DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Dyskusje na temat aktualnej sesji: komentarze, analizy, opinie.

Prognoza EURUSD na dzisiaj

Czas głosowania minął 18 lut 2013, 22:40

Wzrost
28
47%
Bez zmian
11
19%
Spadek
20
34%
 
Liczba głosów: 59

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pr7emo
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: pr7emo »

Kuczyński na Bankierze mówił że dwa tygodnie przed wyborami mają jakiś zakaz publikowania sondaży, szukając istotności tego wydarzenia natknąłem się na artykuły http://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/italy-elections-2013
https://t.me/pump_upp

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Adam
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Adam »

mvmaniek pisze:o 15.30 Draghi bedzie coś mówil. Można sie przygotować.
Raczej o 9,30 http://www.forexfactory.com/
„chcący szuka sposobu, nie chcący szuka powodu"
Dla kogoś, kto nie wie, do jakiego portu zmierza, każdy wiatr jest niepomyślny
- Seneka

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niemiaszek
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

Hello


EUROPE: The European calendar gets underway at 0900GMT, with the release of the
the EMU December Current account data. Also at 0900GMT, ECB Gov Council member
Ewald Nowotny is set to speak, in Vienna. At 1000GMT, German Bundesbank Board
member Andreas Dombret is scheduled to speakon financial stability, in Hamburg.
Later, at 1100GMT, the German Bundesbank is slated to publish its latest monthly
report. Monday's main set piece comes at 1430GMT, when ECB President Mario
Draghi appears for his quarterly hearing before the Economic and Monetary
Affairs Committee of European Parliament, in Brussels. Later, at 1630GMT, Draghi
speaks as ESRB Chair before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
Also at
1630GMT, German German Chancellor Angela Merkel will give a speech at the
Chamber of Industry and Commerce Rheinhessen, in Mainz.

GERMANY: The FT notes trouble in German Chancellor Merklel's coalition over the
"Tobin Tax" issue, as the junior party, the Low tax Free Democrats, want changes
to protest savers and investors from the costs.


INDUSTRY NEWS: The FT says the EU is close to imposing strict controls on the
amount of bonuses banks can pay to traders, with talk of a 1:1 ratio of
salary/bonus being mooted.


UK PRESS: UK households are saving less, as the cost of living rises at the
fastest pace since September 2011, the FT says.

UK PRESS: The latest Harris Poll for the FT shows that only 33% of people in the
UK would vote to stay in the EU if offered a referendum today.

UK PRESS: Ahead of the arrival of new BOE Governor Mark Carney in June, the UK
Treasury has set up a department to study whether or not there should be any
amendment to the Bank's remit, the Times says.



US: The US is closed to enjoy the Presidents' Day break :!:



DOLLAR: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro long position and their net
yen short position as of February 12, according to U.S. CTFC data released
Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding
options -- showed speculators had a net euro long position of +24,181 contracts
as of Tuesday, compared to last week's net euro long of +37,952 contracts. Last
week's long was the largest net euro long since July 5, 2011 (+43,194
contracts). Speculative accounts had a net yen short of -61,306 contracts as per
February 12, versus the prior week's net yen short of -68,413 contracts and the
yen short of -94,401 contracts from December 11, which was the largest net yen
short position since July 2007. The euro closed near $1.3452 and dollar-yen at
Y93.51 February 12, which compared to closing levels Friday at $1.3363 and
Y93.53.

DOLLAR: The big break between America's reliance on foreign energy supplies and
its drag on the dollar appears to be happening now, says UBS strategist Syed
Mansoon Mohi-uddin, adding, he expects the dollar to gain more support from
higher U.S. oil production over the next quarter. Mohi-uddin forecasts the
greenback to rebound to last year's high of $1.2000 vs the euro by end-2013 on
Fed slowing and ultimately ending its third round of QE but says the dollar is
"also likely to increasingly benefit from America's shale energy revolution" as
this will markedly reduce the country's trade deficit.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.3360 after rate had recovered off lows at
$1.3307 on IMF Lagarde comments supporting the recent euro strengthening/yen
weakening moves, the reactive demand taking the rate to highs of $1.3376 before
drifting off into the close. Rate marked highs at $1.3365 into opening Asian
trade Monday before squeezing lower as it reacted to strong demand for
dollar-yen following the weekend G20 Communique (failed to criticise Japan
directly for recent currency devaluation). The move lower in euro-dollar was
cushioned in part by demand for euro-yen, the move up in the cross eventually
allowing euro-dollar to recover $1.3345 into Europe. G20 effect expected to be
seen into early Europe, but with US and Canada holidays today likely that
markets will become subdued into the afternoon. EZ current account data at
0900GMT could provide some interest during the morning. For the week, Fed
Minutes Wednesday seen as the next key release, with EZ flash PMI's due Thursday
and LTRO2 repayments for Friday to influence. Italian elections Feb24-25 also of
interest. Euro-dollar offers $1.3365/80 ahead of $1.3400 (stops above). Support
$1.3325/20, stops below.


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.5518 after rate had seen extended lows of
$1.5462 before recovering to $1.5543 as sterling hitched a ride higher following
yen's sell off following G20 Communique draft release showing Japan not directly
criticized for devaluing its currency. Cable drifted off those react highs but
found support above $1.5510 into the close. Cable continued to drift lower into
early Asia before if got shoved down to $1.5472, as euro-sterling spiked up to
stg0.8625. Cable edged back to settle between $1.5475/95 through the balance of
the session, while the cross settled between stg0.8605/15, though this rate was
seen picking up fresh demand into early Europe. Despite some recovery efforts
the recent underlying negative tone toward sterling remains in place, especially
vs the dollar, with some support vs the euro able at times to provide to
buoyancy. A light UK data calendar for today with moves in sterling to come from
outside influences. BOE Minutes and UK jobless claims Wednesday the nxt domestic
interest of note, with borrowing data due Thursday. Comments from BOE Weale at
the weekend would tend to suggest BOE support for a weaker pound, though post
G7/G20 statements this cannot be declared.


YEN: Following the G20 Communique release, without a direct criticism of Japan
recent activity to weaken its currency, the Japanese currency came under fresh
pressure into Asia Monday. Dollar-yen, which had been pressured back up to
Y93.84 on reaction to leaked the G20 draft, closed the week at Y93.50, with Asia
able to step this rate up to an overnight high of Y94.22, settling back between
Y93.85/94.00 ahead of Europe. A similar move for euro-yen, though with
euro-dollar under pressure, the recovery was less impressive. However, the rate
closed NY at Y124.96, off session highs of Y125.28, with the extended move up in
Asia touching Y125.69 before it settled back between Y125.20/50 into Europe.
Attention now turns toward the appointment of the next BOJ Governor, the three
main contenders, Kuroda, Muto and Iwata having perceived views. An announcement
is expected ahead of Japan Abe's meeting with US Obama (Feb20-24). Technical
traders still have recent highs around Y94.40 in view, with Y95.70 also
mentioned, though they do admit that upside momentum has slowed.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are higher Monday, boosted by the
weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 234.04 points, or 2.09%, at 11407.87.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 19.58 points at 961.99.
Market breadth indicators saw 210 issue higher, 10 lower and 5 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 3.1 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3500(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y92.00, Y92.50, Y92.60, Y92.90, Y93.25, Y94.00
* Cable; $1.5600
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2320
* Aussie; $1.0200, $1.0300, $1.0385


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this week are
planned from Netherlands, France, Spain, ESM, Portugal and Ireland. Supply is
estimated to be around E17.5bln, down from E29.355bln issued last week. First up
on Monday will be Netherlands who plan to tap 3-month May 31, 2013 DTC for
between E1.5-E2.5bln and issue new 6-month Aug 30, 2013 DTC for between
E1.0-E2.0bln. In the afternoon France issue new 3-month May 25 BTF for between
E3.2-E3.6bln, issue new 6-month Aug 8 BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln and tap
12-month Feb 6, 2014 BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln. On Tuesday, Spain will
re-open 3-month May 17 Letra and re-open 9-month Nov 22 Letra with indicative
size to be announced on Monday. ESM plan to issue new 6-month Aug 22 Bill for up
to E2.0bln. On Wednesday Portugal re-open 3-month May 17 T-bill and issue new
12-month Feb 21, 2014 T-bill for indicative target range of E1.25-E1.5bln.
Finally Ireland are scheduled to issue new 3-month May 9 T-bill for E500mln, to
be confirmed on Tuesday. In terms of T-bill redemptions for this week, we have,
France E6.391bln, Portugal E2.205bln, EFSF E1.5bln and Ireland E0.5bln, giving
potential negative net cash flow of E6.9bln.

SLOVAKIA AUCTION PREVIEW: Slovakia kicks off supply in the eurozone on Monday
with tap of the floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 and 4.625% Jan 2017 SLOVGB219 bonds.
Ardal, the Slovakian debt and Liquidity management agency has estimated
reasonable value of bids for the 2016 and 2017 bonds at E150mln and E200mln,
respectively, with only E686.6mln and E1.051bn available. The auctions are
expected to be well received given the small sizes and in line with historic
results. The floater Nov 2016 SLOVGB218 was last sold on Nov 12, 2012 for
E94.2mln at an average price of 97.8091 and covered 2.44 times. The 4.625% Jan
2017 SLOVGB219 was last sold on Jan 21 for E223.0mln at an average yield of
1.1121% and covered 1.25 times. Auction results are due around 0915GMT.

DUTCH T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA), re-opens
3-month May 31, DTC for between E1.5-E2.5bln, and issue new 6-month Aug 30 DTC
for between E1.0-E2.0bln on Monday. This will be the first of two taps of May 31
DTC and with only E2.28bln currently outstanding demand could be high. Current
3-month DTC mid-yield is seen trading between 0.0% and 0.02% and was last sold
on Feb 4, were E2.76bln was allotted at an average yield of zero percent and
covered 1.64 times. As for the new 6-month Aug 30 DTC, this will be not be
tapped again until May, and coupled with the low target range demand is expected
to be very high. At the last 6-month DTC auction also back on Feb 4, E1.03bln
was allotted at average yield of 0.021% and covered 3.17 times. With no Dutch
T-bill redemption this week, cash flow could be negative to the tune of E4.5bln.
Results due to be announced around 1040GMT.

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT) plan to issue
new 3-month May 23, 2013 BTF for between E3.2-E3.6bln, issue new 6-month Aug 8,
2013 BTF for between E1.4-E1.8bln, and tap 12-month Feb 6, 2014 BTF for between
E1.4-E1.8bln on Monday. Since last Monday's auction the BTF curve has flattened
slightly, with 3-month and 6-month BTF little changed, while 12-month BTF yield
has fallen around 2bps. There will be a BTF redemption this week of E6.391bln,
leaving net cash flow negative to the tune of E609mln. For comparison on Feb 11,
the AFT sold E3.995bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of 0.012% with cover of
2.18 times, E1.701bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of 0.048% with cover of
3.23 times, and E1.894bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.145% with cover
of 3.62 times. Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few days:
- Feb 18 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
- Feb 18 ECB Draghi quarterly hearing at European Parliament
- Feb 19 ESM sells new 6-month bills for up to E2.0bln
- Feb 19 German Feb ZEW business sentiment survey
- Feb 19 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Feb 20 Greek floater 2013 redemption for E443mln
- Feb 20 Portuguese debt chief Rato speaks in Lisbon
- Feb 20 Portugal sells 3-/12-month T-bills for E1.25bln-E1.5bln
- Feb 21 European flash Feb PMI manufacturing/services survey
- Feb 21 Spain sells Obligaciones bonds
- Feb 21 European flash PMI survey
- Feb 22 Germany Feb IFO business survey
- Feb 22 ECB announces payback total amount for 2nd LTRO
- Feb 22 Portugal T-bill redemption for E2.205bln
- Feb 22 European Commission publishes updated forecasts

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few weeks:
- Feb 18 US Presidents' Day holiday
- Feb 18-22 Pres Day recess (Congress out, return is close to Mar 1 sequester
deadline)
- Feb 19 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 02/15/2036-02/15/2043 $1.25-$1.75bn
- Feb 19 UST announces 4 week at 1100ET
- Feb 19 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- Feb 19 UST auctions $35B 64d (Apr 25) CMB at 1300ET
- Feb 20 FHLB Global announcement
- Feb 20 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 05/15/2020-02/15/2023 $2.75 - $3.50bn
- Feb 20 UST auctions 4 week at 1130ET
- Feb 20 FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1400ET
- Feb 21 Fed Bullard (voter) at NYU Stern Business School at 1230ET
- Feb 21 Fed Outright Tsy Coupon Purch 11/30/2018-02/15/2020 $3.00 - $3.75bn
- Feb 21 UST announces 3/6m bills at 1100ET
- Feb 21 UST auctions $9B new 30-yr TIPS at 1300ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

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pakubiu
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: pakubiu »

CZY ktoś jeszcze klęka przy kablu bo ja po ostatnich batach zmieniłam pozycje na S ( klęcząca tylnia )Z TP 1,5330 CZY KTOŚ TEZ IDZIE TYM KIERUNKU?
Wreszcie Ferie więc można grać spokojnie na Foreksie

Blocked
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: Blocked »

Adam pisze:
mvmaniek pisze:o 15.30 Draghi bedzie coś mówil. Można sie przygotować.
Raczej o 9,30 http://www.forexfactory.com/
jest o 15.30. zas ktory Ci pokazuje jest w stanach, zmien ustawienia
Kiedy schodząc na przerwę przegrywasz 0-3 nie możesz wierzyć w cuda. Musisz wierzyć w siebie.
Jerzy Dudek

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cajto
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: cajto »

Do usunięcia

rafmax
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: rafmax »

pakubiu pisze:CZY ktoś jeszcze klęka przy kablu bo ja po ostatnich batach zmieniłam pozycje na S ( klęcząca tylnia )Z TP 1,5330 CZY KTOŚ TEZ IDZIE TYM KIERUNKU?
jak kleczaca tylnia to az sama sie prosisz zeby sie rynek Toba zajał :D

bede sprzedawał jak wroci do:
1,5585
1,5625
1,5665

wyzej mi sie nie chce wymieniac
"Buy the fu*king dip you fu*king idiot" :)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU

mvmaniek
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: mvmaniek »

też widziecie na daily rgr?

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davor5
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: davor5 »

Mon Feb 18 15:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks

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niemiaszek
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Re: DayTrading: Poniedziałek 18.02.2013

Nieprzeczytany post autor: niemiaszek »

http://forex-nawigator.biz/forum/pogadu ... ml#p557195



CABLE: MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.5650 Medium offers on approach
$1.5600/10 Medium offers/$1.5600 option expiry
$1.5585 NY high Weds/Strong offers
$1.5550 Strong offers on approach/Many look to short here
$1.5510 Int.Day high Asia
$1.5472 **Current market rate 0809GMT Monday
$1.5465 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.5472
$1.5462 Fri Feb15 low
$1.5460/50 Strong demand/Option barrier $1.5450/Stops
$1.5400/390 Strong demand
$1.5269 Low Jun 2012
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"

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