1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
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Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
kk.dreamer pisze:na usdcad d1 pinbar czyli polecimy w dół... kusząco sie zapowiada
pamiętaj że może jeszcze przetestować górę tak jak na EUR/CAD trzeba uważać żeby za wcześnie nie wejść z S
Przedstawione w powyższym opracowaniu treści sporządzone z najwyższą starannością i według najlepszej wiedzy autora. Prezentowane w celach informacyjnym i edukacyjnym i nie powinny być wyłączną podstawą podejmowania decyzji. Nie stanowią rekomendacji
kk.dreamer pisze:wiem, wiem, naPewno jeszcze podejdzie ale ostatecznie dół. Trza teraz obserwować, kiedy się załadowac w S
To nie jest prawdziwy pinbar. Bardzo slaby close nie swiadczy tutaj o sile niedzwiedzi. Nie rozumiem jak mozesz byc pewien spadkow podczas tak silnego gornego momentum.
Pinbar powinien swiadcyc o sile i przedstawiac nie udana probe przebicia istotnego obszaru. WTedy przynajmniej wiadomo kto jest po drugiej stronie transakcji :
EUROPE: There is a heavy calendar Tuesday, with data on both sides of the
Atlantic and a slew of European central bank speakers on the schedule. The
calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the latest German
construction orders data. There is a raft of French data released at 0645GMT,
with The French June business climate indicator, along with the manufacturing
and service sector sentiment indices due. The Business confidence Indicator is
expected to tick up to 93 from May's 92. Also at 0645GMT, French May housing
starts/permits data will be published. At 0700GMT, Spanish May PPI numbers will
be released, and are seen up 0.1% on month, but down 0.3% on year.
EURO SUMMARY: Euro-dollar closed Monday at $1.3122 after rate had recovered off
a session low of $1.3059 to $1.3144 before it drifted off into the close. Moves
were driven by UST yields prompted by Fed speaker comments, Fisher highlighted
as he likened the 'big money' players to feral hogs as they tended to test for
any weakness (linked to tapering speculation). Rate edged back up to $1.3136,
the move aided by euro-yen demand as the Japanese currency was sold after the
fix on Nikkei recovery. However, this bounce in Asian equities proved short
lived as the Shanghai index began to move lower which saw euro-dollar pressed
back down to $1.3111, with rate holding within an outside $1.3110/20 range as we
head into Europe. French confidence index, Spanish PPI and Italian retail sales
due for release during the morning but none seen as major market movers. US
durable goods data at 1230GMT seen as the main focus, followed at 1400GMT by US
consumer confidence, with the US data effect on UST yields to drive. Euro-dollar
offers from $1.3145 and extending to $1.3175, but buy entry interest mixed in on
a break above $1.3160. Support $1.3110/00, with $1.3082 (100-dma), $1.3081
(55-dma) and $1.3074 (200-dma) providing renewed support as rate closed above.
STERLING SUMMARY: Cable closed Monday's NY session at $1.5436 after it had seen
a decent recovery off intraday lows of $1.5343 to $1.5465 before it drifted off
into the close. Rate was driven higher as the dollar pared earlier gains as UST
yields eased. Rate marked session lows at $1.5429 in opening Asian trade before
rate was lifted to $1.5455 as it tracked euro-dollar, which in turn was led by
post fix euro-yen demand. However, Shanghai Index slippage started to weigh back
on risk and pressed cable back to retest those earlier lows where the rate again
met decent support. Recovery efforts met headwind supply above $1.5440 but
underlying positive tone kept rate buoyed into Europe. Euro-sterling, which had
seen extended lows of stg0.8482 in NY Monday , consolidated this move between
stg0.8493/0.8502 through Asia, holding just off lows into Europe. Another light
data calendar in the UK with attention on equities and UST yields for direction.
On this note this afternoon's US durable goods data at 1230GMT, followed by US
consumer confidence at 1400GMT will provide main focus. Cable resistance seen
between $1.5455/60, a break to open a move toward $1.5470/80 ahead of
$1.5495/00. Support $1.5420, $1.5405/00.
YEN SUMMARY: Dollar-yen closed in NY Monday at Y97.73 after rate had seen three
stop loss runs lower, the rate eventually posting lows at Y97.21, before it
rebounded in a euro-yen led move to Y97.87. Rate came under fresh sell pressure
into early Asia as traders positioned for an expected negative Nikkei open, as
well as being a Goto-bi day with expected sales to be seen at the fix. Nikkei
did open lower but dollar-yen met decent demand around Y97.50 (despite the
Nikkei breaking under 13000) before rate bounced, aided by a Nikkei recovery as
relief was felt in early trade that the Shanghai Index hadn't come under any
major pressure at its open. Dollar-yen recovered to Y98.06, aided by traders
that gunned for euro-yen stops above Y128.50 (rate trading up to Y128.67),
before selling emerged post fix to press dollar-yen down to Y97.28, with the
Shanghai Index leading as it picked up downside momentum. Dollar-yen recovered
to Y97.58, settling around Y97.40 into Europe. Equity tracking will move over to
UST yield plays into the afternoon with focus on US durable goods and consumer
confidence data.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stocks are lower Tuesday, as the market
was unable to . The Nikkei 225 was lower by 93.44 points, or 0.72%, at 12696.34.
Into the close, the broader-based TOPIX was lower by 6.27 points at 1083.37.
Market breadth indicators saw 15 issues higher, 206 lower and 4 unchanged.
Preliminary volume stood at 1.683bn shares, significantly lower than in recent
sessions.
KIWI: Touched a session low of $0.7713, and is now at $0.7723 (vs $0.7752 U.S.
close), but not too far from June 21 low of $0.7685. Westpac currency strategist
Imre Speizer says kiwi's break below key $0.7800 is ominous and while bouts of
US economic weakness, which will question the Fed's tapering intention, should
provide temporary bounces during the months ahead, the trend is now firmly
negative. BNZ forex analysts are in the process of re-assessing their kiwi
forecasts but say lofty commodity prices, rising interest rates, bearish
speculative positioning, and healthy momentum in the NZ economy are all
supportive of the currency and they'd need to see these crumble before becoming
convinced the kiwi is heading down to $0.7000 and below.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Italy and the Netherlands come to the bond market in eurozone
Tuesday. The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) launches a new 5-year benchmark
1.25% Jan 2019 DSL bond via DDA for minimum size of E5.0bln size and Italy sells
a new zero coupon June 2015 CTZ for between E2.5bln-E3.5bln and also taps its
5-year 1.70% Sep 2015 BTPei, 15-year 3.10% Sep 2026 BTPei for between
E500mln-E1.0bln. Overall, sovereign bond issuance in the eurozone this week is
estimated to come in around E17.21bln vs E19.64bln sold this week. So far,
Belgium tapped its 1.25% June 2018 OLO69, 3.00% Sep 2019, OLO67, 2.25% June 2023
OLO68 and 4.50% Mar 2026 OLO64 issues for combined size of E2.708bln. Looking
ahead, Italy conducts its regular month-end auction, which includes tap of
benchmark 5-year 3.50% June 2018 BTP and a 10-year 4.50% May 2023 BTP for
between E2.0bln-E2.5bln size each. In terms of reinvestment flows, there are no
redemption payments and coupon payments from Belgium E0.4bln, Italy E0.1bln and
Austria E0.1bln -- to leave net cash flow negative to the tune of E16.6bln vs
-E18.4bln last week. For full details of forthcoming issues, please see eurozone
bond auction calendar & MNI Eurozone Net Cash Flow Matrix.
EUROZONE: Timeline of key events in the eurozone for next few weeks:
- Jun 25/26 Euromoney Global Borrowers Forum - inc eurozone debt chiefs
- Jun 25 ECB Draghi speaks at Economic Council for Germany in Berlin
- Jun 25 Italy CTZ/Linker bond auction for up to E4.5bln
- Jun 25 Greek Bond redemption for E49.7mln
- Jun 25 Spain 3-/9-month T-bill auction
- Jun 26 Italy T-bill auction
- Jun 27/28 European Council Summit
- Jun 27 Italy sells 5-/10-year BTPs for up to E5.0bln
- Jun 27 Germany June unemployment data
- Jun 27 EMU Jun business climate indicator/consumer confidence
- Jun 28 ECB announces 3-year LTRO repayment for following week
- Jun 28 Finland Treasury publishes quarterly review
- Jun 28 Italy T-bill redemption for E8.875bln
- Jun 29 Cyprus bond redemption for E1.889bln
- Jul 01 Lithuania takes over EU presidency
US: Timeline of upcoming key events in the US:
- Jun 25 IMF Chief Econ Blanchard at IIF in Paris at 0530ET
- Jun 25 May Durable Goods Orders, est +3% at 0830ET
- Jun 25 Apr S&P/Case-Shiller Index, est +1.3% at 0900ET
- Jun 25 May New Home Sales, est 460k at 1000ET
- Jun 25 June Consumer Confidence (CB), est 75 at 1000ET
- Jun 25 Tsy Cpn Purch 02/15/2036 - 05/15/2043 $1.25B-$1.75 billion
- Jun 25 UST auctions 4wk, $25Bn 52wk at 1130ET
- Jun 25 UST auctions $35Bn 2yr at 1300ET
- Jun 26 Fed Kocherlakota (non-voter) in Seoul at 0155ET
- Jun 26 1Q-13 GDP (3rd rev), est 2.4% at 0830ET
- Jun 26 NY Fed Pres Dudley on the job market for college grads in NY at 1000ET
- Jun 26 Feds Fisher (n-v) & Lacker (n-v) testify at House Finl Ctee at 1000ET
- Jun 26 Tsy Cpn Purch 08/15/2020 - 05/15/2023 $2.75B-$3.50 billion
- Jun 26 UST auctions $35Bn 5yr at 1300ET
- Jun 27 Jobless Claims for Jun 22, est 345k at 0830ET
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
dobre wejście z dobrego poziomu uj
Nikkei konsoliduje
Chiny może szukają (nieświadomie ) dogodnego miejsca do wzrostu wg zasady mocna laga up i down i trend
Ostatnio zmieniony 25 cze 2013, 08:14 przez pr7emo, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
:
dobre wejście z dobrego poziomu uj 
) dogodnego miejsca do wzrostu wg zasady mocna laga up i down i trend