1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: At 0900GMT, the ECB publishes the January Monthly Bulletin, which will
largely be a repeat of ECB President Draghi's press conference opening
statement. At 1000GMT, the EMU November construction output numbers will
cross the wires. Also due Thursday, although no time is scheduled, is
the fourth quarter 2012 Norges Bank Lending Survey. From 1900GMT,
Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret speaks on "The Stability of the
European Financial System and the Real Economy in the Shadow of the
Crisis," in Dresden.
ITALY: Italian PM Monti's popularity and chances of forming the next government
are slipping, the FT notes, as the public are increasingly blaming him for the
prolonged recession.
UK: Only modest UK data is scheduled for release, with the December SMMT car
production numbers expected. The data is closely watched, following
mixed messages from producers in recent days. Honda has announced up to
800 job losses due to slow demand in Europe, whereas Jaguar Landrover
has said it will up both employment and production levels due to solid
China demand.
UK PRESS: UK Business Secretary Vince Cable s to say in a speech Thursday that
continued debate of UK EU membership is causing concenr and could impact inward
investment, the FT reports.
UK PRESS: Many UK commercial property developers face higher funding costs due
to increased capital rules on banks, the FT says, with the likely result a fall
in the number of infrastructure projects being started.
UK PRESS: The latest survey for the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising
shows a net 1.1% of companies increased marketing spend in the 4th quarter of
2012, giving a boost to hopes the UK could avoid a triple-dip recession, the
Independent reports.
US: US data gets under way from 1330GMT, with the
release of Jobless Claims for the Jan 12 week and the Housing Starts, Building
Permits data for December. The level of initial claims is expected to fall 1,000 to 370,000 in the January
12 employment survey week after rising by 4,000 in each of the previous two
week. Some disruptions early in the year make the data somewhat suspect, but it
is clear that there has been some upward movement since early December to bring
claims back in line with their pre-hurricane levels. Claims were at a level of
362,000 in the December 15 employment survey week.
The pace of housing starts is expected to rebound to a 890,000 annual rate after
falling 3.0% in November. Permits rose in November and the NAHB index climbed
further in December, positive signs for housing starts.
The Bloomberg Comfort Index for the Jan 12 week will be released at 1345GMT.
At 1500GMT, the January Phillidelphia Fed Survey is expected. The Philly Fed
index is expected to rise to a reading of 6.0 in January after see-sawing in
November and December following Hurricane Sandy.
At 1530GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Stocks for the January 12 week are released.
At 1700GMT, the US Treasury releases the dealer agenda, questions ahead of the
February quarterly refunding.
Central bank speakers are to the fore later in the session. At 1705GMT, Atlanta
Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart gives an interview at a business
forum in New York.
US PRESS: The latest casualty on the UK high street is Blockbuster, the UK-arm
of the video rental chain, with the group calling in the administrators on Weds,
the Telegraph reports.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3291 after rate had recovered off session lows
of $1.3257 to $1.3311 before settling between $1.3275/00 through to the close.
Euro-dollar trade mainly dictated by cross plays, with this scenario carrying
across to Asian dealing Thursday, the rate edging to a high of $1.3315 as it
tracked early euro-yen demand, then dropped back to $1.3270 during the Asian
afternoon. Recovery to $1.3287 ahead of the European open aided by euro-yen
positive reaction to Japan Amari comments that he found it regrettable that his
recent yen comments had been misinterpreted. Euro-dollar offers seen at
$1.3325/30, some linked to gamma plays, with corporate sellers noted behind
between $1.3350/70. Support $1.3260/50, with minor stops noted through
$1.3245/40. Further demand then seen into $1.3220 ahead of $1.3200. A fairly
light data calendar for this morning, main interest to be on Spain bond auction
at 0930GMT (3-yr, 5-yr, 30-yr). Afternoon interest to focus on US weekly jobless
claims and housing data at 1330GMT, with Phila Fed at 1500GMT. Expect continued
cross plays to provide euro-dollar direction, with range of $1.3250/1.3330
expected to contain.
EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3395/405 Strong offers/Mon Jan14 high $1.3404
$1.3350/70 Medium offers/Corporate sell interest
$1.3320/30 Strong offers/small stops mixed in above $1.3320; stop buy entry
$1.3330
$1.3315 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3282 ***Current mkt rate 0747GMT Thursday
$1.3270 Int.Day low Asia/Medium demand
$1.3260/50 Strong demand/$1.3257 Weds Jan16 low
$1.3245/40 Stops
$1.3240/20 Medium demand dotted between
$1.3200/190 Medium demand
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6007 after rate had recovered off pressured lows of
$1.5975 to $1.6015, the rate edging back up from a late corrective pullback to
$1.5982 into the close. Cable squeezed down to $1.5992 in early Asia before
recovering to $1.6018, where it met decent resistance placed into $1.6020. Cable
drifted off highs, trading to a session low of $1.5982 as yen gains dictated
moves. Cable recovered in late Asia, moving up to $1.6008 into early Europe as
yen pairs spiked higher on Japan Amari saying he regretted recent comments on
the strength of the yen had be misinterpreted. Rate currently seen in a range of
$1.5970-1.6030 with a break of either side to determine next direction. Short
term studies suggest rate could try and correct recent losses though longer term
studies keep further downside potential in view. A break of $1.6030 to open a
move toward $1.6050/55 ahead of $1.6080. Through $1.5970 opens potential for
$1.5915, with $1.5950 providing interim support. Euro-sterling maintained its
break back above stg0.8300, seen in NY trade Wednesday, with trade in Asia
contained within stg0.8300/16. This rate seen within a range of
stg0.8265/60-0.8325/30.
YEN: A late Asia comment from Japan Amari regretting that recent comments
warning on the effects of a weakening yen had been misinterpreted prompted a
spike up from Y88.35 to Y88.70, the move up greeted by Japanese lifer supply
which eased it back to Y88.53. Euro-yen, which had been a main driver of Asian
trade through the earlier part of the session was hiked up from Y117.34 to just
shy of Y118.00. Earlier in the Asian session the rate had pushed up from an
opening level of Y117.48 to Y118.20 before it dropped down to Y117.01 with macro
sales providing the initial shove lower. Dollar-yen had seen early highs of
Y88.80 before it dropped back to Y88.14, in line with the cross, the rate
opening into Europe around Y88.60. Traders note this recovery in yen pairs but
most still see room for a deeper corrective pullback, possibly back between
Y87.00-86.50, before we see another decent push higher.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended the day higher,
sharply off the mid afternoon lows, rallying as the yen weakened in late trade.
The Nikkei 225 was up 9.20 points, or 0.09%, at 10609.64. The broader-based
TOPIX was up 2.35 points at 890.46.
JAPAN STOCKS: The Nikkei 225 Index ends Thursday up 0.09% at 10,609.64.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading around unchanged levels Thursday
after closing flat the previous day. Spot gold ended Wednesday's session
at $1679.95/oz, up a fraction from the previous close of $1679.45/oz.
Gold prices continue to trade in consolidation mode, with no fresh
catalyst seen, in recent sessions, to drive the precious metal
convincingly in either direction. A recovery from the sharp declines
observed from the Fed minutes earlier this month is expected to continue
as prices draw some moderate support from physical demand ahead of the
Lunar New Year holidays. Spot gold price action has been fairly limited
so far this week, with today's release of US jobless claims, due at
1330GMT, the main thing of note for gold prices. The level of initial
claims is expected to fall 1,000 to 370,000 in the January 12 employment
survey week after rising by 4,000 in each of the previous two weeks.
Spot gold prices have remained in a narrow range so far this morning,
slipping from an initial high of $1681.15 to lows of $1676.65 and now
trade almost unchanged at $1680/oz.
OIL: March NYMEX WTI prices are trading lower Thursday after posting
gains of around 1% during the previous day. March WTI futures ended
Wednesday's session 96 cents higher at $94.68 a barrel, after trading in
a $93.55 to $94.80 range. Prices were underpinned by an EIA data report
that showed an unexpected decline of 951,000 barrel decline in crude
stocks for the week ending Jan 11. News that Islamist extremists took
foreign hostages in an early-morning attack on a gas field in Algeria
lent further support to petroleum products, traders said. That conflict,
said to be in retaliation for French intervention in Mali, remains
unresolved. March WTI prices have edged moderately lower during Asian
traded hours this morning, slipping from an initial intra-day high of
$94.69 a barrel to hold at lows of $94.26 and the market now trades at
$94.44 a barrel, down 24 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX February natural gas prices are trading in negative
territory Thursday, extending their losses from the previous day.
February natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session down 2 cents at
$3.435 per million British thermal units (mln Btu) after trading in a
$3.364 to $3.457 range. Prices posted their first day of losses for five
sessions after becoming subject to some moderate profit taking ahead of
today's EIA Natural Gas Storage Report for the January 12 week, due to
be published later today at 1530GMT. Weather patterns still suggest that
cold air intrusions are going to continue over the next six to ten days.
Private forecaster MDA Weather Services said on Wednesday that the big
picture in its six to ten day outlook still pointed to widespread cold
across the eastern half of the US, with the coldest air of the season
expected to hit the Midwest and East. Despite the colder forecasts,
February natural gas prices have edged lower this morning, paring back
from an initial high of $3.445 to lows of $3.398 posted a few moments
ago and now trade at $3.401 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: France and Spain come to the sovereign bond market Thursday,
where total issuance in the eurozone this week is now estimated to be E25.7bln
after Italy priced its E6.0bln syndicated new 15-year BTP bond on Tuesday.
France plans to issue a new 5-year benchmark 1.00% Mar 2018 OAT and re-open
2.50% Jan 2015 BTAN and 3.75% Apr 2017 OAT for between E7.0bln and E8.0bln. In
addition, France also conducts its linker sales -- re-open 0.25% 0.25% July 2018
OATei, 1.30% July 2019 OATi, 1.85% July 2027 OATei for between E1.3bln-E1.7bln.
Also on Thursday, Spain taps its 3.75% 2015 Bono, 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono, 4.70%
July 2041 Obligaciones bonds for between E3.5bln-E4.5bln. So far, Germany sold
a new 10-year benchmark 1.50% Feb 2023 Bund on Wednesday for E5.0bln. However,
this supply is outweighed by redemption payment from the Netherlands for
E15.54bln and coupon from the Netherlands E3.9bln, France E0.6bln, Italy
E0.4bln, Ireland E0.3bln and Austria E0.6bln -- leaving net cash flow negative
to the tune of E4.4bln vs -E0.5bln last week. For full details of forthcoming
issues, please see Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow
Matrix.
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico taps its benchmark 3-year 3.75%
Oct 2015 Bono, 5-year 4.50% Jan 2018 Bono and 30-year 4.70% July 2041
Obligaciones bonds Thursday for between E3.5bln-E4.5bln indicative size. The
auction comes following strong 12-/18-month T-bill sale Tuesday, where the
Tesoro sold more than indicated -- just like last week's 2015-/2018-/2026 bond
sales and also despite warning from Fitch ratings that Spain rating is at "risk
of downgrade even if it manages to avoid a rescue package". Fitch's BBB (neg)
rating of Spain is lagging both S&P rating at BBB- (neg) and Moody's Baa3 (neg).
Spanish bonds have underperformed in recent sessions with 10-year yield back
above 5.00% level as market remains wary of a new syndicated 10-year benchmark
Bono ahead of the E14.29bln Obligaciones redemption due on Jan 31. For
comparison purposes the 3.75% 2015 Bono was last sold on Dec 13 for E680mln at
average yield of 3.36%, cover 4.81. The 4.50% 2018 Bono was last sold on Jan 10
for E1.95bln at avg yield 3.988%, cover 2.59. As far as the 4.70% 2041
Obligaciones is concerned, this is the first re-opening of this issue since May
2011 and therefore not comparable. Auction results are due around 0940GMT.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jan 17 Spain sells 2015-/2018-/2041 bonds for up to E4.5bln
- Jan 17 Ireland sells new 3-month T-bill for E500mln
- Jan 17 Portugal PM Coelho meets French PM Ayrault,French President Hollande
- Jan 17 German EconMin Roesler govt declaration in parl on growth outlook
- Jan 17 ECB publishes Jan Monthly Bulletin
- Jan 17 IMF Largarde speaks on economic policy priorities in year ahead
- Jan 18 EU Juncker to meet Dutch FinMin Dijsselbloem
- Jan 18 Spain T-bill redemption for E5.395bln
- Jan 18 Italy former PM Berlusconi speaks on Canale 5 tv
- Jan 18 Portugal T-bill redemption for E1.266bln
- Jan 18 Greek T-bill redemption for E2.0bln
- Jan 18 Bank of Portugal monthly economic indicators report
- Jan 20 German Lower Saxony election
- Jan 21 Eurogroup meeting
- Jan 21 Ireland T-bill redemption for E500mln
Ostatnio zmieniony 17 sty 2013, 08:48 przez niemiaszek, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
??
