net euro long of +21,381 contracts. This
is the largest net euro long since July 5, 2011 (+43,194 contracts). This week's
net long contrasts to the record net euro long of +119,538 contracts seen May
15, 2007 and the record net euro short of -214,418 contracts, seen June 5, 2012.
Spec accounts had a net yen short of -71,246 contracts as per Jan 29, vs the
prior week's net yen short of -64,068 contracts and the yen short of -94,401
contracts from Dec 11, which was the largest net yen short position since July
2007. The record net yen short of -188,077 contracts was seen June 26, 2007 and
the record net yen long of +65,920 contracts seen March 25, 2008. The euro
closed near $1.3491 and dollar-yen at Y90.73 January 29, which compared to
closing levels Friday at $1.3649 and Y92.70
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3640, having corrected off US NFP react
highs $1.3711. The boost from US employment report came as market reacted more
to the upgraded back revisions. Euro-dollar edged to an early high of $1.3660 in
Asia before turning lower, the move down seen on euro-yen reversing away from
its highs as this rate failed again to take out Y127.00, and dollar-yen meeting
stiff resistance ahead of Y93.00. Euro-dollar eased through minor support at
$1.3630, extending lows to $1.3619 during the Asian afternoon, edging back
toward $1.3630 into the European open. Offers said to remain in place at the
overnight high at $1.3660, with more toward $1.3700, extending to Friday's high
at $1.3711. Support $1.3620, more into $1.3610 with reports of stops below, a
break to expose $1.3600. Below the figure and Asian traders have noted system
stops in place through $1.3595/75. Political concerns in Spain and Italy may
bruise the current euro bullish tone but the recent underlying positive remains
in place. ECB meeting Thursday in focus, though most see no change in rates,
with the press confernce providing the main interest on suggestions Draghi could
change tone toward dovish from recent hawkish rhetoric.
CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5693, just off traded lows at $1.5690. Rate had
seen a sharp sell off Friday, the move driven by a resurgent euro-sterling, the
cross pressured up to stg0.8711 as the euro was boosted post US NFP in a risk
appetite rally, while sterling remained an outsider to risk benefits. Cable
remained under pressure into early Asia, extending lows to $1.5683 before
recovering, the underlying bearish tone remaining in place as rate settled
between $1.5695/10 through to the European open. Euro-sterling recovered from
its NY close at stg0.8688 to stg0.8704 in early Asia before it turned lower, the
rate settling between stg0.8674/84 through the Asian afternoon and into Europe.
UK construction PMI provides the early domestic data interest (0930GMT) though
activity in the euro likely to be the main driver. Focus thios week on the BOE
MPC meeting Thursday, though most expect no change in rates nor QE, though an
increase in the latter not ruled out in later meetings this year. Of more
interest will be new BOE Governor Carney's appearance before the TSC Thursday to
gauge direction he will take the Bank. Cable support $1.5685/80, $1.5650.
Resistance $1.5710/20.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y92.77 after rate had been driven to extended
highs of Y92.97. Barrier interest at Y93.00 became the early interest into Asia
with demand taking the rate to a recovery high of Y92.91 before it ran into
strong sell interest. Traders reported 'black-box' supply (some linking this
interest to sales of 10-yr UST's) from above Y92.70 which provided added weight
as the rate squeezed down to Y92.50. However, buyers were quick to take
advantage of the dip, the demand edging the rate back to Y92.80 before recovery
stalled. Rate remained buoyed above Y92.60 through to the European open.
Euro-yen saw similar moves, the rate having pulled up just shy of Y127.00 Friday
(Y126.97) before closing the session back at Y126.66, having recovered off a
pullback low of Y126.31. Rate recovered to Y126.86 in early Asia before it
tracked dollar-yen's pullback to Y126.06. Recovery efforts were capped at
Y126.50, though rate remained buoyed above Y126.10 through to the European open.
Offers in dollar-yen remain in place into Y93.00 barrier interest, with exporter
offers noted from Y93.15. Offers ahead of Y127.00 barriers provide the next main
upside hurdle.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: The Nikkei 225 Index ends up 0.62% at 11,260.35.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Monday, extending
their slim gains posted during the previous trading day. Spot gold ended
Friday's session up $3.80 cents at $1667.45/oz after prices failed to
break convincingly in either direction after the release of Friday's US
non-farm payrolls that showed a rise of 157,000 in January, with job
gains in the previous two months revised up by 127,000. Spot gold prices
have turned modestly higher during the latter half of this morning's
Asian session, after printing an initial intra-day low of $1665.35/oz.
Since then, spot gold has edged back to highs of $1673.30/oz in what has
been a quiet session so far, and prices now trade at $1670.30/oz, up
$2.85 on the session. Limited flow activity has been seen this morning,
with some sell interest seen working above around $1675/oz, with higher
resistance marked at $1692/oz. Medium bids are noted below at $1663/oz.
OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading lower Monday, giving up the
gains that were posted during the previous trading day. March WTI
futures ended Monday's session 28 cents higher at $97.77 a barrel, after
trading in a $96.51 to $98.15 range. The front month contract had posted
a three-and-a-half month high of $98.24 last Wednesday. WTI prices have
been held in a fairly narrow trading range so far this morning, edging
lower amid thin volume tracking the progress of FX pair euro-dollar.
March WTI futures have pared back from initial intra-day highs of $97.76
to lows of $97.44 and now trade at $97.48 a barrel, down 29 cents on the
session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX March natural gas prices are trading marginally
higher Monday after posting some losses during the previous trading day.
March natural gas prices ended Friday's session down 3.8 cents, or 1.1%,
at $3.301 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a
$3.278 to $3.387 range. The front month contract ended up shedding 4.2%
on the week. Prices became pressured by a slightly milder outlook
scheduled for later this week. Natural gas prices have been tied to a
narrow trading range so far this morning, edging back from a high of
$3.322 to lows of $3.308 and the market remains on the lower end of the
range, currently trading $3.309 per mln Btu, modestly higher from
Friday's close of $3.301 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Netherlands, France, Greece, Belgium and ESM. Supply is estimated
to be around E17.4bln, similar to E17.989bln issued last week. First up on
Monday will be Netherlands who will tap 3-month Apr 29, 2013 DTC for between
E2.0-E3.0bln and issue new 6-month Jul 31, 2013 for between E1.0-E2.0bln. In the
afternoon France issue new 3-month May 9 BTF for between E3.6-E4.0bln, re-open
6-month Jul 11 BTF for between E1.5-E1.9bln and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014
BTF for between E1.1-E1.5bln. On Tuesday, Greece will issue new 26-week Aug 9
T-bill for E625mln. Belgium will re-open 3-month May 16 T-bill and 6-month Jul
18 t-bill for indicative target range of E2.8-E3.3bln. Finally the ESM will
issue new 3-month May 9 Bill for up to E2.0bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions
for this week, we have, France E8.298bln, EFSF E1.927bln and Greece E2.2bln,
giving potential negative net cash flow of E5.0bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the Eurozone so far this week is
scheduled from Austria, Belgium, Germany, France and Spain and is expected to
pick up to around E17.1bln vs E16.13bln sold last week. Austria comes to the
market first with tap of its benchmark 7-year 1.95% June 2019 RAGB and also
10-year 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB issues for combined size of E1.1bln on Tuesday. On
Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 5-year benchmark 0.50% Feb 2018 Bobl for up to
E4.0bln. On Thursday, France taps 2.50% Oct 2020 OAT, re-opens 10-year benchmark
2.25% Oct 2022 OAT and taps 15-year benchmark 2.75% Oct 2027 for between E7.0bln
and E8.0bln. Also on Thursday, Spain tap off-the-run 2.75% Mar 2015 Bono, tap
5-year benchmark 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono and tap off-the-run 6.00% Jan 2029
Obligacion, indicative target size to be announced on Monday with expectations
for up to E4.5bln. On Friday, Belgium is due to hold an ORI auction. In terms of
reinvestment flows, there are no redemptions due this week with moderate coupon
payments from Finland E0.02bln and Greece E0.01bln. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA), re-opens
E2.0-E3.0bln of a 3-month Apr 29, DTC and issue E1.0-E2.0bln new 6-month Jul 31
DTC on Monday. This will be the last tap of Apr 29 DTC and with E4.42bln
currently outstanding demand could be high. Current 3-month DTC mid-yield is
seen trading above zero between 0.0% and 0.02% and was last sold on Jan 21, were
E2.31bln was allotted at an average yield of -0.011% and covered 2.05 times. As
for the new 6-month Jul 31 DTC, this will be not be tapped again until April,
and coupled with the low target range demand is estimated to be very high. Grey
market is indicating a mid-yield of XXX%, while at the last 6-month DTC auction
also back on Jan 21 E1.08bln was allotted at average yield of -0.007% and
covered 3.57 times. With no Dutch T-bill redemption this week, cash flow could
be negative to the tune of E5.0bln. Results due to be announced around 1040GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) will issue
new 3-month May 9, 2013 BTF for between E3.6-E4.0bln, re-open 6-month Jul 11,
2013 BTF for between E1.5-E1.9bln, and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014 BTF for
between E1.1-E1.5bln on Monday. The front end of the BTF curve has remained
relatively steady, while mid to long end yields are marginally lower since last
week auction. 3-month BTF mid-yield is seen around 0.025%, 6-month mid-yield is
around 0.035%, while 12-month BTF is seen around 0.165%. There will be a BTF
redemption this week of E8.298bln, leaving net cash flow negative to the tune of
E898mln, which is not expected to have an impact on demand. For comparison on
Jan 28, the AFT sold E3.995bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of 0.011% with
cover of 2.19 times, E1.494bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.51% with
cover of 2.63 times, and E1.594bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.186%
with cover of 2.63 times. Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
wiec poważnie potrzebuje porady gdzie zamknąć stratę już czy poczekać że koreta wystąpi wcześniej przed wystąpieniem ale do jakiego poziomu!!!
