1. W wątku DT omawiamy bieżąca sytuacje na rynku i to co dotyczy danego dnia. Od dłuższych prognoz jest dział Prognozy, komentarze, analizy
2. Zamieszczamy tylko i wyłącznie swoje analizy. Nie kopiujemy z innych serwisów.
3. Komentarz do własnej analizy nie może mieć charakteru rekomendacji. (to nie jest dział z sygnałami)
4. Kłótnie, ataki na innych użytkowników są niedopuszczalne.
5. Nie zaśmiecamy wątku. (wypowiedzi w stylu: "dałem S", "ja kończę na dziś" itp. jak i chwalenie się swoimi statami)
Nagminne łamanie powyższych zasad będzie skutkować nałozeniem zakazu pisania do końca bieżącego tygodnia.
Recydywa będzie karana ostrzeżeniami.
Przypominam że ponadto obowiązuje Regulamin Forum
Przedstawione poglądy, oceny, opinie i wnioski są wyrazem osobistych poglądów
autorów i nie mają charakteru rekomendacji do nabycia lub zbycia albo
powstrzymania się od dokonania transakcji w odniesieniu do jakichkolwiek walut.
Poglądy te jak i inne treści nie stanowią "rekomendacji" lub "doradztwa"
w rozumieniu ustawy z dnia 29 lipca 2005 o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi.
Wyłączną odpowiedzialność za decyzje inwestycyjne, podjęte lub zaniechane
na podstawie poniższych analiz ponosi inwestor.
EUROPE: The European calendar kicks off at 0610GMT, with the release of
the German GfK consumer confidence data, following after yesterday's
weaker than expected IfO reading. The is followed at 0645GMT, with the
release of French August housing starts/permits and the September
service and manufacturing sentiment indices. Spanish August PPI data is
expected at 0700GMT, followed at 0800GMT, with the release of the
Italian September consumer confidence survey. Back in Europe, at
1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is slated to give keynote address at
the "Day of the German Industries", in Berlin.
SPAIN: Spain's centre right government faces a backlash from some of its
own conservative supporters if it eases financial conditions in order to
calm Canalonian sepratist tensions, the FT reports.
FINLAND: With Finnish municipal elections due in October, the FT says
the "True Finns" party are again rattling the anti-bailout, euro-sceptic
sabre nd again look set to have a big influence on the national debate.
UK PRESS: UK retailer JJB Sports went into administration Monday, with
up to 4000 jobs at risk, the Telegraph reports.
UK PRESS: Singapore government-owned investment fund Temasek Holdings
has been sounding out potential buyers for its Gbp6 bln stake in
Standard Chartered, potentially reigniting talk of a takeover of the
UK-headquartered bank, The Financial Times reports. Temasek has been
judging buyer interest for its 18% stake in recent months, although
momentum for a sale fell last month as StanChart's shares lost 20% on
the day it was accused by a US regulator of breaching US sanctions on
Iran. After settling the dispute, the bank's share price has rebounded.
US: The US calendar kicks off at 1145GMT with the release of the
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales for the Sept 22 week. At 1230GMT, Canadian July
Retail trade numbers are released. At 1255GMT, the US Redbook Average
numbers for the Sept 22 week are released. The July S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price Index is released at 1300GMT. The recent strength in home
sales has been foreshadowed to a large degree by stronger home builder
confidence and housing construction starts over the past few months. It
may be that with August data, sales will finally begin to gain real
traction in spite of continued weakness in the jobs market. Home prices
will likely lag behind the climb in sales, though National Association
of Realtors' chief economist Lawrence Yun noted in the existing home
sales release that a dwindling inventory of foreclosed homes is putting
upward pressure on prices generally. The July FHFA Home Price Index
follows at 1400GMT.
US: (2) US data continues are 1400GMT, with the release of the September
Consumer Confidence (CB) data. Consumer confidence received a surprise
boost in the initial University of Michigan survey and the IBD/TIPP
economic optimism index in September. This may have been due to a
temporary surge following the Democratic National Convention, according
to economists interviewed by MNI. Also at 1400GMT, the September
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index data is released. The day's final data
release is expected at 1430GMT, with the release of the September Dallas
Fed Svcs Outlook Survey
US: (3) At 1530GMT, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Charles
Plosser speaks to the CFA of Philadelphia and Bond Club of Philadelphia.
After, he will answer questions from the audience and media. At 1730GMT,
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner speaks to the Clinton Global Initiative
in New York. World Bank Pres. Jim Yong Kim, Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton, President Obama and GOP Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney are
also scheduled to appear.
EURO-DOLLAR: Closed in NY at $1.2932, just off recovery highs of $1.2937
after rate had seen lows in this session of $1.2891. Rate drifted down
to $1.2929 in early Asia before demand emerged to edge rate up to
pressure reported stops through $1.2940/50. Some corporate supply was
also seen in the area between $1.2945/50 but the demand from US and UK
names allowed rate to push on to $1.2953 before momentum faded. Risk
tone was given an early boost on the back of positive S&P futures,
though Asian equity markets were seen mixed. Rate drifted back to
$1.2932 before settling around $1.2935/40 into Europe. The dollar was
seen under pressure across the board, with dollar-yen able to extend its
recent slippage below Y77.80, though Tokyo traders have warned of
possible official action ahead of half year end (Citi suggest buying
Y77.70/60). German GfK provides early interest (0600GMT) following on
from Monday's disappointing Ifo, with ECB Draghi due to speak during
the morning will keep market headline watching. Euro-dollar offers seen
above $1.2965, heavier above $1.3010. Bids remain into $1.2890.
EURO-DOLLAR: Extends pullback lows to $1.2902, though seen settled back
round $1.2906 (76.4% retrace of $1.2891-1.2953). A break below $1.2900
to expose Monday's lows at $1.2891 with French name demand here
yesterday suggested to remain in place.
CABLE: Closed in NY at $1.6222, off highs of $1.6233 seen after rate had
recovered off session lows of $1.6181. Rate touched a low of $1.6220 in
early Asian trade before picking up demand, with risk given an early
boost as market took direction from positive S&P futures. Rate tracked
euro-dollar higher, moving up to session highs of $1.6237 after
tripping minor stops on the move above the NY high. Rate drifted off to
$1.6225 ahead of the European open with rate picking up fresh demand
into the new session, extending highs to $1.6240. Rate retains a firm
tone at posting. Offers seen placed between $1.6240/50 ($1.6246 50%
$1.6310-1.6181), a break here to open a move on toward $1.6280 (76.4%).
A break of this latter level to expose recent highs at $1.6310, though
expect offers to emerge ahead from around $1.6295. Support seen at
$1.6220 ahead of $1.6200 and $1.6180. A light UK data calendar, BOE
Fisher speaks at 0930GMT. Focus will be on Eurozone developments, with
ECB Draghi speaking this morning, and effects on general risk.
Euro-sterling was contained by stg0.7960-77.
YEN: Opened Asia just off NY lows at Y77.81, with early talk suggesting
the Y77.80 level was holding semi official demand. However, general
dollar sales eventually provided the weight to break under Y77.80, the
move extending recent lows to Y77.74. Rate retained a heavy tone through
Asia, though market seen wary of possible official activity. Japanese
traders have suggested the authority could be prompted into buying ahead
of this week's half year end, though others have suggested that while
any move lower seen orderly they will stand aside. Euro-yen took
direction from the easing in dollar-yen, with the overnight recovery in
euro-dollar reversed into early Europe which has taken the cross to
extended lows of Y100.32, having seen highs in Asia of Y100.83. Yen
remains the main gauge for risk, any aversion will see funds flow into
the Japanese currency, while any boost to take yen pairs higher.
JAPAN STOCKS CLOSE: Japan's benchmark stock indices ended Tuesday's
session higher. The Nikkei 225 was higher by 22.25 points, or 0.25%, at
9091.54. Just ahead of the close, the broader-based TOPIX was higher by
2.53 points at 756.21. Preliminary volume in the Nikkei stocks totalled
931.1 mn shares, with 85 issues higher, 115 lower and 25 unchanged.
OIL: November Nymex WTI prices are trading moderately higher Tuesday
attempting to stabilise above $92 after some sharp declines from the
previous session. November WTI ended Monday's session 96 cents lower at
$91.93 a barrel as renewed European debt anxiety resurfaced adding
pressure to oil prices. Weaker than expected German IFO data did nothing
to lift the mood as WTI hit lows of $91.06 a barrel, with a stronger
showing from the US dollar also contributing to weaker oil prices. This
morning, WTI prices are attempting to consolidate above $92 a barrel
ahead of weekly supply data. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is
due to release its inventory report later today, with market
participants of oil also focused on the US Energy Information (EIA) data
due on Wednesday. WTI prices have modestly climbed from a session low of
$91.95 to edge back higher to an intra-day high of $92.38, with the
November contract currently seen trading $92.11 a barrel, up 18 cents on
the session.
NATURAL GAS: Nymex October natural gas prices are trading in positive
territory Tuesday after falling for the first time in three sessions the
previous day. October natural gas futures ended Monday's session down
4.8 cents, or 1.7%, at $2.837 per million British thermal units (Btu)
after trading between $2.814 and $2.903. Record high supplies, mild
weather forecasts and some slowing demand sent prices moderately lower
after some gains of 4.5% were observed during the previous two sessions.
Natural gas prices continue to trade in a holding pattern ahead of the
next wave of supply data due later in the week. In terms of weather
forecasts, forecaster MDA EarthSat expects temperatures for the eastern
half of the nation to range from normal to above normal for at least the
next two weeks. October natural gas prices have been tied to a narrow
trading range so far this morning, paring back from highs of $2.870 to
hold at an intra-day low of $2.850 per mln Btu, with the market
currently trading $2.855.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: Spain comes to the sovereign T-bill market
Tuesday with plans to tap a 3-month Letra maturing Dec 14, and tap a
6-month Letra maturing Mar 15, 2013, for an indicative amount of
E3.0-E4.0bln. To recap on Monday Germany sold E1.173bln new 12-month
bubill at average yield -0.0184%. In the afternoon, France sold E3.798
3-month BTF at average yield -0.016%, E1.698bln 6-month BTF at average
yield -0.006% and E1.269bln in 12-month BTF at average yield 0.006%.
Still to come on Wed, Italy plan to issue E9.0bln new 6-month BOT
maturing Mar 28, 2013.
... zbieraj pips do pipa bo jak nie to z depo będzie lipa... G."niemiaszek"
ITALY AUCTION PREVIEW: Italy's Dipartimento Del Tesoro issues a new
2-year zero coupon Sep 2014 CTZ for between E3.0-E4.0bln and tap linker
issues 2.10% Sep 2016 BTPei and 2.10% Sep 2021 BTPei for between
E0.75-E1.5bln on Tuesday. Yield on the old 2-year CTZ has risen by 15bps
over the past couple of days, but remain way below July's high of over
5%. The grey market is indicating the new 2-year CTZ will come around
2.37% mid-yield. The May 2014 CTZ was last sold on Aug 28 for E3.0bln at
an average yield of 3.064% and covered 1.95 times. As for the BTP
linkers, 2.10% Sep 2016 BTPei is around 2.45% mid-yield and was also
last sold on Aug 28 for E455.1mln at average yield 3.69% and covered
2.34 times. The 2.10% Sep 2021 BTPei is around 3.60% mid-yield and was
last sold Mar 24 and therefore not comparable. There are no CTZ/BTPei
redemptions or coupon payments this week, and recent large falls in
yield could leave demand on the weak side, leading to the markets
looking for bigger concessions going into the auction. Results due to be
announced at 0915GMT.
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: Spain's Tesoro Publico taps 3-month
Letra maturing Dec 14 and re-open 6-month letra maturing Mar 15, 2013
for an indicative amount of E3.0-E4.0bln Tuesday. Yield on the 3-month
Letra has bounced higher by around 30bps since hitting recent lows last
week, and is currently seen at 0.95%, with signs the markets are losing
patience with the Spanish governments indecision on asking assistance.
Demand is expected to be solid as this will be the last time the Dec 14
Letra will be re-opened. As for the 6-month Letra, yield has risen by
around 16bps and is currently seen at 1.81%. With the Mar 15 Letra
scheduled to be tapped again in Dec and large outstanding amount of
E8.1bln, demand is expected on the weak side. Also affecting demand is
the fact that there is no Letra redemption this week, leaving cash flow
negative. For comparison, at the last 3-/6-month auction back on Aug 28,
the Tesoro sold E1.674bln 3-month T-bills at avg yield of 0.946% with
cover 3.35 times, and E1.933bln 6-month T-bills at avg yield of 2.026%
with cover 2.17 times. Results due to be announced around 0840GMT.
EURO-DOLLAR: Back above $1.2900, with traders confirming that move to
$1.2887 ran into European bank demand (suggested same name that placed a
base in the rate at $1.2891 Monday). Weak talk suggesting the semi
official had demand interest Monday around the same levels, though we
have seen no confirmation for that. Rate trades around $1.2910.
CABLE: The strong euro-dollar pullback eased cable off its early Europe
highs at $1.6240, though move down was viewed as reluctant, allowing
euro-sterling to make a show under stg0.7950. Cable found support at
$1.6217 (38.2% $1.6181-1.6240), with rate currently trading back at
$1.6233. Below $1.6217 and rate expected to meet further demand interest
dotted between $1.6210-1.6195 ahead of the $1.6180 area. Resistance
remains at $1.6240/50, with interim interest expected at $1.6235.
Będzie więcej QE3, ale program zostanie zakończony przed 2014
macroNEXT, 25.09.2012
John Williams, szef Fed z San Francisco twierdzi, że Fed rozszerzy program QE3 w przyszłym roku i zakończy go przed 2014.
Jego zdaniem Fed jest przygotowany do zakupu obligacji opartych o kredyty hipoteczne "tak długo jak to będzie konieczne" aby uzyskać "znaczącą" poprawę na rynku pracy. Oznacza to również, że Fed może rozszerzyć QE3 i dodatkowo włączyć do programu jeszcze "inne aktywa". Nie wyjaśnił jednak, co kryje się pod pojęciem "inne aktywa".
Przewiduje on, że stopa bezrobocia spadnie do poziomu 7,25 % przed końcem 2014 roku, a to jest poziom, który wg Fedu oznaczał będzie "znaczącą" poprawę.
"Jesli warunki poprawią się szybciej niż oczekiwaliśmy, zakończymy program wcześniej, ograniczając ilość bodźców monetarnych", powiedział Williams. "Jednak jeśli gospodarka nie będzie sobie radzić utrzymamy program tak długo jak to będzie potrzebne by uzyskać znaczącą poprawę na rynku pracy biorąc pod uwagę stabilność cenową", dodał.
Williams podkreślił, że ostatnie działania Fedu w zakresie polityki monetarnej mają "pomóc w osiągnięciu celu jakim jest maksymalne zatrudnienie i stabilność cenowa".
EURO-DOLLAR: Retains a heavy feel, with rate struggling to extend
recovery attempts too far away from early lows at $1.2887. European
demand noted into $1.2890/85 has provided a cushion though market is
aware of stops placed below, which extend through $1.2870. A break here
to open a deeper move toward $1.2855/50 with many traders highlighting
the 200-dma at $1.2828. Rate currently trades around $1.2902 at posting.
EURO-POLISH: Sharp euro-dollar slippage lifted the cross of Asian lows
in pre-european trade, extending gains to Pln4.1529. The pair met
resistance and aided by euro-dollar's bounce eased to Pln4.1470. Focus
turns to Retail Sales and Unemployment data for August released at
0800GMT, where analysts predict sales to rise 5.9% and the jobless
rate at 12.3%. In other news NBP Governor Belka is expected to speak at
a conference this morning. Traders suggest this is important especially
when markets are trying to assess timings of the first cut. Even more so
given the absence of one member (Gilowska), which again makes Belka's
vote more pivotal. Support seen from the Asian low at Pln4.1409, ahead
of Pln4.1335 (21 dma). Reported offers at Pln4.1690/00, a break opens
Pln4.1790/00 (Pln4.1795 - 20 Sep high). Rate last Pln4.1461.
CABLE: System buying in cable sees rate extend recovery above $1.6250,
the rate touching an extended high of $1.6251 and holding firm. Minor
resistance seen above $1.6260 with stronger interest seen into $1.6280
(76.4% $1.6310-1.6181).
kamasoni pisze:edek dzisiaj pięknie - co zejdzie poniżej 1.29 to pojawiają się kupujący i tak w kółko
do Fix EBC zobaczymy co pokażą
ponizej 12880 podobno duzo SL czeka
zobacz Czwartek analogia po zjezdzie na UE sesji ORGR i na sesji USA wyciagneli edzia pozniej skosne podbily wyzej a UE po sl w dol jazda teraz to samo wczoraj po zjezdzie na UE sesji USa podciagnela Edka pozniej skosne pomogly a na UE sesji w dol
Ostatnio zmieniony 25 wrz 2012, 10:17 przez Nowy123, łącznie zmieniany 1 raz.
teraz to samo