1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
To juz jest ptotalnie poza moimi wyobrazeniami vco sie dzieje aktualnie, jedyne co mi sie nasuwa na mysl to realizacja zyskow. Jak nie wrocimy szybko gruba kreska ponizej 1.37 to moze byc roznie. A jak zobacze edka powyzej 1.38 to bede w takim szoku ze chyba odetne fx na dluzej
There is a very limited calendar Friday, with many market players looking to
bridge the holiday into the weekend.
The only data in Europe comes from France. At 0745GMT, the third quarter
Maastricht debt numbers will cross the wires, along with the November PPI
numbers.
Producer prices are seen down 0.1% on the month, down 1.2% on the year.
Helping to keep the screens turning over through the morning will be some
Brazilian data due for release at 1000GMT.
Data crossing the wire will include Brazil's December FGV IGP-M wholesale prices
and the December Central Bank/FGV Retail Confidence numbers.
There is little to excite across the Atlantic later in the day.
At 1530GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage data for the December 20 week will be
released, while the EIA Crude Oil Stock numbers for the same period will be
released at 1600GMT.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro opened in Asia at $1.3695 after a $1.3680 to $1.3700
range in the US last night. It bounced off an early $1.3687 low this morning and
was then carried up through $1.3700 amid rumored bids from an Asian account from
around $1.3650, dealers said. The pair marked a high of $1.3715 but then ran
into a lack of follow-through interest, which kept it below the Christmas Day
high of $1.3717. It however broke above late in the morning, taking out minor
stops above, and eventually marched to a $1.3722 high. It was last at $1.3713,
with a close above that $1.3717 high to shift the immediate focus back to the
$1.3811-32 region with a close at fresh 2013 highs needed to see the $1.4241 Oct
2011 monthly high become the focal point. On the downside, $1.3621 is seen as
pivotal with this level having previously capped attempts higher in late-Nov and
early-Dec. A close below this sees the focus turn to retests of the $1.3485-25
region with potential for a deeper correction that targets the $1.3295 Nov
monthly low.
EUR/USD: The break above the $1.3717 level that previously capped sees this
level now noted as initial support and the euro-dollar heading towards the
layers of resistance in the $1.3811-32 region. The 21 day upper Bollinger band
is currently seen around the $1.3821 level and given that closes above a rarity
any decent attempts higher may initially lack follow through if it tries to make
headway above the upper Bolli.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.3855 Momentum buy triggers expected
*$1.3850 Strong offers on approach, barrier, stops
*$1.3832 25 Oct & 2013 high
*$1.3820 Strong offers
*$1.3811 11 & 18 Dec highs
*$1.3800 Strong offers on approach
*$1.3775/80 Medium offers
*$1.3768 ***Current mkt rate 0704GMT Friday
*$1.3735/30 Minor demand
*$1.3717 Previous daily resistance now support
*$1.3700 Medium demand on approach
*$1.3692/88 21-day ma, Asia low
*$1.3659/55 Nov 7 support line, Dec 24 low
*$1.3650 Medium demand, light stops
*$1.3625 20 Dec low
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Thursday at $1.6415, euro-sterling at
stg0.8340. The rate lifted to intraday highs of $1.6438 in holiday-thinned
markets, before paring light gains to consolidate above $1.6400. Euro-sterling
bounced off 3 week lows of stg0.8329 and extended the recovery in tandem with
euro-dollar to close near session highs. Risk appetite continued in early Asia,
cable opened on a bid tone and spiked to $1.6430 in early dealings. Profit take
sales provided a counter, before the move met fresh demand in the dip taking the
rate to extended session highs of $1.6448. Offers ahead of $1.6450 capped the
topside as the pair held firm settling around $1.6440/45. A break opens strong
offers into $1.6480, techs behind at $1.6484 (18 Dec & 2013 high), ahead of the
$1.6500 barrier. Euro-sterling continued firm taking out stg0.8350 offers to
print highs of stg0.8358. Tech resistance is seen at stg0.8366 from the 21-day
ma, a break opens offers on approach stg0.8385/90. No UK data release scheduled
for today amid holiday thinned markets as we approach month/year end flow.
GBP/USD: The move higher sees the pair targeting a retest of the 2013 high with
a close above the current 2013 high seeing focus ratchet higher to the Aug 2011
monthly high at $1.6618. A close back below the $1.6397 level is needed to
relieve the immediate bullish focus while a close below the $1.6218 Dec 17 low
is needed to end bullish hopes and see immediate focus shift to retests of the
$1.6050 level. Daily tech studies have plenty of room to move topside.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
*$1.6580 Large stops
*$1.6571 22 Aug 11 high
*$1.6550 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*$1.6520 Large stops
*$1.6500 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*$1.6484 18 Dec & 2013 high
*$1.6480 Strong offers ($1.6478 - Intraday high)
*$1.6471 ***Current market rate 0718GMT Friday
*$1.6440/30 Minor demand
*$1.6410/00 Medium demand ($1.6405 - Asia low)
*$1.6392 5-day ma
*$1.6385/80 Medium demand
*$1.6367 21-day ma
*$1.6350 Demand on approach, light stops
*$1.6336 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*stg0.8450 Strong offers
*stg0.8435/40 Medium offers (stg0.8434 - 100-day ma)
*stg0.8415/20 Medium offers
*stg0.8406 55-day ma
*Stg0.8400 Strong offers
*stg0.8385/90 Medium offers (stg0.8389 - 23 Dec high)
*stg0.8365/66 Intraday high, 21-day ma
*stg0.8355 ***Current market rate 0727GMT Friday
*stg0.8339/29 Asia & 26 Dec lows
*stg0.8320 Strong demand, stops
*stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
*stg0.8274 Dec4 low
*stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
*stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
*stg0.8220 Large stops
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen started at Y104.73 in Asia today and then edged higher
through the morning while euro-yen started at Y143.41. Dollar-yen rose in early
trade following the release of a slew of month-end data, including CPI,
industrial output and retail sales. It flirted with the recent Y104.85 high, its
highest since Oct 2008, but initially hesitated to move through that amid
rumored offers fronting a Y105.00 barrier. But the gains soon overwhelmed that,
with dollar-yen taking out minor stops above Y105.00 for a high of Y105.04 so
far, its best since Oct 6, 2008, before the pair then backed away. Euro-yen also
gained in unison, peaking at Y143.94, also its best since Oct. 2008. Dollar-yen
held near the highs through the rest of the Asian morning, and was last at
Y104.83 while euro-yen was at Y143.75. Focus for dollar-yen now shifts to a
retest of the Y106.99 Sept 25 2008 high. Support is now noted at the Y104.63
previous 2013 high and Y104.41 level that capped recently with stops noted below
both of these levels. The Y103.78 support is seen as key with a close below
needed to relieve the renewed bullish pressure but overall back below Y102.50 is
needed to see focus shift lower once more.
USD/JPY: After repeated failures at the Y104.41 level the break to fresh 2013
highs for dollar-yen now sees the pair targeting the Y106.96 Sept 29 2008 high.
The 21 day upper Bollinger band comes in around Y105.09 today and it should be
noted that closes above are rare so caution should be shown as spikes above the
upper Bolli may lack follow through. A close below the Y103.78 level is needed
to shift focus lower and hint at a deeper correction.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y106.39 Rising daily channel top
*Y106.20 Market stops
*Y106.00 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y105.80 Strong offers, stops
*Y105.50 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35
*Y105.15/20 Strong offers, stops (Y105.15 - 6 Oct 08 high)
*Y105.03 Intraday high
*Y104.65 ***Current market rate 0742GMT Friday
*Y104.50 Demand on approach
*Y104.46/41 5-day ma, Previous daily resistance now support
*Y104.20 Medium demand
*Y104.14 24 Dec low
*Y104.00 Strong demand, stops
*Y103.80/75 Medium demand (Y103.78/77 - 19 & 23 Dec lows)
*Y103.70 Market stops
EUR/JPY: The strong move above Y142.90 that previously capped sees overall focus
shift higher to tests of the 146.46-80 region which represents the rising daily
channel top and Oct 3 2008 high. Initial support is now noted at the Y142.90
previous key resistance with the rising daily channel base now coming in above
this level and a close below Y142.90 needed to ease the immediate bullish
pressure. Note that closes above the 21 day upper Bollinger band are a rarity.
EURO-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*Y145.50 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y145.20 Market stops
*Y145.00 Offers on approach barrier stops
*Y144.80 Strong offers, stops
*Y144.50 Offers on approach, barrier, stops
*Y144.39 Daily Bollinger band top
*Y144.24 Intraday high
*Y144.07 ***Current market price 0748GMT Friday
*Y143.85/80 Minor demand
*Y143.60/50 Medium demand
*Y143.26/14 Daily channel base, 5-day ma
*Y143.10/00 Medium demand on approach
*Y142.90 Previous daily resistance, now support
*Y142.50 Strong demand, light stops
*Y142.26 Daily Tenkan line
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Friday higher. The Nikkei 225
gained 4.50 points, or 0.03%, to stand at 16178.94. The broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 5.75 points at 1285.08. Nikkei market breadth saw 112 issues trade
higher, 96 lower and 17 unchanged. Total volume was 1.26 billion.
AUSSIE SUMMARY: A muted session for aussie-dollar so far this morning in Asia,
with many traders in the region still preferring to sit on the sidelines as the
year nears its close. The aussie traded between $0.8877 and $0.8905 through the
morning
today, almost exactly matching last night's $0.8876 to $0.8901 US trading range.
It opened at $0.8899 but found little encouragement for a decisive attempt to
rally through $0.8900, amid rumors of offers at $0.8930, just above yesterday's
$0.8929 high, with more sell orders then seen in the $0.8950/60 region ahead.
Aussie-dollar last trades at $0.8889 with stops noted above $0.8935, $0.8960 and
more importantly above the $0.8994 resistance with a close above this level
needed to relieve the overall bearish focus that is initially targeting a retest
of the 2013 lows and then a test of the $0.8762-71 region. Above $0.8994 would
see immediate focus shift higher to to the $0.9167 level.
AUSSIE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
*$0.9020 Strong offers, stops
*$0.9000 Strong offers, stops ($0.8993 - 21-day ma)
*$0.8985/90 Medium offers
*$0.8980 Market stops
*$0.8955/60 Medium offers, stops ($0.8958 - 23 Dec high)
*$0.8950 Medium offers
*$0.8929 Intraday high
*$0.8922 ***Current market price 0750GMT Friday
*$0.8900 Minor demand on approach
*$0.8877 Intraday low
*$0.8855/50 Strong demand ($0.8855 - 20 Dec low)
*$0.8825/20 Strong demand ($0.8822 - 18 Dec low)
*$0.8800 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*$0.8780 Large stops
*$0.8771 25 Oct low
