DayTrading: Poniedziałek 25.02.2012

[Brenach91]

oj cos mi sie zdaje, ze luke zamkna dopiero za kilka dni

No nie byłbym tego taki pewny, może i dziś zamkną jak to lupka była;)

[lukasz2021]

eurousd na L dziś?

[Nowy123]

czekamy na chwilowa reakcje pod Wybory w Wloszech i reakcje na PMI CHinach powinna byc lecz pozniej jak ochlona

[lukasz2021]

dzieki nowy123

[yar68]

News alert- earthquake reported in tokyo
Written by Mike Paterson
February 25, 2013 at 07:28 GMT

just on the wires

initial reports of 6.2 strength

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: Monday's European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, with the release of the
Spanish January PPI data.
There is a slew of central bank speak Monday, starting with comments from
Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel, speaking on the Eurozone crisis, in
Hannover, Germany at 1000GMT.
Back in Europe, also at 1530GMT, the ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann
is set to speak on fiscal and monetary policy in Paris.

EUROPE: Nicos Anastasiades won the run-off for the Cypriot election with 57.5%
of the votes eKathimerini reports, saying he will now work flat out for a
bailout.

ITALY: Italians continue to vote Monday in what the FT calls a "close election,"
with the size of the protest vote likely to be the deciding influence.

GREECE: Around 50% of the Greek population continue to "evade tax", eKathimerini
reports Monday.



UK: There is only a limited UK data calendar, with the release of the January
BBA Lending Data. At 1545GMT, UK Chancellor George Osborne is set to appear
before the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards, in what could be a
rocky appearance following the UK's sovereign downgrade on Friday. The Banking
Standards Commission could be given an open goal to quiz the Chancellor if
Moody's follows its normal course of events and downgrades the UK banking sector
this morning.

UK: To recap, Moody's downgraded UK's credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa
late Friday (just before the market close) and kept the outlook at stable. The
key interrelated drivers of the downgrade were: The continuing weakness in the
UK's medium-term growth outlook, with a period of sluggish growth which Moody's
now expects will extend into the second half of the decade, the challenges that
subdued medium-term growth prospects pose to the government's fiscal
consolidation programme, which will now extend well into the next parliament and
as a consequence of the UK's high and rising debt burden, a deterioration in
the shock-absorption capacity of the government's balance sheet, which is
unlikely to reverse before 2016.

UK: Nomura analysts expect aussie (along with CAD, SEK and NOK) to be natural
beneficiaries of UK's loss of the Aaa status from Moody's. They note that of the
flexible exchange rate AAA countries, inflows to buy govt debt have been most
important for the U.K., funding 155% of the cumulative current account deficit
over the past 5 years and while Moody's downgrade doesn't mean these inflows
will stop, the relative important of them as a funding source for the current
account is a concern. They also point out that SNB uses average of 3 rating, so
any follow-up move from S&P and Fitch (which is very likely) will move their GBP
holding to an internal AA rating.

UK PRESS: UK mininsters should not be allowed to see the release of official
statistics early, the House of Commons Public Administration Committee says, teh
Independent reports.

UK PRESS: UK Business Secretary Vince Cable has played both the Moody's rating
downgrade as "background noise," the Independent reports. According to the
paper, Cable told the BBC the cut was "largely symbolic."

UK PRESS: The FT says Chancellor George Osborne is facing dual pressure from
coalition partners in the wake of the Moody'S downgrade. The paper says he is
under pressure from Conservatives to cut spending further and cut taxes to boost
the economy, whilst LibDems are calling for further infrastructure spending on
the housing stock, the paper says.

UK PRESS: UK tax-payer owned clearer RBS is set to sell US banking arm Citizens,
the Independent reports, as the bank succumbs to regulator pressure.



US: The US data calendar kicks off at 1430GMT, with the release of the MNI Capital
Goods Index for the Feb 22 week.
Also at 1530GMT, the Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is released. Then, at
1530GMT, the MNI Retail Trade Index for the Feb 23 week will cross the wires.
Back in the US, at 1900GMT, the US Feb Treasury Allotments numbers will be
released.
Lastly, at midnight, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhard is
to give a speech on the economic outlook in Knoxville, Tenn.

FED: Boston Fed's Rosengren speaking at BIS forum in Seoul, does not comment on
mon policy or econ outlook. Says improvements in the capital ratios of large
U.S. banks since the 2008 financial crisis "are quite striking," and has placed
them in a better position to finance the recovery going forward. Argues that
measures passed to guard against a future meltdown - such as Dodd-Frank - have
"significantly increased the quantity and quality of capital expected to be held
by banks." He also stresses that the new supervisory tools now available to
regulators, such as a capital surcharge on banks considered systemically
important, should not be used in isolation but instead incorporated into "a
multi-pronged approach."



DOLLAR: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro long position and added to
their net yen short position as of February 19, according to U.S. CFTC data,
released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section,
excluding options -- showed speculators had a net euro long position of +19,103
contracts as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro long of +24,181
contracts. Speculative accounts had a net yen short of -65,891 contracts as per
February 19, versus the prior week's net yen short of -61,306 contracts and the
yen short of -94,401 contracts from December 11, which was the largest net yen
short position since July 2007. The euro closed near $1.3386 and dollar-yen at
Y93.56 February 19, which compared to closing levels Friday at $1.3186 and
Y93.43.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3194 after recovering off a session low
of $1.31445, opening Wellington Mon at $1.3177 before the recovery extended in
early dealing to $1.3235 before this opening enthusiasm wilted and rate began to
drift lower. Rate eased to $1.3185 before settling around $1.3200 into the Tokyo
open. Rate eased again, extending the pullback to $1.3182 before fresh demand
emerged to edge it back to the $1.3200 area ahead of Europe. Asian traders have
reported demand in place from $1.3175, the interest extending to $1.3150 with
stops placed on a break of $1.3145. Offers seen positioned above the overnight
high of $1.3235, with main interest noted between $1.3240/50. Strong Germany Ifo
Friday, following on from a strong ZEW earlier in the week seen providing some
euro positives, along with the euro seen as non participant in the 'currency
wars', but the Italian elections (currently in process) and Friday's reported
lower than expected LTRO2 repayment seen providing potential negative headwinds.
Moody's overnight commented that the EZ growth forecast reduction is credit
negative could also add to negative weight. A fairly light data calendar for
today, Italian bond auction at 1000GMT to provide the morning interest.


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at session lows of $1.5162 after rate had from around
$1.5250 as news that Moody's had cut the UK's sovereign rating from AAA to AA1
(stable outlook) hit the wires. Negative press reports over the weekend,
especially directed at Chancellor Osborne, saw the pound under pressure into
opening Asian trade (Wellington). Cable was marked down to $1.5135 at the open
with sales in a thin market extending the move to a low of $1.5073.
Euro-sterling spiked up to stg0.8701 into Friday's close with this rate pushed
up through recent highs of stg0.8764 to stg0.8775 before Tokyo opened. The
pullback in the cross to stg0.8711 allowed cable to edge back up to $1.5137. A
brief dip to $1.5116 attracted fresh demand that took rate to extended highs of
$1.5139 ahead of Europe. The Asian open has left a gap in the charts to $1.5162
which will be looked at for closure. Moody's expected to downgrade UK banks,
possibly as soon as this morning, which may provide another negative knock, but
suggestions are that sterling should recoup part of the overnight losses, though
the underlying trend remains sterling negative. The Italian election to be
watched, a Monti coalition win could add more negativity via the cross.

CABLE: Extends recovery to $1.5146 in early Europe, off opening lows of $1.5073
in Wellington, with rate holding firm. Technical traders still look for the gap
to Friday's close at $1.5162 to be filled.


YEN: Dollar-yen and yen pairs gapped higher into the Asian open Monday as
traders reacted to weekend press reports that suggested that current ADB Kuroda
was seen as a front runner for the BOJ Governorship, with Iwata seen as one of
the deputies. These two men are seen as favouring aggressive monetary easing,
though their appointments are seen needing support in the Japan upper house,
where the ruling LDP does not hold a majority. Dollar-yen closed in NY at
Y93.42, gapping at the Asia open to Y93.89 before extending its rise to Y94.77,
after breaking recently posted highs at Y94.46 (Feb11). Euro-yen closed NY at
Y123.22, gapped to Y123.90 before it too extended gains to Y125.37. Both rallies
met stiff resistance from retail and Japanese exporters which countered the
extended reaction, with dollar-yen easing to Y93.97, euro-yen to Y123.90 as the
weight of these sales managed to overcome reported macro demand. Traders suggest
that yen is expected to remain soft but also note that any approach to Y95.00
expected to meet strong option related selling linked to large barrier interest
here. Tech traders also note that yen pairs have gaps to fill from the NY
close/Asia open.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Friday, as dollar-yen
traded higher ahead of the new BOJ head appointment. The Nikkei 225 was higher
by 276.58 points, or 2.43%, at 111662.52. Into the close, the broader-based
TOPIX was higher by 17.11 points at 98.59. Market breadth indicators saw 200
issue higher, 16 lower and 9 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 2.032 bn
shares.


GOLD: Production in China, the world's second largest market for the precious
metal, surged nearly 12% y/y in 2012 despite a slowdown in the domestic economy,
state media reports say. Chinese gold output rose to 403.1 tonnes in 2012, up
11.66% from 2011, the official Xinhua news agency reports citing data from the
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The World Gold Council, has put
China's consumer demand for gold at 776.1 tonnes in 2012, flat from 2011.


COMMODITIES: Port Hedland and Dampier ports through which the majority of the
world's iron ore is shipped, is closed ahead of tropical cyclone Rusty, The Age
reports. The impact is expected to be seen in spot iron ore prices (down $2.60
to $153.60/tonne on Friday) and ANZ commodity analysts expect further gains this
week. According to them, forecasters have warned cyclone could develop into
category 3 and a weaker category 1 system which passed the Pilbara in January
had forced the shutdown of all three iron ore export terminals in the region,
contributing to a 9% drop in exports for the month and a 5.2% rise in spot
prices.



OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3400, $1.3450
* Dollar-yen; Y93.00(large, Y93.50(large), 94.00(large)
* Euro-yen; Y125.00
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8600
* Aussie; $1.0250, $1.0300



EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Germany, France and Italy. Supply is estimated to be around
E19.0bln, up from E16.389bln issued last week. First up on Monday will be
Germany who plan issue new 12-month Feb 26, 2014 Bubill for up to E3.0bln. In
the afternoon France plan to tap 3-month May 25 BTF for between E3.4-E3.8bln,
re-open 6-month Aug 8 BTF for between E1.5-E1.9bln and tap 12-month Feb 6, 2014
BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln. On Tuesday, Italy plan to issue new 6-month Aug 30
BOT for E8.75bln. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have, France
E7.795bln, Germany E3.0bln, Italy E10.183bln and Netherlands E4.86bln, giving
potential positive net cash flow of E6.8bln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign bond issuance this week is expected to
fall to around E10.75bln vs E26.71bln sold this week. Italy is the lone issuer
next week after Belgium and the Netherlands cancelled its regular bond auctions.
On Monday, Italy taps its zero coupon Dec 2014 CTZ issue for between
E2.0bln-E3.0bln and also linker issues 2.10% 2021 & 3.10% 2026 BTPei for
combined size of between E500mln-E1.25bln indicative size. On Wednesday, Italy
conducts its regular month-end medium-long auction, where tap of the benchmark
5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for between E1.75bln-E2.5bln and launch of a new
10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for between E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. In terms
of reinvestment flows, where are no redemption payments due next week, with
coupons from Italy E6.1bln, Greece E1.2bln, Germany E0.9bln, France E0.8bln --
leaves net cash flow negative to the tune of E1.8bln vs -E25.8bln last week. For
full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar &
MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento del Tesoro taps its zero coupon Dec
2014 CTZ issue on Monday for between E2.0bln-E3.0bln and also linker issues
2.10% 2021 BTPei & 3.10% 2026 BTPei for combined size of between
E500mln-E1.25bln indicative size. The auction comes at a crucial time ahead of
the general elections, but this uncertainty has already seen some concession
into the auction, and likely to persist into the month-end medium-long auction,
where the Tesoro taps its benchmark 5-year 3.50% Nov 2017 BTP for between
E1.75bln-E2.5bln and launches a new 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for between
E3.0bln-E4.0bln indicative size. As well as concession, the E6.1bln worth of
coupon payments from Italy are seen underpinning demand. For comparison
purposes, the Dec 2014 CTZ was first sold on Jan 28 for E4.0bln at average yield
of 1.43% and covered 1.45 times. The 2.10% 2021 BTPei was last sold on Oct 26
and the 3.10% 2026 BTPei was last sold on Nov 27 -- and therefore not
comparable. Auction results are due around 1015GMT.

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is planning to issue
up to E3.0bln new 12-month Bubill maturing Feb 26, 2014 on Monday. Current
12-month Bubill yield has fallen since last months auction, as the ECB has
reiterated its accommodative stance with full allotment mode of liquidity
provision, at its February governing council meeting. For comparison at the last
12-month T-bill auction back on Jan 28, the treasury allotted E2.07bln at an
average yield of 0.1319%, cover of 1.8 times, and with E930mln or 31% retained
for secondary market operations. At last months sale, the 12-month Eonia rate
was around 0.243%, therefore giving a spread of -11.1bps, currently 12-month
Eonia is seen around 0.12% level. There will be a Bubill redemption of E3.0bln
this week, leaving net cash flow flat. Results due to be announced shortly after
1030GMT

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) plan to
re-open 3-month May 23, 2013 BTF for between E3.4-E3.8bln, re-open 6-month Aug
8, 2013 BTF for between E1.5-E1.9bln, and tap 12-month Feb 6, 2014 BTF for
between E1.4-E1.8bln on Monday. This will more than likely be the last tap of
both 3-month and 12-month BTFs, leading to high demand, while the AFT has
increased the target range of Aug 8 BTF following very high demand seen at last
Monday's auction. BTF yield curve has continued to flatten over the course of
last week, with 3-month mid-yield seen at 1bps, 6-month mid-yield at 4.0bps and
12-month mid-yield at 11bps. There will be a BTF redemption this week of
E7.795bln, leaving net cash flow positive to the tune of E295mln. For comparison
on Feb 18, the AFT sold E3.595bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of 0.015% with
cover of 2.29 times, E1.798bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.050% with
cover of 3.66 times, and E1.795bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.131%
with cover of 2.78 times. Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.


ITALY: Timeline for Italian elections
- legal black-out period for polls started Feb 9
- Feb 24/25 Italy general election
- Feb 25 Voting expected to be completed by 1400GMT
- Feb 25 First exit poll shortly after 1500GMT
- Feb 26 Final results expected by mid-morning
- Mar 18 Election of presidents in Chamber & Senate (within 2-3 weeks of vote)
- May 18 Napolitano's 7-year mandate expires

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few days:
- Feb 24/25 Italy general election
- Feb 25 Italy CTZ/linker auctions for up to E4.25bln
- Feb 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Feb 27 Italy BTP auctions
- Feb 27 ECB 3-year LTRO repayment (E1.744bln 1st LTRO & E61.09bln 2nd LTRO)
- Feb 27 EMU economic/business climate index
- Feb 27 ECB Draghi speaks in Munich
- Feb 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Feb 28 German Feb unemployment data
- Feb 28 Spain Q4 final GDP data
- Feb 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.183bln
- Mar 01 Eurozone Jan unemployment data
- Mar 01 ECB announces repayment of LTRO allotments
- Mar 04 Eurogroup meeting
- Mar 05 ECOFIN meeting

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- Feb 25 Freddie Mac Reference Note announcement
- Feb 25 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- Feb 25 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 05/15/2020-02/15/2023 $2.75-$3.50bn
- Feb 25 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- Feb 25 UST auctions $35BN 2y at 1300ET
- Feb 25 Feb Treasury Auction Allotments at 1500ET
- Feb 25 US Treasury Sec Wolin at Chicago Council on Global Affairs at 1600ET
- Feb 25 Fed Lockhart (non-voter) in Knoxville, TN at 1900ET
- Feb 26 Q4 FDIC bank earnings at 1000ET
- Feb 26 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 26 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- Feb 26 UST Auctions $35BN 5y at 1300ET
- Feb 26 Fed Chair Bernanke gives FOMC's semi-ann report to SBC in Washington
- Feb 26 Bernanke gives prepared testimony to SBC w/ Q&A at 1000ET

[Nowy123]

Japonia MinFin Aso mówi nominacja Kuroda to właściwy wybór, mówi, że ma doświadczenie w finansach.

moze zrobia podwojny szczyt na E J i domkna luke zobaczymy

-- Dodano: pn 25-02-2013, 9:38 --

News alert- earthquake reported in tokyo
Written by Mike Paterson
February 25, 2013 at 07:28 GMT

just on the wires

initial reports of 6.2 strength

to troche malo by co kolwiek zmienic

[Adam]

czyli sądzisz że nie bedzie korekty dość głebokiej na jenie tylko dalsze wzroty? Oo hardcore:D sadzisz ze do ilu max niby dojda? Sroczka siedzi na jenach, a juz z tego co wiem dobrze zarobiła na wzrostach wiec moze koło się obrócić wszystko szybicej spada niz rosnie psychika:D

Poczytaj wypowiedzi polityków japońskich z przełomu roku.Dla Japonii osłabienie jena to priorytet do dziś nie podniesli sie z kryzysu po zalaniu elektrowni do tego jeszcze kryzys światowy . W styczniu mówili że chcą osłabiać jena do końca 2013r. Nie pozwala im na to G7 wojna walutowa nabiera tempa. Dalsze osłabianie jena jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

[Brenach91]

czyli sądzisz że nie bedzie korekty dość głebokiej na jenie tylko dalsze wzroty? Oo hardcore:D sadzisz ze do ilu max niby dojda? Sroczka siedzi na jenach, a juz z tego co wiem dobrze zarobiła na wzrostach wiec moze koło się obrócić wszystko szybicej spada niz rosnie psychika:D

Poczytaj wypowiedzi polityków japońskich z przełomu roku.Dla Japonii osłabienie jena to priorytet do dziś nie podniesli sie z kryzysu po zalaniu elektrowni do tego jeszcze kryzys światowy . W styczniu mówili że chcą osłabiać jena do końca 2013r. Nie pozwala im na to G7 wojna walutowa nabiera tempa. Dalsze osłabianie jena jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

Ale, nie w takim tempie, myślisz że inne banki inwestycyjne na to pozwola, musi być korekta w ciągu 3 mc jen wzrósł o 17% jeśli się nie mylę...

[Nowy123]

czyli sądzisz że nie bedzie korekty dość głebokiej na jenie tylko dalsze wzroty? Oo hardcore:D sadzisz ze do ilu max niby dojda? Sroczka siedzi na jenach, a juz z tego co wiem dobrze zarobiła na wzrostach wiec moze koło się obrócić wszystko szybicej spada niz rosnie psychika:D

Poczytaj wypowiedzi polityków japońskich z przełomu roku.Dla Japonii osłabienie jena to priorytet do dziś nie podniesli sie z kryzysu po zalaniu elektrowni do tego jeszcze kryzys światowy . W styczniu mówili że chcą osłabiać jena do końca 2013r. Nie pozwala im na to G7 wojna walutowa nabiera tempa. Dalsze osłabianie jena jest bardzo prawdopodobne.

Ale, nie w takim tempie, myślisz że inne banki inwestycyjne na to pozwola, musi być korekta w ciągu 3 mc jen wzrósł o 17% jeśli się nie mylę...

przeciesz korekta trwa jak nrazie U J plaska w boczniaku e J wieksze ruchy 127 70 na 122 26

a ten co go chca niby wybrac to podobno drugi BENRK z FEDU wielki drukarz liczylem w nocy ze chodz cofna na 123 50 65 grrr