1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed in NY Wednesday at $1.3787 after rate had
recovered off an earlier session low of $1.3740 to $1.3811 as markets were
reported to have shifted focus to next week's FOMC. Hilsenrath comments
suggesting Fed could consider a 'reverse repo' facility and talk that ex-Bank of
Israel Stanley Fischer could be offered Yellen's deputy Fed governor seat did
the rounds in NY. Rate drifted off into the close, edged to $1.3791 in early
Asia before it got squeezed down to $1.3773. Buyers quickly emerged to take
advantage of the dip and took rate up to session highs of $1.3798, the rate
managing to hold above $1.3790 ahead of Europe. Early sellers in Europe have
$1.3790 area under pressure. Euro continues to enjoy an underlying buoyant tone
with traders linking this to an end year cash squeeze. Interesting to note that
the euro has managed to brush aside poor EZ data of late with the upside trend
overpowering. Today we have EZ IP data at 1000GMT and expected to show an
improvement from Sep's negative read, though recent weak showing from Germany
and France has market prepared for another poor number. On this note, and with
the mentioned trend, an improved number could have the bigger effect.
EUR/USD: Euro-dollar continues to pressure $1.3800 level while testing above to
yesterday's high at $1.3811, however failed to close above. Bulls continue to
target Oct 28 reversal high at $1.3832 and a break above would extend gains up
to June 2007 reversal high at $1.3852. However, daily studies still overbought
and failure to close above $1.3800 adds downside risk. We also note a decline
from here could leave a double-top pattern - base is Nov 7 low at $1.3296.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen dipped to session low of Y102.92 after starting the week
at Y103.02 in Asia morning, dollar bulls brought it to session high of Y103.23
before Japan's 3Q final GDP & trade data was released and it drifted down to
session low of Y102.89 in late Asia morning before rebounding to Y102.99 last.
Dollar bulls cleared offers at Y102.95/00, breaching NY's high of Y102.97 but
further offers at Y103.20/25 capped the pair's advance and bulls took some
profits albeit weaker-than-expected data. Euro-yen tracked dollar-yen's movement
as it edged up to hit fresh 5-year high/session high of Y141.55 before
retreating to session low of Y140.69 and rebounds to Y141.15 last. Dollar-yen's
strength built on last Friday's strong NFP numbers and strong rally in Japanese
stocks as it gapped higher on Asia opening, the Nikkei rising 1.93% last. The
yen crosses remain biddish amid stronger dollar-yen and higher equities. Strong
China trade balance & exports boosted aussie and Asian stocks as well, lifting
yen crosses higher.
USD/JPY: Dollar-yen now moves back above the daily Tenkan line after closing
below yesterday. Daily studies meander lower and weekly studies are near
overbought levels, bears look to take control but require to close below the Dec
6 low at Y101.64. Ahead of here, support is at Y102.02 and Y101.73 - the 23.6%
and 21-DMA. However, failure to test support could see studies rise further into
overbought territory and could allow bulls to retest the Dec 10 high at Y103.39.
EUR/JPY: Euro-yen holds back in the rising channel from Nov 6 and bulls now look
to retest the top as initial resistance at Y141.91. A break above would likely
retest the Dec 10 high at Y142.17 and above here resistance is thin until the
daily Bolli top at Y143.05. However, studies are overbought and failure to break
above Y142.17 could see sentiment reverse to the downside. Initial support is
yesterday's low at Y140.92, break below here targets daily Tenkan at Y140.30.
AUSSIE: Aussie dollar is ending the Asian session within striking distance of
it's daily lows of $0.9011, with the recent nadir of $0.8990, set on Dec 6th,
very achievable in the European session. After a weak overnight run and a stable
morning, the Employment data for November saw the market react initially to the
stronger than expected headline jobs growth of +21,000 (MNI Median +10,000) to
post a $0.9082 high, but selling was immediate and dominating, with a
concentration from the major analysts on the unemployment rate (up 0.1 to 5.8%,
as expected) and weak hours numbers. The next three hours saw a series of lower
lows until some squaring up into Europe has seen the pair lift about 15bps to
sit at $0.9026. AUD/NZD also continues to set new recent lows at prices not seen
since the 2008 GFC began, with today's low of $1.0899 not much more than a
spread-cross from current levels at $1.0904.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Wednesday at $1.6378 after rate had been
pressured lower through the day from early Asian highs of $1.6458 to $1.6340
before it managed to recover and make a show back above $1.6400 in NY. However,
this correction proved short lived and rate drifted off into the close. Rate
marked Asian session highs in early trade, the rate edging up to $1.6379 before
turning lower again, trading to an overnight low of $1.6354 before it settled
back around $1.6360 into the Asian afternoon and ahead of Europe. Euro-sterling,
which fulfilled trader forecasts for it to move back above stg0.8400 Wednesday,
traded to a high of stg0.8431, consolidating between stg0.84165-0.8431 through
Asia. Recovery in the cross provided a counterweight to recent cable gains,
though traders still look to short the cross on any advance toward stg0.8450,
and was seen restricting cable recovery efforts as it struggled to build on a
show above $1.6400. Offers seen placed at $1.6380, stronger between $1.6400/05.
Support $1.6340 ahead of $1.6325/15. Euro-sterling offers remain at
stg0.8430/35, ahead of stg0.8450. Support stg0.8400. Light UK data calendar,
Osborne to be questioned by Commons Panel on his Autumn Statement at 1130GMT.
GBP/USD: Cable slips towards the 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466 - now initial support
at $1.6322. The decline from Dec 10 $1.6466 high has allowed daily studies to
reverse lower and bears will look to break below the 38.2% level seen at
$1.6233. Break below here could see a decline to the July support line at
$1.6109 where decent support is expected. However, monthly studies still rise
and a break above the Dec 10 high would likely challenge the $1.6500 level.
moja magiczna kula, mówi mi iż, możliwy zasięg tego bądź nastepnego tygodnia to 1.3987 na Edwardzie
w mojej ocenie oczywiście, później śmiało możemy zjeżdżać o jakieś 200 pipek i dalej up. (tak to wieszczę)
kk.dreamer pisze:Niemaszku co znaczy symbol OT przy EU 1.3850?
OT – One Touch (JednoDotykowe) : Kupujący otrzymuje sztywną wypłatę jeśli cena spot osiągnie poziom aktywacji w dowolnym czasie przed wygaśnięciem.
To że jest opcja na 1.3850 OT nie znaczy, że rynek musi tam dojść i zaliczyć ten poziom, bo nie wiemy jak duża jest ta opcja i czy "ktoś" da radę wyciągnąć kurs do tego poziomu.
Należy to traktować jako zwykłą informację, że w dniu dzisiejszym jest taka opcja i wygasa o 16:00 czasu PL.
Zwracam uwagę dla grających na CHF, bo może trochę pobujać ceną
SNB rate announcement at 08:30 GMT and Jordan press conference at 09:00 GMT. CHF has run to a new 2-year high vs. USD and 7-month high versus the Euro.
Ostatnio zmieniony 12 gru 2013, 08:53 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
