1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EU: At 0530GMT, the French detailed Q2 GDP data is released.
German data is released at 0600GMT and includes German August retail
sales and August import prices. Back in France, at 0645GMT, the Jul-Aug
PPI data, Jul-Aug consumer spending and the France 2Q '12 Maastricht
debt data are released.Spanish September flash HICP data is released at 0700GMT
At 0745GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to give a
speech at a business conference in Berlin.
More European inflation data at 0900GMT, with both EMU and Italian
September flash HICP data expected.
ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen is to participate in a
discussion entitled "Money Growth Without Consideration," from 1100GMT.
At 1300GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble IS to speak at A
conference organized by the Aspen institute, in Berlin.
FRANCE: President Hollande is set to unveil the 2013 Budget, seen by
some analysts as the most important budget for the Republic since the
80's.
SPAIN: With the Spanish bank stress test results due today, it is likely
that will trigger the latest Spain ratings announcement from Moody's. In
June, Moody's said they would announce on Spain"within three months"
setting a deadline of end-September. With the outcome of the stress test
results being one of the main "wait and sees" needed by Moody's, an
announcement is likely some time after European markets close. Moody's
currently rates Spain Baa3, one notch above junk, and on review for
possible downgrade.
SPAIN: Late Thursday, US ratings agency Egan Jones cut the
rating of KO Spain from CC+ to CC.
GREECE: Greek coalition leaders have agreed on a "tweek" to the E13.5 bn
austerity package, eKathimerini reports, noting a slight switch from
spending cuts to revenue raising measures. However, eKathimerini says
the "agreement" still needs to approval of the Troika.
BUNDS: Dec bund futures open 11 ticks lower at 141.46.
UK: The release of the John Lewis Sales numbers for the Sept 22
week, released just before 0600GMT. Also at 0600GMT in the UK, the
initial report on the LIBOR reforms will be released. A press conference
follows at 0850GMT. At 0830GMT, UK July Services data will be released.
At 1000GMT, the August Land Registry House Price Index will hit screens.
UK PRESS: Chief Investment Officer of Jupiter Asset Management, John
Chatfield Roberts warns inflation rising is "inevitable" and could be
running at double-digit levels with 5 years, the Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: The Daily Telegraph warns of another rocky period for UK high
street retailers as the quarterly rent bills become payable this
weekend.
US index futures are trading modestly higher in Asian trade
Friday. The S&P Dec mini was last trading 1.75 points higher at 1442.75,
with the Nasdaq Dec mini 1.0 point higher at 2815.0. Dow futures are
also higher, up 11 at 13425.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2915 after rate had bounced back from
initial Spain Budget react lows of $1.2829 to $1.2928 as market
perceived that the austerity measures announced would leave open the
door to Spain asking for bond buy aid from the ECB without further
austerity requirements. Attention however now turns to today's Spain
bank risk assessment with most expecting to gauge reaction on a E60bln
capital shortfall. A slow opening in Asia saw rate trade restricted to
$1.2910/20 before rate marked lows at $1.2908 and bounced. US name
demand provided the initial lift, with two European names then cited for
extending the recovery to $1.29425, tripping some minor stops placed
above the NY high at $1.2928. Rate found support at that NY high before
settling around $1.2935 into Europe. Offers are reported to begin from
above $1.2950, with stops placed on a break of $1.2955, though a move
above here to meet further sell interest into $1.2975. Support seen back
at $1.2910/00. Apart from Spanish bank stress test results market will
watch Germany Ifo (0800GMT) with a possible Moody's Spain review due.
MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/Offers to $1.3050
$1.3020 Minor offers $1.2990/300 Medium offers/$1.3000 Option expiry
$1.2975 Medium offers/$1.2971 Sep25 high/$1.2980 Stops
$1.2960 Tech 38.2% $1.3173-1.2829/Stops $1.2960/70
$1.2950/55 Medium offers
$1.29425 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2934 ***Current mkt rate 0636GMT Friday
$1.2925 Minor demand
$1.2910/00 Medium demand/$1.2908 Int.Day low Asia $1.2885/80 Medium demand/$1.2890-75 Option expiries
$1.2870 Minor stops
$1.2829 Thursday Sep27 low $1.2825 Tech 200-dma/Stops
$1.2800 Medium demand/Stops/Option expiry
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6236 after bouncing back from a post Spain
Budget announcement low of $1.6173 to $1.6244, the move tracking
euro-dollar's reaction. Rate drifted off to a session low of $1.6227
(23.6% $1.6173-1.6244) in Asia before picking up fresh demand. The
recovery was aided by a strong bounce in euro-dollar, the rate moved up
to an initial high at $1.6258 before extending to $1.6264 into the
European open. Euro-sterling trade through Asia was contained by
stg0.79525-0.7962. All week market talk has been about today's ECB fix
(1215GMT) and the fixing of the EU CAP payment to the UK (around
E3.5bln). This known interest has been seen providing sterling with some
added buoyancy though expect some volatility with this interest
possibly opposed by end month European sovereign interest coming the
other way, apart from other market participants' manipulations. BOE FPC
press statement due at 0930GMT provides domestic interest though Spain
bank stress test results (possible Moody's review of Spain), Germany Ifo
to provide outside influence. Cable offers $1.6260/70, $1.6300/10.
YEN: Dollar-yen broke below Y77.50 as early Europe took their seats,
with follow through sales taking rate to extended lows of Y77.44.
Traders note decent demand sitting into Y77.40 but stops are said to be
building further below. Some Asian market chatter suggesting a major
Asian sovereign has been selling dollar-yen through their afteroon,
ahead of the European open. Rate currently trades around Y77.45.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Friday's
session lower. The Nikkei 225 was lower by 79.71 points, or 0.89%, at
8949.9. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by
8.47 points at 737.12. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
1.053 bn shares, with 29 issues higher, 184 lower and 10 unchanged.
GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading marginally higher Friday extending
their sharp gains posted during the previous session. Spot gold ended
Thursday's session $24.5 higher at $1777.25/oz as prices reacted
positively to Spain's budget plan, whilst a rise in oil prices also lent
some support for the precious metal. Commodity prices in general have
continued to drift higher as the market appears to have given the
Spanish austerity measures the benefit of a doubt for now. Gold prices
have remained firm this morning consolidating the sharp gains from
yesterday, with prices also underpinned by the US dollar remaining on
the defensive so far this morning. Markets may turn more volatile later
on in the session as quarter end draws closer. Spot gold has remained in
positive territory with prices tied to a fairly narrow range, advancing
from a session low of $1776.05 to a high of $1782.40, with the market
currently seen trading $1781.60 a troy ounce, up $4.35 on the session.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading in positive territory Friday
extending their overnight rally. November WTI futures ended Thursday's
session $1.87 higher, or 2.1%, at $91.85 a barrel, the biggest one-day
gain since Aug 3. Oil prices have advanced in tandem with other risk
assets after Spain unveiled a crisis budget based mostly on spending
cuts that many saw as a step towards a bailout. Initial market reaction
appear to have given the Spanish budget the benefit of a doubt for the
time being. Oil prices are also receiving some support via continuing
supply risk in the Middle East and geopolitical tensions. WTI prices
have been in consolidation mode for much of the morning and have been
tied to a fairly narrow trading range as market participants await the
European markets reaction to the Spanish austerity measures and also the
Spanish bank stress test results due later today. November WTI has edged
higher from lows of $92.06 to trade an intra-day high of $92.47, with
the market currently seen trading $92.28 a barrel, up 43 cents on the
session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex November natural gas prices are trading around
unchanged levels Friday after posting gains for three consecutive
sessions. November natural gas futures ended Thursday's session up 8.2
cents, or 2.6%, at $3.297 per million British thermal units (Btu) after
advancing late to a new 2012 high of $3.318. The front month contract
has now risen 16.2% over the last three sessions. Prices continue to be
driven by follow through technical buying after recent sharp gains
fuelled some of the upside, with the market also advancing despite a
moderately bearish weekly inventory report. The three day move higher
has also seen prices move into overbought territory, with the 14-day
relative strength index (RSI) climbing to around 78%, its highest in
almost three months. Natural gas prices have been in consolidation mode
so far this morning, picking up from a session low of $3.285 to
intra-day highs of $3.303 and now trades near Thursday's close at $3.296
per mln Btu.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Sep 28 Spain Bank Recapitalisation announcement
- Sep 28 French 2013 Budget Announcement
- Sep 28 Eurozone flash HICP data
- Sep 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.5bln
- Sep 30 Ireland bond redemption for E18.4mln
- Sep 30 Spain deadline for Moody's downgrade review (end Sep latest)
- Oct 2 French President to meet Finland PM in Paris
- Oct 2 Austria Bond Auction
- Oct 4 Spain bond auction
- Oct 5 Italy dollar bond redemption for $2.5bln
- Oct 8 Slovenia Presidential elections
- Oct 8 Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 9 EcoFin Meeting in Luxembourg
- Oct 10 German BOBL auction
- Oct 10 Spain Rajoy to meet France Hollande in Paris
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
A mozie będzie podobnie ?
Gorszy jest jednak niestety układ średnich, który również może sugerować dalszy spadek. Takie przecięcie może też oznaczać dołek w trendzie wzrostowym. Ot, takie dywagacje nt prawej strony wykresu. Dopóki się nie stanie to lewą stroną to teoria pozostanie tylko teorią. A gra i pozycje to już co innego
Powodzenia na dzisiejszej sesji
Nie masz wymaganych uprawnień, aby zobaczyć pliki załączone do tego posta.
Dzisiejsze, bogate kalendarium wydarzeń gospodarczych, należy uzupełnić jeszcze o dwie pozycje. W piątek zostaną opublikowane wyniki audytu hiszpańskich banków. Będzie to drugi, bardziej szczegółowy, ich audyt. W lipcu Eurogrupa wstępnie zatwierdziła do 100 mld EUR na ratowanie hiszpańskich banków. O tym, ile dokładnie ma wyniesie ta pomoc zdecydują właśnie wyniki audytu. Pierwszy, przeprowadzony jeszcze w czerwcu audyt, sugerował konieczność wsparcia banków kwotą 15-25 mld EUR w optymistycznym scenariuszu i 51-62 mld EUR w pesymistycznym. Obecnie szacuje się, że drugi audyt wskaże na potrzebę wsparcia banków kwotą około 60 mld EUR.
Innym wydarzeniem piątku będzie to, że to ostatni dzień roboczy w tym miesiącu i w III kwartale br. To może sprzyjać procesowi „strojenia okien” na giełdach, co miałoby pozytywne przełożenie również na inne rynki.
XTB.pl
Będzie odbicie od 1.2900
Ostatnio zmieniony 28 wrz 2012, 10:14 przez ForexTig3r, łącznie zmieniany 3 razy.
Przedstawione, poglądy, oceny i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów autora i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji. Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte i z wykorzystaniem wniosków w nich zawartych, ponosi inwestor. subsilver2趋势线
