Hello
EURO SUMMARY: The euro started in Asia this morning at $1.3439 after a $1.3415
to $1.3547 overnight range in the US. Fed QE tapering views and reports that the
ECB might consider lowering the deposit rate to -0.1% fuelled last night's euro
weakness and kept the euro trading with a heavy tone today. The pair fell to a
$1.3420 low soon after Japanese stocks opened but made no attempt to take out
the $1.3415 overnight low. Euro-dollar remained under pressure but spent the
rest of the morning shuffling between the $1.3420 low and $1.3430. It was last
at $1.3425. The pair's correction lower after failing to hold above the 21-day
moving average at $1.3544 has seen the focus shift down to a deeper pullback
that would initially target the $1.3295 Nov 7 low, and then the 200-day moving
average below at $1.3218.
EURO-DOLLAR: MNI Fundamental levels (orders, options, technicals)
$1.3585-600 Medium offers/$1.3600-05 Stops
$1.3540/50 Medium offers
$1.3520 Medium offers/$1.3519 61.8% $1.3584-1.3414
$1.3500 Medium offers/$1.3499 50% $1.3584-1.3414
$1.3460-80 Medium offers
$1.3442 Int.Day high Asia
$1.3429 ***Current mkt rate 0655GMT Thursday
$1.3414 Int.Day low Asia (NY $1.3415)
$1.3405 61.8% $1.3295-1.3584
$1.3400/390 Medium demand/$1.3390 Praet react lows Nov13
$1.3385 Tech 100-dma
$1.3360/50 Medium demand/$1.3357 T-line off $1.2755(Nov7)
$1.3320-00 Medium demand/$1.3318 Friday Nov8 low (post NFP)
$1.3295-94 Thu Nov7 low-50% $1.2755-1.3833/$1.3290 Stops
$1.3277 76.4% $1.3105-1.3833
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed in NY at $1.6104 after rate had been pressed down
from session highs of $1.6178, initially tracking euro-dollar's slippage on
reaction to headlines that the ECB could be considering easing the discount rate
to -0.1% (currently 0.0%), which saw it ease to an initial low of $1.6121 before
Fed Minutes release (seen hawkish as suggested tapering could begin in next few
meetings, though data dependent) shoved cable to lows of $1.6087. Rate recovered
back above $1.6100 into the close with sterling proving more resilient than the
euro vs the dollar, with the cross able to extend its recent easing to
stg0.8326. The cross closed in NY at stg0.8345 and consolidated through Asia
between stg0.83415-0.8349 leaving cable to track further euro-dollar slippage.
Cable eased from an early Asia high of $1.6108 to $1.6072, opening Europe around
$1.6082. EZ flash PMI readings will provide the general morning focus, with
domestic interest turned to public finance data at 0930GMT ahead of CBI trends.
US jobless claims and PPI provide early afternoon interest. Cable support seen
into $1.6060 ahead of stronger interest between $1.6050/45. Resistance $1.6110
($1.6113 38.2% $1.6178-1.6073), ahead of $1.6130.
YEN SUMMARY: The Japanese currency today fell to a 2-month low against the US
dollar, as last night's FOMC minutes said QE tapering was likely in the coming
months on better data. Dollar-yen opened at Y100.03 this morning after the
overnight low of Y99.83 while euro-yen started at Y134.43. Dollar-yen headed
north from the start of the session, and climbed above Y100.20 soon after
Japanese stocks opened. The pair extended the gains around mid-morning and rose
to Y100.53. It then stayed near that high through the morning, seeing only minor
pullbacks to around Y100.30. Euro-yen was also held up through the morning,
holding a Y134.67 to Y134.96 range. Yen pairs witnessed another rise back to the
morning highs after the BOJ's decision to keep its policy target unchanged
earlier, before it eased again. Dollar-yen was last at Y100.40 while the cross
was at Y134.75. Dollar-yen earlier broke through a rumored Y100.50 barrier while
support is seen at Y99.53, a 23.6% retracement of Y96.57-Y100.44. Medium term
outlook seen constructive while the pair remains above the Y98.67/72 area, which
is the 100-day moving average and the Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud,
respectively.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japanese stock indices ended Thursday sharply higher, helped
by the weaker yen. The Nikkei 225 gained 289.52 points, or 1.92%, to stand at
15,365.60. The broader-based TOPIX was higher by 11.63 points at 1245.06. Nikkei
market breadth saw 172 issues trade higher, 41 lower and 12 unchanged. Total
volume was 1.43 billion.
AUSSIE: The Australian dollar started today's session at $0.9334 and spent the
initial hours of the morning in a $0.9323 to $0.9335 range, pinned down after
overnight comments from the IMF, saying the aussie was overvalued. Aussie-dollar
then began to head south again about an hour before the release of HSBC's China
flash PMI, from around $0.9330 and it then went through $0.9300 for a low of
$0.9294. The Nov flash PMI came in at 50.4, just under the final October reading
of 50.9. Aussie-dollar inched up a bit soon after the market digested details of
the release but the rebound has been extremely limited. Aussie-dollar was last
at $0.9297, compared with last night's US close of $0.9334. The immediate focus
for the aussie would be RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' speech later today, entitled
"The Australian Dollar: Thirty Years of Floating." The market is expecting that
Stevens would once again attempt to talk down the exchange rate. The 100-day
moving average at $0.9279
remains the immediate focus with a close below to end aussie's bullish
aspirations and initially targeting a test of the Sept 5 low ahead of key
support at $0.8850-95 region.
OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL),
* Dollar-yen;
Y99.00(VL), Y99.25, Y99.50, Y99.60, Y99.80, Y99.90,
Y100.00(VL),
Y100.10, Y100.30, Y100.60,
Y101.00(VL)
* Euro-yen; Y135.50, Y136.05, Y136.50, Y137.50
* Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3405, $1.3425, $1.3450, $1.3480, $1.3520/25, $1.3565,
$1.3600(L)
* Cable; $1.5900, $1.6145, $1.6200
* Euro-sterling; stg0.8425
* Sterling-yen; Y161.00, Y162.00
* Dollar-Swiss; Chf0.9020
* Euro-Swiss; Chf1.2325
* Aussie; $0.9300, $0.9325, $0.9350, $0.9360, $0.9375, $0.9400, $0.9440
* Aussie-yen;
Y93.00(L), Y94.00,
Y95.00(L)
* Kiwi; $0.8300
* Dollar-Canada; C$1.0450
wersja poglądowa AT 
21-Nov-2013 7:02
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Collapse From Channel Base Sends Studies Lower
RES 4: $1.3544/45 21-DMA, Channel base from Jul 10 low
RES 3: $1.3519 55-day moving average
RES 2: $1.3479 5-day moving average
RES 1: $1.3442 Low Nov 4 & hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.3417
SUP 1: $1.3400 High Aug 8
SUP 2: $1.3383/85 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832, 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.3312 200-week moving average
SUP 4: $1.3293 50.0% of $1.2755-1.3832
COMMENTARY: Euro-dollar attempted a break above the $1.3550 level but bulls
failed to sustain the rally into the channel (base now key resistance at
$1.3545), weakening daily studies further. Weekly studies are also bearish and
monthly studies appear to be turning south, the downside channel breakout
targets $1.3000 in the long-term but ahead of here bears look to break the Jul
2012 support line at $1.3271 and below is the redrawn line at $1.3023.
21-Nov-2013 7:10
CABLE TECHS: Daily Studies Slip After Failed Rally Above $1.6150
RES 4: $1.6260 High Oct 1
RES 3: $1.6203/08 High Sept 30, Daily Bolli band top
RES 2: $1.6149 High Nov 18
RES 1: $1.6107/09 5-DMA, Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: $1.6084
SUP 1: $1.6063/64 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260
SUP 2: $1.6033 55-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
SUP 4: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
COMMENTARY: Cable tested ground above the $1.6150 level but closed lower as
bears begin to eye 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260 once more, initial support alongside
21-DMA at $1.6063/64, respectively. A break below targets tests of 38.2% level
at $1.5943 before key support at $1.5894 - Oct 16 low and double-bottom base. A
close and hold below here targets measured move to $1.5528 while studies slide.
However, bulls look to close above $1.6150 to encourage retest of $1.6260.
21-Nov-2013 7:28
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bounce From Y100.00 Targets Y101.39
RES 4: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
RES 3: Y101.39 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
RES 2: Y100.19 Weekly Bolli top
RES 1: Y100.87 High Jul 19 & Daily Bolli top
LATEST PRICE: Y100.68
SUP 1: Y99.99/100.01 High Sept 12, Hourly low
SUP 2: Y99.57/67 Low Nov 19, High Nov 13
SUP 3: Y99.11 Lows Nov 12 & 13
SUP 4: Y98.88/96 Daily Kijun, 21-DMA
COMMENTARY: Dollar-yen holds above the Y100.00 level and now breaks above the
Nov 15 high of Y100.44, we look for bulls to close above here to sustain the
rally - however most studies are overbought adding downside risk. Initial
resistance now at Y100.87 - the Jul 19 high and daily Bolli top, break above
here targets Y101.39 and Y101.53, the 76.4% and Jul 8 high. If resistance caps
at these levels we see bears retesting the Y100.00 level as support.
21-Nov-2013 7:47
EURO-YEN TECHS: Fades From Y135.95 - Key Support At Y134.15
RES 4: Y136.70 2% 21-day MA envelope top
RES 3: Y136.13 Daily Bollinger band top
RES 2: Y135.95 High Nov 20
RES 1: Y135.51 High Oct 22
LATEST PRICE: Y135.19
SUP 1: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high & Hourly low
SUP 2: Y134.01/15 High Nov 12, 38.2% of Y131.22-135.95
SUP 3: Y133.80 May 22 reversal high
SUP 4: Y133.58/59 Daily Kijun, 50.0% of Y131.22-135.95
COMMENTARY: Euro-yen posts another outside day after bulls tested resistance
just below Y136.00 and then faded down to support around the Y134.00 level.
Daily studies now look a little weak and may reverse from overbought territory
adding pressure to the downside - however bulls currently are recouping some
losses and eye a retest of Y135.95. Key support at Y134.01/15 - Nov 12 high and
38.2% of Y131.22-135.95, ahead of here is the Jan 2010 reversal high at Y134.38.
)