1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Albo hedzujesz, albo masz ttttaaaaaaakkkkkkkiiiiiiieeeeee jaja
Bemowo jak ktoś nie ma jaj to nie powinien sie tykać żadnych rynków ! Nawet Bazarów
Co do mojej sytuacji z edkiem to i tak licze ,że jeszcze sobie podskoczy , dzisiaj przesunąłem znowu wyżej stoplossy i mysle , że bedą to próbowali jeszcze ciągnać,ogolnie to już dziwne miejsce i pora na dobierani pozycji.Skośne pewnie bedą nocami podbijac sobie troche znowu korzuystając. Patrząc na SP500 ciągle dochodze do przekonania , że to już powoli moment , w którym historia znowu zatoczy krąg , długo im już nie daje czasu na zabawe , wiec rozglądałem sie nadjakimiś papierami odnośnie Ski , jest kilka ciekawych na rynku z niedrogą opcją przechowania tego , myśle o 2014. O złocie także. Fizyczne złoto już cena giełdowa +10-15% wiec czuć powoli presje.
Podobna atmosfera jest też na GPW u nas , powoli czuje sie , że wszyscy zaczynaja sie rozgladac gdzie przenosić aktywa. Moim zdaniem przy następnym zawaleniu sie giełdy złotym strzałem bedą wirtualne waluty jak bit , czy lite Dlatego przenosze tam czesc aktywów i chłone sporo technicznej wiedzy i próbuje sie dowiedziec kto inwestuje.
Ogolnie tendencja jest taka ,ze z każdym następnym tąpnieciem coraz wiecej ludzi z coraz wiekszej ilości gałęzi gospodarki będzie cierpiało bo korelacje już są olbrzymie, dlatego na prawde radze powoli rozglądać sie już za czymś co ochroni wasze pieniążki i powoli przetrwać i wyjść z obronną ręką z tego , wszak na kryzysie też trzeba zarabiać.Generalnie zauwazyłem bardzo duży sentyment narastający do wszelkiego rodzaju pamiątek z PRL więc zaczynam masowe ich wykupowanie. ( Spotkanie po 25 latach z amigą skonczyło sie nocą wyciętą z życiorysu) Do tego analizując archiwum allegro , doszedłem do wniosku , ze to idealny moment na wykupowanie samochodów z lat 70 i 80 , znikają w zastraszającym tempie z rynku,a ceny są super jako lokata.Wiekszość ludzi ,która w dziecinstwie marzyła o nich zaczyna się dorabiać więc bedą ich szukać , zeby sobie to odkupić. W dobrych cenach też są zaraz po nowym roku na pewno będą wina , to taki okres przestoju dla nich także też spróbuje coś ustrzelić fajnego.
Generalnie powoli zaczynam się "pakować" i wyprowadzać od giełd żeby przeczekać , hossa na GPW i tak po raz kolejny dała więcej niż poprzednio i pewnie następny raz także będzie wiekszy , ale nie kusze już losu tam
Pozdrawiam panów i panie , żaby i inne gady i tańczące kurczaki
I Ciapula , wszak Ciapul też człowiek czasem
Dlugoterminowo, zgodnie z prognozami z listopada, aktualne cele i otwarte pozycje to nadal:
- Kabel - 1.71 - styczen/luty
- Edek - 1.41 - styczen/luty
DT
- pozycja krotka na kablu od 1.645 - spodziewany target dzis to 1.639.
-- Dodano: wt 10-12-2013, 7:59 --
Odnośnie tego co napisał krinvest. W pełni się zgadzam, to tylko kwestia czasu kiedy historia zatoczy krąg na indeksach amerykańskich. Tyle, że druga fala będzie większa i się wszyscy zesramy jak już się skończą bawić.
Kusus pisze:Dlugoterminowo, zgodnie z prognozami z listopada, aktualne cele i otwarte pozycje to nadal:
- Kabel - 1.71 - styczen/luty
- Edek - 1.41 - styczen/luty
DT
- pozycja krotka na kablu od 1.645 - spodziewany target dzis to 1.639.
-- Dodano: wt 10-12-2013, 7:59 --
Odnośnie tego co napisał krinvest. W pełni się zgadzam, to tylko kwestia czasu kiedy historia zatoczy krąg na indeksach amerykańskich. Tyle, że druga fala będzie większa i się wszyscy zesramy jak już się skończą bawić.
Wczoraj patrzylem na prognozy na tabele z prognozami bankow/instytucji/analitykow lacznie z 30 pozycji, i najwyzsza opcja jaka zakladaja w przeciagu tygodnia to 1.39 (garstka) reszta zaklada 1.38-1.34 w ciagu miesiaca 3/4 zaklada min. 1.35 i w ciagu 1Q ok. 1.31, na kablu maxy jakie widzialem to 1.66, ale raczej wiekszosc prognozuje 1.60~ zobaczymy. Jak by ktos pytal to gdzies na fxstreet, i na efxnews tez barclays wrzucil swoje wypociny
Na edku zlapalo mi 1.3760 (ustawilem sobie na noc pod skosnych tak liczylem na jakas podbitke ale 1.3770 ze prawie zrobili to jestem w szoku)
EUROPE: The markets continue to trade in fairly narrow ranges in Europe as year
end approaches. However, the calendar has a fairly full status. The European
calendar gets underway from 0745GMT, with the release of the French October
industrial output data. At 0900GMT, Italian October industrial production data
and third quarter GDP numbers will cross the wires. At 1200GMT, ECB President
Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at a conference in memory of Curzio Giannini,
in Rome. ECB Governing Council member Inacio Visco will also speak at some point
in the day.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Dec 10 ECB Draghi speaks at a conference in memory of Curzio Giannini
- Dec 10 ECB Visco speaks at conference in memory of Curzio Giannini, in Rome
- Dec 10 ECOFIN meeting
- Dec 10 Italy Q3 GDP data (2nd estimate)
- Dec 10 Spain sells 6-/12-month T-bills for up to E4.5bln
- Dec 11 Italy sells 12-month T-bill for up to E5.5bkn
- Dec 11 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
- Dec 12 ECB monthly report
- Dec 12 Italy mid-month BTP auction cancelled
- Dec 13 Slovenian bank stress test results due
- Dec 13 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Dec 16 IMF to publish preliminary results on Spanish bank review
- Dec 17 German Dec ZEW business survey
- Dec 17 Spain sells 3-/9-month T-bills
- Dec 19/20 European Council meeting
UK: There is a slew of UK data expected at 0930GMT, including October industrial
production, October trade data and November BOE quoted rates. Most analysts
expect industrial production expanded again on the month in October, albeit at a
slower rate than seen in September after a weak reading in August. The
manufacturing sector is still around 9% smaller than it was before the financial
crisis hit, whereas the larger services sector has now made up the ground it
lost during the recession. Other private sector surveys have shown manufacturing
expanded strongly into Q4 after National Statistics data showed manufacturing
output rose 0.9% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same rate of growth as seen in
Q2. The PMI readings for the sector have been strong. Trade data for October
will hopefully show some improvement after a poor performance in the third
quarter, when overall trade was a significant drag on GDP growth. Even so,
exports may well struggle to improve given the weak demand from the struggling
Eurozone, Britain's main export partner.
EURO SUMMARY: The euro opened at $1.3739 this morning, after a $1.3714 to
$1.3746 US trading range overnight. Euro-dollar spent the early hours of the
session today in a lackluster $1.3735 to $1.3745 range. Around mid-morning,
trade activity picked up a bit as the dollar lost a bit of ground vs the
Japanese yen and aussie, and dealers then took aim at some euro-dollar stop-loss
buy orders. Euro-dollar edged up through $1.3745 and tripped over a number of
stops when it broke above $1.3750. It subsequently jumped to a $1.3768 high,
which marks the highest level since Oct 30. Euro-dollar last traded at $1.3754.
There are more buy stops ahead should $1.3770 give way, while offers are then
seen beyond, near that Oct. 30 high of $1.3785. On the downside, stops remain
below $1.3675 with a close below needed that level to ease the current bullish
pressure while a close below the $1.3621 breakout level from last week is needed
to shift overall focus lower once more.
10-Dec-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key Res at $1.3777; Bulls Eye Oct 28 Reversal High
RES 4: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
RES 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
RES 2: $1.3793 High Oct 23
RES 1: $1.3775/77 Low Oct 25, Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
LATEST PRICE: $1.3760
SUP 1: $1.3734 Hourly low
SUP 2: $1.3681/92 Reversal high Apr 2007, 5-DMA
SUP 3: $1.3650/60 Channel base, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
SUP 4: $1.3637 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar stretches further to the upside as bulls target the Oct
28 high at $1.3832, however daily studies are increasingly overbought adding a
little downside risk. Failure to retest $1.3832 could see the pair collapse -
channel base is at $1.3650 and break below here targets the Nov 7 support line
at $1.3535. However, weekly studies are turning higher and a break above the Oct
28 high could target the long-term resistance line from July 2008 at $1.3939.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.3850 Strong offers/Option barrier
$1.3835 Stops
$1.3830/35 Strong offers/$1.3833 61.8% $1.4940 May'11-1.2042 Jul'12/Oct25 high
$1.3810/20 Medium offers
$1.3800 Medium offers on approach/Stops
$1.3780/85 Medium offers/monthly cloud top $1.3777
$1.3770 Medium offers/Stops
$1.3768 Int.Day high Asia (posted early Wellington)
$1.3749 ***Current mkt rate 0631GMT Tuesday
$1.3747 Pullback low off $1.3768; 61.8% $1.3734-68
$1.3734 Int.Day low Asia
$1.3725/20 Medium demand
$1.3694 Monday Dec9 low
$1.3685/80 Medium demand
$1.3670 Medium demand
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY Monday at $1.6428 after rate had extended
its recovery off earlier Asian lows of $1.6316 to a high of $1.6433, seen in the
NY afternoon. Cable consolidated this late move in early Asian trade with early
business transacted between $1.6420/30. Stops in euro-dollar and euro-yen were
targeted at $1.3750-55 and Y142.00 respectively, which in turn provided the
momentum for cable to move through its recent highs of $1.6437-43 to take out
the barrier at $1.6450 and extend on to $1.6466. The corrective pullback found
support at the broken $1.6450 level before rate extended the topside to $1.6468
Asian afternoon trade. Rate was trading around $1.6456 into Europe.
Euro-sterling was held within a tight stg0.83545/0.8365 range, trading around
stg0.8357 into Europe. Investment flows into year end appear to be the
underlying driving force for the euro and sterling. In the UK today we have
mfg/IP data at 0930GMT. Traders note that these are the first data to reflect Q4
growth, this after BOE Carney last night gave an upbeat speech on growth and
productivity, though signalled a rate hike not any time soon. Cable offers seen
placed between $1.6470/80 ahead of next barrier at $1.6500. Support $1.6410/00.
10-Dec-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: New High Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: $1.6585 Weekly Bollinger band top
RES 3: $1.6527 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
RES 1: $1.6471 High July 2011
LATEST PRICE: $1.6462
SUP 1: $1.6401/04 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
SUP 2: $1.6358 High Nov 28
SUP 3: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
SUP 4: $1.6301 Low Dec 5
COMMENTARY: Cable pops above recent high of Dec 2 at $1.6443 and may continue to
stretch further to the upside while tech studies also stretch into overbought
territory, which should limit moves to the upside. Next key resistance seen at
$1.6496 - the June 2011 reversal high and ahead of here is July 2011 high at
$1.6471. Break above could see bulls test the daily Bolli top at $1.6527,
however failure adds downside pressure - new 23.6% seen at $1.6322.
CABLE: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals),
$1.6550 Medium offers
$1.6520/30 Medium offers
$1.6500 Strong offers on approach/Barrier
$1.6496 Jun 2011 highs
$1.6470-80 Medium offers
$1.6468 Int.Day high Asia
$1.6447 ***Current market rate 0633GMT Tuesday
$1.6444 50% $1.6420-68/$1.6443 broken resistance
$1.6420 Int.Day low Asia
$1.6410/00 Medium demand/$1.6410 38.2% $1.6316-1.6468
$1.6375/70 Medium demand
$1.6355/50 Medium demand/$1.6352 76.4% $1.6316-1.6468
$1.6316 Monday Dec9 low
$1.6300/290 Medium demand/$1.6294 Dec6 NFP react low
EURO-STERLING: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
stg0.8475/80 Medium offers on approach/stg0.8476 61.8% stg0.8585-0.8300
stg0.8464 Weds Nov13 high (seen in Asia)
stg0.8440 Medium offers
stg0.8415/20 Strong offers/stg0.8414 76.4% stg0.8464-0.8252/Stops
stg0.8395/400 Strong offers
stg0.8380/85 Medium offers
stg0.8365 Int.Day high Asia
stg0.8357 ***Current market rate 0723GMT Tuesday
stg0.83545 Int.Day low Asia
stg0.8350/45 Medium demand/stg0.8348 Dec6 low
stg0.8330/20 Strong demand/Stops
stg0.8300/290 Medium demand
stg0.8274 Dec4 low
stg0.8260/50 Strong demand/stg0.8258 Dec3 low/stg0.8252 Dec2 low
stg0.8250 Option barrier/Strong demand ahead
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency started the session facing persistent
weakness after dollar-yen peaked at Y103.32 last night in the US. The pair
opened at Y103.26 today while euro-yen started at Y141.88, after a Y141.94 high
in the US overnight. Yen pairs showed little reaction to this morning's MOF
business outlook survey but eased a bit after Japanese stocks opened lower.
Dollar-yen slipped to Y103.22 while the cross dipped to Y141.83 from around
Y141.96. Dollar-yen however rebounded as the cross also caught a further lift
after that, with euro-yen then trading above Y142.00 for the first time since
October 2008, for a high of Y142.03. Dollar-yen was carried through rumored
offers at Y103.30 and then triggered stops above Y103.35, reaching a Y103.40
high, its highest since May 22, before it was then turned back in the face of
decent-sized selling interest ahead of a Y103.50 barrier. Dollar-yen was last at
Y103.21 while euro-yen was last at Y142.07. The overall focus for dollar-yen
remains firmly on retests of the Y103.73 2013 high traded in May.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Tuesday higher. The Nikkei 225
gained 38.90 points, or 0.25%, to stand at 15611.31. The broader-based TOPIX was
higher by 1.69 points at 1257.01. Nikkei market breadth saw 92 issues trade
higher, 107 lower and 26 unchanged. Total volume was 1.033 billion.
10-Dec-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Break Above Y103.38 Targets Y103.74/78
RES 4: Y104.32 Rising channel top
RES 3: Y103.98 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
RES 1: Y103.38 High Dec 3
LATEST PRICE: Y103.30
SUP 1: Y102.96 Nov 8 channel base
SUP 2: Y102.51 Daily Tenkan line
SUP 3: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
SUP 4: Y101.53/64 Reversal high Jul 8, Low Dec 6
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen inches toward the Dec 3 high at Y103.38 and bulls look to
retest this level and burst above to the daily Bolli band top at Y103.97. But
ahead of Bolli top is the key May and June 2012 reversal highs at Y103.74/78.
However, studies are firmly in overbought territory and failure to break the Dec
3 high adds downside risk. The rising channel base is seen at Y102.96 and below
here targets the daily Tenkan line at Y102.51 followed by the 23.6% at Y102.02.
DOLLAR-YEN: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
Y104.50 Barrier
Y104.00 Strong offers/Barrier/Stops
Y103.70/80 Strong offers/Y103.73 2013 high (May22)
Y103.60 Medium offers/Stops
Y103.50 Strong Offers on approach/Barrier
Y103.40 Strong offers(Y103.38-40 offers seen on EBS)/System stops
Y103.39 Int.Day high Asia
Y103.37 ***Current market rate 0708GMT Tuesday
Y103.17 Medium demand
Y103.10/00 Medium demand/Stops
Y102.80 Medium demand/Stops
Y102.72 5-DMA
Y102.45 Early Monday low Dec9
Y102.20/10 Area of lows Friday Dec6
10-Dec-2013 7:40
EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Eye Close Above Y142.00 Despite O/B Studies
RES 4: Y143.24 Potential measured move target
RES 3: Y143.13 4% 21-DMA envelope top
RES 2: Y142.63 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 1: Y142.12 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y141.97
SUP 1: Y141.21 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
SUP 2: Y140.69 Weekly Bollinger band top
SUP 3: Y140.20/21 Oct 2005 high, Daily Tenkan
SUP 4: Y140.03 High Dec 3
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen pressures higher after holding above Y141.00 level and
already edged above Y142.00 to a high at Y142.12. Bulls look to close above to
test daily Bolli top at Y142.63 and we note the upside channel breakout still
targets a measured move to Y143.24. However, studies remain firmly in overbought
territory and further upside gains are likely limited - failure to close above
Y142.00 could see sentiment reverse - channel top is support at Y141.21.
