1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
To ja tak nietypowo może - co widzicie na pszenicy D1? Niby konsola, ale ostatnio wsparcie zostało lekko przebite, znowu sie do niego zbliżamy (tego wcześniejszego) i tak sie zastanawiam, konsola to czy flaga i potem odbicie w góre.
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Ja mam za to problem z określeniem sytuacji na AUDJPY D1, nie wiem czy to konsola? Jest w stanie ktoś określić w którą stronę to może zmierzać przez następne parę dni?
EUROPE: Wednesday morning sees the release of the final September
services PMI across Europe. At 0713GMT, Spanish data is released,
followed by Italy at 0743GMT, France at 0748GMT and Germany at 0753GMT.
Final eurozone PMI is released at 0758GMT. Further eurozone data
at 0900GMT sees the release of August retail sales numbers.
EUROPE PRESS: The European Commission will urge member countries to
sign binding contracts with Brussels, committing them to detailed fiscal
reform, FT reported, citing a draft EU agenda that would increase the
bloc's control over national economic policies. If adopted, the plan
could help to meet demands in Germany for tighter control over the
economies of highly indebted countries such as Italy and France, it
says.
SPAIN: Underlining Spain's unemployment problems, 15,000 people queued
for 150 jobs at John Deere's new plant in the Madrid suburbs, the
Telegraph says.
UK PRESS PIMCO boss Bill Gross warns that the UK is part of a "ring of
fire" of indebted nations and around stg 990 bn of saving in spending
need to be found in the nest 5/10 years. Gross places the UK in the
"ring" with the US, Japan, France, Spain and Greece.
UK PRESS: Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, is set to appear before the
UK Parliamentary Committee investigating banking standards on Oct 17,
the Telegraph notes.
US: The U.S. kicks off at 1215GMT, with the release of the September ADP
National Employment Report, the week's first look at the job market.
While ADP is always worth watching, the results can widely differ
from the official payrolls number on a month-to-month basis. Non-farm
payrolls are expected on Friday at 1230GMT. With the election looming
large, employment data takes on a more meaningful aspect. However, with
the election falling on Tuesday Nov 6, there will be one more set of
employment data due after this week's numbers. At 1400GMT, the September
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index numbers are released. The ISM
non-manufacturing index is expected to fall slightly to a reading of
53.5 in September after rising in August. The index rose modestly in
August and has remained generally above the manufacturing
reading in recent months. Also at 1400GMT, the September Help-wanted
Online index will hit screens, while at 1430GMT, the EIA Crude Oil
Stocks for the Sept 28 week are released.
US: (2) At 1800GMT, the latest FOMC meeting minutes are released. While
the meeting's outcome was itself a milestone, the minutes could provide
a window into the shift of opinion among Federal Reserve members, as
many commentators have for years questioned the Fed's unwillingness to
take a more aggressive position on persistently high unemployment. Last
on the calendar at 2359GMT, the first of this year's presidential
debates is to be aired on CNBC, with President Obama and former Mass.
Governor Mitt Romney set to debate the economy. With a little over a
month to go, the lates WSJ/NBC poll shows the Obama ticket holding a
narrow lead over the Romney camp by 49% to 46%, tighter than the
5-point lead Obama enjoyed in the September poll.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2917 having corrected off a session high
of $1.2968 as market reacted to comments from Spain's Rajoy that a
request for aid was not imminent. The rate touched an early high of
$1.2919 into Asia before turning lower, the move down influenced by
heavy sales of Aussie as this currency reacted to the release of weak
domestic data and softer than forecast non-mfg China PMI. US name profit
take sales of euro-Aussie added to the weight as euro-dollar sank to an
initial low of $1.2901. Rate jumped back to $1.2915 as euro-Aussie
demand emerged into this rate's dip, but risk aversion acted to counter
and press rate down to session lows of $1.2893 before settling around
$1.2900 into Europe. Bids reported in place to $1.2885/80, with stops
positioned below. Offers are reported in place above $1.2925. Eurozone
services PMI data due out this morning ahead of EMU retail sales though
traders highlight US data as having more interest, namely ADP jobs data
at 1215GMT and US non-mfg ISM at1400GMT ahead of Friday's key US jobs
report.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals) $1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/Offers to $1.3050/$1.3050 Option expiry
$1.3020 Minor offers $1.2990/300 Medium offers/$1.3000 Option expiry
$1.2970/80 Strong offers $1.2971 Sep25 high
$1.2968 Tuesday Oct2 high $1.2925/40 Offers scattered between/$1.2925 Option expiry
$1.2921 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2890 ***Current mkt rate 0630GMT Wednesday
$1.2885 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.2893 $1.2880 Tuesday Oct2 low/Strong demand/Stops
$1.2860/50 Medium demand/$1.2850 option expiry
$1.2835/30 Medium demand $1.2823 Tech 200-dma
$1.2804 Monday Oct1 low/Strong bids into $1.2800/$1.2800 expiry
$1.2750 Option expiry
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6132 after pulling back from a session
recovery high of $1.6188 as risk appetite was bruised by Spain PM Rajoy
comments that Spain asking for aid was not imminent. Cable touched an
early high of $1.6134 into Asian trade before turning lower, taking
direction from a negative react in Aussie to release of weak domestic
data and softer than forecast China non-mfg numbers. The risk related
sales pressed rate to $1.6121 before rate met decent demand into the
dip, the buying taking the rate to an overnight high of $1.6140 before
it settled back between $1.6125/30 through Asian afternoon trade and
into Europe. Euro-sterling consolidated Tuesday's rally to stg0.8018,
with trade contained within a stg0.79965-0.8007 as it pivoted
stg0.8000. UK services PMI due at 0828GMT will provide the morning's
domestic interest, with Eurozone services and EMU retail sales also of
interest. US ADP and non-mfg ISM ahead of Friday jobs report will also
be of interest. Cable bids $1.6110/00 ahead of $1.6085/80. Resistance
$1.6170/75 ahead of $1.6190/00.
KIWI: The kiwi is at $0.8258 vs $0.8274 U.S. close, unperforming this
morning compared to other majors after showing a lot of resilience
yesteray in the face of drop in the aussie. At Fonterra's global trade
auction overnight, dairy prices fell 0.9% on a trade-weighted basis,
after rising in 4 consecutive auctions prior to that. The kiwi/aussie
cross rose to a one-year high of around A$0.8060 yesterday but is down
to A$0.8047 in line with the weakness in the kiwi. BNZ forex analyst
Mike Jones says the RBA's pre-emptive rate cut leaves him more
confortable with long-held view that the cross will trend higher
into year-end with a target of A$0.8200.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading just above unchanged levels Wednesday
after ending flat the previous day. Spot gold ended Tuesday's session
$0.60 lower at $1774.70/oz with prices failing to make an impression
beyond Monday's high of $1791.20, the highest level seen since last
November. Some sluggish physical demand for the precious metal is
pinning prices in a holding pattern after some recent gains posted from
the stimulus fever provided by the US Federal Reserve last month. Gold
prices are attempting to consolidate amid the absence of a fresh
catalyst, with many market participants awaiting further developments
for the path that will be taken surrounding Spain's bailout plan, now
centre stage of the ongoing Eurozone debt crisis, after the country's PM
Mariano Rajoy denied a report of an imminent request for a bailout. Spot
gold prices have been tied to a narrow range so far this morning, edging
higher from lows of $1771.35 to an intra-day high of $1775.50/oz. Metals
brokers report limited flow so far, with reports of a South Asian
reserve manager showing some buy interest early on. Gold last $1774.40.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading just below unchanged levels
Wednesday after falling for a second consecutive session the previous
day. November WTI futures ended Tuesday's session 59 cents lower at
$91.89 a barrel, after supply data showed US crude stockpiles climbed
for a fourth week. WTI futures fell around 0.4% after data released by
the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that inventories rose less
than expected last week, adding 462,000 barrels, against market
expectations for a build of 1.5mln barrels. Focus now turns to the
release of the weekly estimates from the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) for the week ending Sep 28, due to be published
later today at 1430GMT. WTI prices have been tied to a narrow range
during Asian traded hours this morning, picking up from a session low of
$91.51 to post an intra-day high of $91.82, with the market currently
trading just below unchanged levels at $91.77 a barrel, down 12 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading modestly
lower Wednesday after posting another set of gains the previous day.
November natural gas futures ended Tuesday's session up 5.1 cents, or
1.5%, at $3.531 per million British thermal units (Btu) after advancing
overnight to a fresh 2012 high of $3.546 per mln Btu. Front month
futures have now extended their rally to six straight sessions as flows
continue to speculate on rising demand for gas-fired heating as some
colder weather approaches. Forecaster MDA EarthSat expects some colder
than normal temperatures in the Midwest, East Coast and South over the
next six to ten days which could trigger an early start to the heating
season. In its winter forecast, released on Tuesday, MDA EarthSat added
that it expected relatively normal winter temperatures across the
majority of the country. November natural gas futures have cooled off
from their overnight levels, paring back slightly from a high of $3.523
to hold at a session low of $3.496, with the market currently trading
$3.506 per mln Btu.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Eurozone sovereign T-bill issuance has been
completed for this week, with E14.5bln in total allocated by
Netherlands, France, Belgium, and EFSF, vs E20.9bln last week. To recap
on Monday Netherlands sold E1.31bln 3-month DTC at average yield -0.047%
and sold E1.19bln 9-month DTC at average yield -0.013%. In the
afternoon, France sold E3.993 3-month BTF at average yield -0.017%,
E1.693bln 6-month BTF at average yield -0.009% and E1.295bln in 12-month
BTF at average yield 0.025%. On Tuesday Belgium sold E1.758 3-month
T-bill at average yield -0.003% and sold E1.254bln 6-month T-bill at
average yield 0.017%. Finally the EFSF sold E1.99bln new 3-month Bill at
average yield -0.0454%. In terms of Eurozone Sovereign T-bill issuance
planned for next week we have Germany, France, Greece, Ireland, and
Italy and could total E21.5bln.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: There are no sovereign bond issuance planned for
Wednesday, but Portugal will perform an exchanged offer where it will
buy 5.45% Sep 2013 OT and sell 3.35% Oct 2015 OT at 0930GMT. So far this
week, on Tuesday Austria sold E500mln of 1.95% Jun 2019 RAGB at average
yield 1.326% and covered 4.05 times, and sold E700mln of 3.15% Jun 2044
RAGB at average yield 2.88% and covered 2.0 times. Looking ahead Spain
will be tapping 3-year benchmark 3.75% Oct 2015 Bono, 2-year 3.30% Oct
2016 Bono and 5-year 5.50% Jul 2017 Obligacion, for an indicative amount
of E3.0bln to E4.0bln on Thursday. Also on Thursday France will tap,
4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, issue new 10-year benchmark 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT and
tap 40-year benchmark 4.50% Apr 2041 OAT for between E7.0 and E8.0bln.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Oct -- Possible Moody's Spain ratings action
- Oct 4 ECB meeting, press conference
- Oct 4 Spain, France bond auction
- Oct 5 Italy dollar bond redemption for $2.5bln
- Oct 8 Slovenia Presidential elections
- Oct 8 Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 9 EcoFin Meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 10 German BOBL auction
- Oct 10 Spain Rajoy to meet France Hollande in Paris
- Oct 12 Greek T-bill redemption for E1.3bln
- Oct 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E7.0bln
- Oct 15 Italy BTP redemption for E18.373bln
- Oct 16 Spain T-bill auction (12-/18-month)
- Oct 17 German Shatz auction
- Oct 18 EU Leaders Summit, Brussels
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
Jakoś podejrzanie to wygląda na H1 Edek. Dzisiaj by zrobili drugie ramię mimo słabej Hiszpanii i Włoch a jutro w dół...
Tyle że Draghi ostatnio wyciągał E/U mega do góry..
Chwilowo jestem z boku.
decydujace odbicie czy wracamy czy nurek - wg h1
, a wg. mnie jesteśmy w punkcie wyboru kierunku, obstawiam na up, chociaż aud, nzd, gbp vs usd idą w dół
