1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
***************************
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
a koledzy co myslicie o zlocie?? po wczorajszej szpilce i szybkim odrobieniu znow atak na 1250-55?? edek przelamal ladnie 1.3620 i mam nadzieje ze poleci ;]
EUROPE: There is plenty of data on the calendar for traders to digest Tuesday,
with the added "excitement" of Fed speakers later in the day. The European
calendar kicks off early, with the release of German November retail sales and
November ILO employment data. At 0745GMT, French December consumer confidence
numbers are expected to cross the wires. Confidence is seen unchanged at 84.
German official December unemployment data will cross the wires at 0855GMT, with
economists looking for a fall of 1,000 on month, with the rate unchanged at
6.9%. Euro area data expected at 1000GMT sees the release of the November PPI
data and the December flash HICP data. November PPI is expected to come in at
-0.1% on the month and down 1.3% on year. December flash HICP is seen up 0.8% on
year. At 1100GMT, there is a briefing in Brussels on the EMU.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro traded between $1.3593 and $1.3653 in New York and
started in Asia at $1.3629 this morning. It found itself trapped between $1.3626
and $1.3636 in the early hours of Tuesday amid a lack of significant flows in
either direction. Euro-dollar retreated to a $1.3621 low as euro-yen weakened
after Japanese stocks opened lower. A lack of follow-through again kept
euro-dollar from falling further and coupled with rumored bids from Asian
accounts, it then spent the rest of the Asian day trapped between that low and
$1.3630. Up ahead, sell orders at $1.3650 also kept euro-dollar from pursuing
further gains, and the pair was last at $1.3626, just about where it had opened
in Asia today. Only a close above $1.3716 would help to confirm a break of the
21-day moving average ($1.3710) and see focus shift back to retests of the
$1.3819 Dec 30 high. While the $1.3716 caps, the immediate focus remains on a
move lower that initially targets the $1.3520-25 region with the 100-day also
noted just above at $1.3541.
07-Jan-2014 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Eye Key July Support Line At $1.3563
RES 4: $1.3813/24 Rising channel base, Daily Bolli top
RES 3: $1.3743 Former Nov 7 support line
RES 2: $1.3707/10 Low Dec 13, 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.3653/55 High Jan 6, 5-DMA
LATEST PRICE: $1.3624
SUP 1: $1.3594/96 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893, Daily Bolli base
SUP 2: $1.3563 Support line from Jul 9
SUP 3: $1.3524/41 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893, 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3462 Low Sept 25
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar bounced from just above the July support line at $1.3563
and key support. Bears look to test this level while daily studies slide,
however we note momentum is turning higher on daily and weekly charts. A break
below July support line would likely shift sentiment lower again and see bears
test the 100-DMA and 61.8% level at $1.3541 and $1.3524, respectively. But bulls
will aim to hold above the 50.0% level at $1.3594 to pressure the upside.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3750 Medium offers
*$1.3720/25 Medium offers
*$1.3700/10 Medium offers/$1.3710 21-dma
*$1.3690 Strong offers
*$1.3670/75 Medium offers
*$1.3650/55 Strong offers/$1.3653 Jan6 high(NY)
*$1.3636 Int.Day high Asia/$1.3639 40-dma
*$1.3617 ***Current mkt rate 0646GMT Tuesday
*$1.3610 Int.Day low Europe (50-dma), Asia $1.3621
*$1.3600 Strong demand
*$1.3595/90 Medium demand/Stops
*$1.3575/70 Medium demand/$1.3572 Jan6 low/Stops on break
*$1.3562 T-line off Jul9 2013 lows
*$1.3555/50 Strong demand
*$1.3525/20 Medium demand/$1.3524 61.8% $1.3295-1.3894, Dec3 low
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.6402 after rate had managed to
recover off a traded low of $1.6337 (soft UK svcs PMI release) to $1.6434 in the
NY session, as markets sold the dollar across the board on release of weaker
than forecast US non-mfg ISM data. Rate then corrected back to $1.6394 before
settling between $1.6400/20 into the close. Rate recovered to retest that late
NY recovery high at $1.6420 in early Asian dealing but again met decent
resistance here. Rate drifted off to $1.6395, recovered to $1.6407 before
extending lows to $1.6387 into the Asian afternoon. Cable was trading around
$1.6395 into Europe. Euro-sterling was contained within a tight stg0.8302/13
range in Asia allowing cable to track euro-dollar moves. Halifax house price
data due at 0800GMT and provides the only domestic interest. Germany retail
sales at 0700GMT and EZ inflation at 1000GMT the outside interest this morning.
Sterling continues to trade with an underlying soft bias, following weekend
press report suggesting the BOE may lower its unemployment threshold (currently
7.0%, possibly moving to 6.5%) linked to rate hike considerations. Cable offers
$1.6420, $1.6434-50. Bids $1.6380. E/stg offers stg0.8330/35, support stg0.8280.
07-Jan-2014 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Failed To Test July Support Line At $1.6318
RES 4: $1.6603 High Jan 2
RES 3: $1.6555 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6484 High Dec 18
RES 1: $1.6434/47 High Jan 6, 5-DMA
LATEST PRICE: $1.6394
SUP 1: $1.6358/60 High Nov 28, High Dec 13
SUP 2: $1.6317/18 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603, July Support line
SUP 3: $1.6273 Former Monthly Triangle Top
SUP 4: $1.6244/51 Daily Bolli base, 55-DMA
COMMENTARY: Cable leaves a long lower shadow after bouncing from support ahead
of the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603 and July support line, still key support at
$1.6317/18. Bears target this level to break below while daily studies remain in
sell-mode, 10-day momentum looks to slip into negative territory and form a
sell-signal which would add further downside risk. However, failure to retest
July suppt line encourages bulls and could retest the $1.6603 reversal high.
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency got an early lift as the dollar and euro
retreated after Japanese stocks started the morning in negative territory.
Dollar-yen was holding near the early low of Y104.20 while euro-yen was near
Y142.02 at the start of the stock market session. Dollar-yen then recovered to
its initial highs of Y104.50 while the cross was also carried up to Y142.34 as
the Nikkei 225 pared some of the early losses. The rebound was shortlived and
dollar-yen and euro-yen both retreated again in the face of sell interest, this
time hitting session lows of Y104.17 and Y141.95. Although the Nikkei ended the
morning session lower, both dollar-yen and euro-yen recovered again during the
mid-session break, supported by talk of strong bids coming in at Y103.80, with
some saying these could be semi-official although there were also rumors of
stops below Y103.75, coming in ahead of the Y103.54 Kijun line, and more demand
at Y103.50. Dollar-yen and euro-yen then broke above the morning highs, to
Y104.63 and Y142.53, respectively, and last traded at Y104.57 with the cross at
Y142.32.
07-Jan-2014 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Holds Above Y104.00 But Downside Risks Remain
RES 4: Y105.88 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
RES 2: Y104.95/98 High Jan 6, Low Dec 30
RES 1: Y104.68 Daily Tenkan line
LATEST PRICE: Y104.53
SUP 1: Y104.08/15 Low Jan 3, 21-DMA
SUP 2: Y103.91 Low Jan 6
SUP 3: Y103.54/59 Daily Kijun line, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
SUP 4: Y102.95 High Dec 12
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds above the Y104.00 level where we note a convergence
of support - the 21-DMA is at Y104.15 and currently holds the downside. Just
below are the recent Jan 6 and 3 lows at Y103.91 and Y104.08, respectively. A
break below this level would target the daily Kijun line and 23.6% of
Y97.62-105.44 at Y103.54/59, however, failure to break the Y104.00 barrier
likely encourages bulls to retest the Y105.44 Jan 2 reversal high.
07-Jan-2014 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bears Eye Jan 6 Low While Studies Slide
RES 4: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
RES 3: Y143.60 Daily Tenkan line
RES 2: Y143.32 High Jan 3
RES 1: Y142.76/78 21-DMA, High Jan 6
LATEST PRICE: Y142.22
SUP 1: Y141.42/50 Low Dec 13, Low Jan 6
SUP 2: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
SUP 3: Y140.49 Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 4: Y140.16/20 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69, Oct 2005 high
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen slips back above the daily Kijun line despite bearish daily
studies and overbought weekly/monthly studies - bulls now look to break above
initial resistance to turn studies higher - initial res is at Y142.76/78, 21-DMA
and Jan 6 high. However, sentiment is to the downside and bears likely aim to
retest yesterday's low at Y141.50 and a break below targets key support just
below the Y141.00 level, then the daily Bolli base at Y140.49.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Tuesday lower, extending losses
seen in Monday's session. The Nikkei 225 lost 94.51 points, or 0.59%, to stand
at 15814.37. The broader-based TOPIX was lower by 9.02 points at 1283.13. Nikkei
market breadth saw 47 issues trade higher, 168 lower and 10 unchanged.
Preliminary total volume was 1.455 billion.
