1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Chrisdot pisze:Polecam się przyjrzeć parze EUR/CHF. Ładny wzrostowy trend + aktualnie odbijamy się od oporu. Założenie skromnego longa może się opłacić.
zeby tylko nie interpretowali chf jako jedynej save heaven bo skoro jen sie wypiala ?
jak uzyskać parytet na edku -swieca z 03.12 - tu podjada pod 1,053 i wtedy rura w jeden dzien 500 piepek
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EU: In Europe, the Eurogroup is set to meet, with the formal agreement to OK the
latest Greek disbursement on the agenda.
European data gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of Germany's December
PPI numbers.
Further EU data is expected at 1000GMT, with the release of the third quarter
2012 government debt statistics.
GERMANY: Germany's leader Angela Merkel suffered a poll blow Sunday, as her CDU
partners and coalition Liberal partners were beaten by the centre-left in Lower
Saxony elections.
GREECE: Greece's international creditors have agreed a six-month moratorium on
any new austerity measures. eKathimerini says, while also demanding Greece
sticks to current agreements. EKathimerini says the move is to allow the Greek
government time to implement agreed policies.
GERMAN PRESS: A commentary by Der Spiegel says the outcome of the election in
Lower Saxony this weekend leaves Angela Merkel with a battle more brutal than
imagined. The battle for the chancellorship in Germany this September has taken
on new shapes with the Social Democrats winning over another previously
Christian Democratic state. For the parliamentary elections, this outcome means
nothing though, Der Spiegel says - there is only one trend which that there is
no trend. Anything is possible still, the paper analysed.
UK: The UK data calendar gets underway at 0930GMT, with the release of the Bank of
Englanf January Trends in Lending and Capital Issuance data, along with the
December CML Mortgage Lending numbers.
UK PRESS: City firms face a skills shortage, the Times reports, citing a study
by PwC saying graduates are choosing other careers and many 40-to-50 year olds
are looking to retire early.
UK PRESS: Twice as many city workers expect to receive no bonus this year
compared to 12 months ago, a survey for recruitment consultants Astbury Marsden
say, the Independent reports.
UK PRESS: The snow disruption in the UK over the last week has increased the
chances of the UK entering a double-dip recession in Q1, the FT reports, citing
data from the Ernst & Young Item Club
UK PRESS: Car makers Ford and BMW have warned a UK exit from the EU would have
devastating effects for the country's economy, the Telegraph reports.
US: US markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday, which will
also double up as President Obama's public inauguration for his second term.
Obama was officially sworn in at a private White House ceremony on Sunday, in
order to meet the Constitution's January 20 deadline.
However, he is set to outline his program for his second term in front of a
crowd of around 250,000 in Washington, down significantly on the 2 million who
attended his initial 2009 swearing in.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3320 after rate had seen a pressured
corrective pullback to $1.3280, recovering to $1.3332 before drifting off into
the close. This Corrective easing continued into early Asia before meeting
decent demand placed into $1.3300, the rate finding an early base at $1.3304
before edging back to $1.3331 where it again met resistance above the $1.3330
level. Rate settled back between $1.3316/28 into early Asian afternoon trade
before coming under late sell pressure which eased it back to $1.3308. The rate
was seen trading around $1.3316 into early Europe. Germany PPI at 0700GMT to
provide the early interest, along with comment on the Germany Merkel lower
Saxony election loss over the weekend in an otherwise data light day, and along
with the US closed for Martin Luther King Day exp[ected to make for fairly
subdued trading. Bids remain into $1.3300, a break to open a retest of Friday
lows at $1.3280 ahead of stronger interest around recent lows of $1.3257. Stops
are reported sub $1.3255. Resistance $1.3330/35 with stops above. Further offers
$1.3350/60 with more stops on break.
CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5864, just off traded lows of $1.5853. A lot of
traders were looking for a close Friday below $1.5910 (200-dma, today at
$1./5909) to open potential for a challenge on Nov lows at $1.5829. With this in
mind cable came under pressure in pre Tokyo trade, but rate was only able to
extend its corrective pullback lows to $1.5838 before willing buyers emerged to
cushion the dip and take rate back to settle between $1.5862/74 through the
Asian afternoon, trading around $1.5871 into Europe. Sterling's recent negative
undertone remains in place with focus this week turning to Friday's release of
Q4 GDP data with several commentators noting the chance that the UK could slip
into a triple dip recession. Apart from the recent release of poor UK data, the
market looking for clarification on the UK government's relationship with the EU
going forward (Friday's Cameron speech on this subject was postponed due to the
terrorist situation in Algeria). Cable support seen at $1.5838 to $1.5829, stops
placed below $1.5820. Resistance $1.5880/85. Euro-sterling made a show above
stg0.84 (stg0.8407) overnight, but offers encountered here provided cable with
some buoyancy through Asia.
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday around Y90.02 with rate picking up fresh
demand interest into early Asian trade Monday which took rate to an early high
of Y90.25. However, this early rise was greeted by reported US investment house
sales, suggested to be linked to interest rate product structures. This selling
eased rate below Y90.00 with Japanese life company sales prompted on the move
below Y89.85. Further stops were triggered through Y89.60/50 before rate based
at Y89.43 and managed to edge back to Y89.80. Rate then settled into a Y89.50/70
range ahead of the European open. Euro-yen closed Friday around Y120.00, opening
Asia around Y119.80 before it edged higher in early trade to Y120.24. This rate
turned lower, as it tracked dollar-yen's easing, dropping to Y119.08. Rate
recovered to Y119.62 before it steped its way back down to Y119.12. Rate was
trading backa round Y119.35 into early Europe. Focus in yen seen on the BOJ
two-day meeting (which began today) with most expecting the BOJ to set a 2.0%
inflation target, though some speculation that they will hold off setting a
specific time frame for this.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's Nikkei 225 ended the session lower, close to the
day's lows, as the rallying yen weighed. The Nikkei was last down 165.56 points,
or 1.52%, at 10747.74.
JAPAN STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 Index ends down 1.52% at 10,747.74.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in positive territory Monday after
posting some marginal losses during the previous trading day. Spot gold
ended Friday's session $3.45 lower at $1684.10/oz after prices corrected
back from highs of $1696.28/oz, after firmer Chinese growth data and
reports of progress over the U.S. debt ceiling. Spot gold prices have
edged their way back higher during Asian traded hours this morning,
underpinned by expectations for aggressive monetary easing from the Bank
of Japan, who are conducting a two-day policy meeting ending on Tuesday.
Gold prices have edged higher from initial lows of $1685.40/oz to
intra-day highs of $1691.50/oz, with some light physical buying from
Asia also lending a hand to support prices. Metals dealers report
limited activity so far this morning, with US markets closed today for
the Martin Luther King holiday. Spot gold now trades at $1690.10/oz, up
$6 on the session.
OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading lower Monday after posting some
narrow gains during Friday's session. March WTI futures Friday's session
10 cents higher at $96.04 a barrel after trading in a $95.36 to $96.13
range. Crude prices have turned lower this morning after an unexpected
drop in U.S. consumer sentiment for the second straight month in
January, raising demand concerns. A report, published on Friday, showed
that US consumer sentiment deteriorated for a second straight month to
its lowest level in over a year in January, with many consumers citing
fallout from the recent fiscal debate in Washington. March WTI futures
have gapped lower this morning, slipping from intra-day highs of $95.85
to lows of $95.52 a barrel. US markets are closed today for the Martin
Luther King holiday. March WTI futures remain near the lower end of
their trading range, currently trading $95.57 a barrel, down 47 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading higher
Monday, extending their gains seen during the previous trading day.
February natural gas futures ended Friday's session up 7.2 cents, or
2.1%, at $3.566 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after
advancing late on to a six-week high of $3.578 per mln Btu. The front
month contract ended last week up 7.2%, its biggest weekly gain in two
months. Natural gas prices continue to be underpinned by cold weather
forecasts for the next ten days or so, which should stir demand for
heating. February natural gas futures have extended higher this morning,
advancing from lows of $3.566 to an intra-day high of $3.607 per mln Btu
a few moments ago and now trade at $3.604 per mln Btu, up from Friday's
close of $3.566 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week slows down
sharply to E3.4bln vs E25.17bln last week. However, there is continued talk of
more syndicated deals in the pipeline, with recent chatter that Portugal is
likely to come to the market with a new 5-year benchmark deal before end of Feb
and Spain mulling a 10-year bond issue. Also heard are 10-year syndicated deals
from Austria and Finland. Slovakia kicks off supply on Monday with taps of the
4.625% 2017 SLOVGB & 4.35% 2025 SLOVGB issues -- for expected size of up to
E400mln -- Ardal said estimated value of reasonable bids is E225mln. On Tuesday,
the Netherlands conducts its off-the-run DSL sale of 1.00% Jan 2014 DSL and
3.75% Jan 2042 DSL for between E1.5bn-E2.5bln. Also on Tuesday, Germany conducts
its linker auction of 0.10% Apr 2023 Bundei for up to E1.0bln. Elsewhere,
reinvestment flows are moderate with redemption from Slovakia E0.26bln and
coupon payments from Austria E0.1bln and Italy E0.1bln -- leaving net cash flow
negative to the tune of E2.9bln vs -E3.9bln last week. For full details of
forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net
Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Netherlands, France, Spain, and ESM. Supply is estimated to be
around E18.0bln, lower than E20.551bln issued last week. First up on Monday will
be the Netherlands with plans to re-open 3-month Apr 29 DTC for between E2.0bln
and E3.0bln, and re-open 6-month Jun 28 DTC for between E1.0bln and E2.0bln. In
the afternoon France issue new 3-month Apr 25 BTF for E4.0-E4.4bln, re-open of a
6-month Jun 13 BTF for between E1.2-E1.6bln and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014
BTF for between E1.2-E1.6bln. On Tuesday, Spain will tap a 3-month Apr 19 Letra
and tap a 6-month Jul 19 Letra, with issuance size announced on Monday. Finally
ESM plan to issue new 6-month bill, for up to E2.0bln. In terms of T-bill
redemptions for this week, we have, France E6.462bln, Germany E3.0bln, Ireland
0.5bln and EFSF E1.488bln, giving potential negative net cash flow of E6.05bln.
DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA), re-opens
E2.0-E3.0bln of a 3-month Apr 29, DTC and re-open E1.0-E2.0bln of a 6-month Jun
28 DTC on Monday. This will be the first of two taps of Apr 29 DTC and with only
E2.11bln currently outstanding demand could be high. Current 3-month DTC
mid-yield is seen trading between 0.0% and 0.02% and was last sold on Jan 7,
were E2.83bln was allotted at an average yield of -0.014% and covered 1.53
times. As for the 6-month Jun 28 DTC, this will not be tapped again until
mid-March and with E3.29bln already issued, demand is expected to be low.
Mid-yield is seen around 0.02% and 0.03%, and at the last 6-month DTC auction
back on Dec 10 E1.07bln was alloted at average yield of -0.04%. With no Dutch
T-bill redemption this week, cash flow could be negative to the tune of E5.0bln. Results due to be announced around 1040GMT.
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) will issue a
new 3-month Apr 25, 2013 BTF for between E4.0-E4.4bln, re-open a 6-month Jun 13,
2013 BTF for between E1.2-E1.6bln, and re-open a 12-month Jan 9, 2014 BTF for
between E1.2-E1.6bln on Monday. 3-Month BTF mid-yield has remained relatively
steady at around zero percent despite the recent sell-off in euribor, while the
6-month mid-yield has risen slightly further this week to around 0.05%, and the
12-month BTF mid-yield has risen by around 5bps to 0.105%. There will be a BTF
redemption this week of E6.462bln, leaving net cash flow negative to the tune of
E1.138bln, which could dampen demand a little as market continues to sell-off in
the front end. For comparison on Jan 14, the AFT sold E3.598bln 3-month BTF at
an average yield of -0.002% with cover of 2.53 times, E1.402bln 6-month BTF at
an average yield of 0.017% with cover of 3.36 times, and E2.0bln 12-month BTF at
an average yield of 0.057% with cover of 2.73 times. Results due to be announced
around 1355GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for this week:
- Jan 21 Eurogroup meeting
- Jan 21 Italy FinMin Grilli speaks at EU Parliament
- Jan 21 German Merkel,France Hollande public discussion with students,Berlin
- Jan 21 ECB Weidmann speaks at annual Deutsche Boerse reception, Frankfurt
- Jan 21 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
- Jan 22 ECOFIN meeting
- Jan 22 Spain sells 3-/6-month T-bills
- Jan 22 ESM sells new 6-month bill for up to E2.0bln
- Jan 22 German Jan ZEW business sentiment survey
- Jan 22 German Merkel, France Hollande joint press conference in Berlin
- Jan 22 Irish FinMin Noonan at European Parliament
- Jan 22 ECB President Draghi keynote speech at IHK reception, Frankfurt
- Jan 23/27 World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos
- Jan 23 IMF publishes world economic outlook update
- Jan 25 ECB announces 3-year LTRO payback
US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- Jan 21 US Holiday: Martin Luther King Birthday, US Pres Inauguration
- Jan 21/23 US House of Reps to meet
- Jan 21/25 US Senate to meet (tent)
- Jan 22 U.S. House Ways & Means Committee hearing on debt limit at 13:30 ET
- Jan 22 Comments due: US Tsy FRN proposal (design details, terms/conditions)
- Jan 22 UST announces 4-week auction
- Jan 22 UST 3-month and 6-month bill auctions
- Jan 23 UST 4-week bill auction
- Jan 23/27 World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos
- Jan 23 MNI Chi Rpt (Chi PMI) seasonal factor revisions
- Jan 23 FHLB Global announcement
- Jan 24 10-yr TIPS auction
- Jan 25 US Treasury Geithner officially leaves office (COB?)
- Jan 25 US Treasury Dep Sec Wolin becomes acting secretary until Lew installed
- TBD Confirmation hearing,committee vote,Senate confirm Lew as UST Secrt
Ostatnio zmieniony 21 sty 2013, 08:42 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
bo skoro jen sie wypiala ?
