DayTrading 24.09.2012

[ForumBot]

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Regulamin DT:

1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)

Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum

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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GOLD

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

OIL: Crude futures are trading lower Monday, with the front-month WTI
contract lower by 79 cents at $92.10, having traded a session range at
$91.78 to $93.18.


EUROPEAN STOCKS: Major European bourses are initially seen trading lower
on Monday. Spreadbetters Cantor Index are calling the FTSE lower by 45
by 20, the DAX down 35 and the CAC down 26.


GREECE: A weekend report in Der Spiegel suggests the Greek short-fall is
nearer E20 bn as opposed to the stated E13.5 bn, although the story has
been "rebuffed" by Athens, eKathimerini reports. However, eKathimerini
says around a third of the E1.35 bn in austerity measures still need to
be agreed between the IMF nad the Greek government.


FOREX: Major forex pairs are mixed in Asian trade, with the euro giving
up ground on fresh concerns over Spain and Greece. Euro-dollar edged
higher from the getgo, touching an early high at $1.3003 on the back of
reports in weekend press that EU finmins were looking to lever the size
of the ESM. However, the pair gave up ground on concerns over Spain and
Greece. The pair slid in a near straight line to touch a low at $1.2928
after stops at $1.2940/50 were triggered, before recovering to $1.2948
on short-covering. Traders note said bids were noted at $1.2915/20 and
at $1.2900. Offers are seen from $1.3005/10. Dollar-yen was trading at
Y78.08, towards the lower end of the session's Y78.01 to Y78.28 session
range. Bids at Y78.00 are initially offering support, with further bids
at Y77.75/80. Stops are also reported around the Y77.50/60 level. Offers
are initially reported at Y78.50, with exporter offers layered to
Y79.00. Euro-yen was last trading at Y101.08, rallying off the lows as
dollar-yen fell.


EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY Friday at $1.2980, opening Asia unchanged
before edging up to mark session highs at $1.2991 in opening trade. Rate
reversed off highs as Asian equity markets opened with a negative tone
leading the way into general risk aversion. Euro-dollar squeezed down to
challenge the $1.2966/65 area where it met decent support, giving way
on a third test as market targeted reported stops below $1.2950
($1.2956 Friday low). Added weight from triggered stops provided the
weight to extend lows to $1.2928 before it settled back around $1.2950
($1.2954 50% of last fall from $1.2980-28 where recovery efforts have
so far peaked). A fairly light data calendar today though Germany Ifo at
0800GMT will provide focus. Apart from this, headline trading expected
to dominate as traders try to gauge risk. Developments in Spain
and Greece to be watched. Support remains between $1.2930/20, a break
below to open a deeper move toward $1.2800. Resistance seen into
$1.2955, a break to open a move back toward $1.2980.


MNI EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Heavy, Stops Below Initial Support
RES 4: $1.3385 - High Mar 27
RES 3: $1.3284 - Monthly high May 1
RES 2: $1.3156 - Falling LT daily trend line off May 4 2011 highs
RES 1: $1.3086 - High Sept 19
LATEST PRICE: $1.2947
SUP 1: $1.2922 - Low Sept 20
SUP 2: $1.2873 - Low Sept 13
SUP 3: $1.2827 - 200 day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2761 - Hourly support Sept 11
COMMENTARY: The Sept 19 highs remain key resistance with immediate
focus remaining on retests of the 200-DMA until a close above is seen.
The pair continues to remain heavy with stops noted below the Sept 20
lows and model selling expected on a close below the 200-DMA. Daily Slow
Stochastic, RSI, Momentum and DMIA studies continue to unwind their
previously overbought condition and have room to move.

[marekdt]

Witam traderów, Dane z Australii dobijają ryzyko... pary z dolarem polecą.
Edeka szukałbym po 1.2830 w okolicach 200MA gdzie może być popyt.

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

MNI CABLE TECHS: Classic Topping Pattern
RES 4: $1.6616 - High Aug 19 2011
RES 3: $1.6451 - High Aug 29 2011
RES 2: $1.6365 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.6310 - 2012 high Sept 30
LATEST PRICE: $1.6216
SUP 1: $1.6144 - Low Sept 14
SUP 2: $1.6082 - Hourly support Sept 12
SUP 3: $1.5962 - Low Sept 10
SUP 4: $1.5913 - 38.2% retracement of $1.5270-1.6310 move
COMMENTARY: Cable continues to exhibit classic signs of topping
with the spike to marginal fresh 2012 highs to end the week lacking
follow through and closing just above the days lows. Combined with very
overbought and now correcting daily RSI, Slow Stochastic, Momentum and
DMIA indicators, this sees initial focus remain on retests of the
initial support at $1.6144.


MNI DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Layers Of Resistance Y78.98-79.33
RES 4: Y79.33 - 200 day moving average
RES 3: Y79.05 - 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Y78.98 - 100 day moving average
RES 1: Y78.45 - High Sept 20
LATEST PRICE: Y78.13
SUP 1: Y78.02 - Low Sept 20
SUP 2: Y77.66 - 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Y77.26 - Low Sept 13
SUP 4: Y76.04 - 2012 low Feb 1 2011
COMMENTARY: USD/JPY starts the new week having retested the Sept 20
lows with stops expected below. Layers of resistance remain in the
Y78.98-79.33 region including the 100-DMA, 200-DMA, Sept monthly highs,
Ichimoku Cloud and a major daily falling trend line. While this region
caps focus will remain on retest of the Sept monthly lows. Daily tech
studies are at very neutral levels and are no longer an issue.


MNI EURO-YEN TECHS: Test Of Y100.60 Expected To Start The Week
RES 4: Y104.44 - High May 7
RES 3: Y103.84 - Monthly high Sept 17
RES 2: Y102.53 - Hourly resistance Sept 19
RES 1: Y101.78 - 200 day moving average
LATEST PRICE: Y101.15
SUP 1: Y100.60 - Hourly low Sept 13
SUP 2: Y99.54 - Low Sept 14
SUP 3: Y99.02 - 100 day moving average
SUP 4: Y97.92 - Low Aug 28
COMMENTARY: With consecutive closes below the 200-DMA to end the
week and correcting overbought daily tech studies, the pair remains
heavy with initial support noted just below market. A close below
Y100.60 sees initial focus turn to retests of the Y99.00-50 region and
then the key Y97.90-95 region below. Topside EUR/JPY needs to close
above the Sept 19 hourly resistance to shift focus higher.


GERMANY: Wires report comments from German Deputy FinMin, confirming
weekend press reports that there are discussions ongoing as to whether
to leverage the ESM.


FX: Option expiries for today's 1000EDT cut,
* Euro-dollar; $1.2925, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3125
* Dollar-yen; Y77.50, Y78.00, Y78.45
* Cable; $1.6150, $1.6250, $1.6300
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8000
* Aussie; $1.0475, $1.0500

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

BELGIUM AUCTION PREVIEW: Belgium kicks off supply on Monday with
taps of 5-year benchmark 3.50% Jun 2017 OLO63, 7-year benchmark 3.00%
Sep 2019 OLO67, 4.25% Sep 2021 OLO61 and 10-year benchmark 4.25% Sep
2022 OLO65 issues for between E2.0-E3.0bln indicative size. According to
MNI calculations Belgium has so far sold E29.79bln worth of OLO bonds
year-to-date and has completed 77.9% of its E38.25bln OLO issuance for
2012. With up to E3.0bln expected to be sold on sep 24, this will leave
around E5.5bln of funding left to raise across 2 auctions scheduled for
Oct 29 and Nov 26. For comparison the 3.50% 2017 OLO63 trades 1.28%
mid-yield and last sold on Jul 30 for E1.14bln at avg yield 1.34% and
covered 1.76 times. The 3.00% 2019 OLO67 trades at 2.02% mid-yield and
was last sold on Sep 3 for E1.41bln at avg yield 2.004% and covered 1.48
times. The 4.25% 2021 OLO61 trades at 2.41% mid-yield and was last sold
on Nov 2011 and not comparable. The 4.25% 2022 OLO65 trades at 2.63%
mid-yield and was also last sold on Sep 3 for E1.08bln at avg yield
2.584% and covered 1.88 times. Auction results are due around 1010GMT.

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

GOLD: Spot gold prices are trading in negative territory Monday after
trading up to its highest level in seven months during the previous
session. Spot gold ended Friday's session $4.50 higher at $1773.10/oz
after posting a high of $1787.20, the highest level seen since Feb 29.
Prices in the precious metal have become subject of a correction lower
this morning amid a weak showing from the euro across FX markets as
fresh concerns mount over Spain and Greece. Reports of a rift over the
weekend between Germany and France on when to centralize banking
supervision has also unsettled markets, with risk appetite lacking in
Asian markets this morning which is expected to continue going into the
European session. A stronger showing from the US dollar is also
hampering gold prices so far this morning, with prices correcting quite
sharply lower from highs of $1772.45 to hold at a session low of
$1757.70 a troy ounce. Spot gold currently trades $1761.40/oz, down
$11.70 on the session.

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: The Deutsche Finanzagentur is
planning to issue E3.0bln of a new 12-month Bubill maturing Sep 25, 2013
on Monday. German Bubill yields remain in negative territory even after
German constitutional court ruling on ESM and market expectations that
Spain will ask for assistance next month. In the grey market, the new
12-month Bubill is seen trading around -0.035% off recent lows. At the
last 12-month auction back on Aug 27, the treasury sold E1.975bln at an
average yield of -0.0246%, cover of 2.0 times, with E1.025bln or 34.2%
held back for secondary market operations. At last months sale the
12-month Eonia rate was around 0.055%, therefore giving a spread of
-8bps, currently 12-month Eonia is seen around 0.051% level. There will
be a Bubill redemption of E3.0bln this week, leaving net cash flow flat.
Results due to be announced shortly after 0930GMT.

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

FRANCE T-BILL AUCTON PREVIEW: France's Agence France Tresor (AFT)
re-opens E3.4-E3.8bln tap of a 3-month BTF maturing Dec 20, issue
E1.3-E1.7bln new 6-month BTF maturing Mar 21, 2013, and re-open
E0.9-E1.3bln tap of a 12-month BTF maturing Sep 19, 2013 on Monday. This
will be the last time the Dec 20 BTF will be tapped and could lead to
increased demand, while the new 6-month BTF will be welcomed by the
markets. Yields have fallen marginally since the last auction as talk of
negative deposit rates from ECB officials have got the market
speculating if and when ECB will cut rates. If the AFT allocate at the
top end of the target range, then, with a BTF redemption of E9.192bln on
Sep 27, this will leave potential net cash flow negative to the tune of
E2.4bln. For comparison on Sep 17, the AFT sold E3.978bln 3-month BTF at
an average yield of -0.012% with cover of 2.77 times, E1.293bln 6-month
BTF at an average yield of -0.004% with cover of 5.83 times, and
E1.694bln 12-month BTF at an average yield of 0.029% with cover of 2.68
times. Results due to be announced around 1255GMT.

[sonny]

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2980/00, likely buy stops through 1.3010 ahead of more offers 1.3040/50. Bids 1.2920/40 and 1.2900/10 sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2855/65 and tech support at 200 day MA at 1.2828

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6200/20, sell stops below through 1.6180 ahead of more bids 1.6160/70 also with sell stops below. Offers 1.6250/60, possible buy stops above ahead of stronger offers 1.6280/00.

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8000/05 (50% of 5-14 Sept rise 0.8001) and 0.8050/55, Bids/tech 0.7975/80 (38.2% retracement of July 22-Sept 14 rally 0.7977) ahead of 100 day MA at 0.7965.

USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/10(semi official, Kampo) sell stops through 77.95 below, ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers from 78.20 up to 78.50, and 78.80/00 (78.85 cloud base, 100 day MA 78.98), buy stops through cloud top 79.27

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.85/95, likely sell stops below ahead of bids100.50/60 and 100.00/10, sell stops below each. Offers 101.50/60 Tech res 101.78 (200 day MA.) Offers 102.00/10 possible buy stops above and through 102.40

AUD/JPY: Bids 81.00/10 likely sell stops below and through 80.80 ahead of tech supp 80.64 (100 day MA). Offers 81.50/60 and 81.90/00 (81.72-55 day MA, 200 day MA 81.97), buy stops through 82.00 ahead of more offers 82.20/30.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0400/10 from sovereigns and possible SNB via EUR/AUD (55 day MA at 1.0402). Sell stops through 1.0380 ahead of more bids 1.0350/60, more sell stops below. Offers 1.0445/55 (RBA commercial, funds and models) and from 1.0475 up to 1.0500 with large buy stops above ahead of further offers 1.0540/50

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2400/10,(200 day MA 1.2408) and 1.2375/85, likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 1.2300/10. Offers 1.2440/50 and larger up at 1.2490/00

[ziom_szybkiego_lopeza]

MNI EURO-DOLLAR: Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3075/85 Strong offers/$1.3076 61.8% $1.3173-1.2920, Sep19 high
$1.3045/50 Strong offers
$1.3048 Friday Sep21 high/$1.3047 50% $1.3173-1.2920
$1.3020 Minor offers
$1.3000 Medium offers
$1.2990 Int.Day high Asia
$1.2980 Medium offers
$1.2954 Recovery high off $1.2928 (50% $1.2980-28)
$1.2934 ***Current mkt rate 0629GMT Monday
$1.2928 Int.Day low Asia
$1.2920 Strong demand/Thursday Sep20 low/Stops
$1.2900 Medium demand on approach/Stops
$1.2890/85 Medium demand/Stops $1.2885/80
$1.2855/50 Strong demand/Pullback low seen into FOMC
$1.2829 Tech 200-dma