1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
obudziłem sie tuz przed "grecja" i jestem na sell po cenie 1.2778 i druga pozycja 1.2775 ,to moze byc niezły tydzien,sl 1.2782 moze nie wytnie,ide dalej spac
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
EUROPE: Central banks return to the fore Thursday, with the highlights
likely to be the policy decisions from both the Bank of England and the
ECB. Ahead of the central bank announcements, there is a full calendar
of speakers and data releases. At 0700GMT, Germany's September trade
balance numbers are released, followed by French Sept foreign trade
numbers at 0745GMT. Following on from the minutes released Weds,
Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves is to participate in an open hearing on
monetary policy with a Riksdag Committee, in Stockholm, expected at
0800GMT. At 0900GMT, French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici to
participate in a discussion entitled "Can We Foresee Ruptures and
Crises" at the JECO conference, in Lyon. Norges Bank Governor Oeystein
Olsen to give lecture at the Norwegian University of Science and
Technology, in Trondheim, also at 0900GMT.
At 1245GMT, the ECB is set to announce its policy rate decision, to be
followed at 1330GMT by President Mario Draghi's press conference.
With the financial market situation somewhat more becalmed in the weeks
and months since his OMT announcement, the focus of markets has shifted
back to economic fundamentals. Further sluggish data from the core this
week, along with Draghi comments Weds, further underline the fragility
of the economy.
GREECE: Money owed to the Greek tax office is "sioaring" eKathimerini
reports. According to the website, tax debts stood at E10.7 bn as end of
Sept, with E6.3 bn from just the last two month of the period.
UK: UK data is expected from 0930GMT and includes CML third quarter Buy
to Let/Repossessions data and October Vehicle Licensing Statistics. The
main UK event is expected at 1200GMT, when the latest BOE policy
decision is expected. While several analysts had been forecasting the
MPC to sanction an extension of the program at its meeting next week
they have since taken stock of a number of recent developments and
comments - most important, Q3 GDP which came in at a whopping +1.0% q/q
compared with expectations closer to 0.6%. The latter was followed by a
series of BOE MPC official comments casting major doubt on whether the
committee would be able to muster a majority for a QE boost and even on
the longer-run effectiveness of QE. Upside inflation pressures from
utility bill hikes, tuition fees and food prices as well as optimism on
the impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme could also make the MPC
feel relaxed about holding fire - for now at least.
UK PRESS: Spiralling losses at Spanish airline Iberia could see as many
as 7,000 jobs lost as pasrt of a restructuring at International Airlines
Group, the Independent warns.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2769 after rate had recovered off
session lows of $1.2737, seen after rate had corrected back from its
post Obama re-election react highs of $1.2876. Rate extended its
recovery to $1.2781 into early Asia as rate reacted to the Greek
govt winning its austerity measures vote, though by a slim majority. This
early enthusiasm quickly faded and allowed rate to pullback to $1.2748
(76.4% $1.2737-81) on reported Japanese sales of euro-yen. Rate
recovered to $1.2766 before another round of selling pressed rate down
to $1.27643, with recovery efforts ahead of the European open holding
below $1.2760. Attention today will be focused on the ECB rate decision
at 1245GMT with most expecting no change but will watch the following
press conference for a possible extension in the fixed rate, full
allotment tender procedures as well as groundwork for a possible cut
at the Dec meeting. Spain bond auction due ahead at 0930GMT will provide
morning interest. Germany trade data due at 0700GMT. Bids remain
$1.2745/35, more $1.2720/15. Offers into $1.2790 (38.2% $1.2876-1.2737).
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.2876 Wednesday Nov7 high (post Obama election)
$1.2840/60 Medium offers
$1.2820/25 Strong offers/Stops
$1.2824 Tech 200-dma (closed below Wednesday)
$1.2790 Tech 38.2% $1.2876-1.2737/Offers to $1.2800
$1.2782 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2760 ***Current mkt rate 0715GMT Thursday
$1.2743 Int.day low Asia
$1.2737 Wednesday Nov7 low/$1.2741 38.2% $1.2042-1.3173
$1.2720/15 Medium demand
$1.2700 Medium demand
$1.2685/80 Medium demand
$1.2655/50 Medium demand
$1.2620/00 Strong demand
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.5990 having recovered off a session low of
$1.5954, seen after the rate had been pulled off post Obama election
react highs of $1.6043 by stronger euro-dollar slippage, with
euro-sterling diverting part of this pressure as it eased to a session
low of stg0.7971. Cable saw an early high of $1.5993 into Asian trade,
as risk was given a brief boost on the Greek govt passing the latest
austerity package. Sellers quickly emerged to press cable lower, as it
tracked euro-dollar's correction lower, the rate finding support at
$1.5970 ($1.5966 76.4% $1.5955-1.6004) before rate settled between
$1.5970/80 through the Asian afternoon and ahead of the European open.
Euro-sterling traded between stg0.79785-0.7993. UK CML third quarter Buy
to Let/Repossessions data and October Vehicle Licensing Statistics
provide an early interest but BOE MPC rate/QE decision at 1200GMT is key.
Most expect no change in either, recent GDP data has forecasters pulling
back from their QE extension call, though if they do extend will be seen
as sterling negative. ECB rate decision follows at 1245GMT.
Dollar-yen looks decidedly bearish as it breaks below the Y80.00
barrier while daily tech studies slide, all following the
inside-day/harami pattern posted on Nov 5. Initial support now seen
around Y79.76/82, the Nov 7 low and 38.2% Fibonacci level of the Mar to
Sep decline. Further strong support seen around Y79.60 to Y79.66,
consisting of the 21 and 200-DMAs and August high.
Euro-yen falls below the rising channel lower for the first time as
daily studies plummet, current price action hovers just below the rising
channel, initial resistance at Y102.31 alongside the Kijun line at
Y102.38. The bearish engulfing candle posted on Oct 23 still weighs on
the pair and we see intial support as the 55-DMA at Y101.40, with the
Ichimoku cloud top as further support at Y100.93.
Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Thursday's session lower, but
off the worst levels. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 135.74 points, or
1.51%, at 8837.15. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was
lower by 10.10 points at 735.61. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks
totalled 899.5 n shares, with 19 issues higher, 196 lower and 10
unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading around unchanged levels Thursday
after posting some slim gains during the previous day. Spot gold ended
Wednesday's session little changed at $1717.75/oz, up $1.75 from the
previous close. Prices did, however, pare back sharply from a high of
$1731.40/oz to lows of just above $1703, after risk assets came under
pressure when US markets opened, with many market participants initially
anticipating more of a risk-on session during the European hours. Flows
into the US dollar continue to hamper gold prices, although $1700 still
remains intact after Obama's re-election. The greenback continues to
draw strength amid concerns about the so called fiscal cliff in the US.
Spot gold prices have settled into a narrow trading range since
yesterday's correction back from above $1730, with a high in Asia this
morning of $1720.50/oz to hold at a low of $1715.70, with the market
currently trading just above last night's close at $1718.50, up $0.75 on
the session.
OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading higher Thursday after posting
some sharp losses the previous day. December WTI futures ended
Wednesday's session $4.27 lower, or 4.8%, at $84.44 a barrel. Crude
prices slumped during the previous session as investors worried about
the looming U.S. "fiscal cliff," while surprise EIA weekly data showing
a rise in crude stockpiles for the week of Nov 2 sent prices lower, with
WTI futures dipping to an intraday low of $84.05 per barrel on
Wednesday. December WTI futures have recovered during Asian traded hours
this morning, edging their way back higher from lows of $84.51 a barrel
to trade an intra-day high of $85.15 a few moments ago, with the market
currently seen trading $85.12 a barrel, up 68 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX December natural gas futures are trading lower
Thursday, extending their declines from the previous day. December
natural gas futures ended Wednesday's session down 3.9 cents, or 1.1%,
at $3.578 per million British thermal units (Btu) after trading between
$3.555 and $3.617 per mln Btu. Prices became subject to selling pressure
as milder weather forecasts for later this week and early next week
weighed on the market despite some colder near-term temperatures that
have recently stirred more heating demand. Market participants are now
looking ahead to today's US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
storage report for the week of November 3, due to be published at
1530GMT, with most expecting stocks to have gained 27bln cubic feet
(c/f) last week. Stocks rose to an adjusted 48bln c/f during the same
week last year. December natural gas futures have continued to fall this
morning, extending lower from a session high of $3.573 to hold at lows
of $3.541, with the market currently trading $3.544 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Nov 8 German FinMin Schaeuble & ESM chief Regling speak in Hamburg
- Nov 8 ECB meeting, Draghi's first anniversary as ECB President
- Nov 8 Spain sells 2015-/2018 Bono-/2032 Oblig bonds for up to E4.5bn
- Nov 8 Greek Aug unemployment data
- Nov 8/9 AFME European govt bond conference - EU debt chiefs speak
- Nov 9 Greece T-bill redemption for E1.6bln
- Nov 11 Greek parliament votes on 2013 Budget
- Nov 11 Armistice day holiday
- Nov 12 Eurogroup meeting to discuss Greek program further
- Nov 12 German Merkel in Portugal
- Nov 13 EcoFin meeting
- Nov 13 Portugal Autumn economic bulletin
- Nov 14 Spain's main labor unions CCOO and UGT call general stike
- Nov 14 Portuguese CGTP union calls for a strike
- Nov 14 ECB start of reserve maintenance period
SPAIN AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico sells a new 4.50% Jan
2018 Bono on Thursday and also tap of the 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono along with
the 5.75% July 2032 Obligaciones for between E3.5bln-E4.5bln indicative
size. THe 2032 Obligaciones announcement was a surprise announcement as
this will be the longest maturity bond this year and a bond with a
maturity above 15-year to be sold since May 2011. Since the
announcement, the Spanish 20-year yield has risen 16bps to 6.34% and
10-year yield up around 10bps to 5.68%. If the Tesoro sells its maximum
indicative size -- it normally slightly exceeds the target -- it will
fully cover its E86.0bln gross issuance target for this year. The 3
remaining auction dates on Nov 22, Dec 5 and Dec 13 are thus seen as
pre-funding for 2013. For comparison purposes, this is the second tap of
the 3.75% 2015 Bono that was last sold on Oct 4 for E2.0bln at average
yield of 3.96% and covered 1.98 times. The new 2018 Bono trades at 4.67%
mid-yield in the grey market or a pick-up of 18bps versus the 5.50% 2017
Bono. Auction results are due around 0940GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
wszak realne one są, gdyż boczniak już od wczoraj trwa i może coś się wykluje.
