może być gorąco na najbliższym szczycie, od tych cyferek co komu i kiedy to oczopląsu można dostać
EU: Steve Barrow of Standard Bank says the Nov 22-23 EU Summit may see some
fireworks, with great debate about the budget. The EU looks to increase the size
of the budget by E100bn over the next 7 years and the UK is seeking to trim the
budget in real terms. If other EU members vote yes, UK PM Cameron "will either
have to veto the budget, which he can do or face taking the deal back to
parliament, where the government can be defeated again." While Barrow does not
see the UK withdrawing from the EU, he sees scope for the UK to become more
isolated. The upcoming row is likely to have ramifications for both the euro and
cable, he says
sporo tego, ale podsumowanie i analiza z tego co powiedział Draghi:
Analysis: ECB Draghi Open To Rate Cut, Firm On OMT Conditions
08-lis-2012
By Johanna Treeck
FRANKFURT (MNI) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi
Thursday expressed a more dovish view of the Eurozone economy, but it
may be premature to expect an interest rate cut in the very near term.
Draghi also firmly rejected calls from Spain's Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy to give the country clear guidance on how far down the
central bank would be willing to push Spanish borrowing costs should
Madrid seek a bailout.
After the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 0.75%, Draghi said
the prospects for the Eurozone economy have deteriorated further, so
"certainly the outlook is being revised." His comments suggest that the
ECB staff's new growth forecasts will show a downard revision when they
are unveiled after next month's monetary policy meeting. At the same
time, Draghi stressed that inflationary pressures currently pose no
problem.
This undoubtedly more dovish assessment suggests that the central
bank is keeping the door open for further monetary easing, but it should
not be read as a clear signal of a near-term rate cut.
Draghi said that "monetary policy is already very accommodative."
He also noted twice that the easing of financial market tensions after
the ECB's announcement of the OMT bond buy program was in itself
equivalent to additional monetary easing.
The Governing Council may therefore want to continue monitoring
economic and financial data to see what effect the OMT-driven easing
will have on the real economy. In fact, Draghi's statement that the ECB
has "not discussed what we're going to do next year in terms of monetary
policy," could be read as a signal that rates will stay where they are
in December.
Draghi firmly rejected Rajoy's insistence that the ECB commit to
reducing Madrid's borrowing costs further should Spain seek a bailout.
And he expressed no concern over Madrid's hesitation to turn to the ESM
bailout fund.
"It's entirely up to Spain and the Spanish government to take this
decision. It's not up to the ECB," Draghi said. He reiterated his line
that the bond buying plan is "a fully effective backstop mechanism" and
that "the conditions for accessing [it] are also very, very clear. The
ball is completely in the courts of the governments."
How aggressively the ECB might intervene once conditions are met
will depend on "the assessment of the actual state of fragmentation" in
the Eurozone, Draghi continued. "There is not any automatic quid quo
pro" for countries that agree to sign up for ESM aid programs, he added.
Draghi's other comments, however, did not suggest that the ECB
intends to drive down sovereign refinancing costs aggressively. He noted
that the OMT is there to "remove tail risks" without taking pressure off
governments, and to "help to avoid extreme scenarios."
Draghi went out of his way to highlight improvements that the mere
announcement of the OMT has brought to markets, but he made clear that
the ECB is still "not satisfied at all" with financing conditions in the
euro area. Still, activation of the OMT is not the only way to reduce
the fragmentation, Draghi said. Successful reform and consolidation
policies could also do the trick.
Turning to Eurozone's most fiscally troubled country, Draghi said
the central bank is essentially out of ammunition to relieve Greece's
debt burden, thus suggesting that it would not participate in a debt
reduction deal or sell its Greek bonds back to Athens at current
discounted market prices. He pointed to the existing deal for national
governments to pass on profits from the ECB's holdings of Greek debt
under the SMP program. Beyond this, "the ECB is by and large done,"
Draghi said.
As long as a Greek default is avoided and markets continue to play
along, the ECB could end a busy year - one in which the central bank
injected some E1 trillion in three-year loans into the banking system
and announced the possibility of unlimited bond purchases - on a quiet
note.
