1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Dla EUR przestrzeń pomiędzy 2930 a 2980 jest nieokreślona. Powyżej - pójdzie w górę, być może w okolice 3060, potem 3110. Poniżej - spadniemy do 2860. Dużą niewiadomą jest reakcja amerykańskiej giełdy, mogą dziać się rzeczy niewyśnione po Sandy.
EUROPE: Month end is upon us across financial markets and Wednesday
brings a fairly robust calendar. At 0700GMT, we see the release of
German retail sales data for September. Last month's report showed
lackluster sales growth with sales rising just 0.3% in adjusted terms on
the month in August, following July's 1.0% decline. The August monthly
result was slightly below analysts' expectations of a 0.6% gain. French
Producer Price Index data for September is due to be published at
0745GMT. The August report showed prices rose 1.2% on the month and 2.6%
on the year. During the month, cooking and refining prices rose 7.8%,
which brought their yearly increase to 16.1%. Foodstuff prices gained
0.8% on the month and 2.9% on the year. French September consumer
spending is also due at 0745GMT. At 0900GMT, we see the release of
German September machine orders, along with the ECB's Bank Lending
Survey.
EUROPE: At 1000GMT, the release of unemployment data for the eurozone is
due to be published. Data for August showed unemployment hovering at a
record 11.4%, underlining the severity of the economic slowdown in the
single currency block. The jobless numbers, which compare with the
August rate of 8.1% in the United States, suggest that Europe's
recession is deepening despite the continued efforts of policy makers
and finance ministers to cure the region's travails. Also due at 1000GMT
is the release of Italian Oct flash HICP. The German government are due
to conduct a press conference in Berlin at 1200GMT. At 1300GMT,
Euro-area finance ministers are scheduled to hold a conference call on
Greece. Norges Bank is also due to publish its key policy rate decision
and Monetary Policy report at 1300GMT.
ECB: Executive Board member Benoit Coeure says bank system adjustment only
halfway complete, with no comment on Japan foreign exchange intervention. The
euro is stable in the forex market, Coeure says.
ECB COEURE: Euro is stable in forex market
- No comment on Japan FX intervention policy
GREECE: The draft budget for 2013, which provides for measures of E9.2 bln, an
economic contraction of 4.5% and a primary surplus of 0.5%, will be tabled in
the Greek Parliament by Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras later Wednesday,
ekathimerini.com reports. The budget will have to get the House's vote by Nov
11, as Greece's international creditors have demanded its approval be brought
forward as a condition for the disbursement of the next bailout tranche. The
draft budget was originally scheduled to be tabled on November 20.
UK PRESS: German Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right coalition of Christian
Democrats and Free Democrats are anxious about the prospect of voting for yet
more financial aid for Greece, and for a program for Spain, The Financial Times
reports. Lawmakers have in recent days sounded more sympathetic towards more
help for Athens, but almost every one thinks the politics of eurozone bailouts
are becoming more fraught a year ahead of German elections. The growing unease
among ruling coalition members means Merkel is getting closer to relying on
opponents to back her eurozone policy. At the very least, that would trigger a
crisis of confidence in her coalition and raise questions about her political
authority, the FT says.
UK PRESS: A review written by Conservative peer and former deputy prime minister
Lord Heseltine of Thenford, has urged PM David Cameron to produce a radical
growth strategy and change government fundamentally if Britain is to win the
"relentless economic war" it faces, the Telegraph reports. "The message I keep
hearing is that the UK does not have a strategy for growth and wealth creation,"
Heseltine said. He also urges Prime Minister to stop publicly questioning
Britain's relationship with Europe, bring forward decisions about extra airports
and review immigration regulations.
US: US data kicks off at 1100GMT with US MBA Mortgage Applications for
the week ending October 26th. US data continues at 1230GMT, with the
release of the US Employment Cost Index, which is expected to rise 0.4%
in the third quarter following the 0.5% rise in the previous quarter.
The closely watched US October MNI Chicago Report is due to be published
at 1345GMT. The MNI Chicago report's business barometer is forecast to
rise to a reading of 51.0 in October after falling below 50 in
September. Other regional data already released have suggested that
contraction continued in some regions, but that conditions in the
Philadelphia region improved. More US data is due at 1400GMT, with the
release of the US October Help-wanted Online report. EIA US Crude Oil
Stocks data for the week ending October 26 was initially due to be
released today at 1430GMT, but has now been postponed until Thursday due
to the disruption caused to the market by Hurricane Sandy. No official
time has yet been established for Thursday's release. Late US data sees
the release of US October Agriculture Prices at 1900GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2960 after easing back from recovery
highs of $1.2984, having seen lows into Tuesday's Europe open of
$1.2886. Demand for euro-yen into early Asia provided some early
lift, allowing rate to edge to session highs of $1.2969 before Tokyo
sold back into the speculated risk-on move at their open. Euro-dollar
eased to $1.2955 before it settled within a tighter range of $1.2957-66.
Rate seen trading around $1.2960 into Europe. Germany retail sales data
due for release at 0700GMT to provide early interest with hopes that the
reopening of NY markets today will liven up activity, though the
aftermath of the devastating hurricane Sandy expected to restrict access
to downtown Manhattan and the financial district. Offers seen in place
from around Tuesday's high at $1.2984, with interest seen dotted toward
$1.3000, with talk of stronger sell interest placed above. Initial
support seen around $1.2950/45 ahead of main demand at $1.2925/20, more
into $1.2900 ahead of stronger interest at $1.2885/80. Asian sovereigns
have been dollar buyers overnight and could buy euros for balancing.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6074 after easing back from recovery highs of
$1.6086, having corrected off earlier session lows at $1.6021. Rate
nudged back up to retest Tuesday's high, as pre Tokyo market bought yen
pairs in anticipation of a risk-on open. However, Japanese accounts sold
back into the rally, pressing cable to lows of $1.6068 before rate met
willing buyers that allowed it to recover through the Asian afternoon,
moving above $1.6086 to extend recovery to $1.6090. Reported offers from
$1.6085/1.6100 continue to provide a counter, but rate seen holding firm
into early Europe despite suggestions we could see further end month
demand for euro-sterling (European sovereign buys were reported Monday
though there is still talk of more to be seen today). Euro-sterling
traded between stg0.8056/65 through Asia, holding off recently posted
end month driven highs of stg0.8073. NY markets due to reopen today,
though activity expected to be hampered as transportation links to the
financial part of Manhattan remain impacted by the effects of Hurricane
Sandy. Cable stops $1.6105/10, more offers $1.6120/25.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Wednesday after
ending the previous session around unchanged levels. Spot gold ended
Tuesday's session $0.15 higher at $1709.70/oz with many market
participants absent from the market due to the disruption caused by
Hurricane Sandy. Key event risks are also keeping the precious metal
pinned in a range, with the release of this Friday's US payroll data the
main area of focus, along with next week's US presidential election.
Spot gold prices have been tied to a very narrow trading range this
morning with very little movement seen in risk assets so far this
morning. Spot gold has edged its way higher from an intra-day low of
$1709.10/oz and peaked at around $1713.20/oz a few moments ago, with the
market currently seen trading $1712.80/oz, up $3.10 on the session.
OIL: December NYMEX WTI prices are trading marginally higher Wednesday
after posting some slim gains during the previous session. December WTI
futures ended Tuesday's session 14 cents higher at $85.68 a barrel, with
many market participants absent from the oil markets due to the
disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy. In terms of supply data, the US
EIA have declared, via their website, that they will postpone the
release of their Weekly Petroleum Status report for Wednesday as
scheduled because of Hurricane Sandy-related conditions. The EIA said
they were hoping to publish Thursday, "depending on the extent of the
storm damage and delays." No time has yet been established for the
release of the data. Due to a large number of market participants
remaining absent from the market, WTI prices have been tied to a tight
trading range so far this morning. December NYMEX WTI has edged its way
higher from a session low of $85.61 to advance to session highs of
$85.97 a barrel a few moments ago, now trading $85.96, up 28 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: NYMEX December natural gas futures are trading modestly
higher Wednesday after posting some losses during the previous session.
December natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session down 11.2 cents, or
nearly 3%, at $3.691 per million British thermal units (Btu) after
trading between $3.65 and $3.82, the highest level seen in the front
month contract in nearly a year. Market participants are now weighing up
the fact that there may be less demand for natural gas this week because
of the amount of power outages in the US, but offsetting that, to a
degree, are nuclear plant outages that are running at around 32,000
megawatts, nearly 13,000 megawatts above last year. December natural gas
prices have edged their way higher from session lows of $3.680 this
morning, to trade an intra-day high of $3.720 and now currently trade
$3.714 per mln Btu, up from last night's close of $3.691 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct 31 Spain bond redemption for E14.967bln
- Oct 31 Italy T-bill redemption for E9.235bln
- Oct 31 Portugal votes on the 2013 budget
- Oct 31 Euro-area FinMins to hold conference call at 1130GMT
- Oct 31 Italy PM Monti meets Bundestag finance commission in Rome
- Nov 1 All Saints' Day holiday
- Nov 1 German Merkel to meet Ireland PM Kenny in Berlin
- Nov 4/5 G20 finance ministers meeting - Mexico City
- Nov 7 EU issues Autumn Economic forecasts
- Nov 7 European Commission bi-annual economic forecasts
- Nov 8 ECB meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
- Nov 8 Spain Bono auction
- Nov 8 German Merkel speaks at German builders association
- Nov 8 Greek Aug unemployment data
- Nov 8/9 AFME European govt bond conference - EU debt chiefs speak
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
ficcanaso pisze:Dla bezpieczeństwa mogą wielcy gracze wycofywać aktywa....naa kilka sesji żeby zobaczyc co się dzieje z rynkkiem i do tego jeszcze wybory.
Jeśli tak - to czy wycofają aktywa z rynku Amerykańskiego czy wszystkich po trochu - bo to ma istotne przełożenie na waluty. I co zrobią z wycofaną kapuchą ?
Efekt może być chwilowy -( umocnienie dolca) później gdzieś muszą go włożyć... (Euro?)
Może czeka nas korekta o 20-30-40 pips z 1.2960 do okolic 1.2940 później będzie UP do 1.3000 kończąc wzrosty.
Później swobodny spadek w trzech falach już na sesji euroamerykańskiej. Ponownie do okolic 1.2920-1.2955
i odbicie : )
Czasu na scenariusz jest dużo. Ten wydaje się optymalny. Zobaczymy co wymyślą panienki z City.
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
EURO-DOLLAR: Eases back to $1.2950 with traders aware that month end
models are showing strong signals for euro-dollar sales to be seen at
today's fixes, but still see upside potential in the rate. With this in
mind one trader has suggested waiting to pick up euro-dollar into end
month execution dips, seeing $1.2940/10 as a decent area to buy, placing
stops below $1.2880.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3020/25 Strong offers/Stops $1.3000 Strong offers to $1.3010
$1.2984 Tuesday Oct30 high
$1.2969 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2948 ***Current mkt rate 0727GMT Wednesday $1.2946 Int.Day low Europe,Asia $1.2955/$1.2947 38.2% $1.2886-984
$1.2925/10 Strong demand/$1.2923 61.8% $1.2886-984
$1.2885/80 $1.2883 Friday low/Strong demand/Stops
$1.2870 CTA stops
$1.2850 Medium demand on approach $1.2840 Option linked stops
$1.2834 Tech 200-dma
$1.2815/00 Medium demand
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
oj chyba już wykonali tą korektę - 15 pips...
no to jeszcze konsolka i long.
-- Dodano: śr 31-10-2012, 8:37 --
niemiaszek pisze:EURO-DOLLAR: Eases back to $1.2950 with traders aware that month end
models are showing strong signals for euro-dollar sales to be seen at
today's fixes, but still see upside potential in the rate. With this in
mind one trader has suggested waiting to pick up euro-dollar into end
month execution dips, seeing $1.2940/10 as a decent area to buy, placing
stops below $1.2880.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3020/25 Strong offers/Stops $1.3000 Strong offers to $1.3010
$1.2984 Tuesday Oct30 high
$1.2969 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2948 ***Current mkt rate 0727GMT Wednesday $1.2946 Int.Day low Europe,Asia $1.2955/$1.2947 38.2% $1.2886-984
$1.2925/10 Strong demand/$1.2923 61.8% $1.2886-984
$1.2885/80 $1.2883 Friday low/Strong demand/Stops
$1.2870 CTA stops
$1.2850 Medium demand on approach $1.2840 Option linked stops
$1.2834 Tech 200-dma
$1.2815/00 Medium demand
Dzięki wielkie, chyba mamy nasze poziomy... 1.3000 (i 1.3020)i 1.2925
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
GERMAN BUND AUCTION PREVIEW: Germany's Finanzagentur re-opens its
30-year benchmark 2.50% July 2044 Bund Wednesday for up to E2.0bln. The
2044 issue trades at 2.35% mid-yield, but is seen as expensive against
surrounding issues on the curve given the steepening in the 10-/30-year
part of the yield curve to level not seen late July. In addition,
competing long-dated supply from Finland (2042 RFGB) last week, Belgium
(2032-/2035 OLO) earlier this week and France today, where the AFT taps
its 2035 OAT issue -- 1 day earlier, due to All Saints Day holiday on
Thursday -- is seen weighing on demand. At the last top-up on July 25,
E2.332bln was alloted an average yield 2.17% and covered 1.5 times, with
Buba retaining 22.6% of the sale. At the inaugural auction on April 25,
E2.458bln was alloted at an average yield of 2.62% and covered 2.1
times, with the Buba retailing 19.7% of the sale. Auction results are
due shortly after bidding close at 1030GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
