DayTrading: Czwartek 20.12.2012

[niemiaszek]

Hello


EUROPE: Germany starts European data for Thursday with the 0700GMT release of
PPI, which is expected to come in at -0.1% m/m for November, 1.3% y/y. Italy
retail sales follow at 0900GMT. At 1400GMT, Belgium business confidence data is
due, while at 1500GMT, Eurozone flash consumer confidence data is up. Also in
Europe today, Germany's DIW economic research institute releases its monthly
economic barometer, in Berlin. Later data sees the 2100GMT release of France
Insee economic outlook. Then, at 2300GMT, the German Finance Ministry releases
monthly fiscal and economic report, in Berlin.

NORWAY: At 0915GMT, Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen speaks in Oslo.

BELGIUM: Moody's said that Belgium's Aa3 government bond rating is supported by
credit strengths such as a developed, diversified economy, substantial private
sector savings as well as efficient and transparent institutions. In its annual
credit report on Belgium, Moody's also added that the rating also incorporates
the credit challenges posed by the government's relatively high debt as well as
the medium term challenge of maintaining international competitiveness and
improving labor force participation. "The negative outlook on the rating signals
the economic, fiscal and financial risks that the euro area sovereign and
banking crisis poses to Belgium's very open economy, which is strongly connected
to the euro area. These risks include difficulties in meeting fiscal targets due
to slower than anticipated growth and the contingent liabilities arising from
the government's support to certain financial institutions", added Moody's.



UK: UK data sees Retail Sales for November at 0930GMT, which are expected to
come in at 0.3% m/m, 2.2% y/y ex-fuel and 0.3% m/m, 1.4% y/y for the Total
figure. Retail sales fell sharply in October due to a drop in sales at food and
clothing and footwear stores. While the sharp monthly fall in clothing and
footwear volumes of 2.3% may have been exaggerated following a timing related
boost in September from school uniform sales, declines were seen across most
other categories suggesting general weakness.

UK PRESS: The FT notes on Thursday that Catalonia will hold an independence
referendum in 2014, saying how this is setting the Catalan leadership firmly on
a collision course with Madrid.



US: (1 of 2) US data starts at 1330GMT, when the level of initial claims is
expected to rise 15,000 to 358,000 in the December 15 employment survey week
after falling 29,000 in the previous week. Claims were at a level of 416,000 in
the November 17 employment survey week. Also at 1330GMT, third quarter GDP is
expected to be revised up slightly to a 2.8% rate in the final estimate for the
third quarter. The chain-price index is expected to be unrevised at 2.7%.
Analysts are already looking to the fourth quarter data, which is expected to be
weaker

US: (2 of 2) US data continues with a sloew of data at 1500GMT when the pace of
existing home sales is expected to rise to a 4.89 million annual rate in
November after rising in October. Analysts expect the impact of Hurricane Sandy
to be seen starting with the November data. The Philadelphia Fed index is
expected to rise to a reading of -1.0 in December after falling to -10.7 in
November in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, whose effects could linger into
December and beyond. The index of leading indicators is expected to fall 0.2% in
November. Positive contributions are expected from a longer factory workweek and
rising consumer expectations. These should be offset by negative contributions
from falling stock prices and new orders and rising jobless claims, though the
jump in initial claims was in large part due to Hurricane Sandy and its
aftermath. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage data is due at 1530GMT. Late US
data sees the weekly M2 Money Supply data at 2130GMT.

US: A clearly frustrated President Barack Obama said Wednesday he and
House Speaker John Boehner are within striking distance of a sweeping budget
agreement, but added that Boehner has suddenly backed away from serious talks.
"I remain optimistic," that a budget agreement can be reached, Obama said, but
added he is puzzled by Boehner's decision to push for an alternative tax plan in
the House on Thursday. "There is a deal that can be done," Obama told reporters,
adding that the sides oare only a "few hundred billion dollars" apart. "I remain
eager to get something done" before Christmas. Obama said the emerging package
would have about $1 trillion in spending savings and $1 trillion in additional
revenues



EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3228 as rate extended its corrective
pullback from intraday highs at $1.3308. A stalling in Fiscal Cliff talks, with
Pres. Obama warning that he will veto the Republican 'Plan B', acted to dent the
recent risk on tone. Late NY, early Asia sales of yen pairs by US speculators
acted to provide further weight into the overnight session, with Asian traders
also noting a negative reaction to a FT interview with the Greek FinMin where he
suggests 2013 is a make or break year for his country. Euro-dollar was pressed
to extended lows of $1.3187 but quickly picked up demand interest which allowed
it to reappear back above $1.3200, though upside progress was countered as rate
met sell interest placed into $1.3230. Despite the overnight pullback traders
still note some buoyancy as Eurozone peripheral yields continue to ease. Bids
seen from $1.3190 to $1.3180. Talk that recent sovereign demand between
$1.3170-50 has been pulled. Offers $1.3230/35, $1.3250/65 ahead of $1.3280.
Stronger interest remain $1.3300/10.

MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3400 Barrier
$1.3350 Barrier/Stops
$1.3340 Options; Large OT set to roll off Dec31
$1.3320 Stops
$1.3300/10 Strong offers/$1.3308 Wednesday high Dec19
$1.3255/65 Strong offers
$1.3230 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3212 ***Current mkt rate 0755GMT Thursday
$1.3187 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3190/85 Medium demand
$1.3170 Stops
$1.3150/40 Medium demand (recent sovereign bids here pulled)/Stops
$1.3125/15 Strong demand
$1.3100 Medium demand on approach
$1.3085/80 Medium demand


CABLE: Closed in NY Wednesday at its corrective pullback lows of $1.6248 seen
after rate had been rejected from $1.6307, having failed to post fresh 2012
highs above $1.6310. The move down was provided with added weight as euro-dollar
also eased off highs with the recent risk on tone given a jolt as Fiscal Cliff
talks in the US look to be stalling. Cable jumped up to $1.6260 into the Asian
session, as euro-sterling extended its corrective pullback from Wednesday highs
of stg0.8165 to stg0.8122, but the move down in euro-dollar into Asia countered
and squeezed rate to session lows of $1.6238. Buyers quickly took advantage of
the dip and edged it back to $1.6260, as the cross touched stg0.81155 before
recovering. Recovery in euro-dollar saw cable edge on to $1.6263, but correction
to stg0.8140 saw it settle between $1.6245/55 into Europe. UK retail sales at
0930GMT the domestic interest but Fiscal Cliff negotiations overshadow. End year
sovereign demand, seen in recent session for euro-dollar and cable, expected to
cushion pullbacks.


YEN: Dollar-yen and euro-yen both came under heavy selling through the NY-Asia
transition, the former getting shoved down from its close at Y84.40 to Y83.94,
with stops triggered on the break under the earlier NY pullback low at Y84.20.
Euro-yen extended its corrective pullback off earlier highs of Y112.59 to
Y110.82 as US speculators pared back short yen positions ahead of the BOJ policy
announcement. Euro-yen managed to recover to Y111.55/65 through early Tokyo
trade, while dollar-yen edged back to Y84.34. BOJ announcement that it would
increase its Asset Purchase Fund by Y10tln (though traders point out that only
Y5tln will be used to increase outright JGB buys) prompted a volatile react in
yen, before yen demand acted to take dollar-yen to extended lows of Y83.86,
euro-yen to Y110.74 but demand into the dips allowed rates to hold off those
lows into Europe.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: The Nikkei 225 index ends down 1.19% at 10039.33.


GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Thursday after
posting some moderate losses during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Wednesday's session $4.57 lower at $1666.20/oz after falling to lows of
$1661.01/oz, the lowest level seen since August 31. Gold prices have
tentatively recovered during this morning's Asian session as market
participants remain on edge after talks to avoid a US fiscal crisis
appear to have been hampered over the course of the last 24 hours or so,
after officials from President Obama's administration told leaders of
business and financial services groups that talks with House Speaker
John Boehner had deteriorated. Spot gold prices have moderately improved
from initial lows of $1665.28/oz to trade up to an intra-day high of
$1671.49/oz and now trade $1669.80/oz, up $3.60 on the session. Metals
brokers report muted flows so far, with some sell stops present just
below $1650/oz the only thing of note so far this morning.


OIL: February NYMEX WTI prices are trading lower Thursday giving up some
of the gains posted the previous day. February WTI futures ended
Wednesday's session at $89.98 a barrel. The January contract, which
expired yesterday, rose $1.58 to $89.51 a barrel, after trading in a
$87.81 to $89.90 range, with prices underpinned by EIA data showing
higher demand. Yesterday's settlement was the highest seen since October
19. This morning, WTI prices have corrected back lower from some of
their recent gains, hampered by faltering budget negotiations in the US,
after officials from President Obama's administration told leaders of
business and financial services groups that talks with House Speaker
John Boehner had deteriorated in the past 24 hours. February WTI futures
have gapped lower during Asian traded hours this morning, slipping from
initial highs of $89.85 a barrel to intra-day lows of $89.42 and now
trade at $89.50 a barrel, down 48 cents on the session.


NATURAL GAS: NYMEX January natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Thursday, recovering some of the losses posted during the
previous day. January natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session down
9.8 cents, or 2.9%, at $3.320 per million British thermal units (mln
Btu), after trading in a $3.284 to $3.414 range. Prices became pressured
by ongoing concerns that supplies remain at high levels as December
continues to proceed with almost no very cold weather. MDA Weather
Services noted its 6 to 10-day and 11 to 15-day forecasts turned
slightly warmer overnight, but the private forecaster still expected
mostly normal temperatures to dominate the East, while below seasonal
readings will move into the West. In terms of supply, attention turns to
the weekly EIA Natural Gas Storage report, due to be published later
today at 1530GMT, with most analysts expecting inventories to have
fallen by around 72 bcf last week. January natural gas futures have
recovered from lows of $3.316 this morning to edge higher to intra-day
highs of $3.360 and now trade at $3.355 per mln Btu.


OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.3250, $1.3290, $1.3300(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y83.50, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.50
* Cable; $1.6300
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2090
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0480, $1.0500
* Kiwi; $0.8350, $0.8425
* Euro-Sek; Sek8.6295
* Euro-Nok; Nok7.3000


EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Attention remains on 2013 issuance calendar releases in the
absence of supply this week. Germany is likely to publish its calendar, perhaps
as soon as today and Finland is due to publish its 2013 outlook on Friday. Italy
is the only country left in the eurozone to conclude its 2012 issuance, with
zero coupon CTZ bond due to be sold on Dec 27 and month-end BTP auction due on
Dec 28. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction
calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 20 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.5bln
- Dec 20 German FinMin releases monthy fiscal and economic report
- Dec 21 Italy PM Monti year-end press conference at 1100GMT?
- Dec 21 Greece T-bill redemption for E1.3bln
- Dec 21 Portugal T-bill redemption for E2.132bln
- Dec 21 Portugal YTD budget report
- Dec 22 Spain El Gordo Christmas annual lottery E2.5bln
- Dec 25 Christmas day holiday
- Dec 27 Italy T-bill redemption for E3.0bln
- Dec 27 Italy T-bill/CTZ auction
- Dec 28 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
- Dec 31 Italy T-till redemption for E9.0bln
- Dec 31 Italy CTZ bond redemption for E11.833bln
- Jan 1 Ireland takes over 6-month Presidency of the Council of EU
- Jan 4 Eurozone flash HICP

[Nowy123]

to co po korekcie

[Adam]

Długoterminowo na edku to "na dwoje babka wróżyła" możliwe zarówno up jak i down ja bym obstawiał do końca roku wzrosty a w styczniu głębszą korektę. Ostatecznie można próbować zagrać pod wczorajszego pina ale taki samotnik jest dość ryzykowny

[niemiaszek]

OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut, update:
* Euro-dollar; $1.3250, $1.3275, $1.3290, $1.3300(large)
* Dollar-yen; Y83.40, Y83.50, Y84.00, Y84.30, Y84.50
* Cable; $1.6300, $1.6100
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2090
* Aussie; $1.0400, $1.0455, $1.0480, $1.0500, $1.0525, $1.0600
* Kiwi; $0.8350, $0.8425
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9150
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2090
* Euro-Sek; Sek8.6295
* Euro-Nok; Nok7.3000

[Nowy123]

Długoterminowo na edku to "na dwoje babka wróżyła" możliwe zarówno up jak i down ja bym obstawiał do końca roku wzrosty a w styczniu głębszą korektę. Ostatecznie można próbować zagrać pod wczorajszego pina ale taki samotnik jest dość ryzykowny

racja

d1

[atlanticos]

powiem tyle...po wczorajszych spadkach mamy obecnie na edku i kablu formacje flagi.... co oznacze ewentualne wybicie nie musze chyba nikomu tlumaczyc... przy;pominam ze edek zrobil wczoraj ponad 100 pipek...

jak przebije 3185 to zobaczymy jeszcze w tym roku okolice 3090

[adk]

z tej flagi kabel wyszedl gora, dajmy mu czas do 10:30, prognozy dobre, ale roznie moze byc.

[mac2_l]

Jako początkujący obstawiam dzisiaj na edku: 1.3130 i na kablu 1.62

[ForexTig3r]

powiem tyle...po wczorajszych spadkach mamy obecnie na edku i kablu formacje flagi.... co oznacze ewentualne wybicie nie musze chyba nikomu tlumaczyc... przy;pominam ze edek zrobil wczoraj ponad 100 pipek...

jak przebije 3185 to zobaczymy jeszcze w tym roku okolice 3090

Realizacja zysków wcześniej nastąpiła, jak widać teraz rynek nie bardzo żwawy więc można uznać chyba już koniec roku na rynkach, a od nowego kontynuujemy trend.

Choć masz rację flaga kluczowy opór teraz 3140, on chyba zdecyduje, czy polecimy w dół czy w górę.
NA H1 Hammer wzrostowy.

Diabelnie się rynek powtarzał ostatnio, tylko ten ostatni wzrost jeszcze bardziej wydłużony niż wcześniej.
Z tym kanałem rzeczywiście tj. poprzednio może stanowić barierę tera, wcześniej się odbijaliśmy i spadaliśmy.

[Asset]

Rzeczowy wpis nr 29 na http://www.macronext.pl/pl/blog/wpis/pr ... m#comments :

Dziś nie spodziewam sie, żadnych ruchów, jeśli już to raczej w górę od otwarcia. Dziś jest ostatni dzień roku i to jest najważniejsze. Właściwie wszyscy są zarobieni, więc nikt teraz nie sprzeda bo by musiał zapłącić podatek. (mowa oczywiście o akcjach)
Jutro natomiast już mamy nowy rok więc spokojnie można zrealizować zyski i ew. podatek zapłacić dopiero w 2014 roku.
Gdybym ja posiadał akcje to pewnie tak bym zrobił, napewno nie sprzedałbym dziś, jutro bym sprzedał nawet kilka procent taniej, przy wzroście 40 % w miesiąc na wielu akcjach to żadna róznica. A potem poczekał na schłodzenie wskaźników i pewnie znów wszedł w długą, chyba, że spadek poniżej 2450 ale nie przypuszczam.
Jutro można zrobić fajny manewr, zjechać nawet 4 % chłodząc ostro wskaźniki a potem ostro wzrosnąć albo na fixie albo zaraz przed i będziemy prawie w tym samym miejscu ale wskaźniki nam sie będą wychładzać, przez 2 ostatnie sesje trzymać linię prostą i w nowym roku możemy próbować iść dalej do góry.