1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE;/UK - There is plenty on the calendar to keep traders interested
Friday, although, without a doubt, the main feature will be the US
employment report at 1230GMT. Early UK data sees the release of the John
Lewis Sales numbers for the week to September 29. Back in Europe, at
0700GMT, Spanish August industrial output numbers are expected and will
likely underline the depth of Spain's recession. At 0900GMT,the 3rd
estimate of EMU second quarter GDP numbers will be released, followed at
1000GMT by the release of the German August manufacturing orders data.
Also at 1000GMT, the Central Bank Of Ireland publishes its Quarterly
Bulletin. Also on the calendar Friday, French President Hollande,
Italian PM Monti and Spanish PM Rajoy are set to meet on the sidelines
of a Mediterranean nations conference, to be held in Malta.
UK PRESS: The Telegrap says many companies in the hands of private
equity are set to take advantage of a buoyant corporate bond market to
raise "billions" from bond sales.
UK PRESS: UK mortgage lender The Nationwide will stop offering
interest-only mortgages from next week, the Telegraph reports, joining a
list of lenders withdrawing the product.
EU: In other markets, major European bourses are initially seen trading
modestly higher on Friday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the
FTSE higher by 22, the DAX higher by 31 and the CAC down 1.
US: Index futures are trading higher Friday, extending the overnight
gains. The S&P Dec mini was last 2.0 points higher at 1457.75, with the
Nasdaq Dec mini 4.5 points higher at 2826.0. Dow futures are also
higher, up 16 points at 13514
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.3020 after settling back from seeing
extended highs of $1.3032, before pulling back to $1.3008 ahead of the
close. Early demand into Asia met strong headwind sales above $1.3020
which restricted highs to $1.3023. The rate challenged this area a
further two times but failed on each attempt, though corrective
pullbacks were restricted to $1.3010. US Employment Report this
afternoon (1230GMT) the main focus on the day with market to gauge risk
going forward. CitiFX Wire suggest that this release could be seen as
a more politically sensitive release suggesting that a strong number
would be good for risk generally and prompt dollar sales, adding that a
weak number would prompt a knee jerk buying of dollars on risk aversion
but if seen would support a Romney win and could provide for risk
appetite when the analysts give their view (funds already seen
switching out of dollars after the recent debate). Ahead of this we have
German FinMin Schauble speaking at a Berlin Capital Club breakfast
(0630GMT). Offers $1.3023-32, stronger toward $1.3050. Bids $1.3010/00.
EURO-DOLLAR: Early dip into Europe probed for stops below the overnight
Asian base at $1.3010, as well as the NY pullback low off $1.3032 at
$1.3008, the rate touching $1.3006 before picking up fresh demand. Rate
currently trades around $1.3014. Asia high $1.3023, NY high $1.3032,
with talk of stops building into $1.3030/40.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3100 Option expiry
$1.3086 Tech 76.4% $1.3173-1.2804
$1.3030-50 Medium offers/$1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/$1.3050 expiry
$1.3032 Thursday Oct4 high (NY)/61.8% $1.3173-1.2804
$1.3023 Int.Day high Asia/$1.3020 Option expiry
$1.3000 ***Current mkt rate 0725GMT Friday $1.3000 Option expiry
$1.2994 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3010 $1.2980/70 Medium demand/$1.2975 Option expiry
$1.2960/50 Stops/$1.2950 Option expiry
$1.2920/00 Medium demand/$1.2900 Option expiry
$1.2870-50 Stops
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6193, off recovery highs at $1.6203, with rate
recovering off a pullback low of $1.6180 into the close. Rate met
resistance at $1.6196 in early Asian dealing before drifting off to
$1.6184, before it settled between $1.6188/95 through an otherwise
subdued, pre-US employment Report, session. Euro-sterling was contained
by stg0.8035/43, as rate consolidated another extension to its recovery
that had seen rate post intraday highs Thursday of stg0.8052. Little on
the domestic calendar with moves to come from headline comments out of
the Eurozone ahead of the day's key event, the US Employment Report. A
strong number expected to provide an added boost to risk and should
allow cable to edge higher, though again it would be seen driven by
stronger euro-dollar demand, which in turn would continue to lift
euro-sterling. A weak number expected to prompt knee jerk risk aversion
but demand expected to quickly emerge into any resulting dip. Demand
remains at $1.6180/70, more into $1.6150. Resistance $1.6200/10, a break
to open a move toward $1.6250 ahead of $1.6270/80.
YEN: Dollar-yen built off a band of support from Y78.08/40 and reached
Y78.72, helped by recovering daily studies, before pulling back.Bulls
attention now turns to the 100-day moving average and Bollinger band top
as well as to the base of the Ichimoku cloud at Y78.83/91.
Euro-yen also sees daily studies recover, including a bull-cross in
the daily stochastic study and recovering momentum. The move pushes over
the 200-day moving average, which turns initial support at Y101.76 and
turns bull's attention to a 61.8% retracement of the Sep pullback at
Y102.25 ahead of a minor resistance line from April highs, coming in at
Y102.99.
BOJ: The conference comes as the BOJ voted unanimously to leave the target of
its financial asset-buying program at Y80 trillion after raising it from
Y70 trillion about two weeks ago. The board also decided unanimously to
keep its zero interest policy, leaving its target for the overnight
interest rate among commercial banks at zero to 0.1% since October 2010,
when it lowered it from 0.1% as part of "comprehensive monetary easing."
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 30.71 points, or 0.44%, at
8863.30. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
1.75 points at 737.13. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
968.3 bn shares, with 142 issues higher, 64 lower and 19 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday extending
their gains from the previous session. Spot gold ended Thursday's
session $12.40 higher at $1790.40/oz after comments from the ECB hinted
that new bond purchases may be on the way. Prices in the precious metal
followed the euro higher as the currency continued its upwards momentum
after ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the euro was
irreversible. Spot gold prices have remained in a narrow range so far
this morning, with the market in consolidation mode ahead of key US jobs
data due later today at 1230GMT. The precious metal has posted an
11-month high this morning, picking up from a session low of $1790.30/oz
to an intra-day high of $1796.10/oz. Prices remain fairly well
underpinned despite the US dollar tentatively recovering some of its
losses observed during the previous session. Spot gold now trades at
$1792.20 a troy ounce, up $1.80 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading marginally lower Friday after
recovering some of the sharp losses seen during Wednesday's rout.
November WTI futures ended Thursday's session $3.57 higher, or 4.1%, at
$91.71 a barrel after prices staged a recovery amid rising hostilities
between Syria and Turkey spurring supply concerns. Oil prices also
received a boost from some strength observed in the euro after ECB
President Mario Draghi said that the common currency was "irreversible".
The US dollar also remained weak after Draghi's statements which helped
underpin oil prices for the remainder of the session. November WTI
prices have been tied to a narrow trading range so far this morning
ahead of key US employment data due later today at 1230GMT. WTI has
edged its way back from an intra-day high of $91.62 to hold at session
lows of $91.29, with the market currently attempting to remain in
consolidation mode trading $91.38 a barrel, down 33 cents on the
session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading modestly
higher Friday extending their gains from the previous day. November
natural gas futures ended Thursday's session 1.1 cents higher at $3.406
per million British thermal units (Btu) after slipping to an intra-day
low of $3.36 right after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
report, which showed that domestic gas inventories rose last week by 77
bln cubic feet to 3.653 trillion cubic feet. Natural gas prices continue
to remain underpinned by weather forecasters predicting below-normal
temperatures for most of the lower 48 states over the next 6 to 10 days,
with market participants expecting a colder start to the winter to
provide a boost for prices. November natural gas futures have been held
in a narrow range so far this morning, advancing from an intra-day low
of $3.400 to a high of $3.430, with the market currently remaining near
session highs currently trading $3.429 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There are no sovereign bond issuance planned
Friday, which has been completed for this week and totals E13.163bln vs
E20.207bln issued last week. To re-cap, on Tuesday Austria sold E500mln
of 1.95% Jun 2019 RAGB at average yield 1.326% and covered 4.05 times,
and sold E700mln of 3.15% Jun 2044 RAGB at average yield 2.88% and
covered 2.0 times. On Wednesday Portugal completed E3.757bln in an
exchange offer were is bought 5.45% Sep 2013 OT and sold 3.35% Oct 2015
OT. On Thursday Spain allotted E1.997bln 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono at average
yield 3.956% and covered 1.98 times, E1.285bln 3.30% Oct 2014 Bono at
average yield 3.282% and covered 2.03 times and E710mln 5.50% Jul 2017
Obli at average yield 4.766% and covered 2.47 times. France also sold
E1.381bln 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT at average yield 1.29%, covered 3.82 times,
E4.805bln 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT at average yield 2.28%, cover 2.15 times
and E1.785bln 4.50% Apr 2041 OAT at average yield 3.17%, cover 2.34
times.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct -- Possible Moody's Spain ratings action (due anytime October)
- Oct 5 Spain PM Rajoy, Italy PM Monti, French Pres Hollande to meet
- Oct 5 Italy dollar bond redemption for $2.5bln
- Oct 8 Slovenia Presidential elections
- Oct 8 Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 9 EcoFin Meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 10 German BOBL auction
- Oct 10 Spain Rajoy to meet France Hollande in Paris
- Oct 12 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.3bln
- Oct 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E7.0bln
- Oct 15 Italy BTP redemption for E18.373bln
- Oct 16 Spain T-bill auction (12-/18-month)
- Oct 17 German Shatz auction
- Oct 18 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
- Oct 18 ECB meeting, Draghi press conference in Frankfurt
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
11:00 Euroland --> PKB K/K II kwartał
11:00 Euroland --> PKB R/R II kwartał
12:00 Niemcy --> Zamówienia w przemyśle M/M
12:00 Niemcy --> Zamówienia w przemyśle R/R
14:00 Polska --> Rezerwy walutowe
14:30 USA --> Średnia płaca godzinowa
14:30 USA --> Średnia tygodniowa liczba godzin pracy
14:30 Kanada --> Zmiana zatrudnienia
14:30 Kanada -->Pozwolenia na budowę M/M
14:30 Kanada --> Pozwolenia na budowę R/R
14:30 USA --> Zmiana zatrudnienia w przemyśle M/M
14:30 USA --> Zmiana zatrudnienia w sektorze pozarolniczym M/M
14:30 Kanada --> Stopa bezrobocia
14:30 USA --> Stopa bezrobocia
21:00 USA --> Kredyt konsumencki
Przeczytanie powyższej wypowiedz może doprowadzić do błędnej oceny sytuacji, spowodować przecenienie własnych możliwości, czego konsekwencją mogą być błędnie podjęte decyzje. Ofiarami mogą paść początkujący jak i doświadczeni inwestorzy. Tak myślę!
