1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: There is a full calendar Tuesday, with a mix of data and
official speakers. The session gets underway with the release of French
business climate indicators for both the service and manufacturing
sectors, both due at 0645GMT. At 0755GMT, the German Economics Minister,
Philipp Roesler, is to speak about "Economics and the State in the 21st
Century" at a German Engineering Summit, in Berlin. Further speakers at
the event through the morning include German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble and ECB Governing Council member Yves Mersch. EU Commission
and EU Council Presidents are scheduled to discuss EU summit conclusions
with the European Parliament, in Strasbourg, from 0820GMT.
EUROPE: (2) ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen to speak at
1100GMT at the CEPS event in Brussels, with a speech entitled "Reshaping
the EU banking sector structure." Greek Finance Minister Yiannis
Stournaras is to participate in an extraordinary meeting at European
Parliament, in Brussels, from 1330GMT.
GREECE: Two Greek lawmakers were ejected from their respective parties
Monday, after saying they would not vote for further cost-cutting
measures. The moves still leaves the coalition with 176 seats in the
parliament, a working majority in excess of 50.
CYPRUS: The Cypriot government is set to invite Troika officials to the
island for further bailout talks, eKathimerini says
UK PRESS: UK consumers are set to curb spending in coming months,
concerned their financial position is set to weaken, the FT reports,
citing surveys from Mrket and Which? magazine. The latest Markit survey
of household finance fell to 37.4 in October, down from September's
44.3.
UK PRESS: The latest Populus poll for the Times shows the Tories
narrowing the gap on Labour, although the Opposition still enjoy a
five-point lead. However, the Times notes Labour's lead is the lowest
since the March budget. The LibDems are still stuttering on 9%.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Monday at $1.3060, the rate recovered from a
pullback low of $1.3042 after earlier posting a high of $1.3083.
Euro-dollar opened on a bid tone in early Asia and lifted to $1.3076
after the Spanish election results indicated support for PM Rajoy's
austerity policies, some see this as hope the government may request a
bailout. Strong demand in the crosses particularly in euro-sterling and
euro-yen also attributed to the move. Rate met resistance and profit
take sales eased to settle around $1.3055 ahead of Europe. Support seen
at $1.3045, bids behind at $1.3020, ahead of $1.3010. On the topside
stops noted on a break of $1.3085, through here opens offers at $1.3100
with more stops set. Lack of data release in the US today with the
highlight from Ricmond Fed Report, released at 1400GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Rate squeezed to $1.3044 in early Europe before meeting
support in the dip from a reported Swiss name. Last deals $1.3048 with
resistance seen at $1.3075/80 ($1.3075 - Asian high), through here and
stops noted on a break of $1.3085. On the downside reported bids at
$1.3020, stronger behind at $1.3000 with stops set.
CABLE: Cable ground lower in the US afternoon and as stocks wilted the
pair made a show under $1.6000 to $1.5998, before finding support to
close around $1.6010. The slippage in cable allowed euro-sterling to
consolidate recent gains and close around stg0.8156. Cable lifted with
euro-dollar to $1.6024 as risk sentiment increased in early Asia, before
profit take supply pared gains. The pair continued in a tight 10 pip
range and will look to hold above $1.6000 into Europe. On the downside
bids seen at $1.6000 and $1.5990, ahead of tech support at $1.5984/77
(55 dma, 9 & 10 Oct lows). Offers reported at $1.6030, ahead of $1.6045
(5 dma). Cross demand led the charge in early Asia and euro-sterling
printed highs of stg0.81609, before meeting resistance and easing back
in tandem with euro-dollar to hold above stg0.8150. Strong offers
reported at stg0.8180 on the topside, more seen ahead of the stg0.8200
barrier.
DOLLAR-YEN: Dollar-yen closed in NY Monday at session highs of Y79.94 on
expectations that the BOJ will ease monetary policy at it's meeting next
week. Euro-yen closed at Y104.35, the rate recovered from a pullback low
of Y104.10 after earlier posting a high of Y104.45. Dollar-yen extended
gains in early Asia and cleared the Y80.00 barrier on news reports that
the Japanese government is asking BOJ to increase the asset buying
program by Y20tln. The rate printed Y80.02 before meeting strong
resistance from Asian reserve managers/exporters, sending the pair to
Y79.85. A statement from Japan FinMin Jojima that said no truth in the
earlier mentioned media reports also attributed to the move. On the
topside tech resistance seen at Y80.10 (5 Jul high), through here opens
strong offers at Y80.20, more ahead of the Y80.50 barrier. Euro-yen
extended recent gains to Y104.59 on the early dollar move, before
running into strong exporter offers. The cross had a slow grind lower,
later recovering to settle around Y104.35 ahead of Europe.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session mixed. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 3.54 points, or 0.04%, at
9014.25. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
4.23 points at 749.49. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.0054 bn shares, with 81 issues higher, 125 lower and 19 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in negative territory Tuesday after
tentatively recovering some lost ground during the previous session.
Spot gold ended Monday's session $6.75 higher at $1728.50/oz after the
precious metal came in for some support from the physical market after
dropping to its lowest level for more than a month. Prices are expected
to remain trading on a range bound basis ahead of the two-day FOMC
meeting due to start today with a statement on its policy deliberations
scheduled to be published around 1815GMT on Wednesday. Spot gold prices
have declined from highs of $1730.33/oz to print a session low of
$1722.80/oz a few moments ago, with prices fading a little in tandem
with some moderate weakness in FX pair euro-dollar. Spot gold now trades
at $1723.60 a troy ounce, down $4.90 on the session.
OIL: December Nymex WTI prices are trading marginally higher Tuesday,
modestly recovering from yesterday's sharp declines. December WTI
futures ended Monday's session $1.79 lower at $88.65 a barrel after oil
prices came under pressure amid a risk aversion theme. Some market
participants are also expecting US oil inventories to rise for a third
consecutive week which also contributed to Monday's decline. Weekly US
commercial crude oil stocks are expected to show a 1.7 million-barrel
increase for the week ended October 19, Platts says citing a poll of
analysts. The API will release its weekly report on Tuesday, while the
US EIA report is due Wednesday. At 369.230 million barrels as of October
12, US crude stocks were 11% above the EIA five-year average and are
thus amply supplied going into this week's data release, Platts says.
December WTI futures have remained in positive territory so far Tuesday
but have pared back from their best levels, slipping back from a session
high of $89.29 to an intra-day low of $88.72, with the market currently
trading $88.89 a barrel, up 24 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas futures are trading around
unchanged levels Tuesday with the market in consolidation mode after
yesterday's sharp declines. November natural gas futures ended Monday's
session 16.5 cents lower, nearly 5%, at $3.452 per million British
thermal units (Btu) after initially printing a fresh high for 2012 at
$3.648 per mln Btu. Prices had become subject to some profit taking
after rising for three consecutive sessions amid volatile trade with an
accelerated move lower seen in the middle of the session after some
computer weather projections forecast some slightly milder weather.
Natural gas futures have been tied to a narrow trading range so far this
morning after yesterday's steep correction, edging their way back higher
from session lows of $3.437 per mln Btu to an intra-day high of $3.455.
November natural gas now trades just above yesterday's close at $3.453
per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Finland comes to the market on Tuesday with taps
of the 1.625% Sep 2022 RFGB and also the 2.625% July 2042 RFGB issues
for E1.5bln combined size. Looking ahead, Germany re-opens its 10-year
benchmark 1.50% Sep 2022 Bund issue Wednesday for up to E4.0bln. On
Friday, Italy conducts its zero coupon CTZ and linker auction -- details
are due to be announced on Wednesday, but expected to be for E2.5bln and
E1.5bln, respectively. Once again, supply is outweighed by reinvestment
flows, where redemption for E20.09bln is due from France and coupon
payments from France E15.426bln, Greece E1.4bln and Portugal E0.4bln --
to turn net cash flow positive to the tune of E27.816bln vs -E14.6bln
last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see Eurozone
bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico tap 3-month
Letra maturing Jan 17, 2013 and re-open 6-month letra maturing Apr 19,
2013 for an indicative amount of E2.5-E3.5bln Tuesday. Yield on the
3-month Letra has fallen by around 10bps since last week, with mid-yield
currently seen at 1.125%. While the 6-month Letra yield has fallen by
around 35bps, with mid-yield currently seen at 1.77%. Despite the lack
of concession going into supply, demand is expected to be high as the
current amount outstanding on both Letras are relatively small, and
follows strong 12-/18-month Letra auction last week. The large Letra
redemption of E9.154bln that matured on Oct 19 is still seen as
underpinning demand. For comparison, at the last 3-/6-month auction back
on Sep 25, the Tesoro sold E1.399bln 3-month T-bills at average yield of
1.203% with cover 3.29 times, and E2.584bln 6-month T-bills at average
yield of 2.213% with cover 1.83 times. Results due to be announced
around 0840GMT.
FINLAND AUCTION PREVIEW: Finland State Treasury is due tap its
10-year benchmark 1.625% Sep 2022 RFGB and also 30-year benchmark 2.625%
July 2042 RFGB issues Tuesday for combined size of E1.5bln. This is
likely to be the last auction for this year and complete Finland's
long-term funding of E15.7bln for 2012. The 1.625% Sep 2022 RFGB issue
trades at 1.858% mid-yield and this is the first tap of this 10-year
benchmark bond that was initially sold via syndication on Aug 28 for
E4.0bln at mid-swaps +3bps, re-offer price of 98.895 and equivalent
yield of 1.746%. The 2.625% July 2042 RFGB trades at 2.615% mid-yield
and this is also the first tap of this 30-year benchmark issue that was
initially sold via syndication on June 26 for E1.5bln at mid-swaps
+45bps or a re-offer price of 99.528 equivalent to a yield of 2.648%.
Strong demand is expected given the small auction size and fact that
both issues offer around 20bps pick-up over equivalent German
equivalent maturities. Auction results are due around 1010GMT.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Przebije 1,3020 to będzie pogłębienie spadków do (pierwszy setup) 1,3000, a później nawet do 1,2950. Odbije się od 1,3020 powrót do 1,3080. Moja wczorajsza analiza dalej aktualna.
Nyxa pisze:Przebije 1,3020 to będzie pogłębienie spadków do (pierwszy setup) 1,3000, a później nawet do 1,2950. Odbije się od 1,3020 powrót do 1,3080. Moja wczorajsza analiza dalej aktualna.
co Ty z tym 1.2950 ? tam po drodze jest wsparcie H4 1.2984
Kawa powinna być czarna jak smoła, słodka jak pszczoła i gorąca jak smoła
Nyxa pisze:Przebije 1,3020 to będzie pogłębienie spadków do (pierwszy setup) 1,3000, a później nawet do 1,2950. Odbije się od 1,3020 powrót do 1,3080. Moja wczorajsza analiza dalej aktualna.
co Ty z tym 1.2950 ? tam po drodze jest wsparcie H4 1.2984
Ano jest ale wydaje mi się, że nie jest tak istotne jak 1,2950. To tylko moje zdanie, moje kredki i moje kreski.
Nyxa pisze:Przebije 1,3020 to będzie pogłębienie spadków do (pierwszy setup) 1,3000, a później nawet do 1,2950. Odbije się od 1,3020 powrót do 1,3080. Moja wczorajsza analiza dalej aktualna.
co Ty z tym 1.2950 ? tam po drodze jest wsparcie H4 1.2984
Ano jest ale wydaje mi się, że nie jest tak istotne jak 1,2950. To tylko moje zdanie, moje kredki i moje kreski.
To możesz pokazać ? proszę, bo mi na 1.2950 nic nie wypada.
Kawa powinna być czarna jak smoła, słodka jak pszczoła i gorąca jak smoła
Ale zapewne i tak się odbije jak wczoraj więc zaraz trzeba zebrać zysk.
