DayTrading: Poniedziałek 3.12.2012

[Nowy123]

Kanguro milo ale BUY i SELL stop ustawiony pod dane byl poszedł SELL STOP zamykniety s bo jesli beda lepsze dane z Chin to odbitka

[Peter_FX]

Kanguro milo ale BUY i SELL stop ustawiony pod dane byl poszedł SELL STOP zamykniety s bo jesli beda lepsze dane z Chin to odbitka

Te dane z Chin to takie średnio istotne, zresztą jak większość super wiarygodnych danych z Chin.

[Nowy123]

Kanguro milo ale BUY i SELL stop ustawiony pod dane byl poszedł SELL STOP zamykniety s bo jesli beda lepsze dane z Chin to odbitka

Te dane z Chin to takie średnio istotne, zresztą jak większość super wiarygodnych danych z Chin.

02:45 CNY Wskaźnik HSBC Manufacturing PMI w Chinach 50.40 powinno bujnac

[Peter_FX]

Kanguro milo ale BUY i SELL stop ustawiony pod dane byl poszedł SELL STOP zamykniety s bo jesli beda lepsze dane z Chin to odbitka

Te dane z Chin to takie średnio istotne, zresztą jak większość super wiarygodnych danych z Chin.

02:45 CNY Wskaźnik HSBC Manufacturing PMI w Chinach 50.40 powinno bujnac

Bujnęło ale nie tym co trzeba, Ozzi jak stał tak stoi

poważnie to wątpię aby dane z Chin miały większy wpływ na euro, stało co się miało stać i tyle.

[Nowy123]

Te dane z Chin to takie średnio istotne, zresztą jak większość super wiarygodnych danych z Chin.[/quote]
02:45 CNY Wskaźnik HSBC Manufacturing PMI w Chinach 50.40 powinno bujnac[/quote]

Bujnęło ale nie tym co trzeba, Ozzi jak stał tak stoi

poważnie to wątpię aby dane z Chin miały większy wpływ na euro, stało co się miało stać i tyle.[/quote]

mialy mialy tak jak i na Kangura ktory odbil po slabej sprzedazy dla tego zamykalem przed danymi chodz duzej roznicy nie bylo ledwo 0,10%

[marekdt]

dla szorcących PLN'a małe fundamenty (złoty raczej się umocni teraz razem z EURO)

http://www.ekonomia24.pl/artykul/705501 ... trzeb.html
chyba będzie wszystko - ok - bez niespodzianek...
http://www.ekonomia24.pl/artykul/706205 ... atkom.html

gold, eur, gbp pln może też CHF wszystko może lecieć do góry dziś...

Jpy może się jeszcze osłabiać przez kilka dni aż do 83.00-83.25 - a tam dostanie młotkiem kontraktami. I pewnie wróci w okolice 81.00...

Jaki R/R - policzcie sobie - _SL poniżej tego ostatniego dołka z H1 - powiedzmy 5.5 pipsa ~82.26:) - TP 83.00

nie wiem tylko czy na EURJPY nie będzie jeszcze lepiej... 109?

USD osłabiać...

[pkubiu]

Witam po stosunkowo udanej nocy
No i wskoczył TP na edku 1.3020 a może być lepiej a ja go już nie dosiadam, chyba sie ze się cofniemy.
za to dosiadłam AUD/USD 12 1,4015 ale widze że ma nadal ochotę na zjazd, a włąsnie kiedy ta informacja o stopach ? Myślicie, że obniżą?

[Michal87]

Informacja o stopach będzie o 4.30 w nocy z poniedziałku na wtorek

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Monday sees the release of the eurozone final manufacturing PMI
datas, with market watchers looking for confirmation of the flash data.
First up is Spanish data at 0813GMT, followed by Italy at 0843GMT,
France at 0848GMT, German at 0853GMT and overall eurozone data at
0858GMT. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure is slated to give
an address at annual financial lunch of the French Chamber of Commerce
in Great Britain, in London.

EFSF/ESM: Moody's Investors Service late Friday downgraded
the long-term issuer rating of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to
Aa1 from Aaa, and is maintaining a negative outlook on the rating. At
the same time, Moody's also downgraded the provisional long-term rating
for the Issuer Rating and debt issuance programme of the European
Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to (P)Aa1 from P(Aaa), and is also
maintaining a negative outlook. The short-term issuer rating of the ESM
remains unchanged at Prime-1, while the provisional short-term rating of
the EFSF remains at (P)Prime-1. Whilst the downwgrade of the EFSF was
not a surprise after Moody's recent downgrade of France to Aa1 from Aaa,
the ESM downgrade was seen as surprise by some as it was seen as immune,
due to its robust capital structure -- E80bln paid-in capital and
E620bln callable capital along with its preferred creditor status.

ITALY: Pier Luigi Bersani, head of the centre-left Democratic party, was
on course for a sizeable victory in a Italy's primary run-off to lead
Italys centre-left in general elections early next year. With polls
suggesting the left is on course for election victory, this puts him in
poll position to replace Mario Monti as PM, the paper says.

SPAIN: Spnish PM Rajoy says a promise to cut the Spain's deficit to 6.3%
this year will be "very complicated" to meet, the Independent reports
The paper picks up on a weekend interview with the Spanish media, in
which Rajoy added that he had not considered a Spanish rescue
"necessary". However, he added he would not hesitate turning to the ECB.



UK: UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbrone, just days ahead of
his key Autumn Statement, has conceded it is taking longer than expected
to bring down the nation's debts. In an interview with the BBC's Andrew
Marr show Osborne said it would be a disaster to move away from his
chosen path of deficit and debt reduction but acknowledged that things
were running behind schedule.

UK PRESS: Another US tradition crosses the pond, the Guardian reports,
as retailers look to today as their own version of "Cyber Monday", with
internet sales seen up on year ago numbers.

UK PRESS: HSBC is planning to sell four sub-prime loan portfolios worth a total
of $2.7 bln over the next year, marking the first time HSBC has sold any of its
holding of sub-prime debt since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September
2008 and is intended to kick off the sale of the $44.2 bln of such toxic debt
still held by the bank, The Telegraph reported. HSBC was one of the first banks
to recognize the problems in the US sub-prime housing market. The bank's warning
in February 2007 of the large losses it said it expected to take on the
low-quality mortgages precipitated the credit crunch.

UK PRESS: Most euro business should be done inside the euro area and not in
London, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer said, arguing that this is the
price the U.K. should pay for staying outside of the single currency union.
Noyer told the Financial Times that euro business should also be done onshore to
allow euro zone members to control financial business. "Most of the euro
business should be done inside the euro area. It's linked to the capacity of the
central bank to provide liquidity and ensure oversight of its own currency,"
Noyer was cited saying.



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2986 having pivoted $1.3000
through the day, within a range of $1.3029-1.2968, with month end
dollar demand providing a counter against further upside gains. Rate
drifted off to $1.2973 into early Asia Monday, touching a low of $1.2973
before picking up demand that lifted it back to $1.3000. Demand for
euro-Aussie was then cited for the move through $1.3000, with upside
momentum gaining pace as rate pushed through $1.3025/30, the move
triggering stops, with more going off above $1.3040, that took rate
on to $1.3048. Option barrier interest at $1.3050 said to be drawing
protective selling ahead, a break to open a move on toward $1.3070. Risk
remains in favour, aided by an easing in Eurozone periphery bond yields,
with release of supportive Chinese PMI data aiding the move. Australian
retail sales data provided a slight dampener, while Friday's
downgrading of EFSF and ESM basically brushed aside. Euro-dollar drifted
back off to $1.3027 but seen supported into early Europe. Eurozone final
PMI data in focus, along with further European talks on Greece.

EURO-DOLLAR: Picking up more talk confirming barrier interest at
$1.3050, the linked offers ahead of this level cited for capping the
overnight rally at $1.3048. Rate currently trades back around
$1.3025/30. Stops are noted above $1.3050 but traders note that further
sell interest is seen placed from this level through to $1.3070, which
could make upside progress difficult.


CABLE: Rate closed in NY Friday at $1.6013, able to finish the week
back above $1.6000 after a brief dip to $1.5988, with early trade into
Asia Monday seeing rate ease off to $1.6005 as it tracked euro-dollar
moves. Rate recovered, upside momentum boosted as euro-dollar spiked up
to $1.3048 and stops were triggered above $1.6035, the move taking cable
on to $1.6048 ($1.6045 76.4% $1.6063-1.5988) before meeting decent
resistance from offers placed toward $1.6050. Rate drifted off to
$1.6027 ($1.6026 50% $1.6005-48) where it has found some support ahead of
the European open. A break of $1.6020 to open a deeper pullback toward
$1.6005/00 ahead of $1.5988. Resistance remains into $1.6050, a break to
expose Friday's high at $1.6063, with offers noted to $1.6065. Above
here and rate can extend toward $1.6080 ahead of $1.6100 (barrier?).
Risk remains in favour, aided by an easing in Eurozone periphery yields
as well as weekend China PMI data coming in on the stronger side. UK mfg
PMI due this morning at 0928GMT, with BOE FLS quarterly lending data at
0930GMT. Chancellor Osborne Autumn Statement Wednesday key this week.


YEN: Euro-yen was a key mover through the Asian session with rate
pushing up from an early posted low at Y106.77. Triggered stops through
Y107.30 provided the added momentum to take it up to session highs of
Y107.53 before rally strength faded. Rate eased off to Y107.18 ahead of
the European open, currently trading around Y107.24. Dollar-yen pushed
to an early high in Asia of Y82.51 on the euro-yen rally but move was
met by decent supply from a north Asian sovereign. The pullback to
Y82.33 ran into Japanese importer demand which bounced rate back to
Y82.47. Fresh sales emerged with rate pressed down to lows of Y82.26
ahead of the European open, currently trading around Y82.28. Main offers
in this pair seen at Y82.90 through to Y83.00. Bids Y82.20, Y81.90.
Options traders highlight a large Y82.00 strike option set to roll off
at today's NY cut. Tuesday has larger option maturities, with Y81.00 and
Y82.50 the stand out interest.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Monday after
posting some losses Friday, ending the month around 0.3% lower marking
its second consecutive month of decline, although gold continues to draw
some support from safe-haven interest as the US fiscal cliff uncertainty
continues to drag on. Spot gold ended Friday's session lower at $1714.80
a troy ounce. This morning, gold prices have moderateley advanced to the
upside after China's PMI reading for November came in at a better than
expected 50.5 from a reading of 49.5 in October, showing a modest
improvement in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Spot gold has picked up
from an intra-day low of $1714.81/oz to a high of $1720.45/oz with
overall risk sentiment showing a moderate uptick so far during Asian
hours this morning. Spot gold now trades at $1719.20/oz, up $4.4 on the
session.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading marginally higher Monday,
extending their gains from Friday. January WTI futures ended Friday's
session 84 cents higher at $88.91 a barrel after trading in a range
between $87.47 and $88.99. WTI prices have stabilised this morning after
the release of the final version of the China manufacturing PMI index
showed an improvement, advancing to a reading of 50.5 from 49.5 in
October, its first move above 50 in more than a year. January WTI is now
currently trading $88.98 a barrel, up 7 cents on the session, with
prices so far tied to a fairly narrow range, holding at an intra-day low
of $88.76 to a session high of $89.30 a barrel.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Monday, recovering some of the losses posted during the
previous session. January natural gas futures ended Friday's session
lower at $3.561 per mln British thermal units (Btu) after trading in a
range between $3.546 and $3.679 per mln Btu. A surprise rise in
inventory build from last Thursday continued to weigh on prices during
the majority of Friday's session, as the January contract closed near
the lower levels of the day's range. This morning, January natural gas
prices have bounced back higher after initially printing an intra-day
low of $3.526 per mln Btu, advancing to a session high of $3.643 per mln
Btu and the market currently trades at $3.614 per mln Btu.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2960, $1.2985, $1.3100, $1.3145/50
* Dollar-yen; Y81.50, Y82.00(large), Y82.10, Y82.25, Y82.60
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8030
* Aussie; $1.0435, $1.0450 $1.0475


DOLLAR: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro short position but added to
their net yen short position as per November 27, according to U.S. CFTC data,
released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section,
excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro short of -66,693
contracts as of November 27, compared to the net short of -91,400 contracts seen
as per November 20. Speculative accounts had a net yen short of -79,466
contracts as per November 27, versus the prior week's net yen short of -51,389
contracts, which at the time was the largest net yen short position since April
24. The euro closed near $1.2944 and dollar-yen at Y82.13 November 27, which
compared to closing levels Friday at $1.2989 and Y82.45.


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week
are planned from Germany, Netherlands, France, Belgium, and EFSF. Supply
is estimated to be around E14.5bln, lower than E21.1bln issued last
week. First up on Monday will be Germany with plans to issue around
E3.0bln new 6-month Jun 12, 2013 Bubill. Netherlands will re-open
E1.0-E2.0bln of a 3-month Feb 28, 2013 DTC and re-open E1.0-E2.0bln of a
6-month May 31, 2013 DTC. In the afternoon France will tap E3.4-E3.8bln
of a 3-month Feb 28, 2013 BTF, tap E1.2-E1.6bln of a 6-month May 16,
2013 BTF and tap E1.0-E1.4bln 12-month Nov 14, 2013 BTF. On Tuesday
Belgium plan to re-open 3-month Mar 14, 2013 T-bill and tap 6-month May
16, 2013 T-bill for an indicative target range of E0.8-E1.2bln. Finally
EFSF will issue up to E1.5bln in a new 3-month Mar 7, 2013 Bill. In
terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have France E8.282bln,
Germany E4.0bln and EFSF E1.997bln, giving potential negative net cash
flow of E200mln.

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is
planning to issue E3.0bln new 6-month Bubill maturing Jun 12, 2013 on
Monday. This will be the last 6-month Bubill auction for 2012 which
could lead to strong demand as investors continue to look for a safe
haven to invest cash in the short term, especially before year-end. In
the grey market, mid-yield on the new 6-month Bubill is seen trading
around -0.01%. For comparison at the last 6-month T-bill auction back on
Nov 12, the treasury allotted E3.52bln at an average yield of -0.0116%,
cover of 2.0 times, and with E480mln or 12% retained for secondary
market operations. At last months sale, the 6-month Eonia rate was
around 0.056%, therefore giving a spread of -6.76bps, currently 6-month
Eonia is seen around 0.049% level. There will is a E4.0bln Bubill
redemption next week, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of
E1.0bln. Results due to be announced shortly after 1030GMT.

[pkubiu]

Kto jest w stanie wytłumaczyć tak mocne spadki na indeksie Shanghai Composite od tygodnia spada po parę procent Dziennie jakaś rzeź, dame makro dobre nowy wódz a giełda u nich w dół