1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Zdecydowanie jestem za ankietą na teraźniejszy dzień, a nie przyszły (co zresztą było by głupotą i zaprzeczeniem tematu wątku).
Odbicie od 1.2950 jest jak widać "kolosalne", z AT H4, H1, wygląda to wręcz twierdząco.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
Ostatnia próba - ataku na okolice 1.295.-1.298(nie musimy tam dojść) Azjaci nie sprzedawali namiętnie w tej sesji (ale wyglądało, że są obecni na rynk - czekam zobaczyć gdzie się odbijemy i podczepić się z większymi rybami. Jeśli dobrze to odczytuje. - to ostatni pik UP - żeby rozpocząć ruch spadkowy 100-170pips ?
USDJPY nam się konsoliduje w wąskim 30 pipsowym zasięgu.
Jeśli dobrze pamiętam na 78.50 - były duże zlecenia... (skupują Yeny/sprzedają dolce) By spuścić na poziom 77.000 i sprowokować BOJ ? (Bank w tym roku nie interweniował oficjalnie! - a miał na ten cel 1.5X-2X [coś koło Biliona USD?] więcej środków w budżecie - coś się kroi...
Rostowski jakby był rasowym spekulantem - to by Azji wciskał nasz dług
Sentyment na tej parze bearish. Jak BOJ zainterweniuje to warto być w pociągu. 400 pip w godzinę.
EURJPY - również nadal Baerish. - jednak Interwencja możliwa
Taki misterny plan: http://dzienniktradera.pl/?attachment_id=1612 /kliknij na załącznik/otwórz w nowym oknie/powiększ/
- ruch spadkowy na dwa dni. We wtorek publikacja danych z EUROPY. W tym Niemiec. (ZEW)
Hmm: taki nwes: "Mass foreign bond buying by BOJ" Na ile można wycenić jakby się pojawił??/spekulacja/
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
marekdt pisze:Ostatnia próba - ataku na okolice 1.295.-1.298(nie musimy tam dojść) Azjaci nie sprzedawali namiętnie w tej sesji (ale wyglądało, że są obecni na rynk - czekam zobaczyć gdzie się odbijemy i podczepić się z większymi rybami. Jeśli dobrze to odczytuje. - to ostatni pik UP - żeby rozpocząć ruch spadkowy 100-170pips ?
USDJPY nam się konsoliduje w wąskim 30 pipsowym zasięgu.
Jeśli dobrze pamiętam na 78.50 - były duże zlecenia... (skupują Yeny/sprzedają dolce) By spuścić na poziom 77.000 i sprowokować BOJ ? (Bank w tym roku nie interweniował oficjalnie! - a miał na ten cel 1.5X-2X [coś koło Biliona USD?] więcej środków w budżecie - coś się kroi...
Rostowski jakby był rasowym spekulantem - to by Azji wciskał nasz dług
Sentyment na tej parze bearish. Jak BOJ zainterweniuje to warto być w pociągu. 400 pip w godzinę.
EURJPY - również nadal Baerish. - jednak Interwencja możliwa
Taki misterny plan: http://dzienniktradera.pl/?attachment_id=1612 /kliknij na załącznik/otwórz w nowym oknie/powiększ/
- ruch spadkowy na dwa dni. We wtorek publikacja danych z EUROPY. W tym Niemiec. (ZEW)
Hmm: taki nwes: "Mass foreign bond buying by BOJ" Na ile można wycenić jakby się pojawił??/spekulacja/
Japonse strasza i strasz interwencja bonarzekaja na drogiego Jena zobaczymy czy wkoncu wykonaja ruch
EUROPE:French data starts at 0630GMT, with the release of
the September BoF retail survey, followed at 0645GMT with the release of
the August current account numbers.At 0800GMT, Italian final September HICP data is released.
At the same time, the IEA monthly oil market report is released.
In between the UK data, at 0900GMT, the EMU Aug industrial output
numbers are released.Ireland's September bank borrowing from the ECB numbers are then
released at 1000GMT.
UK: Another full calendar Friday, with the IMF/World Bank meetings
continuing in Tokyo. Also at the weekend, the G7 finance minister meet
in Tokyo. Early UK data sees the release of the John Lewis Sales for the
week ending October 6, released just ahead of 0600GMT. UK data continues
at 0830GMT, with the release of the August Construction Output numbers
and the August CML Mortgage Approvals. That is followed at 1300GMT with
the release of the August Conference Board Leading Indicator.
UK PRESS: Managers at currency hedge funds had their best month of the
year in September, the FT reports, as EM provides solid returns in the
wake of Fed QE3. Citing research by Parkers Currency Managers index, the
paper says managers recorded average gains of 1.11% in the month.
UK PRESS: The UK government is looking to build new gas-fired power
stations in the UK, the Times reports, in an attempt to help reduce
energy bills.
UK PRESS: The cost of global air freight prices has spiked higher in
recent weeks as both Apple and the broader supply chain look to deliver
millions of new iPhone 5's.
UK PRESS: The Times says the EBRD is set to discuss an E15 bn plan to
help shore up the countries in Eastern Europe at risk of further
contagion from the Greek crisis.
US: The US calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the release of the
September Producer Price Index. Producer prices are expected to rise
0.8% in September after surging 1.7% in August on a sharp energy price
rebound. Energy prices are expected to rise further in September while
food prices are forecast to continue their march higher. The core PPI is
expected to rise 0.2% in the month. At 1355GMT, the October University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will be released. The Michigan
Sentiment Index is expected to fall slightly to a reading of 78.0 in
early-October after rising to 78.3 in September. All of the confidence
data were higher in September despite continued concerns about the
economy. Rather, driving those increases was sharply increased optimism
about future conditions.
US: (2) At 1900GMT, the final US Treasury Budget Statement for FY 2012
is released. The U.S. government is expected to post a $75.0 billion
budget surplus in September, which would finish off the fiscal year with
a $1.092 trillion gap for the full year. This compares to the $1.297
trillion gap for the 2011 fiscal year. Late data is expected at 2015GMT,
with the release of the U.S. C&I Loans data. Events in Tokyo continue at
the weekend, with a raft of IMF/WB/G7 headlines likely on Monday
morning.
US index futures are higher in Asian trade Friday. The Dec S&P mini
contract was last 3.75 points higher at 1432.25, with the Nasdaq Dec
mini 6.5 points higher at 2719.75. Dow futures are 25 points higher at
13290.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2930 after easing off a session recovery
high of $1.2952 (76.4% $1.2991-1.2826) to $1.2922. Rate opened Asia in a
steady $1.2925/30 range before it picked up a bid tone led by the
reaction to the MAS decision to leave rates unchanged, which, along with
another low Cny fix, placed general pressure on the dollar. Euro-dollar
edged to a high of $1.2947 before momentum waned, leaving the rate to
drift down to session lows of $1.2922 before settling between $1.2925/30
again into Europe. Second tier data on the calendars with the only
possible market mover seen from potential comments from the
Greece-Troika talks. The IMF/World Bank talks continue in Tokyo with
G7-G20 FinMin meetings seen into the weekend. Offers remain in place
between $1.2950/60, a break to open a move on toward Oct9 high at
$1.2991, with offers seen from here through to $1.3000.
Support remains into $1.2920 ($1.2922 23.6% $1.2826-1.2952), a break to
allow for a deeper move toward $1.2905/00 ahead of $1.2875/70. US PPI
and UofM data may provide some US action.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.2990/000 Strong offers/$1.2991 Oct9 high/Stops
$1.2978 Tech 61.8% $1.3072-1.2826/Offers to $1.2980
$1.2966 Tech 1.618% swing proj. based off $1.2913-1.2826 pullback
$1.2960 Medium offers on approach/Stops/$1.2961 Oct9 hourly high
$1.2952 Thursday Oct11 high/76.4% $1.2991-1.2826
$1.2947 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2933 ***Current mkt rate 0626GMT Friday $1.2922 Int.Day low Asia/23.6% $1.2826-1.2952/Bids to $1.2920
$1.2905/00 Medium demand
$1.2890 Broken resistance now support/Stops
$1.2875/70 Medium demand $1.2855/45 Strong demand
$1.2826 Thursday Oct11 low $1.2825 Tech 200-dma
$1.2820-00 Strong demand/$1.2804 Oct1 lowStops
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6046 after recovering from a pullback low of
$1.6026 off a session high at $1.6055. Rate dipped to $1.6042 in early
Asia before edging up to retest the NY high, ,making a brief show at
$1.6056 as the dollar came under general pressure following the move by
MAS to keep rates on hold as well as producing a less dovish than
expected accompanying comment. Sell interest placed between $1.6050/60
countered the early move with rate dropping back initially to $1.6030
before marking a base at that NY pullback low of $1.6026. Rate was
trading back above $1.6030 into early Europe. Euro-sterling stg0.8056 to
an overnight high of stg0.8069 before settling between stg0.8062/67.
Nothing major on the UK data calendar for today, BOE Paul Tucker though
is due to speak in Tokyo at 0545GMT. Influence to come from euro-dollar
plays, with focus on any comment from the Greece/Troika discussions. US
PPI and UofM confidence to provide interest through the afternoon. Cable
resistance $1.6050/60, a break exposes $1.6070 ahead of $1.6095/1.6100.
Support $1.6026 to $1.6015. More bids $1.6000, stronger at $1.5985/75.
MNI Cable: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6217 Friday Oct5 high (post NFP)
$1.6140/60 Strong offers/Stops/$1.6160 76.4% $1.6217-1.5975
$1.6120/25 Strong offers
$1.6100/05 Medium offers
$1.6085/90 Medium offers
$1.6055/65 Medium offers/Stops/$1.6065 1.618% swing $1.6035-1.5985
$1.6056 Int.Day high Asia (Thursday high $1.6055)
$1.6040 **Current market rate 0637GMT Friday
$1.6026 Int.Day low Asia
$1.6025/15 Medium demand
$1.6005/00 Medium demand
$1.5985/75 Strong demand/Area of recent lows
$1.5965 Tech 38.2% $1.5393-1.6310
$1.5950/40 Strong demand
$1.5925/10 Medium demand/$1.5900 Stops
YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY at Y78.37, having pulled back from a
Y78.59 high to Y78.28 ahead of the close. Rate recovered in early Asia
to Y78.54 before turning lower, the moving down in line with other Asian
dollar pairs as they took their lead from dollar-Sgd following the MAS
decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Rate squeezed back to Y78.32
before picking up fresh demand into early Europe. Rate currently trades
around Y78.40. Resistance remains into Y78.60, with stronger sell
interest noted between Y78.70/80 ahead of Y79.00. Support seen at
Y78.35/25, stops placed on a break of Y78.20. Euro-yen closed in NY at
Y101.33 after pulling back from Y101.72 to Y101.22 into the close. Rate
recovered to Y101.60 in Asia before turning lower, meeting support
between Y101.25/20 before recovering to Y101.40 into Europe. Offers
remain between Y101.70/85, more into Y102.00. Support seen around
Y101.00, more toward Y100.70 with stops below. Continued intervention
jaw-boning expected into the G7-G20 FinMin meeting this weekend, as well
as M&A Japan Softbank/US Sprint Nextel, to keep soft tone on yen.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 12.66 points, or 0.15%, at
8534.12, weighed mainly by two issues - Softbank and Fast Retailling.
Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 4.51
points at 718.46. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 1.187
bn shares, with 187 issues higher, 28 lower and 10 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday after
posting some moderate gains during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $5 higher at $1767.35/oz after the US dollar eased
back from a one-month high. Despite yesterday's moderate gains, gold
remains on target to record its biggest weekly drop in two months as
prices continue to correct back from the Oct 4 high of $1796.50, with
the market still yet to punch through the $1800 level on the upside.
Prices continue to trade on a rang ebound basis, with no fresh catalyst
seen in recent session to drive prices convincingly in either direction.
Buyers of gold will be looking for the precious metal to hold above
$1750/oz to prevent a deeper correction, with options gamma support
currently defending the $1748/52 area. Spot gold prices have been tied
to a narrow trading range so far this morning, after initially slipping
back from an intra-day high of $1771.30/oz. Since then, gold has edged
its way back higher from a session low of $1766.50 to now trade at
$1770.10 a troy ounce, up $2.75 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading marginally higher Friday
after managing to hold on to some of its gains posted during the
previous session. November light sweet crude oil futures settled up
$0.82 at $92.07 per barrel, after trading in a $91.09 to $92.94 range.
Prices have still yet to breach the 55-day moving average (MA),
currently at $93.45, after challenging that area several times since mid
September. WTI prices responded positively to some upbeat US data after
US jobless claims fell to their lowest level in more than four years,
with rising tensions between Turkey and Syria also lending a hand to
underpin oil prices. November WTI futures initially slipped back from an
intra-day high of $92.60 a barrel during Asian traded hours this morning
and have held at a session low of $92.08, with the market currently seen
trading $92.26 a barrel, up 19 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading around
unchanged levels Friday after posting a fourth consecutive session of
gains the previous day. November natural gas futures ended Thursday's
session 12.9 cents higher, or 3.7%, at $3.604 per million British
thermal units (Btu) after advancing to a fresh 2012 high shortly after
the release of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report,
which showed domestic gas inventories rose last week by 72 bln cubic
feet (bcf) to 3.725 trillion cubic feet, coming in below market
expectations of around 80 bcf. November futures have now gained more
than 6% so far this week with prices also underpinned by cold Northeast
and Midwest weather that has generated decent heating demand. Nymex
November natural gas futures have surrendered some of their gains so far
this morning, paring back from session highs of $3.628 per mln Btu to
trade an intra-day low of $3.601 per mln Btu a few moments ago.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone has been
completed for this week and totals E13.76bln vs E13.61bln last week. As
a recap, Netherlands kicked off supply on Tuesday with re-opening of its
5-year benchmark 1.25% 2018 DSL for E2.255bln. On Wednesday, Germany
re-opened its 5-year benchmark 0.50% 2017 Bobl for E4.0bln and also its
10-year linker 0.1% Apr 2023 Bundei issue for E1.5bln. Italy sold a
combined maximum size of E6.0bln for its 3-year benchmark 4.50% July
2015 BTP along with its off-the-run 4.75% Sep 2016 BTP, 4.50% Aug 2018
BTP and 5.00% Mar 2025 BTP bonds at its regular mid-month auction
Thursday. Elsewhere, Belgium has cancelled its Optional Reverse Inquiry
(ORI) auction on Friday. In terms of reinvestment flows, there is only
one redemption from Germany for E16.0bln and coupon payments amount to
E1.4bln from Germany (E1.35bln) and Italy (E30mln) - to leave net cash
flow positive to the tune of E3.6bln vs E11.3bln last week. For full
details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar
& MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct -- Possible Moody's Spain ratings action (due anytime October)
- Oct 12 G7 FinMin meeting in Tokyo
- Oct 12 IMF/World Bank meetings in Tokyo
- Oct 12 EU Van Rompuy meets with Finland PM Katainen in Helsinki
- Oct 12 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.3bln
- Oct 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E7.0bln
- Oct 15 Italy BTP redemption for E18.373bln
- Oct 16 Spain T-bill auction (12-/18-month)
- Oct 16 Bank of Italy releases Quarterly Economic Bulletin
- Oct 18 ECB meeting
- Oct 18/19 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
- Oct 18 Spain bond auction
- Oct 19 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.02bln
- Oct 19 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln
- Oct 19 Portugal T-bill redemption for E589.4mln
Ostatnio zmieniony 12 paź 2012, 08:51 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Nie wiem czy wam to cos mówi - ale na kabelku na dziennym uformowało sie takie oto cudenko - co według mnie wyglada na gwiazde poranna i przygotowuje go do wzrostów oraz na aussie przygotowanie do pokonania 1.0300 - wiec na dobra sprawe edek moze nie spasc jak co poniektórzy mysla . wszakze to tylko forex i tu wszystko jest mozliwe
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
masz na plus zabierz - zawsze mozesz sie wpiac na nowo
bikedoctor pisze:Nie wiem czy wam to cos mówi - ale na kabelku na dziennym uformowało sie takie oto cudenko - co według mnie wyglada na gwiazde poranna i przygotowuje go do wzrostów oraz na aussie przygotowanie do pokonania 1.0300 - wiec na dobra sprawe edek moze nie spasc jak co poniektórzy mysla . wszakze to tylko forex i tu wszystko jest mozliwe
to nie jest gwiazda tylko zwykłe Doji
Kawa powinna być czarna jak smoła, słodka jak pszczoła i gorąca jak smoła
bearish. Jak BOJ zainterweniuje to warto być w pociągu. 400 pip w godzinę.
