DayTrading: Poniedziałek 10.12.2012

[crok.]

wroza dzis w prasie , ze frank umocni sie do 1.1 to ciekawe ile bedzie wynosil wtedy edek

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EU: There is a fairly slow calendar ahead for Monday, as markets get set to
slow into the year-end holiday season.
The data calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the release of the
German October trade balance. That is followed at 0730GMT, with the
release of the French Bank of France survey for November.
Further French data is expected at 0745GMT, with the release of the
October Industrial output numbers.
Italian data is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the October
industrial output and the final third quarter GDP data. At 1100GMT, the
EMU October OECD leading indicator numbers will cross the wires.
Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is scheduled from
Austria, Belgium, Italy, Slovakia and Spain. Sales are expected to
total E9.3bln.
As far as T-bill issuance is concerned, France, Spain, Greece, Belgium,
Slovenia and Italy are all due to come to the market and supply is
estimated to be around E20.0bln.

ITALY: For anyone who missed it, Italian PM Monti told the
President Saturday that he would stand down as soon as the Budget bill
passed on to the statute book, thus paving the way for February
elections.

ITALY: In an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore at the weekend, EC President
Barroso said any elections in Italy "must not question" the economic
reforms of technocrat PM Monti, as the risk of a financial crisis was
ongoing.

ITALY: Silvio Berlusconi's try for a come back has caused much anguish
in Brussels about Italy's dedication to austerity, reports Handelsblatt.
ECB- Directorate member JOrg Asmussen said on Sunday that the highly
indebted state must not meander from the reforms it has agreed to.

ITALY: ESM Head Klaus Regling is worried that Italy may not live up to
its agreed reforms, reports Sueeddeutsche Zeitung. in an interview with
the paper, Regling said "In the past year Italy has started implementing
vital reforms. Markets have honoured this development but since last
week's internal political developments, they have started reacting les
positively".

GREECE: Greece may ask for additional offers in the buyback scheme,
eKathimerini says, as it looks to top up on offers already received. The
website says Greece currently has tenders in the regions of E25 to E27
bn from domestic and offshore bond holders and it is targeting E30 bn.

GREECE: Athens might re-open debt-buyback book for 1-2 days: sources
--Greece buy-back bids over E27 billion, but short of E30 billion target
--Book re-opening would be chance for Greek banks to offer more
--Greek banks so far have offered to sell back E10 billion in bonds
--If buy-back offers exceed target, EFSF could loan Greece more

GERMAN PRESS: Weaker growth for Germany next year is a realistic scenario as
Europe's largest economy feels the effects of the Eurozone debt crisis, ECB
Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen said in excerpts of an interview with the
German daily Bild Zeitung published Sunday. "The forecasts of the Bundesbank are
realistic. The reason for this slow growth in 2013 is weak demand in other
Eurozone states due to the debt crisis," he said. "This shows that Germany is
not an island."

BUNDS: Mar Bunds hit fresh contract high above 146.00.



UK: At 1715GMT, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King is slated to give a
speech to the Economic Club of New York.
With his successor having been chosen King is coming close to his
swansong. One of King's favoured themes at present is the limitations of
monetary policy, as it can't keep bringing forward spending indefinitely
when everyone knows adjustment is needed ahead.

UK PRESS: A license to print money.... It seems the Bank of England is
all set to grant one, as it asks for tenders for the contract to print
UK banknotes - a 14-year contract worth around stg 1 billion to the
winner, the Telegraph reports.

UK PRESS: In an interview with Sunday;s Observer, Business Secretary
Vince Cabke said there is "clearly a risk" the UK could slip back into
recession and then face a Japanese style lost decade. However, Cable
said the most likely outcome was "we keep bumping along the bottom."

UK PRESS: The FT says assets in fixed income hedge funds are set to
overtake those in equity strategy funds for the first time ever.

UK PRESS: London-based global investment banks are set to move up to
3,000 jobs from the City to other UK regional financial areas, the FT
reports, in a move of "near-shoring." Additionally, a further boost
could be seen for the regional cities as the same banks repatriate jobs
from overseas to Leeds, Bristol, Manchester etc, the paper says.



US/CANADA: Canadian data is expected from 1315GMT, with the release of the November
Housing starts data.
The US calendar gets underway at 1400GMT, when the December Employment
Trends Index is released.
1430GMT, the MNI Capital Goods Index for the December 7 week are
released, followed at 1530GMT with the release of the MNI Retail Trade
Index for the week ending Dec 8.

US: President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner met Sunday at the White House
about the fiscal cliff impasse, with the two leaders saying that they are not
going to disclose what they discussed. "We're not going to read out details of
the conversation but the lines of communication remain open," Obama and Boehner
said in identical statements issued separately Sunday.

US PRESS: President Obama and House leader Boehner met Sunday for the
first time in over a month as parties look to reach a resolution on the
"fiscal cliff" issue before Christmas. No details of the meeting
emerged, although spokspersons for both parties said lines of
communication remained open.




CFTC/DOLLAR: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro short position but added to
their net yen short position as per December 4, according to U.S. CFTC, released
Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial, futures-only section, excluding
options -- showed speculators had a net euro short of -32,795 contracts as of
Tuesday, compared to last week's net short of -66,693 contracts. Spec accounts
had a net yen short of -90,326 contracts as per Dec 4, vs last week's net yen
short of -79,466 contracts. This was the largest net yen short position since
July 2007. The record net yen short of -188,077 contracts was seen June 26,
2007. The euro closed near $1.3093 and dollar-yen at Y81.89 Dec 4, which
compared to closing levels Friday at $1.2927 and Y82.45


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2927 after rate had recovered off
post US jobs data lows of $1.2876 to $1.2951 on source reports on the
break down of voting on the ECB board. Rate gapped down to $1.2905 into
the Asian open as it was marked down on weekend reports that Italian PM
Monti would resign once his Budget had been passed. The rate pressed
down to $1.2881 before meeting demand, linked to euro-yen buying, that
cushioned the early move and allowed rate to recover to $1.2916 (closing
the chart gap). Rate drifted off to $1.2890, recovering back to
$1.2905/10 into Europe. Political developments will hold Europe's focus
this morning, but events during the week will eventually take
prominence. US FOMC Wednesday the highlight of the week with
expectations the Fed will replace Operation Twist with outright Treasury
purchases ($45bln per month). Market will also watch for clues for
economic conditions where the Fed may begin to hike rates. US retail
sales, CPI Thu/Fri respectively, flash Eurozone PMI's Friday provide
data interest; ECOFIN and EU Council meetings also of interest.

EURO-DOLLAR: Traders report demand back in place between $1.2880/70,
with one tech traders suggesting that a close below this area could
prompt system accounts to enter shorts. Next support seen into $1.2850
(Asian demand noted Friday) with further interest tucked in close behind
at $1.2835/25, with some looking toward the 200-dma at $1.2785.
Resistance seen into $1.2920 ahead of $1.2950.

MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3000/10 Medium offers
$1.2990/95 Medium offers
$1.2970/80 Medium offers
$1.2950/55 Medium offers/Broken support
$1.2920 Medium offers on approach
$1.2916 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2895 ***Current mkt rate 0727GMT Monday
$1.2880 Int.Day low Asia/$1.2876 Friday post NFP low
$1.2875 Stops
$1.2865 Medium demand
$1.2850 Strong demand (Asian interest noted on Friday)
$1.2838 Tech 61.8% $1.2661-1.3127
$1.2835/25 Medium demand
$1.2810/00 Medium demand
$1.2785 Tech 200-dma


CABLE: Closed in NY Friday at $1.6039 after recovering from post US jobs
data lows at $1.6002 to $1.6044. Rate was pressed back to $1.6023 into
early Asian trade, as rate tracked early pressure on euro-dollar, with
recovery efforts capped at $1.6043 as move met offers placed between
$1.6040/50. Rate drifted lower through the balance of the overnight
session, touching a low of $1.6017, currently around $1.6026.
Euro-sterling saw lows Friday of stg0.8045, the move lower in the cross
providing cable with buoyancy. Euro-sterling in Asia extended lows to
stg0.8033 in opening trade, as the euro came under pressure from weekend
reports of Italian PM Monti to offer resignation after the budget
passes. Rate recovered through the session to stg0.8057 before it
settled between stg0.8045/55 ahead of the european open. Sterling
retains a safe haven status which so far has allowed it to shrug off a
series of weak data. Cable demand remains into $1.6000, a break to open
a deeper move toward $1.5980 ahead of $1.5960/50. Resistance $1.6040/50
ahead of $1.6080 and $1.6100. Direction to be led by euro-dollar.

MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6131 Tuesday Dec4 high
$1.6120 Strong offers
$1.6100 Medium offers
$1.6075/85 Medium offers
$1.6060/65 Medium offers/$1.6061 recovery high Friday
$1.6050 Medium offers to $1.6050
$1.6043 Int.Day high Asia
$1.6022 **Current market rate 0733GMT Monday
$1.6017 Int.Day low Asia
$1.6000 Strong demand on approach/$1.6002 Friday low post NFP
$1.5988 Friday Nov30 low
$1.5980 Strong demand
$1.5965/55 Strong demand
$1.5955/50 Stops
$1.5940-20 Medium demand


YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Friday at Y82.50 after rate had again been
rejected from around Y82.84, on initial reaction to the strong US jobs
data, with rate pressed to lows of Y82.24 ahead of the close. Early
sales into Asia eased rate down to Y82.36 before it bounced back to
Y82.64 with rate then settling around Y82.50 for the balance of the
session. Traders in Asia expect rate to remain within an outside range
of Y82.00/0.8300 with the close touch being Y82.30/80. Euro-yen was
initially pressed lower into Asian trade as the euro came under general
pressure on weekend reports that Italian PM Monti would tender his
resignation following budget getting passed. Rate saw early lows of
Y106.16 before willing buyers emerged to correct it back up to Y106.64.
Another drift off to Y106.20 again found support with rate on the
recovery into Europe, currently trading around Y106.46. Resistance
Y106.80/85, stronger between Y107.00/10. Support remains between
Y106.20/00 with stops below.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's
session mixed. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 6.36 points, or 0.07%, at
9533.73. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
2.88 points at 787.36. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
985.3 n shares, with 88 issues higher, 125 lower and 12 unchanged.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading modestly higher Monday extending
their marginal gains posted during the previous trading day. Spot gold
ended Friday's session up $4.15 at $1704.05/oz, despite a drop in the US
unemployment rate. Market participants in the precious metal are now
looking ahead to this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
meeting, scheduled for December 11-12, with some market expectation that
there could be some additional quantitative easing (QE) towards the end
of the month, which would provide some support for bullion prices. Gold
prices, may however, face some downside risks from political and
macroeconomic news in the eurozone, after Italian Prime Minister Mario
Monti said that he will resign after passing the country's 2013 budget.
Spot gold prices have edged their way higher during Asian traded hours
this morning, picking up from an intra-day low of $1702.25/oz to a fresh
session high of around $1709.50/oz a few moments ago. Spot gold now
trades at $1709/oz, up $4.95 on the session.


OIL: January NYMEX WTI futures are trading higher Monday after posting
some marginal losses during the previous trading day. January WTI
futures ended Friday's session $0.33 lower at $85.93 a barrel after
trading in a $85.77 to $86.92 range, shedding more than 3% on the week
after prices had seen a range of $85.77 to $90.33 for the week. Improved
Chinese data, seen at the weekend, has underpinned oil prices so far
this morning during Asian traded hours. Chinese refinery reached a new
in November, growing 9.1% from a year earlier to 10.2mln barrels a day,
wit industrial production jumping to 10.1%, according to data released
by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing yesterday. January WTI
prices have advanced from intra-day lows of $85.90 to session highs of
$86.45 a barrel this morning and now trade at $86.39 a barrel, up 46
cents on the session.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EST cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2800, $1.2885, $1.2900, $1.3000
* Dollar-yen; Y82.20, Y82.70, Y83.00
* Euro-yen; Y105.95, Y106.75, Y108.25
* Cable; $1.6000
* Dollar-Sek; Sek6.6260
* Aussie; $1.0435, $1.0450, $1.0465, $1.0525
* Dollar-Canada; C$0.9920



EUROZONE ISSUANCE (1): Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance for this
week are planned from France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, Slovenia and
Italy. Supply is estimated to be around E20.0bln, higher than E14.1bln
issued next week. First up on Monday afternoon will be France with
E3.4-E3.8bln issue of a new 3-month Mar 14, 2013 BTF, E0.8-E1.2bln tap
of a 6-month May 16, 2013 BTF and E0.9-E1.3bln tap of a 12-month Nov 14,
2013 BTF. There will be 4 auctions Tuesday, with Spain first up with
plans to tap 12-month Dec 13, 2013 Letra and issue new 18-month Jun 20,
2014 Letra, with indicative amount to be announced on Monday. Greece
will issue E2.125bln new 4-week Jan 11, 2013 T-bill and issue E1.25bln
new 26-week Jun 14, 2013 T-bill. Belgium plan to re-open 3-month Mar 14,
2013 T-bill and issue new 12-month Dec 19, 2013 T-bill for an indicative
target range of E1.0-E1.4bln. Slovenia will issue new 3-month Mar 14,
2013 T-bill for approximately E30mln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE (2): Italy will wrap up issuance on Wednesday
with plans to issue E6.5bln new 12-month Dec 13, 2013 BOT. In terms of
T-bill redemptions for this week, we have Belgium E5.769bln, Spain
E8.927bln, Greece E5.4bln, Slovenia E65mln and Italy E10.7bln, giving
potential positive net cash flow of E11.0bln.

SLOVAKIA AUCTION PREVIEW: Ardal, the Slovakian debt and Liquidity
management agency is due to tap the 4.35% 2025 SLOVGB216 issue Monday.
Ardal has indicated the estimated value of reasonable bids at E50mln vs
E273.7bln available for sale. This is Ardal's final bond auction for
2012, where the Bratislava-based agency has so far sold almost E10.0bln
in both bonds, T-bills and a loan tranche from the EIB for E300mln,
which equates to around 130% of its projected target of E7.6bln. Looking
ahead into next year, Slovakia is planning to issue approximately
E8.3bln of debt in 2013 and launch up at least four new lines of bonds,
says Tomas Kapusta, head of debt management department at Ardal
previously told MNI. The 4.35% 2025 SLOVGB216 was last sold on Oct 15
for E60.9mln at an average yield of 3.5453% and a bid-to-cover ratio of
1.3 times. Auction results are due around 0915GMT.

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT)
will issue E3.1-E3.5bln new 3-month BTF maturing Mar 14, 2013, re-open
E0.8-E1.2bln of a 6-month BTF maturing May 16, 2013, and re-open
E0.9-E1.3bln of a 12-month BTF maturing Nov 14, 2013 on Monday. BTF
yields have fallen in wake of ECB Mario Draghi's comments on interest
rates, with increased speculation ECB will cut the refinancing rate in
Q1 2013. With no BTF redemption next week, net cash flow could be
negative to the tune of E6.0bln, and coupled with the recent reduction
in yields, is see capping demand. For comparison on Dec 3, the AFT sold
E3.796bln 3-month BTF at an average yield of -0.022% with cover of 2.99
times, E1.575bln 6-month BTF at an average yield of -0.008% with cover
of 4.05 times, and E1.396bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.016%
with cover of 3.59 times. Results due to be announced around 1355GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 10 Bank of Portugal releases data on banks
- Dec 11 Spain sells 12-/18-month T-bills
- Dec 11 Germany Dec ZEW survey
- Dec 12 ECOFIN emergency meeting to discuss banking supervision
- Dec 12 Spain requested bank bailout to be disbursed
- Dec 12 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Dec 12 Italy T-bill auction
- Dec 13/14 EU Leaders Summit (to discuss Van Rompuy report)
- Dec 13/14 IMF and ECB hold joint conference on fiscal governance
- Dec 13 Spain bond auction
- Dec 13 ECB to publish November Monthly Bulletin
- Dec 13 Italy mid-month BTP auction
- Dec 14 Greece T-bill redemption for E2.0bln
- Dec 14 Italy T-bill redemption for E10.7bln
- Dec 14 Spain T-bill redemption for E8.927bln

[Tommy_Boss]

Witam,

To jak lecimy na edku do 1.2800 ?

[niemiaszek]

wersja poglądowa AT

10-gru-2012 7:02
MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Eye $1.2840 As Daily & Weekly Studies Slide
RES 4: $1.3172 High Sept 17
RES 3: $1.3127/3130 Reversal High Dec 5, Upper Bollinger Band
RES 2: $1.2991 5-day moving average
RES 1: $1.2949 38.2% Fibonacci of $1.2662 to $1.3127
LATEST PRICE: $1.2893
SUP 1: $1.2840 61.8% Fibonacci of $1.2662 to $1.3127
SUP 2: $1.2809 Jul 24 support line
SUP 3: $1.2785 200-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2749/2772 100-DMA, 76.4% Fibonacci of $1.2662 to $1.3127
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar continues to correct lower, making lower lows
and lower highs as daily studies also slide. Current price action is
struggling to move below the 21-DMA and bears eye the next support level
at $1.2840, the 61.8% Fibonacci of $1.2662 to $1.3127. Weekly tech
studies are looking more bearish now and further support seen at
$1.2809, the Jul 24 supp line. A close below here will enourage bears.


10-gru-2012 7:28
MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Look To Close Above Nov 22 High At Y82.84
RES 4: Y83.30 High 2 Apr
RES 3: Y83.14 Resistance line from 6 Apr, 2011
RES 2: Y82.84/85/94 High Nov 22, 38.2% of Y94.99 to Y75.35, High 4 Apr
RES 1: Y82.68 Nov 22 resistance line
LATEST PRICE: Y82.39
SUP 1: Y82.22 Tenkan Line
SUP 2: Y81.74/76/95 Nov 28 supp line, High 20 Nov, 23.6% of Y79.08-82.84
SUP 3: Y81.40/62 38.2% of Y79.08-82.84, 21-day moving average
SUP 4: Y80.96 Kijun Line
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen remains in the descending triangle, the top still
initial resistance now at Y82.68 and the base forms support around
Y81.74. Daily tech studies turn neutral and we note a golden-cross of
the 55 and 200-DMAs. Initial supp is the Tenkan line at Y82.22, which
the pair tested yesterday but failed to break below. The weekly chart
shows stretched bullish tech studies.


10-gru-2012 7:40
MNI EURO-YEN TECHS: Key Initial Support At Y106.16, The 23.6% Fibonacci
RES 4: Y115.06 200-week moving average
RES 3: Y111.44 High Mar 21
RES 2: Y107.96/108.00 High Dec 5, High Apr 20
RES 1: Y106.62/67/69 Tenkan Line, Weekly Ichimoku Cloud top, 100-week MA
LATEST PRICE: Y106.37
SUP 1: Y106.16 23.6% Fibonacci of Y100.33 to Y107.96
SUP 2: Y105.46 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y105.05 38.2% of Y100.33 to Y107.96
SUP 4: Y104.15 Kijun Line, 50.0% of Y100.33 to Y107.96
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen continues to slide following the bearish engulfing
candle pattern, daily and weekly studies also slide and the 23.6% of
Y100.33 to Y107.96 is key initial support at Y106.16, which last
session's price action failed to break below. Further support seen at
Y105.46, the 21-DMA. Bulls will try and break initial resistance, seen
at Y106.62/Y106.69, the Tenkan line, weekly cloud top and 100-week MA.


10-gru-2012 7:45
MNI CABLE TECHS: Bears Aim To Close Below 38.2% Support Level At $1.6016
RES 4: $1.6218 High 5 Oct
RES 3: $1.6175/78/96 High Nov 1, High Oct 17, 76.4% of $1.6309-1.5829
RES 2: $1.6126/31/43 61.8% of $1.6309-1.5829, High Dec 4, Boll band top
RES 1: $1.6069 5-day moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.6021
SUP 1: $1.6016 38.2% of $1.5829 to $1.6131
SUP 2: $1.5978/80/81 High 22 Nov, 50.0% of $1.5829 to $1.6131, 21-DMA
SUP 3: $1.5944/49/55 61.8% of $1.5829 to $1.6131, 100-DMA, 100-week MA
SUP 4: $1.5900 76.4% of $1.5829 to $1.6131
COMMENTARY: Daily tech studies continue to slide further as Cable also
corrects, but failed to close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, key
initial support at $1.6016. A close below this level will further open
up the downside to bears, our next support level lies around $1.5944 to
$1.5955, these being the 61.8% of $1.5829/1.6131, 100-DMA and 100-week
MA. Initial resistance seen as the 5-DMA at $1.6069.




10-gru-2012 6:50
MNI EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Lower High, Negative Divergence & Trendline Break
RES 4: 2796.6/2807.9 High Jul 22 2011, 76.4% of 3077.2 to 1935.9
RES 3: 2641.2 61.8% Fibonacci of 3077.2 to 1935.9
RES 2: 2634.0 Daily Bollinger top
RES 1: 2616.8/2617.8 Former Nov 16 trendline, High Dec 6
PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2601.37
SUP 1: 2594.0 5-day moving average
SUP 2: 2572.9 23.6% Fibonacci of 2427.3 to 2617.8
SUP 3: 2545.1 38.2% Fibonacci of 2427.3 to 2617.8
SUP 4: 2532.6 21-day moving average
COMMENTARY: Eurostoxx fails to make a higher high and closes below the
Nov 16 medium-term trendline, now initial resistance at 2616.8 alongside
the Dec 6 high at 2617.8. 10-day momentum has been showing negative
divergence, bears may take control and we see initial support at 2594.0,
the 5-DMA. Further support seen at 2572.9 and then at 2545.1, the 23.6%
and 38.2% Fibonaccis of 2427.3/2617.8, respectively.

10-gru-2012 7:20
MNI BUND TECHS: (H13) Bulls Target 146.46 Measured Move, Studies Bullish
RES 4: 147.36 2.00% moving average envelope
RES 3: 147.07 Projected channel top from Oct 22 low
RES 2: 146.46 Measured move target from pennant pattern break
RES 1: 145.92 1.00% moving average envelope
PREVIOUS CLOSE: 145.72
SUP 1: 145.23 High 13 Nov
SUP 2: 144.87 Daily highs 28, 30 Nov
SUP 3: 144.60 21-day moving average
SUP 4: 144.10 Channel lower from Oct 22 low
COMMENTARY: March Bunds continue to test the upper limits of the daily
Bollinger band while daily studies continue to rise. Last session's
price action met resistance just below the 1.00% MA envelope, still
intial resistance at 145.92. Weekly momentum study shows negative
divergence and initial support is seen at 145.23, the Nov 13 high.

[Nowy123]

to gora Londyn w dol dipa zrobil

[Mpapiez]

to gora Londyn w dol dipa zrobil

Po polsku poproszę.

[sureshot]

londyn sie nie pierdoli od razu jada zamknac luke bez cackania

-- Dodano: pn 10-12-2012, 9:23 --

albo i nie o ile widze to co widze

[snikers_m]

nie moga przbic 1,2918

[lolekfx]

Co sądzicie o GBP/JPY ?

[Nowy123]

to gora Londyn w dol dipa zrobil

Po polsku poproszę.

czego nie ruzmiesz DIP zrobil Londyn i teraz luke pewnie zakryja no braklo pare pipsa do zakrycia