Hello
Happy New Year 2014...
EUROPE: The last day of the year and the European calendar is very thin.
However, across the Atlantic, there is a fairly full calendar in the US. Early
data on the Continent sees the release of the French November housing starts and
building permits data at 0745GMT. The limited UK data sees the release of the
November Land Registry house price index.
EURO: The euro bounced to start the new week with the move higher pulling up
short of the rising 21 day upper Bollinger band ($1.3832). Initial support is
noted on the hourly time frame at the $1.3780 level with further support noted
at yesterday's low. Small stops are noted below $1.3780 and $1.3727. Key support
is found in the $1.3621-56 region with a close below needed to end bullish hopes
and see initial focus shift back to the $1.3485-20 region. The euro was last at
$1.3787.
31-Dec-2013
7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Holds Below Daily Bolli Band Top At $1.3830
RES 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
RES 3: $1.3939 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
RES 2: $1.3893 High Dec 27
RES 1: $1.3830/32 Daily Bolli band top, High Oct 28
LATEST PRICE: $1.3794
SUP 1: $1.3772 Rising channel base
SUP 2: $1.3743/52 5-DMA, 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3893
SUP 3: $1.3691/3713 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3665 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar tested above highs around $1.3811 to just below the
daily Bolli base which is part of initial res at $1.3830. The monthly resistance
line still key resistance at $1.3939 but failure to reach this level threatens a
retest of Nov 7 support line at $1.3691. Studies are mixed, we note daily
studies show potential to reverse higher but weekly/monthly studies add a little
caution as are near overbought - initial support is channel base at $1.3772.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3920 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3900 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
*$1.3894 Dec27 high (Europe)/$1.3896 61.8% $1.5144-1.1877
*$1.3845/55 Medium offers/$1.3847 NY high Friday;$1.3855 76.4% $1.3894-1.3728
*$1.3830 Medium offers/$1.3831 61.8% $1.3894-1.3728/Stops
*$1.3819 Dec30 high (NY)
*$1.3813 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3790 ***Current mkt rate 0620GMT Tuesday
*$1.3789 Int.Day low Asia, retested in Europe
*$1.3784-74 Medium demand/$1.3784-74 38.2%-50% $1.3728-1.3819
*$1.3765/60 Medium demand
*$1.3750 Medium demand
*$1.3728 Dec30 low (pullback low from $1.3894)
*$1.3725/15 Medium demand
*$1.3700 Minor demand
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.6510 after rate had eased away
from session highs of $1.6532 to $1.6490. Rate eased in opening Asian trade with
early trade contained within a $1.6485/00 range before slipping to $1.6477 into
the Asian afternoon, trading back above $1.6480 into Europe. Japan markets
closed today, reopening next Monday Jan6, made for subdued markets through the
overnight session, which had already been thinned by the upcoming New Year
holiday Wednesday. Euro-sterling was contained through Asia between
stg0.8361/73, the rate respecting Monday's high (at stg0.8373). Tech traders say
that daily cable studies remain constructive into 2014 though trade into the end
of this year sees cable meeting a counter due to 'usual' end month euro-sterling
demand. End month flows expected to provide some drive with markets thinned by
the afore mentioned holidays. Barclays end month model suggests we should see
'weak dollar sales' at today's fixings. Cable offers $1.6530/35 ahead of
$1.6550/55 and $1.6575/80. Support $1.6480/75 ahead of $1.6460/50. Euro-sterling
offers remain in place at stg0.8370/75 ahead of stg0.8390/00. Support stg0.8350.
31-Dec-2013
7:10
CABLE TECHS: Inside-Day Cautions Bulls While Studies Near O/B
RES 4: $1.6690 Double-bottom measured move target
RES 3: $1.6632/35 Weekly Bolli top, 200-month MA
RES 2: $1.6578 High Dec 27
RES 1: $1.6533 High Dec 30
LATEST PRICE: $1.6480
SUP 1: $1.6443/46 High Dec 2, 5-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6407 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6578
SUP 3: $1.6379 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.6302 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6578 & May 2012 high
COMMENTARY: Cable left an inside-day after failing to retest the high at $1.6578
and left a new high at $1.6533 which is now initial resistance. Weekly studies
have been in overbought territory since September and failure to retest the Dec
27 high at $1.6578 adds further downside pressure. However, monthly/daily
studies remain bullish, albeit also near overbought, a break above $1.6578
targets $1.6690 - the double bottom measured move target.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6650 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
*$1.6615/20 Strong offers/$1.6618 Monthly high Aug 2011
*$1.6600 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*$1.6580 Medium offers on approach
*$1.6577 Friday Dec27 high
*$1.6550/55 Medium offers
*$1.6532 Medium offers/Dec30 high (NY)
*$1.6510 Int.day high Asia
*$1.6478 ***Current market rate 0629GMT Tuesday
*$1.6476 Int.Day low Europe, $1.6477 Asia
*$1.6460-59 Dec30 low-Pullback low off $1.6577 Dec27
*$1.6450/45 Medium demand/$1.6440 Stops
*$1.6410/00 Medium demand
*$1.6380/70 Medium demand
*$1.6355/50 Medium demand
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8467 Tues Dec17 high/Strong offers on approach
*stg0.8435/40 Medium offers
*stg0.8415/20 Medium offers
*Stg0.8400/05 Strong offers
*stg0.8391 Friday Dec27 high
*stg0.8377 76.4% stg0.8391-30
*stg0.8373 Int.Day high Asia (NY high stg0.8373)
*stg0.8369 ***Current market rate 0647GMT Tuesday
*stg0.8361 Int.Day low Asia
*stg0.8350 Medium demand/stg0.8351 NY low Dec30
*stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/stg0.8330 Dec30 low/Stops
*stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
*stg0.8274 Dec4 low
*stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
*stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen opened the US session at Y105.20, after trading in a
tight Y105.11 to Y105.43 (new 5-year high) range o/n. In the wake of
disappointing Nov pending home sales, the pair breaks below o/n lows to test
Y105.05 before stalling. A second wave of selling into midday (as US Tsy yields
edged lower) sent dollar-yen to new intraday lows near Y104.98, but the pair
then nudged higher in early afternoon action topping out around Y105.14 before
stalling. Euro-yen opened at Y144.86 and made slow progress higher, peaking at
Y145.17 ahead of midday. Cross retraced modestly, but held the bulk of earlier
gains. Euro-yen peaked at 5-year highs near Y145.69 last Friday.
31-Dec-2013
7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fade From Y105.50 Adds Potential Reversal
RES 4: Y107.34 200-month MA
RES 3: Y106.72 3% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 2: Y106.41 Resistance line from August 1998
RES 1: Y105.41/50 High Dec 30, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
LATEST PRICE: Y105.03
SUP 1: Y104.87/89 Hourly low, Nov 7 support line
SUP 2: Y104.59 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y103.92 High Dec 13
SUP 4: Y103.57/61 23.6% of Y97.62-105.41, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen leaves a mini doji candle which has potential to form an
evening-star reversal pattern - bears require a break and close below Nov 7
support line at Y104.89 to confirm. We note daily studies also show potential to
reverse from overbought and further support is the daily Tenkan line at Y104.59.
However, bulls target the monthly resistance line from 1998 at Y106.41, but
first a break above key res around Y105.50 is required - the long-term 61.8%.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y106.39 Rising daily channel top
*Y106.20 Market stops
*Y106.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y105.80 Strong offers, stops
*Y105.50 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35/Option barrier
*Y105.43 Dec30-fresh 2013 high
*Y105.15 Int.Day high Asia
*Y104.96 ***Current market rate 0701GMT Tuesday
*Y104.85 Int.Day low Asia/US low Friday (Dec27)
*Y104.50 Demand on approach
*Y104.20 Medium demand
*Y104.14 24 Dec low
*Y104.00 Strong demand, stops
*Y103.80/75 Medium demand (Y103.78/77 - 19 & 23 Dec lows)
*Y103.70 Market stops
31-Dec-2013
7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Slips Back Below Y145.00 As Bears Eye Channel Base
RES 4: Y146.41 Nov 8 channel top
RES 3: Y145.69 High Dec 27
RES 2: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
RES 1: Y145.17/30 Dec 30 high, Daily Bolli band top
LATEST PRICE: Y144.76
SUP 1: Y144.14 Rising channel base
SUP 2: Y143.78 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
SUP 4: Y142.28 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen failed to retest Y145.69 and since slipped below Y145.00 -
the pair remains in a rising channel from Nov 8 low but bears now eye channel
base as initial support at Y144.14. A break below quickly runs into daily Tenkan
at Y143.78 and a slide from here could see sentiment and studies turn south. Key
support is 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69 at Y142.28 where bulls may regroup, however
monthly studies also overbought adding further downside pressure.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y147.00 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*Y146.85 Oct3 2008 high
*Y146.50 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
*Y146.00 Strong offers on approach/Barrier/Stops
*Y145.70/80 Strong offers/Stops
*Y145.69 Friday Dec27, fresh 2013 high
*Y145.30/35 Medium offers
*Y145.12 Int.Day high Asia/Y145.17 NY Dec30
*Y144.74 ***Current market price 0706GMT Tuesday
*Y144.66 Int.Day low Asia
*Y144.50 Medium demand
*Y144.25/20 Medium demand
*Y144.00 Strong demand/Stops
*Y143.85/80 Medium demand
*Y143.60/50 Strong demand
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9000 Strong offers, stops
*$0.8985/90 Medium offers
*$0.8980 Market stops ($0.8978 - 21-day ma)
*$0.8955/60 Medium offers, stops ($0.8958 - 23 Dec high)
*$0.8950 Medium offers
*$0.8905 Friday Dec27 high
*$0.8890 Minor offers
*$0.8850 Int.Day high Asia
*$0.8927 ***Current market price 0712GMT Tuesday
*$0.8920 Pullback low off $0.8950/Medium demand
*$0.8898 Int.Day low Asia
*$0.8880 Medium demand/$0.8878 61.8% $0.8834-0.8950
*$0.8834 Dec30 low
*$0.8825/20 Strong demand ($0.8822 - 18 Dec low)
*$0.8800 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen; Y104.50, Y104.75, Y105.00, Y105.65
* Euro-dollar; $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3720, $1.4000
* Aussie;
$0.8625(VL)
