DayTrading: Czwartek 2.05.2013

[mechia]

USD/JPY Trader
02.05.2013 03:03 By: Richard Sexton
Buyers are evident at 97 support where option barriers are said to exist. We are long in anticipation of a resumption of the up trend that will break above stops above 100. Our target is just ahead of the 102 big figure while our stop is just below structural support from March highs. (RS)

Pozycja: LONG
Na poziomie: 97.24
Otwarcie/zamknięcie: 02.05.2013 16:56
Take Profit : 101.90
Stop Loss : 96.30

Level Technical Significance
98.59 Tenkan-Sen
98.20 Daily High Apr 29
98.13 Daily High Apr 30
97.69 Session High
===== =================
96.99 Daily Low Apr 30
96.26 Kijun-Sen
95.67 Daily Low Apr 16
95.38 61.8% of 92.57-99.95

[rajdel]

97 na UJ caly czas pilnowane

A widziałeś informacje z Thomson Reuters?
UJ:
otw: 97,24
tp: 101,90
sl: 96,30

[Nowy123]

pod 97 musi byc sporo SL bo bronia teo i bronia

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:03 --

97 na UJ caly czas pilnowane

A widziałeś informacje z Thomson Reuters?
UJ:
otw: 97,24
tp: 101,90
sl: 96,30

nie nie widzialem i to przemawia by pojechac po SL tym bardziej i nawrot

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:07 --

EUR JPY na 1 h jakies RGR wyrysowali

[rajdel]

pod 97 musi byc sporo SL bo bronia teo i bronia

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:03 --

97 na UJ caly czas pilnowane

A widziałeś informacje z Thomson Reuters?
UJ:
otw: 97,24
tp: 101,90
sl: 96,30

nie nie widzialem i to przemawia by pojechac po SL tym bardziej i nawrot

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:07 --

EUR JPY na 1 h jakies RGR wyrysowali

też myśle, że zjedzie pod ich SL albo w okolice może 96,80

jak chcesz na prv podesle Ci ich wykres

[birkof86]

oj zaraz sie zacznie mieszanka

[Nowy123]

pod 97 musi byc sporo SL bo bronia teo i bronia

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:03 --

97 na UJ caly czas pilnowane

A widziałeś informacje z Thomson Reuters?
UJ:
otw: 97,24
tp: 101,90
sl: 96,30

nie nie widzialem i to przemawia by pojechac po SL tym bardziej i nawrot

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:07 --

EUR JPY na 1 h jakies RGR wyrysowali

też myśle, że zjedzie pod ich SL albo w okolice może 96,80

jak chcesz na prv podesle Ci ich wykres[/quote]


http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/201 ... pdate.html kabel ciekwe a tam dwa banki na S graja

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:21 --

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com ... y-and.html

-- Dodano: czw 02-05-2013, 8:26 --

EUR USD tez RGR jakies na 1 h rysuja pytanie czy nie flaszywe zrobia wybicie

jesli EBC obnizy stopy to pewnie powrot na 13060 - 70 okolice

[niemiaszek]

Hello



EUROPE: Thursday sees European markets return to the fray following the Mat Day
holidays and the ECB's lunchtime policy decision will be the stand out feature.
Ahead of that, there is a full calendar, starting at 0700GMT, with the release
of the French April car registrations. Also at 0700GMT, the Spanish April
employment data will be released, which is expected to mirror the EU data seen
earlier in the week. Euro area April final manufacturing PMIs are seen from
0713GMT, when Spanish numbers cross the wires, followed at 0743GMT by Italy,
0748GMT France, 0753GMT Germany and the overall eurozone figure at 0758GMT. The
day's big event starts at 1145GMT when the ECB's May policy rate decision is
expected, followed by ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference at 1230GMT.
Markets are probably split down the middle on whether the ECB cuts rates this
meet or at the June meet.

ECB: The day's big event starts at 1145GMT when the ECB's May policy rate
decision is expected, followed by ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference
at 1230GMT. Markets are probably split down the middle on whether the ECB cuts
rates this meet or at the June meet. Certainly, senior ECB officials have told
MNI that "conditions for a cut" seem to be in place, with the President having
support on the governing council. However, some think they may wait until June,
when the ECB projections are released. Those expecting June also point to the
fact that the ECB has never acted on rates when on a "road trip" and would
likely wait until back on home turf - although the ECB sources note this is "not
a set rule". Either way, this month or next, the market is expecting a 25 bps
cut in the main lending rate.

EUROPE: An article in the Telegraph says the EMU pressures are starting to build
on the Netherlands, as rising unemployment and high personal indebtedness are
pushing the country towards a debt-deflation trap.

GREECE: The former ruling PASOK party is currently in dispute over party
financing, as current leader Venizelos and former PM Papandreau are at odds.
However, eKathimerini says officials from both parties have assured PM Samaras
that the coalition government is not a risk



UK: The UK April CIPS/Markit Construction PMI is expected at 0830GMT and is again
seen edging higher on the March number.

UK PRESS: Triple-dip? The UK may not even have suffered a double-dip, both the
NIESR and ONS said Weds, the Times reports. Data from Q4 2011 and the first two
quarters of 2012 could be revised to be either flat or modestly higher, the
paper says.

UK PRESS: The FT says the Government may be preparing to sell its stakes in High
Street banks at a loss, in order to be free of the sector before the next
election, the FT says. The paper says some government officials are preparing
the ground, with the argument that the previous Labour government paid too much
for the stakes in Lloyds and RBS.

UK PRESS: Thursday sees local government elections across many parts of the UK,
with the coalition parties both expecting losses to the opposition Labour Party.
However, the Tories, the senior coalition party, is also expecting losses to the
more euro-sceptic UKIP, the FT says



US/CANADA: The calendar starts at 1130GMT, with the release of the
latest Challenger Layoffs data for April.
The Jobless Claims data for the April 27 week are expected
at 1230GMT, along with the March International Trade Balance and the Q1 non-farm
productivity numbers.
Initial jobless claims are expected to rise 6,000 to 345,000 in the April 27
week after falling 16,000 in the previous week, which resulted in a 4,500 drop
in the four-week moving average. Because the March 30 week's 388,000 level will
roll off the four-week average calculation as the current week's is added, the
average should decline further if the median MNI forecast is realized, all else
being equal
First quarter productivity is expected to rise 0.9% after the fourth quarter
dip, as output growth is seen accelerating based on the recently released GDP
data and hours worked are expected to post a small acceleration that should be
outpaced by output. As a result, unit labor costs are expected to hold steady in
the first quarter following a sharp fourth quarter rise.
The international trade gap is expected to narrow slightly to $42.1 billion in
March from the $43.0 billion gap in February. Import prices fell 0.5% in the
month and were still down 0.2% excluding a 1.9% drop in fuel prices. Export
prices fell 0.4% and were down 0.2% excluding agricultural commodity prices.
Boeing reported 30 foreign aircraft deliveries in March, up from 28 in the
previous month.
At the same time, in Canada, the March International trade numbers are due.
1245GMT, the April NY ISM Business Index will cross the wires.
At 1430GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage data for the March 26 week are due. Late
data sees the release of the US Money Supply (M2) for the April 22 week at
2030GMT.

US PRESS: The WSJ says the number of bond funds that are turning to stocks and
other "riskier" assets are at the highest levels in over 18 years, as more
usually conservative investors look to boost returns.



EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed Wednesday's NY session at $1.3183 having
bounced off initial FOMC react lows of $1.3169 to $1.3224 before drifting off
into the close. Rate touched an early high at $1.3190 in Asian trade before
continuing its drift lower, the rate stepping its way to an overnight low of
$1.3166 before edging back above $1.3170 into Europe. Fed FOMC provided no real
surprises, though some read into the text that they have left the door open to
more QE. However, focus now shifts to the ECB rate decision at 1145GMT with a
majority of market forecasters expecting a cut in the refi rate by 25bps. If
this occurs the deposit rate is expected to remain at zero while the lending
rate is expected to move down by between 25-50bps. The corrective pullback off
Wednesday's highs of $1.3243 seen on market positioning for this, with unchanged
rates likely to cause more initial react. Analysts attention on what Draghi will
announce as regards lending to SME's, noting that action could the euro back in
favour. Support remains between $1.3165/60, more at $1.3145/40. Resistance
$1.3185/90 ahead of $1.3215/20, with stronger interest between $1.3240/50. EZ
final mfg PMI ahead of ECB, with US weekly jobless claims at 1230GMT.

EURO-DOLLAR: Early Europe demand failed to take rate back above $1.3180 with
sellers quickly emerging to press rate back toward overnight lows at $1.3166.
Bids are seen into $1.3160 but talk of stops placed from below this level, and
extending to $1.3140 being noted.

EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3340/50 Medium offers/$1.3342 61.8% $1.3711-1.2745 2013 range
$1.3315/20 Medium offers
$1.3290/300 Medium offers
$1.3240/60 Medium offers/Stops mixed in
$1.3243 Wednesday May1 high
$1.3190 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3157 ***Current mkt rate 0637GMT Thursday
$1.3153 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3166
$1.3140 Medium demand
$1.3130/20 Strong support/Stops
$1.3105/00 Medium demand/$1.3100 76.4% $1.3055-1.3243
$1.30085/80 Medium demand
$1.3055/50 Strong demand/$1.3052 Tuesday Apr30 lows
$1.3030/10 Strong demand


STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in Ny at $1.5558 after rate had bounced back from
initial FOMC react lows of $1.5557 to $1.5607 (move taking out barrier interest
at the figure) before easing off to $1.5550 then edging higher into the close.
This recovery continued into Asia, the rate edging on to $1.5572 before turning
lower in tandem with euro-dollar, stepping its way to lows of $1.5542, holding
heavy into Europe. Euro-sterling was contained within a tight stg0.8463/73 range
through Asia after rate had extended its recovery Wednesday to stg0.8498,
traders earlier in the session saying that they would look to fade rallies
toward the stg0.8500/10 area. ECB rate decision, and following Draghi press
conference, key today, with US weekly jobless claims also expected to be in
focus ahead of Friday's major US Employment Report. Domestic interest in the UK
will be on construction PMI data at 0830GMT, though more interest noted in
Friday's release of services PMI. Cable support $1.5540, with interest extending
toward Wednesday lows around $1.5527. Stops $1.5520. Offers $1.5600/10, the
rate having found resistance Wednesday at $1.5607 (50% $1.6381-1.4832 2013
range). Euro-sterling offers remain stg0.8500/10, bids stg0.8460-40.



YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Wednesday at Y97.41, having bounced between
Y97.07-54 following the FOMC announcement, with that Y97.00 area continuing to
keep rate buoyed. Rate was pressed down to Y97.09 is early Asian trade, dealers
noting that main sell weight seen on the back of euro-yen fund sales. Asian
reserve demand was again noted ahead of the Y97.00 level, some suggesting the
Y97-104 DNT option structure is still in place (despite Tuesday touching a low
at Y96.99). Rate recovered to Y97.42 before drifting down to Y97.13 ahead of the
European open. Asian traders have mentioned that decent sized CTA stops are
placed from Y96.90 through to Y96.60 (said to be linked to offers placed between
Y97.80/98.00), though others note decent demand remaining in place between
Y96.80/70. Technical traders view the March high at Y96.71 as critical on a
close basis. Other offers seen back in place from above Y97.50. ECB rate
decision, Draghi press conference and US weekly jobless claims seen in focus
today, ahead of key US employment report Friday.

JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are mixed Thursday, as markets get
set for the long holiday weekend. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 105.31 points, or
0.76%, at 13,694.04. Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 6.87
points at 1151.50. Market breadth indicators saw 45 issue higher, 171 lower and
9 unchanged. Preliminary volume stood at 1.532 bn shares.


OPTIONS: FX: Option expiries for today's 1000ET cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3070, $1.3090/95, $1.3135, $1.3100, $1.3150,
$1.3160, $1.3200
* Dollar-yen; Y97.00, Y98.00, Y98.50, Y99.00
* Euro-yen; Y126.00
* Cable; $1.5380, $1.5540
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9255, Chf0.9275, Chf0.9305
* Aussie; $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0360, $1.0365, $1.0375
* Kiwi; $0.8415


EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been completed
for this week, with E12.467bln allocated by Germany, France, and Belgium
compared to E21.934bln allotted last week. To recap so far this week, on Monday,
Germany sold E2.815bln 12-month bubill at average yield 0.0018%. In the
afternoon France sold E4.001bln 3-month BTF at average yield -0.002%, E1.996bln
6-month BTF at average yield 0.008% and E1.83bln 12-month BTF at average yield
0.029%. On Tuesday Belgium sold E775mln 3-month TC at average yield -0.001% and
E1.05bln 6-month TC at average yield 0.014%. T-bill issuance is expected to pick
up next week with plans from Netherlands, France, Greece and ESM, and is
expected to total E14.5bln.

EUROZONE ISSUANCE: France comes to the bond market Thursday with the AFT due to
launch a new 10-year benchmark 1.75% Mar 2023 OAT issue and also tap off-the-run
3.25% Oct 2021 OAT along with 5.75% Oct 2032 OAT issues for between
E7.0bln-E8.0bln. As things stand, total sovereign issuance in the eurozone is
expected to come in around E17.79bln. As a recap, Italy kicked off issuance on
Monday with tap of its 5-year benchmark 3.50% June 2018 BTP and also 10-year
benchmark 4.50% May 2023 BTP issue for E3.0bln each issue. Also on Monday,
Belgium tapped its 5-year benchmark 1.25% June 2018 OLO69 and 10-year benchmark
2.25% June 2023 OLO68 along with off-the-runs 4.25% Sep 2021 OLO61 and 5.50% Mar
2028 OLO31 for E3.785bln. In terms of reinvestment flows, redemption payments
from Italy E12.44bln and Spain E14.94bln along with coupon payments from Italy
E4.78bln and Spain E4.17bln -- leaves net cash flow positive to the tune of
E18.5bln vs E32.8bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please
see eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.

FRANCE AUCTION PREVIEW: The Agence France Tresor (AFT) plans to sell a new
10-year benchmark 1.75% Mar 2023 OAT bond on Thursday and also tap off-the-run
3.25% Oct 2021 OAT along with 5.75% Oct 2032 OAT issues for between
E7.0bln-E8.0bln. Grey market pricing is implying the issue trades at 1.823%
mid-yield or a roll of +13bps mid vs the 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT issue. Key factor
seen supporting the auction is expectations of an ECB rate cut and dovish
comments from ECB President Draghi at the press conference in Bratislava later
in the afternoon. In addition, the auctions are also seen underpinned by the
recent E23.61bln redemption and coupon payments for E16.7bln from France on Apr
25. For comparison purposes, the old 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT was last sold on Apr 4
for E2.01bln at average yield 1.94% and covered 3.08 times. The 3.25% Oct 2021
OAT was last sold on Mar 5, 2012 and the 5.75% Oct 2032 OAT was last sold on Jan
3, 2013 -- therefore not comparable. Auction results are due after bidding close
at 0900GMT.


EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- May 02 ECB Governing Council meeting, Draghi press conference in Bratislava
- May 02 EU Barroso, Italy PM Letta press conference in Brussels
- May 02 European final Apr manufacturing PMI survey
- May 03 EU releases Spring Economic Forecasts
- May 03 German FinMin Schaeuble speaks at University of Ulm
- May 06 ECB Draghi speaks at LUISS Guido Carli in Rome
- May 06 European final Apr PMI services survey
- May 06 Spain Apr unemployment data
- May 08 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- May 08 Italian Apr Target2 data and central bank lending figures
- May 09 Spain bond auction
- May 09 ECB quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters
- May 10/11 G8 FinMin & central bank governors meeting in the U.K
- May 10 Italy T-bill auction
- May 10 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.6bln

US: Timeline of key events in the US for the next few days:
- May 02 Fannie Mae to announce Benchmark Note issuance
- May 02 UST announces 3/6m bills at 1100ET
- May 02 Money Supply (M2) at 1630ET
- May 02-04 Pres Obama travels to Mexico & Costa Rica
- May 03 April Nonfarm Payrolls, est +150k, +0.2 AHE at 0830ET
- May 03 Fed Gov Tarullo at Peterson Institute in Washington at 1230ET
- May 03 Fed Lacker (non-voter) at RMA in Richmond at 1245ET
- May 03 Treasury STRIPS at 1500ET
- May 06 UST announces 4wk at 1100ET
- May 06 UST auctions 3/6m bills at 1130ET
- May 07 - Pre Obama meets S. Korea Pres Park Geun-hye
- May 07 UST auctions 4wk at 1130ET
- May 07 UST auctions 3y in May refunding at 1300ET
- May 07 Apr Treasury Allotments
- May 08 Fed Gov Stein at Chicago Fed conf at 0930ET

[Nowy123]

U J

97 bronia jak niepodleglosci bo jak by peklo to z 100 pipsa zleciec mogli by a nawet kolo 150

[BOCZEK]

o trzynastej iles ebc ustala stopy, a po jakims czasie te payrolsy czy cos z usa. tak czy owak bedzie ciekawie.

[Nowy123]

o trzynastej iles ebc ustala stopy, a po jakims czasie te payrolsy czy cos z usa. tak czy owak bedzie ciekawie.

09:30 CHF PMI SVME 49,0 48,3
09:43 EUR Wskaźnik Manufacturing PMI we Włoszech 44,80 44,50
09:48 EUR Francuski PMI 44,4 44,4
09:53 EUR PMI Niemieckich Producentów 47,9 47,9

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