1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
BOCZEK pisze:dane zajebiscie trudne do odczytu, jak dla mnie czy dobre czy złe
dziś nawet nie patrzę.
Wystarczy, że oni widzą.
Dla mnie S do 1.307
A co jak bedzie L do 1.3200
Pewnie będzie tak w dłuższym terminie.
Tu i teraz - sądzę, że będzie najpierw reset - do 1.306-7 i kolejna szarpana konsolidacja - prawdopodobnie później long. do 1.315-1.3163 ale to wyłącznie moja "życzeniowa" opinia...
; )
Quo Vadis? Już wiesz ?
"Rynek nagradza cierpliwych"
↱↴↱↴ więc siedź na dupie i czekaj↱↴↱↴↴↴
EUROPE: The week comes to an end with a fairly light data calendar.
However, European politics will likely provide plenty of headlines. The
EU leaders summit continues in Brussels and will likely see a plethora
of press conferences from the various leaders. Overnight talk says there
has been "a political; agreement" on the eurozone banking union,
although no timetable has been agreed. According to French officials,
Spain was not discussed at the Thursday night talks. On the Continent,
German September PPI is due for release. Germany's Bundestag is set to
deliberate on transforming the EU fiscal pact into national laws.
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble likely to speak. Following that, the
Bundestag is to deliberate on a second supplementary budget for 2012.
At 0800GMT, the Italian August industrial orders numbers are released.
At the same time, the ECB Aug current account data will hit the wires.
GERMANY: The outlook for Germany's banking system remains negative,
Moody's Investors Service says in a new banking system outlook. The main
drivers of the outlook are (1) margin pressure for banks, owing to
intense competition, low interest rates and limited loan growth; (2) a
weakening operating environment amid recessionary trends across Europe;
(3) rising risk charges and deteriorating asset quality; and (4) many
banks' limited loss-absorption capacity, Moody's says.
GREECE: Greece aims to conclude the terms of its latest deal with the
Troika early next week, so an extraordinary meeting of the Eurogroup on
Oct 28 can agree the payment of the E31.5 bn tranche, eKathimerini
reports.
GERMANY PRESS: The European Parliament will reject Yves Mersch's
nomination to become a member of the European Central Bank's Executive
Board and will call on the European Council to present new candidates,
according to a draft statement by the parliament's economic and monetary
affairs committee, the German newspaper Die Welt reported in its Friday
edition. Mersch, who currently heads Luxembourg's central bank, is
scheduled to testify Monday before the parliamentary committee, which is
then set to vote on his nomination next Thursday.
BUNDS: Dec Bunds open down 8 ticks Friday at 139.74.
UK DATA: Sales at John Lewis UK department stores rose 8.6% in the week
to October 13 compared with the same week a year earlier, the John Lewis
Partnership announced Friday. Total partnership sales in the same week
were higher by 7.3% year-on-year on the comparable week in the 2011/12
trading year, Lewis stated. Meanwhile, total sales at the Waitrose food
chain rose 6.5% compared to the same week a year ago.
UK PRESS: BOE MPC member David Miles says the UK economy has been slower
than expected, but there are reasons for optimism over the next few
years. In an interview with the Guardian, Miles added that the "off the
scale" stimulus in recent years had not triggered any overheating in
prices or wage settlements.
UK PRESS: The FT notes UK clearer Barclays has set aside a further stg
700 mn against PPI claims, with the total provisions now standing at stg
2 bn.
US: The main US release for the session is expected at 1400GMT, with the
release of the September NAR Existing Home Sales report. The pace of
existing home sales is expected to slow to a 4.75 million annual rate in
September after rising 7.9% to 4.82 million in August on sharp gains in
both single-family and condo sales. Home prices remain well above their
year ago levels, and a price dip recorded one year ago in September
2011 will likely keep that trend intact for the current month. Also at
1400GMT, the September BLS State Unemployment numbers are out. Late US
data, expected at 2015GMT, sees the release of the C&I loans numbers.
US index futures are trading higher across the board in Asian trade
Friday. The S&P Dec mini was last 1.0 points higher at 1452.5, with the
Nasdaq mini up 4.0 points at 2736.75 Dow futures are also inching
higher, up 2 at 13489.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Thursday at $1.3065 after earlier printing
highs of $1.3128. Euro slipped on the premature release of Google
earnings, aided by headlines that the Greek PM is asking the EU to
release the full E31.5bn tranche of aid as soon as possible. The rate
flushed stops through $1.3080 but was cushioned by demand into
$1.3055/50. Dollar demand in the Tokyo fix weighed on the pair and
euro-dollar slipped to $1.3058 and re-tested yesterday's spike lows.
Support in the dip and aided by macro demand recovered to $1.3070, where
the rate settled in a tight 15 pip range ahead of Europe. Light data
in the US with the highlight being Existing Home Sales, released at
1400GMT. Focus remains on headlines from the EU summit today for added
direction. On the downside strong demand remains into $1.3050, bids
behind at $1.3040 with stops on a break, ahead of more bids at $1.3020.
EURO-DOLLAR: Squeezes lower in early European trade to $1.3058 and a
re-test of overnight Asian lows. Strong support seen into $1.3055/50
($1.3052 - 5 dma), through here opens bids at $1.3040 with stops set,
more behind at $1.3020.
CABLE: Closed in NY Thursday at session lows of $1.6044, the rate having
slipped in tandem with euro-dollar on the premature release of Google
earnings that missed targets. Cable was tied to a very narrow $1.6041-66
Asian range with very little action to excite the pair as traders look
to headlines from todays EU summit for further direction. Strong support
seen on the downside at $1.6040 with stops set, through here opens techs
at $1.6014 (Former Jun 18 resistance line - now support), ahead of
strong bids into $1.6000. The cross capitalised on sterling weakness in
the NY afternoon yesterday and spiked to stg0.8146, offers sitting ahead
of stg0.8150 capped moves. Profit take supply and traders squaring
positions ahead of the weekend weighed on euro-sterling in early Asia,
the rate slipped to stg0.8137 and settled in a tight range. Support seen
on the downside at stg0.8120, ahead of techs at stg0.8113/0.8111
(5 & 200 dma's).
DOLLAR-YEN: Market sentiment turned in the American afternoon yesterday
and as traders preferred the safe-haven plays, dollar-yen consolidated
gains and closed around Y79.25. The rate earlier printed a spike high of
Y79.46 following comments that the BOJ is expected to consider fresh
easing measures. Dollar-yen opened flat in Asia before lifting on sharp
demand ahead of the Tokyo fix to Y79.41, the rate met strong resistance
from the 200 dma (Y79.43)/offers ahead of the Y79.50 barrier and eased
to Y79.35. Flat trade was seen across the board in all majors as traders
squared positions ahead of the weekend. Euro-yen closed in NY at
Y103.60, the rate recoverd from a pullback low of Y103.30, after earlier
printing spike highs of Y104.14 following release of positive Phila Fed
data. Euro-yen slipped on the Asian open to Y103.60, before lifting in
tandem with dollar-yen through the fix to Y103.80. The cross stalled and
settled in a tight 20 pip range ahead of Europe. Resistance seen at
Y103.85 (Rising channel upper), ahead of offers at Y104.00
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session higher, as a five-day wining streak takes teh index above
9,000. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 19.82 points, or 0.22%, at 9002.60.
Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by 1.16
points at 753.46. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled 1.114
bn shares, with 96 issues higher, 96 lower and 33 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in negative territory Friday
extending their declines from the previous day. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $8.85 lower at $1741.30/oz after failing to break
through $1754/55 on the upside. A stronger showing from the US dollar
then put pay to any additional upside in bullion prices as market
participants await to see if any interesting conclusions come out of the
two-day European leaders gathering in Brussels. Spot gold prices have
extended lower so far this morning in tandem with a moderate risk
aversion theme as flows continue to favour the US dollar. Metals dealers
also report subdued activity in the physical market during Asian traded
hours this morning. Spot gold has extended lower from opening highs of
$1743.50/oz to hold at an intra-day low of $1736. Metals brokers report
limited activity so far, with some moderate bids seen working below
around $1731/32/oz. The precious metal now trades at $1738.60 a troy
ounce, down $2.70 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI futures are trading around unchanged levels
Friday in consolidation mode after yesterday afternoon's price swings.
November WTI futures ended Thursday's session 2 cents lower at $92.10 a
barrel after trading in a $90.66 to $92.59 range. Oil markets have so
far showed little reaction to the news that TransCanada Corp has been
forced to shut down its major pipeline with the capacity to transport a
quarter of Canada's crude oil exports to the US after detecting a small
anomaly on the pipe. Oil prices have been tied to a narrow range so far
this morning, as markets await to see any conclusions from the two-day
EU leaders gathering in Brussels. November WTI futures have pared back
from session highs of $92.26 to hold at an intra-day low of $91.97 to
currently trade $92.12 a barrel, up 2 cents on the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas futures are trading marginally
higher Friday after posting gains for a second consecutive day during
the previous session. November natural gas futures ended Thursday's
session up 11.7 cents, or 3.4%, at $3.587 per million British thermal
units (Btu) after initially sliding to a low of $3.401 after a slightly
bearish weekly inventory report from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Front month futures found support around $3.40 per
mln Btu, a level that has been tested several times so far this week.
Natural gas prices eventually reversed higher amid technical buying as
market participants noted that the EIA storage number revealed a bigger
build than expectations, but the injections had been considerably
smaller than last year and mostly below average. November natural gas
futures have been in modest negative territory for much of this morning,
but have advanced back to the upside a few moments ago, picking up from
a session low of $3.559 to now trade in positive territory at $3.592 per
mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been
completed for this week, with E21.03bln allocated by Netherlands,
France, Spain, Greece, Belgium, EFSF, Portugal, and Ireland vs E21.79bln
last week. To recap, on Monday Netherlands sold E1.07bln 3-month DTC at
avg yield -0.037% and E1.02bln 6-month DTC at avg yield -0.021%. In the
afternoon, France sold E3.996 3-month BTF at avg yield -0.023%, E1.197bn
6-month BTF at avg yield -0.007% and E1.798bln 12-month BTF at avg yield
0.016%. On Tuesday Spain sold E3.4bln 12-month Letra at avg yield 2.823%
and E1.463bln 18-month Letra at avg yield 3.022%. Greece sold E1.625bln
new 13-week T-bill at avg yield 4.24%. Belgium sold E1.503bln 3-month
T-bill at avg yield -0.01% and E1.605bln new 12-month T-bill at avg
yield 0.072%. On Wednesday Portugal allotted E250mln 3-month T-bill at
avg yield 1.366%, E830mln 6-month T-bill at avg yield 1.84% and E770mln
12-month T-bill at avg yield 2.10%. Finally on Thursday Ireland sold
E500mln 3-month T-bill at avg yield 0.7%. In terms T-bill issuance
planned for next week we have, France, and Spain and could total E10bn.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct 19 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
- Oct 19 Spain T-bill redemption for E9.02bln
- Oct 19 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.625bln
- Oct 19 Portugal T-bill redemption for E589.4mln
- Oct 21 Spain regional elections in Galicia and Basque
- Oct 22 Spanish short-selling ban ends
- Oct 22 German FinMin publishes Oct monthly report
- Oct 23 Portugal YTD budget report
- Oct 23 Spain T-bill auction (3-/6-month)
- Oct 24 ECB Draghi briefs German lawmakers on Euro-debt crisis
- Oct 26 Italy CTZ/linker auction
- Oct 26 Spain Q3 unemployment rate
- Oct 28 Spain regional elections in Catalonia
- Oct 29 Spain floater bond redemption for E5.299bln
- Oct 29 Italy T-bill auction
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Jezu Jaka to dzisiaj cisza.
To powtórzę swoje 3 grosze ze wczoraj. Póki 1.3050 nie pęknie, to mamy wsparcie.
Dla mnie cały czas jest nie załatwiona sprawa na 1.3150 i miło by było jak by się to dziś wydarzyło.
Hearing that the 1.3050 strike that rolls off today at the NY cut is apparently in excess of Eur 1 billion, so we may see the pair fairly tightly range bound this morning around the level, particularly later towards the cut
That would likely be around 1.3050 earlier, haven’t any specifics as yet but will let you know more as and when i get it.
EUR’s back up around 1.3067 after recent lows of 1.3046
Zdaje się że mamy potężną opcję na 1.3050. Dodatkowo ktoś ostro kupił z tego poziomu. Najlepsze jest to, że teraz tam gdzie były sell stopy pod 1.3050, teraz są kolejne bidy.
Cena doszła do 1.3046, a ja sobie oczekującego buya na 1.3050 ustawiłem i o dziwo odpalił . Może dziś będzie lepszy dzień dla mnie, bo naprawdę ostre wejścia dziś mam .
Mpapiez pisze:Jezu Jaka to dzisiaj cisza.
To powtórzę swoje 3 grosze ze wczoraj. Póki 1.3050 nie pęknie, to mamy wsparcie.
Dla mnie cały czas jest nie załatwiona sprawa na 1.3150 i miło by było jak by się to dziś wydarzyło.
Hearing that the 1.3050 strike that rolls off today at the NY cut is apparently in excess of Eur 1 billion, so we may see the pair fairly tightly range bound this morning around the level, particularly later towards the cut
That would likely be around 1.3050 earlier, haven’t any specifics as yet but will let you know more as and when i get it.
EUR’s back up around 1.3067 after recent lows of 1.3046
Zdaje się że mamy potężną opcję na 1.3050. Dodatkowo ktoś ostro kupił z tego poziomu. Najlepsze jest to, że teraz tam gdzie były sell stopy pod 1.3050, teraz są kolejne bidy.
Cena doszła do 1.3046, a ja sobie oczekującego buya na 1.3050 ustawiłem i o dziwo odpalił . Może dziś będzie lepszy dzień dla mnie, bo naprawdę ostre wejścia dziś mam .
pisząc dużo niżej myślałem ze masz na myśli wiecej niż 20 pipek, ze celujesz gdzieś w niżej niż 1,3....
Przeczytanie powyższej wypowiedz może doprowadzić do błędnej oceny sytuacji, spowodować przecenienie własnych możliwości, czego konsekwencją mogą być błędnie podjęte decyzje. Ofiarami mogą paść początkujący jak i doświadczeni inwestorzy. Tak myślę!
Jaka to dzisiaj cisza.
. Może dziś będzie lepszy dzień dla mnie, bo naprawdę ostre wejścia dziś mam 
