1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji autora.Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German
March PPI numbers, followed at 0700GMT with the Spanish February industrial
orders numbers. Further data is due at 0800GMT, with the release of the ECB's
February current account data and the Italian February industrial orders. As
noted, the G20 finance ministers meet again in Washington. Ahead of that, at
1130GMT, ECB Governing Council Member Jens Weidmann and German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schaeuble hold a press conference in Washington.
SWITZERLAND: The FT reports the Swiss are to hold a referendum on a measure that
would force the SNB to hold at least 20% of its assets in gold, effectively
forcing the SNB from selling its gold holdings.
UK PRESS: The FT notes Treasury officials says Chancellor George Osborne will
vigorously defend his position on austerit whjen officials from the IMF vist the
UK next month, adding the Chancellor will have a soldi ally in BOE
Governor-to-be Mark Carney
UK PRESS: With the next General Election due in 2015, the Independent says the
opposition Labour Party will "bet the house" on promising to outspend the Tories
on Public expenditure in the next Parliament.
UK PRESS: Switzerland is to hold a referendum on a measure that would ban the
central bank from selling its gold reserves and force it to keep at least 20% of
its assets in the yellow metal, The Financial Times reports. Under the terms of
the "Save our Swiss Gold" measure, which is led by members of the
ultra-conservative Swiss People's party, the Swiss National Bank would have to
repatriate gold reserves held abroad and keep them at home. The campaign had
gathered 106,052 legitimate signatures by Thursday. Under Swiss law, initiatives
that attract more than 100,000 signatures can be put to a referendum.
EURO SUMMARY: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.3050 after rate had seen recovery
highs of $1.3096, only to be repulsed ahead of $1.3100, the move down to $1.3043
ahead of the close seen as a reaction to Wall St turning negative and failure in
Italy to elect a new president after two electoral attempts. Rate marked early
lows in Asia at $1.3047 before performing a steady, slow recovery, aided by a
positive move in equities (rumour in Asia that Morgan Stanley will include China
A shares into the MSCI EM index which boosted Shanghai), the rate pushing to
highs of $1.3076 (61.8% $1.3096-43) before upside momentum faltered and rate
drifted off, settling between $1.3061/69 into Europe. Germany PPI at 0600GMT, EZ
current account at 0800GMT to provide the morning data interest, though these to
be overshadowed by headline risk as the G20 meeting in Washington continues,
Germany Weidmann and Schaeuble due to speak at 1130GMT. Reported comments from
Japan Aso that no G20 member has opposed Japanese monetary policy already
softening yen in late Asia. Euro-dollar offers remain at $1.3076, a break of
$1.3083 (776.4%) to expose $1.3096, with offers seen to $1.3110, stops
$1.3120/30. Support remains $1.3025/20, $1.3000.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.5279 after rate had been
pressured to session highs of $1.5312, bouncing back from its post UK retail
sales data react lows of $1.5218, with rate seen meeting plenty of willing spec
sellers above $1.5300. The corrective pullback was also aided by reaction to
late negativity on Wall Street, which prompted some paring back of risk
positions, along with comments from BOE Weale suggesting the UK economy may have
contracted in Q1 and that the improving inflation outlook may provide room to
manoeuvre on policy. Rate initially edged back to $1.5291 in early Asian
dealing, dropped back to $1.5273 before picking up stronger demand that edged
rate back toward $1.5300, meeting resistance ahead of the figure that capped the
move at $1.5298. However, rate was seen retaining its underlying buoyant tone
ahead of the European open, remaining above $1.5290. Euro-sterling closed in NY
at stg0.8542, after this rate had pulled back from post UK data highs of
stg0.8574 to stg0.8530, meeting resistance at stg0.8560 before settling between
stg0.8540/45 into the close. Trade through Asia was contained by
stg0.85365/0.85485. Cable offers $1.5300, $1.5310/20, $1.5350. Bids $1.5275/70.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Thursday at Y98.20 with early trade into
Asia contained within a range of Y98.11/35. Rate was given a boost off the post
Tokyo fix low of Y98.11 as Japan's Aso commented that he had heard no opposition
at G20 to the BOJ's monetary policy. This comment prompted decent demand in yen
pairs, taking dollar-yen to session highs of Y98.68, euro-yen to Y128.94, before
upside momentum faltered. Talk of decent sell interest placed from Y98.80
through to Y99.00 (Japanese exporters and macro interest) prompted some profit
take sales into the falter which pressed dollar-yen back to Y98.40, euro-yen to
Y128.55. Dollar-yen settled backa round Y98.50 ahead of Europe, euro-yen around
Y128.70/80. Yen remains open to further headline driven trade as the G20, World
Bank-IMF meetings continue, with no tier-1 data due out of the US today. Coming
into the weekend some position adjustment could be seen later. Dollar-yen has
stops placed at Y99.10, though if triggered expected to meet further sell
interest placed from Y99.20 and which is said to extend toward Y99.70. Strong
offers remain ahead of Y100.00. Support Y98.10/00, Y97.80 with stops below.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are trading higher Friday. The
Nikkei 225 was higher by 96.41 points, or 0.73%, at 13316.48. Into the close,
the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 4.74 points at 1127.71. Market breadth
indicators saw 129 issue higher, 80 lower and 16 unchanged. Preliminary volume
stood at 2.018 bn shares.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E23.583bln allocated by Netherlands, France, Spain, Greece,
Belgium, Portugal, Slovenia and Ireland compared to E24.979bln allotted last
week. To recap, on Monday Netherlands sold E1.46bln 3-month DTC at average yield
-0.027%, and E1.37bln 6-month DTC at average yield -0.011%. France sold
E3.998bln 3-month BTF at average yield 0.011%, E1.997bln 6-month BTF at average
yield 0.027% & E1.697bln 12-month BTF at average yield 0.060%. On Tuesday Spain
sold E1.191bln 6-month Letra at average yield 0.53% and sold E3.878bln 12-month
Letra at average yield 1.235%. Greece sold E1.625bln 13-week T-bill at average
yield 4.05%. Belgium sold E1.406bln 3-month TC at average yield 0.015% and
E1.602bln 12-month TC at average yield 0.08%. On Wednesday Portugal sold E250mln
3-month T-bill at average yield 0.743% and E1.5bln 12-month T-bill at average
yield 1.394%. Slovenia sold E1.109bln 18-month T-bill at average price 94.089.
Finally on Thursday Ireland sold E500mln 3-month T-bill at average yield 0.195%.
T-bill issuance is expected to slow down next week with plans from France,
Spain, and Italy is expected to total E19.0bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There is no sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone scheduled
Friday, which has been completed for this week and totals E35.7bln vs E23.7bln
sold last week. As a recap, Slovakia tapped 4.625% 2017 SLOVGB219 and the 3.00%
2023 SLOVGB225 for E157.3mln and E376mln, respectively. On Tuesday, Italy placed
E17.056bln in a new BTP Italia bond - a four year government bond indexed to
domestic inflation. On Wednesday, Germany re-opened its 10-year benchmark 1.50%
Feb 2023 Bund issue for up to E4.0bln. On Thursday, France tapped its 2-year
benchmark 0.25% Nov 2015 OAT and 5-year benchmark 1.00% May 2018 OAT for
E7.911bln. In addition, France also tapped linker issues -- 0.45% July 2016
BTANi, 0.10% July 2021 OATi and 1.85% July 2027 OATei issues for E1.49bln. Also
on Thursday, Spain tapped its 3.30% 2016 Bono, 4.50% 2018 Bono, 5.40% 2023
Obligacion bonds for E4.713bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemptions are
due from Italy E16.7bln, Germany E11.0bln, Ireland E5.62bln and Greece E2.72bln
and coupon payment also from Ireland E1.26bln, Italy E1.14bln, Germany for
E0.89bln, Finland E0.64bln, Portugal E0.58bln, Netherlands E0.11bln and Greece
E0.01bln -- turns net cash flow positive to the tune of E5.0bln.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
uważam że na edku możemy jeszcze dziś zobaczyć 1.31,
a nawet wyżej jest możliwe.
na razie spacerujemy w kanale wzrostowym od dna na poziomie 1.30, które to zostało spowodowane przez wypowiedź jakiegoś kolesia, który twierdził że ECb może stopy procentowe obniżyć, a jak już wiadomo negacja takich wypowiedzi nie potwierdzona w rzeczywistości często kończyła się jeszcze wyższym szczytem/dołkiem po odrobieniu strat..
zmiana robotow i nie oslabiaja juz u.chf 
