DayTrading: Piątek 25.01.2013

[cajto]

Myślę, że dziś jest cholernie prawdopodobne wyjście z flagi na H4 i maszerowanie w kierunku 1.3770 (taka jest długość drzewca, tam jest dobry opór historyczny, to jest bodajże cel Goldmana, czy innego bankstera). Wątpię żeby zrobili wszystko jednego dnia, najbardziej prawdopodobne przystanki - 1.3480 (raczej krótki) i 1.3580 (ten jest wart szczególnej uwagi, raz że dobry opór, dwa, że odpowiada on szerokości proporca z wcześniej omawianej flagi). Zobaczymy co z tego wyjdzie.

[mario4545]

Przemyślenia przed dzisiejsza sesja...

http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/art-p ... 3599c.html

[rafmax]

Myślę, że dziś jest cholernie prawdopodobne wyjście z flagi na H4 i maszerowanie w kierunku 1.3770 (taka jest długość drzewca, tam jest dobry opór historyczny, to jest bodajże cel Goldmana, czy innego bankstera). Wątpię żeby zrobili wszystko jednego dnia, najbardziej prawdopodobne przystanki - 1.3480 (raczej krótki) i 1.3580 (ten jest wart szczególnej uwagi, raz że dobry opór, dwa, że odpowiada on szerokości proporca z wcześniej omawianej flagi). Zobaczymy co z tego wyjdzie.

tez uwazam ze dzis wybijemy sie w koncu z konsoli. ewentualny zasieg dla mnie na dzis to około 100 pips od 1,34, tak jak sama konsola

[freakout]

no i na edku zaczyna się chyba powolny rajd ku górze

[rafmax]

fake czy zapinac pasy ?

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: The World Economic Forum continues in Davos Friday and along with the
scheduled appearances on the main conference stage, the day is likely to be
dotted with ad hoc comment from policy makers. There is also a full data
calendar, starting at 0700GMT with the release of the German November
construction numbers. At 0800GMT, Spanish December PPI numbers will cross the
wires. The main German release of the day is expected at 0900GMT, with the
release of the January IfO index. Analysts are looking for the third straight
monthly rise, continuing a string of solid German survey data.

EUROPE: (2) The first of the day's set piece Davos events is also set for
0930GMT, when ECB President Mario Draghi address the Forum on "Lessons from the
Past; Challenges for Years to come." Markets will be closely watching the wires
at 1100GMT, when the ECB will announce the numbers relating to any early
repayments of loans from the first LTRO, as the one-year option can be
exercised. Back in Davos, at 1200GMT, Italian Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli
is to speak on "Creating Economic Dynamism." Then, at 1245GMT, European Central
Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco and French Finance Minister Pierre
Moscovici are to speak on "No Growth, Easy Money - The New Normal?" Back in
Europe, at 1700GMT, French December registered jobseekers data will be release.
Then, at 1800GMT, Italian Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli and Spanish Economics
Minister Luis de Guindos are on stage in Davos to speak on "Europe - Solidarity
or Dominion."

ITALY: The FT says Italian PM Monti could be forced to recall Parliament, as
questions swirl over the government handling of the financial crisis at Monte
dei Paschi di Siena.

EUROZONE: While the notion of the US enacting a transaction tax on instruments
seems unlikely (See bullet at 1:52 pm ET), the EU has pressed forward with such a
tax. Tuesday, EU finance ministers gave the go-ahead for 11 of the bloc's
members to work together on a common financial transactions tax. Germany,
France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and
Estonia will now work together with the EC on plans to tax trading in shares and
bonds at an expected minimum rate of 0.1% and derivates trades at a minimum
expected rate of 0.01%. The EC, the institution which drafts common legislation
for the EU, had last year proposed such a tax for all the EU's 27 members, but
the plan was squashed by the UK, Sweden, Poland and others which said the
proposal could be damaging if other global financial center avoided such taxes.
The 11 countries moving forward with the tax see the policy as a way to raise
revenue from the financial sector while at the same time curbing practices such
as high-frequency trading.



UK: At 0930GMT, the latest UK GDP data is released, giving an early glimpse at
the fourth quarter growth numbers. Markets are looking for a negative number,
setting the UK up for a "triple-dip" recession if Q1 numbers are also negative.
Also at 0930GMT, the UK November Index of Services numbers will cross the wires.

UK PRESS: The FT says there is concern amongst some bankers that the ECB's LTRO
could backfire in coming weeks, as banks will now have the option to repay money
early. There is a suggestion that as the stronger banks repay funds, the weaker
banks still relying on ECB funding could be left stigmatised, the paper says.

UK PRESS: Boris Johnson, the Tory Mayor of London, has urged the government to
junk the "language of austerity", while backing a package of infrastructure
spending, the Telegraph reports.

UK PRESS: The Telegraph picks up on recent Bank of America research warning the
upturn in global confidence risks a drying up of central bank liquidity and a
bond sell-off and "crash" to rival 1994.



US: The US data calendar starts at 1500GMT, with the release of December New Home
Sales and the December BLS Mass Layoffs.
New home sales are expected to rise further to a 388,000 annual rate in December
from the 377,000 rate reported in November, the highest rate since April 2010.
While sales remain well below their peak before the housing bust, there has been
some improvement seen over the last year. However, home supply has contracted
over the last year, and as a result, the month supply remains in free fall.





EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.3375 after rate had seen a strong rally
to $1.3393 on positioning ahead of today's LTRO repayment announcement (due
around 1100GMT). Rate saw an early high of $1.3380 into early Asian trading
before resuming the corrective pullback, the rate pressed down to $1.3350 before
meeting willing demand into the dip. This buying prevented reported stops
through $1.3350/40 from getting fired off. Rate recovered to $1.3367, dipped
back to $1.3353 before pushing higher again, touching $1.3372 ahead of the
European open. Germany Ifo due at 0900GMT to provide early interest but this
will be overshadowed by the LTRO repayment announcement around 1100GMT. Market
speculating that between E100-150bln to be paid back with market positioned for
this outcome. Expect a possible uptick on release if this proves to be the case,
though profit take sales could counter any further upside progress. A higher
repayment number and rate can lookk set to retest recent highs between
$1.3395/1.3405, a break of $1.3405/10 to expose stops. Below and expect longs to
quickly exit. Support remains into $1.3350, stops $1.3350/40.

EURO-DOLLAR: Spikes through resistance at $1.3400, the rate clearing above
$1.3405 to post fresh 2013 highs at $1.3417 on the initial break as stops
through $1.3405/10 triggered. Initial take profit sell interest seen into
$1.3420, with further sell interest seen into $1.3430. Above here and rate can
extend move toward $1.3450/60.


CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5788 after sterling had come under strong negative
pressure during the session as traders adjusted positions ahead of today's UK Q4
GDP release at 0930GMT with its possible negative implications if the headline
numbers comes in at negative. Cable saw lows of $1.5758, with strong demand in
euro-sterling, linked to general euro demand positioning ahead of today's LTRO
repayment announcement at 1100GMT, drove this rate through stg0.8450 on to
stg0.8481. Despite this late recovery, and reports of decent demand seen in
sterling-yen through Asia, sterling has continued to trade with an underlying
softer tone, cable easing down to $1.5762 ahead of Europe, while euro-sterling
saw an early low of stg0.8463 before edging back to pressure the stg0.8480/85
area. Weak talk suggesting the Q4 GDP first read could show a positive read
(+0.2% mentioned) though looking at sterling's current performance it takes a
lot of believing. However, analysts have suggested first read could be based
mainly on Oct, with the poorer months of Nov-Dec to gradually have more
influence in the revisions. Cable support $1.5755/45, $1.5725/20 ahead of
$1.5700. Resistance $1.5800, stops $1.5810.


YEN: The strong recovery in yen pairs seen through the Thursday's NY session
continued into Asia, dollar-yen quick to move above the NY high at Y90.56, the
move picking up decent momentum as stops were triggered above to take rate on to
Y90.69. Momentum faded on approach to Y90.70 with market reminded that there is
a Y86.75-90.75 DNT option structure in play, expires first week of March.
Protective selling prevented the trigger and prompted short term specs to cover
back/take profit. Rate touched a low of Y90.29 before picking up fresh demand,
traders noting Gotobi day demand into the Tokyo fix which edged rate back to
Y90.60. A brief easing to Y90.42 attracted late buying which took rate above
Y90.60 into the European open. Euro-yen tracked dollar-yen moves, extending its
recovery to Y121.31 before it pulled back to Y120.67 then settled around Y121.00
ahead of the Europe open. ECB LTRO repayment announcement at 1100GMT to provide
the morning's interest, the market seen positioned for a repayment amount of
between E100-150bln. (aove likely to provide the euro with a further boost,
below and long euro positions expected to be flushed. If as expected we could
see an initial blip higher before profit take selling emerges.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are sharply higher Friday, led by
exporters basking in the weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 was ahead by 305.78 points,
or 2.88%, at 10926.65. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
19.4 points at 916.7. Market breadth indicators saw 201 issue higher, 16 lower
and 8 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.928 bn shares.



AUSSIE: There are signs that Mrs Watanabe is leaving safe havens and returning
to Europe, says Westpac's head of fx strategy Rob Rennie. He notes data from
Japanese Investment Trust Association that showed ownership of AUD assets late
last year dropped to lows last seen in August 2010 while ownership of euro
assets have started to rise. Rennie says Westpac's analysis of flow data and
uridashi market plus recent reports together add to the sense that Japanese
retail investors' behavior is starting to shift. While a rapid return to Europe
seems unlikely for Mrs Watanabe (given Europe has a long history of political
infighting, so risks remain), recent data does suggest watching Mrs Watanabe is
important again and that euro/safe haven currency crosses (AUD, NZD, CAD)should
continue to move higher. Aussie-euro is at E78.15, little changed from early
Sydney but fell 1.3% in the previous session.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday after
posting some losses during the previous day. Spot gold ended Thursday's
session $17.90 lower, or 1%, at $1667.95/oz, the lowest close posted
since January 14. Gold prices came under pressure after data showed that
US jobless claims fell last week to five-year lows, which in turn
dampened demand for the precious metal. A continued stronger tone in
equity markets is also reducing demand for haven assets, adding
additional pressure to gold prices, which remain on course to post
weekly losses of around 1%. Market participants have also become
exasperated with gold's progress of late, as it failed to breach $1700
on the upside after stalling just short on several occasions due to lack
of physical demand as prices approach $1700. Large options positions,
based around the $1700 strike, have also hampered prices progressing
beyond those levels. This morning, spot gold prices have turned
moderately higher after initial lows of $1663.85/oz and now trade at
$1671.60/oz, up $3.65 on the session.


OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading marginally lower Friday after
rising 0.8% during the previous day. March WTI futures ended Thursday's
session 72 cents higher at $95.95 a barrel after trading in a $95.12 to
$96.68 range. Oil prices were underpinned after a drop in US jobless
claims added to some improved Chinese manufacturing data, sending some
flows back into riskier assets. New applications for unemployments
benefits in the US also fell to 330,000 last week, the lowest seen since
January 2008. Oil prices also benefitted from an EIA report that showed
crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Okla pipeline fell by 500,000 barrels
last week after seven consecutive weeks of gains. March WTI prices have
been tied to a narrow trading range so far this morning, moderately
easing after yesterday's gains, fading back from an initial high of
$96.02 to intra-day lows of $95.75 and now trade at $95.82 a barrel,
down 13 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading back in
positive territory Friday after posting some losses during the previous
day. February natural gas futures ended Thursday's session down 10.8
cents, or just over 3%, at $3.446 per million British thermal units (mln
Btu) after trading in a $3.441 to $3.592 range. Prices became subject to
further profit taking despite an inventory report from the US Energy
Information Administration (EIA) that revealed US inventories fell last
week by 172bln cubic feet (c/f), above market expectations for a 167bln
c/f draw. This morning, NYMEX February natural gas futures have advanced
from initial intra-day lows of $3.411 per mln Btu to session highs of
$3.478 a few moments ago and are currently trading near their best
levels at $3.477 per mln Btu, up from last night's close of $3.446 per
mln Btu.

OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3340, $1.3350, $1.3375, $1.3400
* Dollar-yen; Y89.00(large), Y89.25, Y89.50, , Y90.00
* Sterling-yen Y140.50
* Aussie; $1.0550

[adk]

Witam, przed 9 zawsze jest fake, nie wiem jak z edkiem, ale kabel też ciągnie, nie doleci dalej niż do 5800-5810, tam mam oczekujący sell limit.

Niemiaszku, jakie opcje dla kabla?

o 10:30 pkb GB, kwartalny na - roczny na +, takie są prognozy, oczywiście może byc różnie.

[crok.]

no to juz wyrobili norme dzienna na edku :0 szybko

[rafmax]

ja na kablu mam sell limit 1,5820, jak nabiora rozmachu to moze dojdzie. jak nie to z reki cos otworze

[adk]

ja na kablu mam sell limit 1,5820, jak nabiora rozmachu to moze dojdzie. jak nie to z reki cos otworze

5820 to dość wysoko, może nie dolecieć, ja mam 807