1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
Premier Mariano Rajoy wyszedł zwycięsko z wyborczego plebiscytu w hiszpańskiej Galicji. Jego macierzysta Partia Ludowa, rządząca Galicją przez 24 z ostatnich 31 lat, wygrała wybory regionalne, zachowując większość w lokalnym parlamencie, wynika z pierwszych sondaży.
W niedzielę 21 października w dwóch hiszpańskich regionach: Kraj Basków i Galicja, zostały przeprowadzone wybory do lokalnych parlamentów. W zgodnej opinii analityków wybory, w tym przede wszystkim w Galicji, to wielkie referendum ws. polityki antykryzysowej prowadzonej przez premiera Mariano Rajoya. Test ten wypadł korzystnie.
Partia Ludowa zdobyła w niedzielnych wyborach do parlamentu i rządu hiszpańskiego regionu Galicja 39-42 miejsc, zachowując większość. Socjaliści zdobyli 18-20 miejsc. Partie nacjonalistyczne 15-18 miejsc.
W Kraju Basków zwyciężyła Nacjonalistyczna Partia Basków zdobywając 24-27 mandatów. Nacjonalistyczna koalicja Bildu zdobyła ich 23-26. Socjaliści uzyskali 13-15 miejsc w baskijskim parlamencie, a Partia Ludowa 9-11.
Zwycięstwo Partii Ludowej w Galicji zostanie odebrane jako sygnał poparcia dla polityki Rajoya i może być interpretowane przez rynki jako duży krok przybliżający decyzję Hiszpanii o zgłoszeniu się po pomoc międzynarodową. Dotychczas wybory regionalne były uznawane jako podstawowa przeszkoda ku takiej prośbie. Dlatego należy oczekiwać pozytywnej reakcji rynków. W tym roku wybory regionalne zostaną przeprowadzone jeszcze w Katalonii. Zostaną one przeprowadzone 25 listopada 2012 roku.
Rajoy stwierdził, że poprosi o pomoc - jeśli będzie potrzeba - tak jak w sprawie banków. Na razie nie widzi jeszcze konieczności.
[I jak to było w sprawie banków szybko taką pomoc otrzyma. Hiszpania to nie Grecja - tu zwłoka może mieć dużo gorsze konsekwencję i skalę rażenia]
Dla mnie dalej Long po tej korekcie - Azjaci już kupują?
W sesji Europejskiej i Amerykańskiej będą okazje wejść jeszcze nisko - po jakichś danych, które wywołają korektę...
i złoto też odbija...
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
EUROPE: There is a fairly limited calendar Monday, with the last of the
US Presidential debates the stand out feature, although well after
markets close for Monday trade. Also, many are sidelined ahead of
Wednesday's FOMC announcement. There is a very light calendar in Europe.
At 0830GMT, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen is to give the
opening speech at the 35th German Tax Consultant Congress, in Hamburg.
The European Parliament is to hold a hearing with ECB Governing Council
member Yves Mersch, in Brussels, expected around 0900GMT. The only
scheduled eurozone data is the release of the EMU 2Q12 govt. debt
numbers, due at 0900GMT.
SPAIN: Spain's ruling PP won an increased majority in local
elections in Galicia at the weekend, with th result seen easing pressure
on PM Rajoy ahead of further anti-austerity rallies. Analysts also say
the election victory could ease an quicken moves to Spain requesting a
full EU bailout.
GREECE: The delay in budget negotiations with the Troika is slowing the
Greek privatisation sales, eKathimerini says.
GREECE: Greek officials resume discussions with Troika officials Monday,
with Greek finance minister saying at the weekend that Greece has
concluded 90% of what it has to do to secure the E31.5 bn bailout funds
needed, eKathimerini says. The website also notes that discussions must
be concluded and voted through parliament ahead of the Nov 12 Eurogroup
meeting.
IRELAND: Irish PM Kenny and German Chancellor Merkel spoke by phone
Sunday, as Merkel reportedly back-tracked somewhat on Friday's "no
legacy" deal for banks, saying Ireland remains a "special case", the
Irish Times reports.
GERMAN PRESS: The German Finance Ministry is preparing a debt
buy-back program for Greek sovereign bonds in the secondary market,
German weekly Der Spiegel reported over the weekend, without citing its
sources. According to the magazine, Greece could borrow money from the
Eurozone's permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism
(ESM), to buy back its own debt. On average, Greek bonds trade at some
25% of their face value. Buying E10 bln of Greek bonds would, thus,
reduce Greek debt by E40 bln, Der Spiegel wrote.
UK PRESS: No great surpise, as all the UK's major papers run headlines
suggesting the "double-dip" is over, as this week's GDP numbers are
likely to show a bounceback of around 0.7%.
UK PRESS: UK mutual lender Nationwide is considering a bid for around
310 branches up for sale by RBS, the press reports Monday.
UK PRESS: The FT says German Chancellor is trying to negiotiate with UK
PM Cameron on his insistence he will veto any increase in the EU budget
at next month's Budget Summit.
UK PRESS: The UK Government is set to urge the nation's leading
companies to offer credit lines to struggling suppliers, the FT says,
the latest attempt to address financing shortfalls.
US PRESS: The latest WSJ/NBC poll shows President Obama and Mitt Romney
tied nationally, with both men on 47% of the popular vote.
EURO-DOLLAR: Market sentiment turned in the US afternoon on Friday and
as stocks wilted on the 25th anniversary of Black Monday, euro flushed
stops through $1.3020 to print session lows of $1.3013. Later bouncing
to close around $1.3025. Euro-dollar ground higher in a light Asian
session and recovered to $1.3050, some say the move was attributed to a
positive result by Spain's ruling popular party in the weekend's
elections in Galicia, others, the reported large option strike at
$1.3050 for today's NY cut. On the topside tech resistance seen at
$1.3062 (5 dma), a break opens $1.3072 (5 Oct high), ahead of offers at
$1.3080. Reported bids at $1.3020/10, stronger behind at $1.3000, with
stops set, ahead of techs at $1.2993/92 (Former ressitance from Sep 17 -
now support, 12 Oct high). No data release in the US today with
range trade expected in headline driven markets.
CABLE: Soft Housing data and weak earnings reports added weight in the
US afternoon on Friday. The pair slipped in tandem with euro-dollar and
triggered stops through $1.6000, to print lows of $1.5995, later
bouncing to close around $1.6005. Cable opened heavy in Asia and made a
show back under $1.6000 to $1.5991, where the rate met support in the
dip and bounced to opening levels. The pair extended recovery pullback
efforts on broad dollar weakness across the board to $1.6033 ahead of
Europe. Offers reported on the topside into $1.6050, ahead of $1.6068
(5 dma). Euro-sterling closed in NY Friday at stg0.8136, the rate
recovered from a pullback low of stg0.8122, after earlier posting a high
of stg0.8143. The cross lifted in tandem with euro-dollar to print
stg0.8148 where the rate met resistance ahead of the stg0.8150 barrier,
a break here triggers stops opening a move towards offers at stg0.8180.
DOLLAR-YEN: Failed a clean break of Y79.50 in the US afternoon Friday,
the rate lifted to Y79.44 before meeting strong exporter offers ahead
of the barrier. The pair stalled and closed at Y79.29. Dollar-yen opened
flat in Asia, release of weaker than expected Japan trade data failed to
inspire and the pair continued in a tight range. Market talk the BOJ may
loosen monetary supply boosted the dollar to Y79.40. Rate extended gains
through the 200 dma and Y79.50 barrier, flushing stops to print highs of
Y79.63. The underlying tone remains buoyant with tech resistance at
Y79.66 (August high), ahead of strong offers into Y79.80. Euro-yen
tracked dollar moves and lifted to Y103.62 in early NY, before sliding
in tandem with euro-dollar to close around Y103.28 as market sentiment
turned. Euro-yen opened heavy in Asia and slipped to Y103.13, before
finding support in the dip and a slow grind higher to Y103.50. The cross
tracked late demand in dollar-yen to make a show above Y104.00 and print
Y104.02. Profit take sales eased to Y103.90 ahead of Europe with strong
offers reported into Y104.20.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Monday's
session narrowly mixed. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 8.03 points, or
0.09%, at 9010.71. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was
lower by 0.65 points at 753.72. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks
totalled 1.005 bn shares, with 125 issues higher, 77 lower and233
unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices have edged their way back higher Monday after
posting some sharp losses at the tail end of last week. Spot gold ended
Friday's session $19.55 lower at $1721.75/oz pressured by a stronger US
dollar after some lacklustre earnings from US companies sent investors
into some alternative safe havens. Gold prices initially slipped to one
month lows during Asian traded hours this morning, trading a session low
of $1714.20/oz, before prices recovered to trade a session high of
$1727.16/oz in tandem with an improved showing from FX pair euro-dollar
which has been buoyant for much of the Asian session. Risk sentiment has
moderately improved so far this morning after a more risk aversion theme
was present early on. Spot gold is now trading $1725.60 a troy ounce, up
$3.85 on the session.
OIL: December Nymex WTI futures are trading in positive territory Monday
after posting some sharp losses during the previous session. December
WTI futures ended Friday's session $2.09 lower at $90.44 a barrel. NYMEX
November light sweet crude oil futures settled down $2.05 at $90.05 per
barrel, after trading in a $89.93 to $93.05 range, while ICE Brent
settled down $2.28 at $110.14 per barrel after trading in a $110.05 to
$113.27 range. While the front WTI contract has been trading below its
200-day moving average ($95.81 Friday) since mid September, on expected
excess U.S. supply/reduced demand, this is the first time since October
8 that Brent has closed below its 200-day ($112.24). This morning,
December WTI futures initially extended lower to session lows of $89.85
a barrel but have since reversed their declines and edged back higher to
currently trade on session highs of $90.95 a few moments ago, up 51
cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas futures are trading around
unchanged levels Monday in consolidation mode after Friday's gains.
November natural gas futures ended Friday's session at $3.617 per
million British thermal units (Btu) after trading in a range from $3.559
to highs of $3.647. This morning, November natural gas prices have been
tied to a narrow range and have pared back from a high of $3.639, posted
early on during Asian traded hours, to trade a session low of $3.610,
with the market currently trading marginally lower at $3.612 per mln
Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Sovereign bond issuance this week in the
eurozone is scheduled from Finland, Germany and Italy -- estimated to be
E9.5bln. This slows down considerably from E37.75bln issued last week
after Italy's Treasury sold E18.018bln in its 3rd placement of 'BTP
Italia' bond - a retail-focused four year government bond indexed to
domestic inflation. Finland comes to the market on Tuesday with taps of
the 1.625% 2022 RFGB and also the 2.625% 2042 RFGB issues for E1.5bln
combined size. On Wednesday, Germany re-opens its 10-year benchmark
1.50% 2022 Bund issue for up to E4.0bln. On Friday, Italy conducts its
zero coupon CTZ and linker auction -- details are due to be announced on
Wednesday, but expected to be for E2.5bln and E1.5bln, respectively.
Once again, supply is outweighed by reinvestment flows, where redemption
for E20.09bln is due from France & coupon payments from France
E15.426bln, Greece E1.4bln and Portugal E0.4bln -- to turn net cash flow
positive to the tune of E27.816bln vs -E14.6bln last week. Please see
Eurozone bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
CFTC: Speculative accounts trimmed their net euro short positions
as well as their net yen long positions this week, according to U.S.
CFTC data, released Friday. The CFTC's COT report -- non-commercial,
futures-only section, excluding options -- showed speculators had a net
euro short of -53,495 contracts as of October 16, compared to the net
short of -72,570 contracts seen last week and the record net euro short
of -214,418 contracts, seen June 5, 2012. Speculative accounts had a net
yen long of +10,086 contracts as per October 16, versus last week's net
yen long of +12,914 contracts. The euro closed near $1.3052 and
dollar-yen at Y78.86 October 16 which compared to closing levels Friday
at $1.3022 and Y79.33.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct ? France President Hollande to visit Greek PM Samaras
- Oct 22 Spanish short-selling ban ends
- Oct 22 German FinMin publishes Oct monthly report
- Oct 23 Spain T-bill auction (3-/6-month)
- Oct 23 Portugal YTD budget report
- Oct 23 German Schaeuble speaks about "Europe & the Euro - a Currency
Zone With a Future?" in Berlin
- Oct 23 Greek FinMin Stournaras in European Parliament
- Oct 24 ECB Draghi briefs German lawmakers on Euro-debt crisis
- Oct 24 German Schaeuble speaks after govt fiscal stability council
- Oct 24 Italy Oct consumer confidence survey
- Oct 26 Italy CTZ/linker auction
- Oct 26 Italy Sep business survey
- Oct 26 Spain Q3 unemployment rate
- Oct 28 Spain regional elections in Catalonia
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
-Wygrywa tylko ten kto ma jasno określony cel i nieodparte pragnienie aby go osiągnąć.
-Mądry człowiek nie opłakuje przegranej, lecz szuka sposobu jak wyleczyć odniesione straty.
-"zwycięstwo to nie wszystko, a zaledwie część wszystkiego"
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Ostatnio zmieniony 22 paź 2012, 10:39 przez marker74, łącznie zmieniany 2 razy.
-Wygrywa tylko ten kto ma jasno określony cel i nieodparte pragnienie aby go osiągnąć.
-Mądry człowiek nie opłakuje przegranej, lecz szuka sposobu jak wyleczyć odniesione straty.
-"zwycięstwo to nie wszystko, a zaledwie część wszystkiego"
